Spending On The Offense - Not Much

[mayoclinic]

Connolly has been a solid backup and has been used as a starter for years. You want to replace him by a player who has been cut several times by the patriots, is marginal at best, and has already been signed by San Diego. That won't work. We really need a RG and a backup center.

I hadn't noticed that McDonald had signed a futures contract with San Diego last week. My bad, and thanks for keeping me (semi-)honest.

FWIW, McDonald wasn't "cut several times" by the Patriots. He was signed in 2011 to the PS, promoted in December, started several games at center and did well, and played multiple positions as a reserve in 2012. He was a surprise cut in July because of injury, and never made it onto the field this year. I think he would have been a good low-cost depth signing with his versatility, but that ship has obviously sailed, at least for now. We'll see what happens this summer.

I have no problem with Connolly as a reserve, but I think he offers lots of room to upgrade at RG, and $4M is way too much to pay for a reserved guard/center. I think that Wendell is ok as a reserve/guard center, but I wouldn't pay him any more than reserve money, and I doubt he'll sign for that.

 

[mayoclinic]

I have it as the Pats currently have about $123M+ in committed cap money for 2014 (salaries and bonuses for 66 players totaling just under $118M, including the adjusted numbers for McCourty and Gregory, plus $5.6M in dead money). That leaves about $2M. They also have about $4M in carryover from $2013, which makes that figure about $6M, or about $8M if you use the higher projected cap number - a difference of $4 million.

You may want to update your cap page for 2014. You have $114,955,660 for our "total cap figure" right at the top of your table of players, which probably doesn't reflect the changes to McCourty and Gregory. I see that in the discussion above (which I missed; I used the number from the table) you list it as $117,955,660.

 

[patsfanincleveland]

The base case for TE is:

• Gronk
• High-pick rookie
• 1-2 JAGs

What is wrong with Hooman as First JAG?

If BB wants to go back to a 2 TE offense, three high quality TE's are needed.

 

[Fencer]

I have no problem with Connolly as a reserve, but I think he offers lots of room to upgrade at RG, and $4M is way too much to pay for a reserved guard/center. I think that Wendell is ok as a reserve/guard center, but I wouldn't pay him any more than reserve money, and I doubt he'll sign for that.

Isn't $2.5 million the correct way to think about Connolly?

 

[Miguel]

You may want to update your cap page for 2014. You have $114,955,660 for our "total cap figure" right at the top of your table of players, which probably doesn't reflect the changes to McCourty and Gregory. I see that in the discussion above (which I missed; I used the number from the table) you list it as $117,955,660.

Fixed. Good catch,

 

[mgteich]

This is a point that will come up over and over in the next two months.

Connolly's salary is $3M. The savings by cutting him is $2.5M ($3M less $500K for the bottom of the roster player who would replace him on the top 51 if he were cut).

It is reasonable to compare him to someone we might sign for $3M.

It is also reasonable to understand that the cap savings of cutting him and replacing him with one of our PS players is $2.5M.

Finally, it is reasonable to consider how much new money we are laying out, in this case $3M.
The cap savings could be zero, but it might still be right to cut a player. The savings could be zero because all remaining bonus money is accelerated.

For decision purposes, it is never reasonable to consider Connolly's total cap hit, which reflects deferred compensation.

Isn't $2.5 million the correct way to think about Connolly?

 

[mgteich]

Hooman is good enough as one of the two JAG backups.

If BB wants to go back to a 2 TE offense, three high quality TE's are needed.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

i didn't know the pats were near the bottom of the league with salary cap room. Lots of teams with 10-15+ millions

 

[mayoclinic]

i didn't know the pats were near the bottom of the league with salary cap room. Lots of teams with 10-15+ millions

Shocking given how cheap they supposedly are.

