Patriots / Brady Discussion

[Chris Stevenson]

I hear that a lot - "McD calls this too much", or "McD doesn't call that often enough". The simple, practical reality is that McD is limited to calling the plays that the players he has available to him are best able to execute. Of what benefit would it be for McD to arbitrarily call plays that the guys he has available to him can't execute well enough to be sufficiently successful?

Not every potential pass-catcher who's available for a game is going to excel equally at running every type of route at every distance. The players who, in 2016, excelled at, and who contributed the most to, the middle-distance (10-15 yards) receptions that comprised about 75% of last season's passing attack were Edelman, Mitchell and Bennett, with some help from White and Amendola.

With Bennett gone in FA (replaced by Allen), and with Edelman and Mitchell suddenly out of the picture just before the start of the regular season, Amendola became THE middle-distance receiver with Hogan leaving his 2016 deeper routes to Cooks and attempting to supplement Amendola with more middle-distance routes (Hogan's catch rate dropped significantly, btw). And then, after the first half of the season, even Hogan was unavailable.

Meanwhile, the increase in short-distance (<10yards) receiving from RBs (including White) has been even greater than the increase in deep-range (15 yards +) receiving.

... because the players who have the skills to be consistently successful running the mid-range routes simply haven't been available, but those who are best at short range and long range HAVE been available. So, middle-distance receptions this season have comprised about 25% of the passing attack.

All true, but I also see Brady ignoring Allen and Dorsett like they have a disease and then everyone runs around claiming they aren't any good. Well, if he doesn't throw to them, how do we know?

Also, this is not the first time it's been a struggle breaking in new guys. This isn't splitting the atom here.

In all honesty, I got giddy on that screen pass to Gillislee vs the Jets and the early passes to Dorsett and Allen early in the Pitt game, but then they were never seen again. That's what we need more of, but then it disappears throughout the game for some mysterious reason, which IMO, is McDaniels getting too cute, thinking he needs to show something else as opposed to just continuing to do what's working. Not all of the time, but absolutely sometimes he's done this.

It's stuff like that, which is what I am talking about here. Ever notice, the other All Pro QBs don't have such an issue breaking in new receivers every year? Rodgers, Rivers, Brees, Stafford, Big Ben, etc...No problems.

Cooks comes here and he's "not that good" according to some. So, does that mean Brees is better than Brady? I don't think so.

Obviously, Brady wants the guys he prefers, but life isn't perfect and it's their job to figure out a Plan B that is workable.

The offense has sputtered without Hogan out there, no question about it.

Edelman? Of course it took a hit, but it's a good thing BB dealt for Cooks, too. Different skill sets, but I am always shocked when people claim Cooks isn't that good, when it's because Edelman has been THAT good this whole time.

It doesn't mean a loaded RB group, a HOF TE and Cooks, can be your only targets, though.

The more sustained commitments to the run have been good, but the offense was clearly more lethal last year in the red zone.

As I keep mentioning, they've made it through and I expect the real deal on Sat night.

The Pats are so loaded in the backfield, Gillislee can't even stay Active.

Hands down, Brady's best RB group since 2003 or 2004, and i would say it's more talented and deeper.

 

[Deus Irae]

An enormous amount went wrong in the front 7 this year. It's amazing to think that this team headed into training camp assuming it would have Derek Rivers, Rob Ninkovich, Donta Hightower, Vincent Valentine and Shea McClellin. Add in the games where they were missing Branch or Brown and Van Noy too, and that's essentially the entire planned front 7 out of commission.

No question. The loss of Edelman was the biggest single loss for the team, IMO, but I would say that the loss of Hightower, coupled with the injuries/loss of KVN, McClellin and Branch, was more devastating overall.

 

[Chris Stevenson]

An enormous amount went wrong in the front 7 this year. It's amazing to think that this team headed into training camp assuming it would have Derek Rivers, Rob Ninkovich, Donta Hightower, Vincent Valentine and Shea McClellin. Add in the games where they were missing Branch or Brown and Van Noy too, and that's essentially the entire planned front 7 out of commission.

