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It seems that the historic success the Patriots had with a rookie QB is being overlooked.
So here is some perspective. Rather than using total points scored, which the patriots scored more than any of those
in order to eliminate the silly arguments that ensue, I will use the filling measures of productivity of an offense.
1) Offensive TDs scored (eliminates defense and st scores that skew the numbers)
2) Score %. The percentage of drives your team scored points
3) Red zone TD % (used with 2 and 1 shows whether you get the ball in the end zone or settle for FGs)
4) 3rd down conversions %. (Least instructive of the numbers because ultimately 1,2 and 3 are more important and dependent upon this but still a factor) I wont bother including anything of this years other rookie QBs because it’s not even a contest
***These are total teams stats not just games the rookie started
2021 Pats Mac Jones
48 offensive tds
48% scoring
61.9 red zone
43.5 3rd down
2020 Chargers Justin Herbert
43 offensive Tds
38.3% scoring
57.1 red zone
44.2 3rd down
2020 Bengals Joe Burrow
Burrow only played in 10 games
32 offensive tds 22 in Burrows 10 in the other 6
33 Score %
50 red zone
36.4 3rd down
These were slightly but not dramatically higher in only burrows games.
2018 Bills Josh Allen (11 starts)
28 offensive tds
26.4 score %
59.5 red zone
31.6 3rd down
2004 Steelers Ben Roethlisberger
36 offensive TDs
35.8 score %
45.9 red zone
42.9 3rd down
2012 Colts Andrew Luck
34 off tds
33.3 score %
54.2. Rz
42.8 3rd down
2014 Raiders Derek Carr
26 off tds
22.7 score %
72.4 rz (interesting stat. Only 29 red zone trips all season; #1 td td rate but #31 in points scored)
33.9 3rd down
2012 Seahawks Russel Wilson
43 off tds
39.4 score %
57.4 rz
40.2 3rd down
2019 cards Khyler Murray
38 off tds
38.8 scoring %
45.3 rz
36.0 3rd
2008 Falcons Matt Ryan
39 TDs
39.7 score %
55.4 rz
43.4 3rd
2016 Cowboys Dak Prescott
49 offensive TDs
43.9 score %
65.7 rz
43.2 3rd down
most comparable. In total cowboys scored 421 points in 16 games, patriots 462 in 17.
I may have missed someone but it’s almost impossible to find a rookie led offense that was better than the 2021 Patriots.
This is extremely encouraging for the future.
So here is some perspective. Rather than using total points scored, which the patriots scored more than any of those
in order to eliminate the silly arguments that ensue, I will use the filling measures of productivity of an offense.
1) Offensive TDs scored (eliminates defense and st scores that skew the numbers)
2) Score %. The percentage of drives your team scored points
3) Red zone TD % (used with 2 and 1 shows whether you get the ball in the end zone or settle for FGs)
4) 3rd down conversions %. (Least instructive of the numbers because ultimately 1,2 and 3 are more important and dependent upon this but still a factor) I wont bother including anything of this years other rookie QBs because it’s not even a contest
***These are total teams stats not just games the rookie started
2021 Pats Mac Jones
48 offensive tds
48% scoring
61.9 red zone
43.5 3rd down
2020 Chargers Justin Herbert
43 offensive Tds
38.3% scoring
57.1 red zone
44.2 3rd down
2020 Bengals Joe Burrow
Burrow only played in 10 games
32 offensive tds 22 in Burrows 10 in the other 6
33 Score %
50 red zone
36.4 3rd down
These were slightly but not dramatically higher in only burrows games.
2018 Bills Josh Allen (11 starts)
28 offensive tds
26.4 score %
59.5 red zone
31.6 3rd down
2004 Steelers Ben Roethlisberger
36 offensive TDs
35.8 score %
45.9 red zone
42.9 3rd down
2012 Colts Andrew Luck
34 off tds
33.3 score %
54.2. Rz
42.8 3rd down
2014 Raiders Derek Carr
26 off tds
22.7 score %
72.4 rz (interesting stat. Only 29 red zone trips all season; #1 td td rate but #31 in points scored)
33.9 3rd down
2012 Seahawks Russel Wilson
43 off tds
39.4 score %
57.4 rz
40.2 3rd down
2019 cards Khyler Murray
38 off tds
38.8 scoring %
45.3 rz
36.0 3rd
2008 Falcons Matt Ryan
39 TDs
39.7 score %
55.4 rz
43.4 3rd
2016 Cowboys Dak Prescott
49 offensive TDs
43.9 score %
65.7 rz
43.2 3rd down
most comparable. In total cowboys scored 421 points in 16 games, patriots 462 in 17.
I may have missed someone but it’s almost impossible to find a rookie led offense that was better than the 2021 Patriots.
This is extremely encouraging for the future.