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Rookie QB Led Offenses

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Ring 6

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It seems that the historic success the Patriots had with a rookie QB is being overlooked.
So here is some perspective. Rather than using total points scored, which the patriots scored more than any of those
in order to eliminate the silly arguments that ensue, I will use the filling measures of productivity of an offense.
1) Offensive TDs scored (eliminates defense and st scores that skew the numbers)
2) Score %. The percentage of drives your team scored points
3) Red zone TD % (used with 2 and 1 shows whether you get the ball in the end zone or settle for FGs)
4) 3rd down conversions %. (Least instructive of the numbers because ultimately 1,2 and 3 are more important and dependent upon this but still a factor) I wont bother including anything of this years other rookie QBs because it’s not even a contest
***These are total teams stats not just games the rookie started
2021 Pats Mac Jones
48 offensive tds
48% scoring
61.9 red zone
43.5 3rd down

2020 Chargers Justin Herbert
43 offensive Tds
38.3% scoring
57.1 red zone
44.2 3rd down

2020 Bengals Joe Burrow
Burrow only played in 10 games
32 offensive tds 22 in Burrows 10 in the other 6
33 Score %
50 red zone
36.4 3rd down
These were slightly but not dramatically higher in only burrows games.


2018 Bills Josh Allen (11 starts)
28 offensive tds
26.4 score %
59.5 red zone
31.6 3rd down

2004 Steelers Ben Roethlisberger
36 offensive TDs
35.8 score %
45.9 red zone
42.9 3rd down

2012 Colts Andrew Luck
34 off tds
33.3 score %
54.2. Rz
42.8 3rd down

2014 Raiders Derek Carr
26 off tds
22.7 score %
72.4 rz (interesting stat. Only 29 red zone trips all season; #1 td td rate but #31 in points scored)
33.9 3rd down

2012 Seahawks Russel Wilson
43 off tds
39.4 score %
57.4 rz
40.2 3rd down

2019 cards Khyler Murray
38 off tds
38.8 scoring %
45.3 rz
36.0 3rd

2008 Falcons Matt Ryan
39 TDs
39.7 score %
55.4 rz
43.4 3rd

2016 Cowboys Dak Prescott
49 offensive TDs
43.9 score %
65.7 rz
43.2 3rd down

most comparable. In total cowboys scored 421 points in 16 games, patriots 462 in 17.

I may have missed someone but it’s almost impossible to find a rookie led offense that was better than the 2021 Patriots.
This is extremely encouraging for the future.
 

‘Mondre

Third String But Playing on Special Teams
Not a strong enough correlation to me.

to play a rookie qb, generally speaking, you had to have played poorly enough in seasons prior to even get a guy at the level that you do via draft. (Of course the exception is if you trade for that spot)

mind you we had a depleted team with poor qb play last year, resulting in what I believe was an illusionary 7-9 record and 15 pick.

That same team with Brady wins two more, with the covid opt outs we win two more. (Yes it hit us harder than most teams, accept this fact)

our line was pressured the most, and they had some of the best protection. Can we praise them some?

that also speaks to the running game doing well.

can we wait till halfway through year three to coronate Mac?
 
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DropKickFlutie

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
As the OP has a serial tendency to make sh-t up, we're going to need to see the source from where any of this info was pulled from.

Secondly, I think most already agree Mac had a great year and probably just below as good a rookie year as Dak. So this thread has no point, no surprise. Mac was a home run QB pick and huge kudos to Eliot Wolf and Groh for a revamped 2021 great draft haul, especially after Bob Kraft called out the several years of crappy drafting before 2021.

.
 

moosekill

In the Starting Line-Up
As the OP has a serial tendency to make sh-t up, we're going to need to see the source from where any of this info was pulled from.

Secondly, I think most already agree Mac had a great year and probably just below as good a rookie year as Dak. So this thread has no point, no surprise. Mac was a home run QB pick and huge kudos to Eliot Wolf and Groh for a revamped 2021 great draft haul, especially after Bob Kraft called out the several years of crappy drafting before 2021.

.
Pot meet kettle.
DKF all you do is spout crap you have no
Proof of over and over, then you call out someone for making stuff up. My god in heaven man.
 
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Pape

In the Starting Line-Up
As the OP has a serial tendency to make sh-t up, we're going to need to see the source from where any of this info was pulled from.

Secondly, I think most already agree Mac had a great year and probably just below as good a rookie year as Dak. So this thread has no point, no surprise. Mac was a home run QB pick and huge kudos to Eliot Wolf and Groh for a revamped 2021 great draft haul, especially after Bob Kraft called out the several years of crappy drafting before 2021.

.
I get that you don't like these numbers because it shows that the JMD lead offense did well in 2021... But come on, calling out the info as suspect? All of these stats are readily accessible on PFR team summary pages... This is basic information that is easy to get / confirm...

Here's the Patriots page...

