Spending On The Offense - Not Much

[supafly]

Re: I hope not) that will become two

This year's lead balloon in Denver only served to amplify my perception that he's on the downside. There's nothing wrong with expressing what one sees. It doesn't minimize Brady or his accomplishments. Denver gave Elway a lights out running attack and cut way back on his bombs away style that led to Super losses earlier in his career. I see nothing wrong with voicing an opinion that Brady and the Pats could benefit from the same approach.

Part of me definitely agrees with you, Joker.

The other part of me looks at his stats in our postseason losses lately, and sees a QB who was still more than capable and may even be getting too much flak for this supposed downside.

Looking at 3 of our last 4 postseason losses:

2010 NYJ
2011 NYG (Super Bowl)
2013 DEN

6 total TDs (1 running) vs 2 INTs

Passing average of 284 per game (299, 277, 276)

Completion rate ave of over 64% (66, 64, 63)



I understand the thinking that we're seeing a Tom Brady who isn't the same (I guess), but these numbers are no different than the ones that we've seen throughout his career, possibly even better than some stretches than when we were winning more in the postseason.

The difference of course, is that the defense has been giving up an average of points in the high 20's since our last SB win in those 8 losses.

 

[Joker]

You say that "Bill better invest heavily in blue-chip O linemen in the draft."

I would note that few teams in the NFL invest as much resources as the patriots in the offensive line. We are current #7 in spending. With regard to draft choice, we start 2 firsts and a second rounder. Sure, it would be great to use our first 3 draft choices for 2 OL's and a TE and expect them all to be blue chip. I can only say that this expectation quite unreasonable, especially given where we pick.

so...you find the idea of drafting a center who will play the position the next 10 years a bad investment?

I thought that Cannon was the future at RG, but Connolley was playing at the end. With a healthy Seabass(?????????????) Cannon moves him out at RG and Kline perhaps, off his play this season moves in as depth. So, OK, don't take a guard in the 2nd or 3rd round.

Gronk has a torn ACL...are we waving wands now and exclaiming "presto!" and he returns to previous form. We do nothing to replace Ahern? We are satisified with T Rex armed Hooman as an offensive threat again this season?

IN MY OPINION, (that's very important and I posted it twice already so please, no snarky putdowns aimed at me for "thinking you know it all"), the Patriots would be well served upgrading Wendell with a player like Swanson from Arkansas who could be there in the 2nd round for them and so could TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, who would immediately solidy the TE position. The reason I believe a blue chip center is needed is from what I saw with my own eyes this season. The disruptiverush invariably came through Wendell. I want Brady to be able to keep his spot longer than what I saw this season.

 

[mgteich]

The post I responded to suggested that we NEEDED two stud linemen. I said that we need upgrades everywhere. He suggested the we didn't use enough resources on the OL. We use as much as almost any team in the NFL
=================
CENTER
For five years, I have said that I am fine with drafting a center in the first or second round.
That hasn't changed. And no, we don't get to keep a player for 10 years, only for 5. The alternative is to re-sign an average nfl starter, Wendell or someone else. The question is where our priorities. Some put CB, WR, TE and DE as higher priorities that center with regard to getting a stud. Another alternative is Connolly for a year, as a rookie learns.

TIGHT END
We need a TE. This should be one of the very highest priorities in a great tight-end draft. As we did once before, I wouldn't be surprised if we draft two in the first four rounds. We should
have FOUR tight ends on the squad as most of us wanted before the season started and we had so many options in camp. Hooman is a good blocking TE and a good #4. He can be higher as others learn and when Gronk is injured.

GUARD
Yes, we need a RG. This is the easiest position to find of any other on the squad. I'd be fine with using a top draft choice, but we have other needs. Connolly started the year at RG. In any case, Cannon has not proven himself as the future at RG. Cannon is a great asset as a backup RG and RT. In any case, Cannon is in his last year and will likely be gone next year.

