The 2020 Super Bowl pregame thread

[TB12TheGoat]

Winfield and AB expected to play of course. i really hope Whitehead can

 

[Kontradiction]

Winfield and AB expected to play of course. i really hope Whitehead can

I think he dislocated his shoulder, so that will be hard to see. If that’s the case, and he goes, he’s tough. But I don’t think he will last the game on it. Not with the way he hits.

 

[drewskie]

The Tampa pass rush will need to get home to Mahomes enough to force either a few mistakes and/or make him rush his decision making if they want a real chance of pulling off the upset. Easier said than done of course.

 

[sb1]

Would be fun to see another OT game where the Bucs score on the first possession and people whine that Mahomes didn't get the ball. Again.

 

[Guts]

The Tampa pass rush will need to get home to Mahomes enough to force either a few mistakes and/or make him rush his decision making if they want a real chance of pulling off the upset. Easier said than done of course.

Mahomes usually throws 2-3 INT worth balls a game the DBs have to make a play

 

[PATS16N0]

I feel like we’re in the Super Bowl and we didn’t even make the playoffs.

 

[drewskie]

Against the Saints in the 38-3 game, the use of playaction was a huge problem, as Brady was turning around and getting drilled without being able to process anything. They've moved away from playaction for the most part. I think it's a mistake to abandon it to this degree though. It seemed more like Payton/the Saints sniffed it out that was the bigger problem. They mainly run it now on 2nd and long, which doesn't really fool the defense anyway.

But the lack of creativity is utterly baffling. Despite that they're going to the Super Bowl, they've been incredibly inefficient on offense these last two games, and their insistence on the two-three yards then brick wall on first down approach is insane.

It's especially bad when they have two solid pass catching tight ends who also block on most running plays in Gronk and Brate. This team has remarkable depth and versatility to cause a lot of different problems for defenses.

Is there any rule against a shotgun formation on first down, still using big formation, and handing it off half the time? That would certainy seem to solve the issue of Brady's field vision and the other issue of the laughable predictability. They're literally running a binary system of "running personnel" on early downs and "passing personnel" on third down. You never see any motion like flexing Gronk/Brate out wide and clearing a linebacker away from the middle of field.

I'm not sure how their base formation on first down isn't shotgun with Brady-Fournette-Gronkowski-Evans-Brown-Godwin/Brate with Godwin and Brate rotating in and out. It's criminal to be approaching a Super Bowl and treating Antonio Brown like a situational player, going up against a team that's going to score 30+. With Evans and Brown split wide, defenses would have major problems selling out against the run; right now they just jam their linebackers and safeties into that dumbass big blocker formation with zero consequences for selling out.

Couldn't agree more. You have 3 stud WRs and Gronk. Open up the playbook. Throw more/play action on first downs.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Tampa should spend the entire two weeks having their front 7 practice containment and tackling without drawing a penalty. Mahomes is quick and slippery back there, and he'll undoubtedly try to roll out, where he's often dangerous. The game may rest of how Tampa does in ending plays when they have the chance. I expect they'll be in the backfield quite a bit.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Bucs should watch what the 9ers did in last year's Super Bowl before their 4th quarter collapse. I see the Bucs wanting the ball to open the game to try to score and set the tone.

Brady has 2 objectives:
1. Prevent Mahomes and the Chiefs from being the 1st Qb/team since the early 2000's Pats to repeat.
2. Win #7, hoist the Lombardi with Gronk and AB and stick it to Bill on national TV.

 

[TB12TheGoat]

Bucs should watch what the 9ers did in last year's Super Bowl before their 4th quarter collapse. I see the Bucs wanting the ball to open the game to try to score and set the tone.

Brady has 2 objectives:
1. Prevent the Mahomes and the Chiefs from being the 1st Qb and team since the early 2000's Pats to repeat.
2. Win #7, Hoist the Lombardi with Gronk and AB and stick it to Bill on national TV.

he already stopped Seattle from back to back. now he’s trying to stop a 3rd dynasty (rams, seahawks, chiefs)

 

[TheRainMaker]

he already stopped Seattle from back to back. now he’s trying to stop a 3rd dynasty (rams, seahawks, chiefs)

I fear if Brady doesn't stop the Chiefs, they will be the first team to 3 peat.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I fear if Brady doesn't stop the Chiefs, they will be the first team to 3 peat.

Ehhh...maybe. Mahomes is phenomenal, so of course they'll be in the mix. But this year (2020) was the one where they should be absolutey dominant, as they crammed in every possible player and delayed cap hits. 2021 they should still be pretty darn good but nothing like this year in terms of keeping every player they want; they'll have to some big cuts...some of their more middle-upper class players, not superstars. Mahomes cap hit is only $5M this year and $25M next year.

2022 is the year that they'll hit that big speed bump, unless they start getting some great bargain contracts and especially some major draft pick success (picking at the end of the first round.)

Their record suggests absolute dominance; their margin of victories and advanced stats suggests more of a "good, not close to historically good" roster with some pretty big holes.