 

RobertWeathers

Author of the Port Huron Statement
It seems that the historic success the Patriots had with a rookie QB is being overlooked.
So here is some perspective. Rather than using total points scored, which the patriots scored more than any of those
in order to eliminate the silly arguments that ensue, I will use the filling measures of productivity of an offense.
1) Offensive TDs scored (eliminates defense and st scores that skew the numbers)
2) Score %. The percentage of drives your team scored points
3) Red zone TD % (used with 2 and 1 shows whether you get the ball in the end zone or settle for FGs)
4) 3rd down conversions %. (Least instructive of the numbers because ultimately 1,2 and 3 are more important and dependent upon this but still a factor) I wont bother including anything of this years other rookie QBs because it’s not even a contest
***These are total teams stats not just games the rookie started
2021 Pats Mac Jones
48 offensive tds
48% scoring
61.9 red zone
43.5 3rd down

2020 Chargers Justin Herbert
43 offensive Tds
38.3% scoring
57.1 red zone
44.2 3rd down

2020 Bengals Joe Burrow
Burrow only played in 10 games
32 offensive tds 22 in Burrows 10 in the other 6
33 Score %
50 red zone
36.4 3rd down
These were slightly but not dramatically higher in only burrows games.


2018 Bills Josh Allen (11 starts)
28 offensive tds
26.4 score %
59.5 red zone
31.6 3rd down

2004 Steelers Ben Roethlisberger
36 offensive TDs
35.8 score %
45.9 red zone
42.9 3rd down

2012 Colts Andrew Luck
34 off tds
33.3 score %
54.2. Rz
42.8 3rd down

2014 Raiders Derek Carr
26 off tds
22.7 score %
72.4 rz (interesting stat. Only 29 red zone trips all season; #1 td td rate but #31 in points scored)
33.9 3rd down

2012 Seahawks Russel Wilson
43 off tds
39.4 score %
57.4 rz
40.2 3rd down

2019 cards Khyler Murray
38 off tds
38.8 scoring %
45.3 rz
36.0 3rd

2008 Falcons Matt Ryan
39 TDs
39.7 score %
55.4 rz
43.4 3rd

2016 Cowboys Dak Prescott
49 offensive TDs
43.9 score %
65.7 rz
43.2 3rd down

most comparable. In total cowboys scored 421 points in 16 games, patriots 462 in 17.

I may have missed someone but it’s almost impossible to find a rookie led offense that was better than the 2021 Patriots.
This is extremely encouraging for the future.
Mac absolutely had a great rookie year. Not sure it predicts future success but NEP fans can't help be optimistic about the future
 

Ring 6

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2021 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
As the OP has a serial tendency to make sh-t up, we're going to need to see the source from where any of this info was pulled from.

Secondly, I think most already agree Mac had a great year and probably just below as good a rookie year as Dak. So this thread has no point, no surprise. Mac was a home run QB pick and huge kudos to Eliot Wolf and Groh for a revamped 2021 great draft haul, especially after Bob Kraft called out the several years of crappy drafting before 2021.

.
You keep making this claim and EVERY SINGLE TIME you do my facts are 100% correct. Then you do a squirrelly run away and wait until the next set of facts you don’t like and repeat the process. So WHO has a history of making **** up?

And I’d like to introduce you to site where you can see all of these numbers for yourself. I’m sure you’ve never been there because you have an aversion to using facts to back up your opinion.

Maybe you can find someone to teach you how to use it.
 

Ring 6

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2021 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
Not a strong enough correlation to me.

to play a rookie qb, generally speaking, you had to have played poorly enough in seasons prior to even get a guy at the level that you do via draft. (Of course the exception is if you trade for that spot)

mind you we had a depleted team with poor qb play last year, resulting in what I believe was an illusionary 7-9 record and 15 pick.

That same team with Brady wins two more, with the covid opt outs we win two more. (Yes it hit us harder than most teams, accept this fact)

our line was pressured the most, and they had some of the best protection. Can we praise them some?

that also speaks to the running game doing well.

can we wait till halfway through year three to coronate Mac?
Correlation to what?
It is the performance of the offense compared to that of other selected teams with “good” QBs in their rookie year. I left out all the slugs.
Im not sure how assessing the offense compared to the best of other rookie QB offenses is “coronating” anyone. It’s an analysis, would you rather we just all like 8 year olds and cry for 4 months because we lost a playoff game?
 

farn

Pro Bowl Player
Brady was so out-of-worldly for so many years, that many younger fans don’t remember cheering for an unsuccessful team. This unprecedented success from 2001-2018 (and arguably 2019, 12-4) has slanted opinions and set unrealistic expectations.

Mac was amazing in year 1. If he improves even a little bit each year (seems like a fast learner, a dedicated pro, an intense competitor), by year 3 there might be the makings of something special here. Best ever special ? No. Capable of winning a title special ? Maybe.

Very, very satisfied with the year one output from the rookie QB. Looking forward to seeing how his career plays out. Bullish on this athlete.
 

borg

Pro Bowl Player
2020 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
2021 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
It’s an analysis
Point totals and red zone % are not much of an analysis.
Exclusion of impactful variables like "rushing reliance" indicates how little "analysis" there actually is

Yes....Mac was on the field....but so weren't 10 other offensive players....and 5 of those 10 were high priced new additions, and let's not completely ignore a rookie RB who dominated when given opportunities.
 