WE DON'T DISAGREE ALL THAT MUCH
I am fine with using a top 64 draft choice for a center or even a guard. However, I would keep Connolly (for his last year), Kline and Svitek. With these players, we would have starters and backups no matter who we draft. Connolly is a needed backup. Cannon could start at RG. Cannon still might be needed at RT, so Connolly would go back to RG.

And sure, we might use a late rounder also. However, this lineman is unlikely to beat out Kline or Svitek or Cannon. He could. It's worth a shot. Koppen and Cannon were 5th rounders.

We have just so many top 100 draft choices. Belichick will use them wisely as he did last year. We will almost never have an "A" draft because we don't pick in the top half of the first round and will not as long as Brady and Belichick are here (or we make a major trade up).

so...you find the idea of drafting a center who will play the position the next 10 years a bad investment?

I thought that Cannon was the future at RG, but Connolley was playing at the end. With a healthy Seabass(?????????????) Cannon moves him out at RG and Kline perhaps, off his play this season moves in as depth. So, OK, don't take a guard in the 2nd or 3rd round.

Gronk has a torn ACL...are we waving wands now and exclaiming "presto!" and he returns to previous form. We do nothing to replace Ahern? We are satisified with T Rex armed Hooman as an offensive threat again this season?

IN MY OPINION, (that's very important and I posted it twice already so please, no snarky putdowns aimed at me for "thinking you know it all"), the Patriots would be well served upgrading Wendell with a player like Swanson from Arkansas who could be there in the 2nd round for them and so could TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, who would immediately solidy the TE position. The reason I believe a blue chip center is needed is from what I saw with my own eyes this season. The disruptiverush invariably came through Wendell. I want Brady to be able to keep his spot longer than what I saw this season.

 

[RIpats88]

I wonder if the Pats will look at Emmanual Sanders again this offseason? They were clearly interested enough last year to give him a RFA tender which most teams dont do and I wonder how much he would command in FA?

Dobson/Sanders on the outside with Amendola/Edelman(or collie if we lose edelman) in the slot

 

[mayoclinic]

I wonder if the Pats will look at Emmanual Sanders again this offseason? They were clearly interested enough last year to give him a RFA tender which most teams dont do and I wonder how much he would command in FA?

Dobson/Sanders on the outside with Amendola/Edelman(or collie if we lose edelman) in the slot

I very much doubt we re-sign Edelman and look at Sanders, but I think Sanders could be an option if Edelman walks.

 

[RIpats88]

I very much doubt we re-sign Edelman and look at Sanders, but I think Sanders could be an option if Edelman walks.

thats why if i'm the pats I wonder if they look at it as having Edelman/Amendola is repetitive and that Sanders offers a different type of WR

Boyce is pretty much a slot guy too

 

[mayoclinic]

thats why if i'm the pats I wonder if they look at it as having Edelman/Amendola is repetitive and that Sanders offers a different type of WR

Boyce is pretty much a slot guy too

Sanders is very similar to Boyce, and not that dissimilar from Edelman. They could certainly target him if they want someone like Edelman, but they could also let Edelman walk and target a different style receiver. Eric Decker will likely be way too expensive, but Hakeem Nicks is an outside possibility, and Jeremy Maclin could take a 1-year "prove it" deal. Kenny Britt and Riley Cooper could also be options. At least 1 of Maclin/Cooper ought to make it to FA; I doubt the Eagles can afford to re-sign both with big money tied up in DeSean Jackson and Shady McCoy.

To me, a lot depends on the Pats' assessment of Boyce. If they think he can make a leap, then it would be silly to overspend on Edelman. Amendola and Boyce would give the Pats plenty of capability in the slot, and either could play outside as well. In that scenario, it might make more sense to sign a bigger WR who can stretch the field more.

 

[mgteich]

Are discussing how much talent we need at the position of backup slot receiver?

It seems that one option is to let Edelman walk (we will likely have little choice), and have Boyce and Collie and Moe competing for the position of backup slot receiver. Before the attacks, I am 100% fine with keeping Edelman. I just think that others may pay more then we are wiling to pay.

If Edelman goes, I think that the best option is acquiring a downfield threat, unless we think that Boyce is ready to start. How the staff feels about Boyce may determine how much to spend on a downfield receiver.