We'll see.

 

[The Brandon Five]

Hopefully the Bucs are watching the tape from the first Chiefs/Raiders game this year.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Ehhh...maybe. Mahomes is phenomenal, so of course they'll be in the mix. But this year (2020) was the one where they should be absolutey dominant, as they crammed in every possible player and delayed cap hits. 2021 they should still be pretty darn good but nothing like this year in terms of keeping every player they want; they'll have to some big cuts...some of their more middle-upper class players, not superstars. Mahomes cap hit is only $5M this year and $25M next year.

2022 is the year that they'll hit that big speed bump, unless they start getting some great bargain contracts and especially some major draft pick success (picking at the end of the first round.)

Their record suggests absolute dominance; their margin of victories and advanced stats suggests more of a "good, not close to historically good" roster with some pretty big holes.

We'll see.

They clearly can turn it on when they feel like it. They're in control of almost every game. They are loaded on offense and have a good enough D. They remind me of the 2000's Pats as they miles ahead of everyone. Difference is, I think the Chiefs are built for a 3 peat. And if that happens, we Pats fans better start sweating on the Chiefs chasing the Pats 6 Lombardi's. And it won't take 20 years to do so.

 

[BobDigital]

I am going to definetly do a write up on this game, but I'm still trying to wrap my mind around the implications of losing Fisher for KC and what that means for them. The issue is there isn't much to compare it to. In these playoffs KC has played against the Bills (who rank 22nd in pressure rate) and Cleveland (who rank 24). The top pressure teams they faced this year since week 6 are...

The Broncos (9th) who they blew out with a interception returned TD and a kick return TD to help them get up 24-9 by half time, by which time the game was on cruise control. So you can't tell crap from that game.
The Raiders (16th) who they put legit 35 on.
The Broncos who the second time held them to 22. But that game had more to do with their red zone D than anything else.
The Dolphins (13th) which while KC led comfortably by the end gave them some trouble in the first half in particular. They turned the ball over a lot, but the Dolphins couldn't do much with it. KC needed a safety and punt return TD to hit 33. There were a lot of possessions in this game.
The Saints (5th) who KC scored 32 on. There were a lot of possessions in this game too. And the Saints definitely didn't play their best or take advantage of every situation (not that you usually do, but still),
The Falcons (14th) who gave them some serious trouble which they were able to over come late.
And of course the Bucs (3rd).

The problem with comparing these games is that frankly besides the pass rush the Broncos, Raiders and Falcons Ds aren't good. The Saints, Dolphins and Bucs are the only 3 teams they played since one of their first key starters went out that had a good pass rush and a good D. While KC was able to score in all 3 games, they were all high possession games with a fair amount of either punts or turnovers. All 3 opposing teams also had a slow start in the game offensively. Particularly the first half. If they had been able to get more points in the first half those games may well have come down to the wire. But who can say.

However, even with this info I have no idea how informative it is. In all of these games they had arguably their best OL man at the most important position (Fisher) which they now don't. The only thing I think I can say for sure is this. If you have a good pass rush and D, even if you can't limit KC below 30 you should be able to have more drives to keep up with them. But that was true even when they had Fisher. And in the playoffs we have not seen this team challenged by a legit pass rush and defense.

We saw last week how the story of GB's LT being out was down played in the media, but how vital it can be in an actual game.

 

[The Brandon Five]

The Tampa pass rush will need to get home to Mahomes enough to force either a few mistakes and/or make him rush his decision making if they want a real chance of pulling off the upset. Easier said than done of course.

I can't see them failing to do so. They did so a lot against a much more talented OL on Sunday.

KC has an RT starting at LT and a guard starting at RT against two great pass rushing OLBs (JPP Pro Bowl this year, Barrett a 2nd team All Pro last year). Beyond that, I expect Suh and Vea to wreak some havoc in the middle against an average interior OL.

 

[Lagaffe_07]

I think he dislocated his shoulder, so that will be hard to see. If that’s the case, and he goes, he’s tough. But I don’t think he will last the game on it. Not with the way he hits.

Well he was speaking to the media after the game in the post game press conference and it didn’t seem he was wearing a sling or anything. So will see

 

[The Brandon Five]

Hopefully the Bucs are watching the tape from the first Chiefs/Raiders game this year.

That game really came down to these two drives by the Raiders. A pick run back to the 2 yard line:


And then running out the clock after KC kicked off with 4 minutes to go:

 

[carmelo15]

Brady loves it too. He eats it for breakfast. lunch and dinner. If they blitz Brady a lot he will tear them apart.

He tore them apart when they went zone as well

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Can never count out brady but this will be incredibly tough. Kc this year is as good as it gets in this era. Began as favorites and the top team throughout(I think outside of the city of Pittsburgh most people realized kc was the legit best team by far even during the Steelers 11-0 run). And the coaching matchup is heavy in kcs favor. mBucs need to be in mahomes face all day and take advantage of those tackles. If Antonio can play that will be huge i think, him and Brady we’re starting to get it going down the stretch before the injury.