 

[Fencer]

i didn't know the pats were near the bottom of the league with salary cap room. Lots of teams with 10-15+ millions

The obvious explanation is that there aren't a lot of expensive players with contracts that ended this year. The first guys who come to mind who have their contracts ending are Talib, Spikes, Wendell, Edelman and Blount, and their aggregate 2013 earnings weren't very much. (By NFL starter standards, that is.) In particular:

• Talib -- middle-class starter; re-signing or replacing him would definitely cost more, although the contract could be back-loaded.
• Edelman -- JAG-pay starter; re-signing him would cost more; Reiss thinks if he isn't re-signed he'll be replaced with a middle-class vet.
• Wendell -- JAG-pay starter; re-signing or replacing him would cost more; there's an option of replacing him only with a JAG/rookie and squeaking by.
• Blount -- JAG-pay starter; hard to predict what he'll get after a good season, which ended with 2 great games and 1 lousy one. It's not obvious that he needs to be kept, nor replaced with somebody who's more than a JAG.
• Spikes -- rookie scale starter; presumably gone; unlikely to be replaced with somebody above JAG/rookie pay.

 

[mgteich]

It still isn't great to have $2.7M and have 5 starters and several others to replace.

The obvious explanation is that there aren't a lot of expensive players with contracts that ended this year. The first guys who come to mind who have their contracts ending are Talib, Spikes, Wendell, Edelman and Blount, and their aggregate 2013 earnings weren't very much. (By NFL starter standards, that is.) In particular:

• Talib -- middle-class starter; re-signing or replacing him would definitely cost more, although the contract could be back-loaded.
• Edelman -- JAG-pay starter; re-signing him would cost more; Reiss thinks if he isn't re-signed he'll be replaced with a middle-class vet.
• Wendell -- JAG-pay starter; re-signing or replacing him would cost more; there's an option of replacing him only with a JAG/rookie and squeaking by.
• Blount -- JAG-pay starter; hard to predict what he'll get after a good season, which ended with 2 great games and 1 lousy one. It's not obvious that he needs to be kept, nor replaced with somebody who's more than a JAG.
• Spikes -- rookie scale starter; presumably gone; unlikely to be replaced with somebody above JAG/rookie pay.

 

[Fencer]

It still isn't great to have $2.7M and have 5 starters and several others to replace.

That's the downside of cleverly assembling a team of underpaid young guys. When the chance arises, they want to be paid more. Either you replicate your success and replace them with other underpaid guys, or you're in a bind.

 

[Rob0729]

Personally, I think the Pats need another outside WR. Probably more than re-signing Edelman. I think the biggest problem this team has had four the last four or five years in the playoffs is the over reliance of the center of the field especially the slot WR.

I am a person who feels a deep threat is overrated. Just look at the two teams in the Super Bowl and you can see that. Yes, Demarius Thomas is a deep threat, but he wasn't really used that much in that role this year because Manning's lack of arm strength. And Russell Wilson completed six completed passes over 30 yards this season (for the record, Manning only had 9).

What I do think is necessary and lacking on this team without Dobson being healthy is outside receivers. You get two good outside receivers and all of the sudden the center of the field is wide open. That will let Gronk do his thing with less abuse and will make the slot receiver and the RB out of the backfield more effective.

I think the Pats need to spend money on another outside WR. Not crazy money, but enough to get a decent one. There are a few potential value options out there. Hakim Nicks might come cheap after a bad injury plagued year. Anquan Boldin at his age might come cheap (although he seems to want to return to San Fran). Decker is an option, but he is overrated and probably will be expensive. Jeremy Maclin may play for a "prove it" one year deal to show he is still a stud after his ACL tear (having brady throwing to him is a good way). James Jones might come cheap because of his reputation for dropsies although he has not been bad in that area the last few years and a down season due to injuries. And of course there is Emmanuel Sanders again.

I still think an outside receiver is the biggest priority to the offense other than maybe TE.

 

[Joker]

Bill could trade out Brady, go with Mallett, draft a kid with upside in THIS QB heavy draft and go with an aggressive young defense,running game and Mallett on a leash. Brady's cap hit is what this year? almost 15 K? that's a lot more flexibility than they have right now...

 

[Patsrock]

Bill could trade out Brady, go with Mallett, draft a kid with upside in THIS QB heavy draft and go with an aggressive young defense,running game and Mallett on a leash. Brady's cap hit is what this year? almost 15 K? that's a lot more flexibility than they have right now...