Sanders is very similar to Boyce, and not that dissimilar from Edelman. They could certainly target him if they want someone like Edelman, but they could also let Edelman walk and target a different style receiver. Eric Decker will likely be way too expensive, but Hakeem Nicks is an outside possibility, and Jeremy Maclin could take a 1-year "prove it" deal. Kenny Britt and Riley Cooper could also be options. At least 1 of Maclin/Cooper ought to make it to FA; I doubt the Eagles can afford to re-sign both with big money tied up in DeSean Jackson and Shady McCoy.

To me, a lot depends on the Pats' assessment of Boyce. If they think he can make a leap, then it would be silly to overspend on Edelman. Amendola and Boyce would give the Pats plenty of capability in the slot, and either could play outside as well. In that scenario, it might make more sense to sign a bigger WR who can stretch the field more.

 

[Elijah T.]

Sanders is very similar to Boyce, and not that dissimilar from Edelman. They could certainly target him if they want someone like Edelman, but they could also let Edelman walk and target a different style receiver. Eric Decker will likely be way too expensive, but Hakeem Nicks is an outside possibility, and Jeremy Maclin could take a 1-year "prove it" deal. Kenny Britt and Riley Cooper could also be options. At least 1 of Maclin/Cooper ought to make it to FA; I doubt the Eagles can afford to re-sign both with big money tied up in DeSean Jackson and Shady McCoy.

To me, a lot depends on the Pats' assessment of Boyce. If they think he can make a leap, then it would be silly to overspend on Edelman. Amendola and Boyce would give the Pats plenty of capability in the slot, and either could play outside as well. In that scenario, it might make more sense to sign a bigger WR who can stretch the field more.

I agree with this.

Unfortunately I just don't believe we can pay Edelman. Despite the negativity surrounding Amendola's season-- which was similar to the negativity surrounding Edelman up until this season, I think he'll be exactly what the team has paid him to be as he moves forward with Brady and in good health.

Hakeem Nicks is the perfect option for this offense- a classic X receiver that can run all the routes, experienced in big games, and played in a diverse offense. He's only 26 years old, coming off an injury year that should lower his value somewhat. He would be worth making a serious play for.

 

[supafly]

I agree with this.

Unfortunately I just don't believe we can pay Edelman. Despite the negativity surrounding Amendola's season-- which was similar to the negativity surrounding Edelman up until this season, I think he'll be exactly what the team has paid him to be as he moves forward with Brady and in good health.

Hakeem Nicks is the perfect option for this offense- a classic X receiver that can run all the routes, experienced in big games, and played in a diverse offense. He's only 26 years old, coming off an injury year that should lower his value somewhat. He would be worth making a serious play for.

It's certainly quite possible that Bill Belichick feels that we are adequately equipped at the position of slot receiver moving forward into 2014, thus choosing to explore the lack of outside receiving options instead, as you suggest.

 

[mayoclinic]

Are discussing how much talent we need at the position of backup slot receiver?

It seems that one option is to let Edelman walk (we will likely have little choice), and have Boyce and Collie and Moe competing for the position of backup slot receiver. Before the attacks, I am 100% fine with keeping Edelman. I just think that others may pay more then we are wiling to pay.

If Edelman goes, I think that the best option is acquiring a downfield threat, unless we think that Boyce is ready to start. How the staff feels about Boyce may determine how much to spend on a downfield receiver.

No attack from me.

There's nothing not to love about Edelman, but if he's looking to get paid I don't think it happens. Boyce and Moe are already on the roster, Collie would come very cheaply, and there is some benefit to getting more of a downfield receiver to complement what's already in place.

This time last year most would have scoffed at the idea of Edelman coming back and essentially replacing Welker's productivity (100+ receptions, 1000+ yards), or becoming Brady's most trusted receiver.

 

[RhodyPatriot]

Re: I hope not) that will become two

Part of me definitely agrees with you, Joker.

The other part of me looks at his stats in our postseason losses lately, and sees a QB who was still more than capable and may even be getting too much flak for this supposed downside.