RobertWeathers

Author of the Port Huron Statement
Point totals and red zone % are not much of an analysis.
Exclusion of impactful variables like "rushing reliance" indicates how little "analysis" there actually is

Yes....Mac was on the field....but so weren't 10 other offensive players....and 5 of those 10 were high priced new additions
Yes and no.

An offense led by a crappy QB is pretty much ineffective or very average regardless of it's playmakers.

An offense led by a competent QB with playmakers is average to good.

An offense with a top 10 QB with playmakers is very good to elite

All the poster is doing is showing rookie QBs who were at a minimum competent their rookie years more often than not went on to have solid NFL careers.
 

Ring 6

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2021 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
Point totals and red zone % are not much of an analysis.
Exclusion of impactful variables like "rushing reliance" indicates how little "analysis" there actually is

Yes....Mac was on the field....but so weren't 10 other offensive players....and 5 of those 10 were high priced new additions, and let's not completely ignore a rookie RB who dominated when given opportunities.
I was not analyzing the QB I was analyzing the production of the offense.
Please tell me what outside of how much you score, how often you score, how you do in the red zone and how you do on 3rd down is a better gauge of how productive an offense is?
 

Ring 6

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Yes and no.

An offense led by a crappy QB is pretty much ineffective or very average regardless of it's playmakers.

An offense led by a competent QB with playmakers is average to good.

An offense with a top 10 QB with playmakers is very good to elite

All the poster is doing is showing rookie QBs who were at a minimum competent their rookie years more often than not went on to have solid NFL careers.
One clarification. I am not showing QBs I am showing OFFENSES.
 

Triumph

Hall of Fame Poster
What do the Patriots rushing TDs have to do with Mac Jones?

Lipstick on a pig.

Rookie Herbert had 9 more passing TDs 31 compared to Jones 22.
3 fewer INTs 10 compared to Jones 13
5 rushing TDs where Jones had 0
2 more Game Winning Drives 3 compare to Jones 1.
1 more fumble 8 compared to Jones 7.

In his rookie season Herbert scored 36 TDs himself. Everyone was impressed with Herberts rookie season and this season was no different. Trying to make Jones look like Herbert is like trying to make Papa Johns cardboard pizza look like it came form the Boston's north end.
 

Patriot Missile

Pro Bowl Player
I had started doing some research on this subject as well. Had already compared Josh Allen’s, Prescotts and Wilsons rookie season. In part because I wanted to dispel the stupidity that has been getting dragged around regarding the rookie wall, weak arm etc. It was a rookie year and thats all it was, when things are going right Mac Jones is getting all the praises from fans and media alike. When things are going bad things turn in a hurry. Unnamed scouts and unnamed retired gms quotes.

Noone can predict the future. There were some here that were calling Josh Allen a bust after his first season and a half. Even Bills fans. Mac Jones has flaws no doubt but lets just see if they are correctable before going with the old he has a low ceiling bs.
 

Doctor DDS

Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job
Mac seems to have established himself as a competent QB at the minimum. Probably in the same tier as a Jimmy G and if surrounded by the right components should be good enough to help guide the Pats to the playoffs on a regular basis. We're all hopeful he is much more than that and can make a similar leap like Burrow and Allen recently did and move into the top 10 category. Am optimistic he'll be able to do it but he'll need a good offseason to get there.
 

MahomestoKelce

Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job
Brady was so out-of-worldly for so many years, that many younger fans don’t remember cheering for an unsuccessful team. This unprecedented success from 2001-2018 (and arguably 2019, 12-4) has slanted opinions and set unrealistic expectations.

Mac was amazing in year 1. If he improves even a little bit each year (seems like a fast learner, a dedicated pro, an intense competitor), by year 3 there might be the makings of something special here. Best ever special ? No. Capable of winning a title special ? Maybe.

Very, very satisfied with the year one output from the rookie QB. Looking forward to seeing how his career plays out. Bullish on this athlete.
Bingo.

Mac Jones should be judged on how he performs against his division and peers. Other things too. Like has he improved arm strength? What's his overall football IQ?

But Brady is an outlier. An exception to everything.

It's great for Brady. But the reality is it's hard to get to--and win--a SB. Even once. The parity is crazy. You've got junk like the Jags beating Buffalo. That's football. That's reality. There isn't alot separating the best from the worst.

There will never be another Tom Brady.

I think most Pats fans realize that.
 

Pape

In the Starting Line-Up
Yep.

....But without competent QB play the offense turns to garbage.
the telling stat

2020 red zone attempts: 48, 26 rz tds, 54.2%
2021 red zone attempts: 63, 39 rz tds, 61.9%

a net positive gain of 15 red zone appearances, and 13 more tds, better conversion rate... the offense was moving the ball significantly better than the year before... and wasn't so dependent on a single player to do so, with 12 of the 48 2020 tds coming from newton rushes... Much better balanced offense...
 
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