Except for the fact trading Brady increases his cap #from 14.8 to 30.8 million. Which means the Pats would have to trim $16million off to accomplish this

 

[Joker]

well then, if that is the case, the Pats are all in with Brady for at least another season.In MY opinion, Bill better invest heavily in blue chip O linemen in the draft, a TE with great physical tools and an interior upgrade on defense line. I love Tom Brady and everything he has accomplished here but he is NOT the Tom Brady of the Carolina Super Bowl anymore. He's been hit a lot the last five years.Those two passes he missed deep against Denver are a couple of the "five or six plays" BB stresses make or break a playoff game.

 

[Deus Irae]

well then, if that is the case, the Pats are all in with Brady for at least another season.In MY opinion, Bill better invest heavily in blue chip O linemen in the draft, a TE with great physical tools and an interior upgrade on defense line. I love Tom Brady and everything he has accomplished here but he is NOT the Tom Brady of the Carolina Super Bowl anymore. He's been hit a lot the last five years.Those two passes he missed deep against Denver are a couple of the "five or six plays" BB stresses make or break a playoff game.

Show me an NFL QB who doesn't miss on the deep ball, and I'll show you a made up QB, because no such quarterback has ever existed.

 

[Joker]

I hope not) that will become two

one QB in history has won a Super Bowl at age 37, perhaps (Lord I hope not) that will become two next Sunday. I witnessed Brady's performance last season versus the Ravens. This year's lead balloon in Denver only served to amplify my perception that he's on the downside. There's nothing wrong with expressing what one sees. It doesn't minimize Brady or his accomplishments. Denver gave Elway a lights out running attack and cut way back on his bombs away style that led to Super losses earlier in his career. I see nothing wrong with voicing an opinion that Brady and the Pats could benefit from the same approach.

 

[mgteich]

You say that "Bill better invest heavily in blue-chip O linemen in the draft."

I would note that few teams in the NFL invest as much resources as the patriots in the offensive line. We are current #7 in spending. With regard to draft choice, we start 2 firsts and a second rounder. Sure, it would be great to use our first 3 draft choices for 2 OL's and a TE and expect them all to be blue chip. I can only say that this expectation quite unreasonable, especially given where we pick.

well then, if that is the case, the Pats are all in with Brady for at least another season.In MY opinion, Bill better invest heavily in blue chip O linemen in the draft, a TE with great physical tools and an interior upgrade on defense line. I love Tom Brady and everything he has accomplished here but he is NOT the Tom Brady of the Carolina Super Bowl anymore. He's been hit a lot the last five years.Those two passes he missed deep against Denver are a couple of the "five or six plays" BB stresses make or break a playoff game.

 

[mgteich]

The patriots spend more than all but a few teams. We also use more draft resources. We will be starting 2 firsts and a second rounder. We also have had one of the very best position coaches in the NFL in charge of developing offensive lineman, especially backups and starters at the the two spots that are not filled by top draftees.

Also, perhaps adding two blue chip studs will make us better than our current ranking among OL's, top 5 for the last two years. Check below for a detailed analysis and where we ranked in 2013.

I understand that posters know much better than those guys who crunch the stats. The know what they see. And they see a line that needs major upgrades. I can only say that every one of us is entitled to our opinion.

http://fourseasonsbridge.com/harold/BASUFRD.pdf

I would be happy to have last year's line back healthy. And yes, I would like to draft a top center or guard as I have wanted us to do for 4 years. But just because I want an upgrade (as I want everywhere) doesn't mean that we NEED an upgrade to have one of the best offensive lines in the league.

well then, if that is the case, the Pats are all in with Brady for at least another season.In MY opinion, Bill better invest heavily in blue chip O linemen in the draft, a TE with great physical tools and an interior upgrade on defense line. I love Tom Brady and everything he has accomplished here but he is NOT the Tom Brady of the Carolina Super Bowl anymore. He's been hit a lot the last five years.Those two passes he missed deep against Denver are a couple of the "five or six plays" BB stresses make or break a playoff game.