Looking at 3 of our last 4 postseason losses:

2010 NYJ
2011 NYG (Super Bowl)
2013 DEN

6 total TDs (1 running) vs 2 INTs

Passing average of 284 per game (299, 277, 276)

Completion rate ave of over 64% (66, 64, 63)



I understand the thinking that we're seeing a Tom Brady who isn't the same (I guess), but these numbers are no different than the ones that we've seen throughout his career, possibly even better than some stretches than when we were winning more in the postseason.

The difference of course, is that the defense has been giving up an average of points in the high 20's since our last SB win in those 8 losses.

This is a great example of how misleading stats can be. Brady had zero TD's and a passer rating in the 70's with passing yds in the low 100's through 3 qtrs. of that Bronco game.
The difference between now and the good old championship days??
Brady is not making the plays that are there to be made.
There are passes to open receivers in big situations that Tom Brady is not completing. Reads/passes he used to complete in his sleep. And by big situations I'm not talking end zone with 1 minute left in the game. A big situation in that Broncos game came in the 1st qtr. You remember that horrible playcall/decision/deep throw to a covered special teamer Matthew Slater that came in the 1st qtr on a 3rd and 3 play???? Danny Amendola was wide open in the middle of the field for a 1st down.
Patriots go 3 and out on their 1st 2 possessions in the opening qtr of that game. Had a chance to keep the ball, eat some clock, quiet the crowd, ice Manning, keep your defense off the field and hopefully at the end of it get some points. But it didn't happen because Brady forced a throw to a covered receiver (creepy how Brady did the exact same thing with Slater in the Cundiff blew it Ravens playoff game for a pick) instead of finding the open receiver and keeping possession of the ball.
It's the little things that win big games.
Brady was the best at finding/making those unspectacular but very important plays and doing it all game long.
But no longer.....and it's been this way for quite a few years now.
Not asking Tom Brady to be Superman, i.e. making ridiculous plays out of nothing.
No, what the Patriots need from Tom Brady is for him to make the plays that are there to be made.
He's no longer doing it in the playoffs.

 

[mayoclinic]

Re: I hope not) that will become two

This is a great example of how misleading stats can be. Brady had zero TD's and a passer rating in the 70's with passing yds in the low 100's through 3 qtrs. of that Bronco game.
The difference between now and the good old championship days??
Brady is not making the plays that are there to be made.
There are passes to open receivers in big situations that Tom Brady is not completing. Reads/passes he used to complete in his sleep. And by big situations I'm not talking end zone with 1 minute left in the game. A big situation in that Broncos game came in the 1st qtr. You remember that horrible playcall/decision/deep throw to a covered special teamer Matthew Slater that came in the 1st qtr on a 3rd and 3 play???? Danny Amendola was wide open in the middle of the field for a 1st down.
Patriots go 3 and out on their 1st 2 possessions in the opening qtr of that game. Had a chance to keep the ball, eat some clock, quiet the crowd, ice Manning, keep your defense off the field and hopefully at the end of it get some points. But it didn't happen because Brady forced a throw to a covered receiver (creepy how Brady did the exact same thing with Slater in the Cundiff blew it Ravens playoff game for a pick) instead of finding the open receiver and keeping possession of the ball.
It's the little things that win big games.
Brady was the best at finding/making those unspectacular but very important plays and doing it all game long.
But no longer.....and it's been this way for quite a few years now.
Not asking Tom Brady to be Superman, i.e. making ridiculous plays out of nothing.
No, what the Patriots need from Tom Brady is for him to make the plays that are there to be made.
He's no longer doing it in the playoffs.

I do think that Brady is sometimes trying to do too much, and not just taking what is available. I was worried when I saw the "Jim Nantz says he's never seen Brady so hyped up" thread. I don't want Brady hyped up and going out trying to force the deep ball to a covered Matt Slater when Danny Amendola is wide open. I want Brady calm, treating the AFCCG like any other game, and cooly shredding the other team by finding the open man.

It certainly doesn't happen all the time, but I do think there are times Brady tries to do too much. This AFCCG was one of them, IMHO.