Yep. Which is why BB /Caserio are GM of the Year every year, but he never wins the award.
McClellin was a huge loss, more than some want to understand. The guy was the fastest and most athletic LB we had. Thankfully, Flowers is doing ok there.

I think BB knew McClellin's concussion situation might be career ending, hence the trade for Flowers in Sept.

 

[The Brandon Five]

And the other is the second from the bottom (ATL) playing against the 3rd from the top (PHL). Might be something to watch for in that game - to see of ATL can consistently make PHL start drives behind their own 30 and how far behind their own 30 - and what happens on those drives.

Special teams could be key for ATL.

What's weird is that Atlanta was the second-worst all season, but beat LA who were the best. Any given Saturday, I guess.

 

[maineman209]

What's weird is that Atlanta was the second-worst all season, but beat LA who were the best. Any given Saturday, I guess.

So, what was the Rams' average starting FP for the game? I haven't checked the play-by-play yet.

 

[jimnance]

All true, but I also see Brady ignoring Allen and Dorsett like they have a disease and then everyone runs around claiming they aren't any good. Well, if he doesn't throw to them, how do we know?

Also, this is not the first time it's been a struggle breaking in new guys. This isn't splitting the atom here.

In all honesty, I got giddy on that screen pass to Gillislee vs the Jets and the early passes to Dorsett and Allen early in the Pitt game, but then they were never seen again. That's what we need more of, but then it disappears throughout the game for some mysterious reason, which IMO, is McDaniels getting too cute, thinking he needs to show something else as opposed to just continuing to do what's working. Not all of the time, but absolutely sometimes he's done this.

It's stuff like that, which is what I am talking about here. Ever notice, the other All Pro QBs don't have such an issue breaking in new receivers every year? Rodgers, Rivers, Brees, Stafford, Big Ben, etc...No problems.

Cooks comes here and he's "not that good" according to some. So, does that mean Brees is better than Brady? I don't think so.

Obviously, Brady wants the guys he prefers, but life isn't perfect and it's their job to figure out a Plan B that is workable.

The offense has sputtered without Hogan out there, no question about it.

Edelman? Of course it took a hit, but it's a good thing BB dealt for Cooks, too. Different skill sets, but I am always shocked when people claim Cooks isn't that good, when it's because Edelman has been THAT good this whole time.

It doesn't mean a loaded RB group, a HOF TE and Cooks, can be your only targets, though.

The more sustained commitments to the run have been good, but the offense was clearly more lethal last year in the red zone.

As I keep mentioning, they've made it through and I expect the real deal on Sat night.

The Pats are so loaded in the backfield, Gillislee can't even stay Active.

Hands down, Brady's best RB group since 2003 or 2004, and i would say it's more talented and deeper.

Your shtick is getting old.
Virtually every single one of your posts includes potshots at Brady.
Most are completely unwarranted.
You have saved most of your venom for the GOAT.
I'm thinking Andy might be on to something. ...you're an irrational niners/Montana fan. Right?

 

[Chris Stevenson]

Your shtick is getting old.
Virtually every single one of your posts includes potshots at Brady.
Most are completely unwarranted.
You have saved most of your venom for the GOAT.
I'm thinking Andy might be on to something. ...you're an irrational niners/Montana fan. Right?

It has to be part of the discussion because it's been the elephant in the room for many years. It's not a schtick.

Do you really want to never score in the 1st qtr. of a Super Bowl or need to move a mountain to win a Super Bowl every time they're in one?

I have more confidence the D than the offense, until I see otherwise. I saw an inconsistent offense all the way down the stretch for like 6 games or so, while the D had injuries everywhere.

Part of it is tied to Hogan missing and Mitchell, for that matter at the X.

Brady is without question the GOAT, but now the pressure is on, and I think he will deliver in the postseason.

The red zone offense HAS to improve if they're going to even be able to beat a defense like Jax or Minnesota.

How is an objective take of the offense down the stretch "venom" towards Brady? He leads the offense, so of course he is part of the discussion.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

I was surprised by such a comment as well. I have never been able to figure out why when Brady plays poorly, the fans ignore it and look to scapegoat elsewhere.

Honestly, the best draft pick BB ever had the last 7 or 8 years, minus the Gronk pick, was the JimmyG pick. Brady got hungrier from 2014 through, now than I'd ever seen him since the Weis years.Brady knew JImmyG was good and so did BB.

Not an accident, Brady has had better postseasons since. I expect it to continue.

BB should shoulder some of the blame for sure, but the amount of blame to him is ridiculous. He can't throw it, catch or run.

Part II: Draft problems! BB the GM is killing BB the HC! and other hawt taeks

I'm responding to your post in order to rant about the draft. Don't take it too personally. I just want to address two things briefly: 1) success rates, and 2) team building. They're intertwined, but too often people mistake the one for the other.

Belichick's hit rate is just fine. He has misses, sometimes bad misses, but so does everyone else. He brings in quality, contributing players at roughly the league average. The problem with citing his draft record, however, is that the draft has been so overblown that it overshadows roster building. The draft is overrated.

Look, I get it; I'm a huge draftnik. My favorite place on this site is the draft sub forum. I watch every single cut up released by Draftbreakdown. I really, really enjoying scouting prospects and projecting success. But a draft class is only one small part of a GM's responsibilities, and in fact, it may be the least important.

The 90 man roster is never comprised of more than about 10 - 20% of drafted or undrafted rookies each year. We frequently bring in more FA signings and trades than we do draft picks. These are usually better investments, anyway, because they require less development/projection, and understand already the dynamics and requirements of pro football.

Why would anyone venture into the draft, then? Well, player contracts are significantly cheaper. There's great value in paying next to nothing for fresh talent. Four years (plus one, for 1st round options) of contribution is a great way to reinforce key positions on the team. There's also inherent risk. Imagine a corporation signing a new CEO fresh out of MBA school and handing him the keys to the company -- it's enormously presumptuous to assume that he will succeed, even though it can work out.

Furthermore, the Patriots grade differently from most teams in the league. Resident draft (and politics) guru @manxman2601 posted a nice breakdown recently, so I'll link to his post: 2018 Draft Prospect Thread

Essentially, they bypass the usual discussions of upside, and cut to the heart of the matter: Can the player contribute in a designated role? If so, how quickly? Someone who can start early in his career will receive a higher grade. So, "3rd rounder" or "5th rounder" means almost nothing to the Patriots. If a guy can contribute, then you take him when you have a draft pick. Waiting around to get better perceived market value is a good way to lose out on someone who can be part of your plan. It drives the fanbase crazy, but so what.

Belichick trades up as often as he trades down, historically. We like to joke about a 1st rounder turning into 2 3rds, 3 4ths, a 5th next year, and an extra bag of footballs for the practice field, but Belichick isn't afraid to go get his guy when he deems it appropriate. Sometimes it works. Sometimes it doesn't. But that's just life.

Additionally, consider that the Patriots run of sustained success means picking late 20s or early 30s almost every year for Belichick's tenure, which often means no chance at the "can't miss" or "unlimited upside" draft prospects. Whenever Belichick has received a high draft pick, however, he's made the most of it, picking up solid to exceptional players (Seymour, Warren, Mayo, Solder, etc) who were key parts of championship runs. According to the admittedly outdated draft slot trade chart, the 32nd pick is less than half the value of the 12th overall pick. Parity works against Belichick the drafter.

Consider also that Belichick needs to balance the budget, not just collect talent. The Patriots are extremely disciplined with their cap management, and they don't just mortgage their future for the sake of short term success. Just as the draft is a small portion of the overall team building process, player acquisition is similarly only one duty of the GM. Belichick has crafted a more sustainable system of player acquisition and management than anyone else in the salary cap era.

Look at how many players we're slated to lose next year, at minimum. More could retire, or perhaps fall to the injury bug, etc. The draft can't account for replenishing all those spots. 2018 NFL Free Agents Tracker

Continued below . . .

 

[PatsDeb]

Oy, can this thread get back to practice news? The rest of it has pulled a Fonzi and jumped the shark.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Now consider this list of trades, draft picks, signings, and departures, from just this year, per Wikipedia. Somehow, Belichick will manage to fill these holes and field a competitive team. I know he has help from Caserio and others, but he still has final say. It's an incredible run, and may even be more impressive than his fine job coaching up the players on the roster. This is yet another in the lengthy list of reasons that Belichick was never on the "hot seat" and never will be, as long as he wants to stay in New England.


Trades

• March 8: The Patriots obtained tight end Dwayne Allen and a sixth-round selection and sent a fourth-round selection to the Indianapolis Colts.(see draft section below).
• March 10: The Patriots were involved in a trade in which they sent their second-round selection to the Carolina Panthers for defensive end Kony Ealy and a third-round selection.(see draft section below).
• March 10: The Patriots were involved in a trade in which they sent their first-round selection and a third-round selection to the New Orleans Saints for wide receiver Brandin Cooks and a fourth-round selection.(see draft section below).
• April 29: The Patriots traded a fifth-round selection to the Kansas City Chiefs for tight end James O'Shaughnessy and a sixth-round selection.(see draft section below).
• August 29: The Patriots traded a 2018 seventh-round selection to the Cincinnati Bengals for linebacker Marquis Flowers.
• September 1: The Patriots traded cornerback Justin Coleman to the Seattle Seahawks for a 2018 seventh-round draft selection.
• September 2: The Patriots traded a 2019 sixth-round selection to the Detroit Lions for cornerback Johnson Bademosi.
• September 2: The Patriots traded quarterback Jacoby Brissett to the Indianapolis Colts for wide receiver Phillip Dorsett.
• September 2: The Patriots traded their 2018 fifth and seventh-round picks to the Seahawks for defensive end Cassius Marsh.
• October 30: The Patriots traded quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to the San
• Francisco 49ers for a 2018 second-round selection.[115]

Draft

3 83 Derek Rivers OLB Youngstown State
85 Antonio Garcia OT Troy
4 131 Deatrich Wise Jr. DE Arkansas
6 211 Conor McDermott OT UCLA

Signings

TE Rob Housler Chicago Bears January 19, 2017
CB Stephon Gilmore Buffalo Bills March 10, 2017
DT Lawrence Guy Baltimore Ravens March 11, 2017
RB Rex Burkhead Cincinnati Bengals March 14, 2017
RB Mike Gillislee Buffalo Bills April 24, 2017
WR Devin Street Indianapolis Colts May 2, 2017
C James Ferentz Denver Broncos May 18, 2017
WR DeAndrew White New England Patriots May 21, 2017
WR Andrew Hawkins Cleveland Browns May 24, 2017
LB David Harris New York Jets June 21, 2017
DE Caleb Kidder Minnesota Vikings July 26, 2017
WR Tony Washington Jacksonville Jaguars July 27, 2017
WR K. J. Maye Tennessee Titans July 30, 2017
DE Michael Bart Arizona Cardinals August 28, 2017
DE Nick Usher Seattle Seahawks August 28, 2017
RB Brandon Bolden New England Patriots Re-signed September 4, 2017
QB Brian Hoyer San Francisco 49ers November 1, 2017
DE Ricky Jean Francois Green Bay Packers November 7, 2017
TE Martellus Bennett Green Bay Packers November 9, 2017
DE Eric Lee Buffalo Bills November 21, 2017
LB Nicholas Grigsby Baltimore Ravens November 28, 2017
OG Jason King Baltimore Ravens November 28, 2017
LB Jonathan Freeny Jacksonville Jaguars Re-signed December 6, 2017
WR Kenny Britt Cleveland Browns December 12, 2017
DE Ricky Jean Francois New England Patriots Re-signed December 13, 2017OLB James Harrison Pittsburgh Steelers Signed December 26, 2017

 

[WaterfallJumper]

. . . continued . . .



Departures

OT Sebastian Vollmer Released March 3, 2017
RB Tyler Gaffney Waived March 20, 2017
OG Tre' Jackson Waived April 18, 2017
TE Michael Williams Released May 12, 2017
TE Rob Housler Released May 17, 2017
OG Chris Barker Released May 18, 2017
WR Devin Street Released May 24, 2017
DE Corey Vereen Waived June 5, 2017
WR DeAndrew White Released June 22, 2017
OG Chase Farris Released July 20, 2017
WR Andrew Hawkins Retired July 25, 2017
OLB/DE Rob Ninkovich Retired July 30, 2017
SS Dwayne Thomas Released August 11, 2017[
DE Kony Ealy Released August 26, 2017
DE Caleb Kidder Released August 27, 2017
TE Matt Lengel Released August 27, 2017
OLB Christian Kuntz Released August 29, 2017
FB Glenn Gronkowski Released September 1, 2017
TE Sam Cotton Released September 1, 2017
OT Max Rich Released September 1, 2017
OG Jason King Released September 1, 2017
DE Michael Bart Released September 1, 2017
DT Josh Augusta Released September 1, 2017
FS Jason Thompson Released September 1, 2017
OLB Jonathan Freeny Released September 1, 2017
WR Tony Washington Released September 2, 2017
WR K.J. Maye Released September 2, 2017
OLB Trevor Bates Released September 2, 2017
RB D.J. Foster Released September 2, 2017
RB LeShun Daniels Released September 2, 2017
CB D.J. Killings Released September 2, 2017
OT Andrew Jelks Released September 2, 2017
CB Kenny Moore Released September 2, 2017
OG Jamil Douglas Released September 2, 2017
SS Damarius Travis Released September 2, 2017
WR Cody Hollister Released September 2, 2017
FS David Jones Released September 2, 2017
DE Nick Usher Released September 2, 2017
WR Austin Carr Released September 2, 2017
TE James O'Shaughnessy Released September 2, 2017
DE Geneo Grissom Released September 2, 2017
HB Brandon Bolden Released September 2, 2017
OG Ted Karras Released September 2, 2017
C James Ferentz Released September 2, 2017
MLB Brooks Ellis Released September 2, 2017
DT Woodrow Hamilton Released September 2, 2017
DT Darius Kilgo Released September 2, 2017
CB William Likely Released September 2, 2017
WR Devin Lucien Released September 2, 2017
OT Conor McDermott Released September 2, 2017
DE Geneo Grissom Waived November 9, 2017
DE Cassius Marsh Released November 21, 2017
DE Ricky Jean-Francois Released December 2, 2017
OG Jason King Released December 2, 2017
WR Bernard Reedy Released December 13, 2017
OLB Jonathan Freeny Released December 13, 2017
OLB Trevor Reilly Waived December 26, 2017




Final wall of text, regarding the Patriots draft success. Even with this level of churn, and with the reliance on trades and free agency to fill out the roster, the Patriots still have a strong track record for success in the draft and in undrafted free agency. Consider the roster, broken down by draft/UDFA composition. This is a significant portion of the team (40 players), and if they were all healthy, there would almost be enough players to field the entire active 46 player roster. An all-drafted/UDFA team would be pretty competitive, all things considered, even without the FA signings. Sure, there have been some misses, but overall, the Patriots are well constructed through talented, productive draft picks.


QB: Brady, Hoyer

RB: Brandon Bolden, James White

WR: Julian Edelman (IR), Malcolm Mitchell (IR), Matthew Slater

TE: Rob Gronkowski, Jacob Hollister

OL: Antonio Garcia T (NFI), David Andrews, Cole Croston, Cameron Fleming, Ted Karras, Shaq Mason, Nate Solder, Marcus Cannon (IR), Joe Thuney (this goes to show how good Scar is, and how much trust Belichick has in his evaluations)

DL: Malcom Brown, Vincent Valentine (IR), Adam Butler, Trey Flowers, Geneo Grissom, Deatrich Wise Jr, Derek Rivers (IR)

LB: Harvey Langi (NFI), Dont'a Hightower (IR), Elandon Roberts

DB: Malcolm Butler, Jonathan Jones, Cyrus Jones (IR), Devin McCourty, Brandon King, Patrick Chung, Duron Harmon, Jordan Richards, Nate Ebner (IR)

ST: Ryan Allen, Joe Cardona, Stephen Gostkowski

 

[jimnance]

It has to be part of the discussion because it's been the elephant in the room for many years. It's not a schtick.

Do you really want to never score in the 1st qtr. of a Super Bowl or need to move a mountain to win a Super Bowl every time they're in one?

I have more confidence the D than the offense, until I see otherwise. I saw an inconsistent offense all the way down the stretch for like 6 games or so, while the D had injuries everywhere.

Part of it is tied to Hogan missing and Mitchell, for that matter at the X.

Brady is without question the GOAT, but now the pressure is on, and I think he will deliver in the postseason.

The red zone offense HAS to improve if they're going to even be able to beat a defense like Jax or Minnesota.

How is an objective take of the offense down the stretch "venom" towards Brady? He leads the offense, so of course he is part of the discussion.

Elephant in the room? Are you serious? Are we talking about the same Tom Brady who always takes responsibility for his mistakes?
Even takes responsibility for mistakes made by others, more so than ANY QB I've ever seen(been watching NFL since early 60's)?
The same Brady who's coached hard by BB and is even mocked by him in meetings because the GOAT coach knows he can take it?
Wow,that's some elephant you got there,pal.
I won't rehash all your snide remarks about Brady, but the one about "all these other probowlqbs,rothlisburger,Rodgers,Brees,etc,don't have this problem". I'll let that stand by itself. It shows you have some kind of bug up your ass about Brady.
Brady gets called out all the time when he screws up. But you got some issues man.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Oy, can this thread get back to practice news? The rest of it has pulled a Fonzi and jumped the shark.

I think practice is tomorrow.

Thank god.

 

[TB12TheGoat]

Elephant in the room? Are you serious? Are we talking about the same Tom Brady who always takes responsibility for his mistakes?
Even takes responsibility for mistakes made by others, more so than ANY QB I've ever seen(been watching NFL since early 60's)?
The same Brady who's coached hard by BB and is even mocked by him in meetings because the GOAT coach knows he can take it?
Wow,that's some elephant you got there,pal.
I won't rehash all your snide remarks about Brady, but the one about "all these other probowlqbs,rothlisburger,Rodgers,Brees,etc,don't have this problem". I'll let that stand by itself. It shows you have some kind of bug up your ass about Brady.
Brady gets called out all the time when he screws up. But you got some issues man.

Brady ****ed his girl

 

[Chris Stevenson]

Elephant in the room? Are you serious? Are we talking about the same Tom Brady who always takes responsibility for his mistakes?
Even takes responsibility for mistakes made by others, more so than ANY QB I've ever seen(been watching NFL since early 60's)?
The same Brady who's coached hard by BB and is even mocked by him in meetings because the GOAT coach knows he can take it?
Wow,that's some elephant you got there,pal.
I won't rehash all your snide remarks about Brady, but the one about "all these other probowlqbs,rothlisburger,Rodgers,Brees,etc,don't have this problem". I'll let that stand by itself. It shows you have some kind of bug up your ass about Brady.
Brady gets called out all the time when he screws up. But you got some issues man.

I am talking about the fact the D has been maligned due to a combo of things, but also how the offense has hit a wall at times in the postseason in the past and WHY that happens. And, I am not talking 2009, 2013 or 2015 with so many injuries or a the forefront of a rebuild in 2009/2010 either.

Yes, we are talking about Brady and him blaming his center for a supposed bad snap down in Atlanta, when he pulled back too quick and said "we need to work on that". Nope. You pulled back too quick, Tom. More than once early that year, too.

I am talking about in games where the offenses disappears for long stretches and the D has its butt pinned to the wall defending short fields over and over in an offensive era. It just happened for 6 straight games to end the season while the D battled, so undermanned.

Brady has been protected by Reiss for years and years, and the rhetoric was alwasy to go after BB and the D. The media has also protected these facts from being fairly analyzed.

Fact 1: The D played well enough in SB 42 and SB 46 to win, certainly better than what the offense did. And, the 2007 and 2011 title games, as long ago as those were, are even more true. So, please stop acting like Brady has been perfect and is above reproach here. You Bradyites are kinda creepy, to be honest.

Fact 2: The national media attacks BB, not Brady as much. So, everyone just thinks what the media says is true which is why fans from other teams are running around right now saying things like "The Pats D is awful", when it clearly isn't.

I just sit back and laugh and then watch the D shock people come postseason.

I have no issues. I am good.

Brady has under-performed in postseasons in the past. It's a fact and history cannot be changed. With Garropolo now gone, the pressure is back on Brady.

We shall see how he reacts. I say he reacts well looking to show Garropolo in waiting was NOT the thing that made him a better postseason QB from 2014-2016.

 

[Chris Stevenson]

Part II: Draft problems! BB the GM is killing BB the HC! and other hawt taeks

I'm responding to your post in order to rant about the draft. Don't take it too personally. I just want to address two things briefly: 1) success rates, and 2) team building. They're intertwined, but too often people mistake the one for the other.

Belichick's hit rate is just fine. He has misses, sometimes bad misses, but so does everyone else. He brings in quality, contributing players at roughly the league average. The problem with citing his draft record, however, is that the draft has been so overblown that it overshadows roster building. The draft is overrated.

Look, I get it; I'm a huge draftnik. My favorite place on this site is the draft sub forum. I watch every single cut up released by Draftbreakdown. I really, really enjoying scouting prospects and projecting success. But a draft class is only one small part of a GM's responsibilities, and in fact, it may be the least important.

The 90 man roster is never comprised of more than about 10 - 20% of drafted or undrafted rookies each year. We frequently bring in more FA signings and trades than we do draft picks. These are usually better investments, anyway, because they require less development/projection, and understand already the dynamics and requirements of pro football.

Why would anyone venture into the draft, then? Well, player contracts are significantly cheaper. There's great value in paying next to nothing for fresh talent. Four years (plus one, for 1st round options) of contribution is a great way to reinforce key positions on the team. There's also inherent risk. Imagine a corporation signing a new CEO fresh out of MBA school and handing him the keys to the company -- it's enormously presumptuous to assume that he will succeed, even though it can work out.

Furthermore, the Patriots grade differently from most teams in the league. Resident draft (and politics) guru @manxman2601 posted a nice breakdown recently, so I'll link to his post: 2018 Draft Prospect Thread

Essentially, they bypass the usual discussions of upside, and cut to the heart of the matter: Can the player contribute in a designated role? If so, how quickly? Someone who can start early in his career will receive a higher grade. So, "3rd rounder" or "5th rounder" means almost nothing to the Patriots. If a guy can contribute, then you take him when you have a draft pick. Waiting around to get better perceived market value is a good way to lose out on someone who can be part of your plan. It drives the fanbase crazy, but so what.

Belichick trades up as often as he trades down, historically. We like to joke about a 1st rounder turning into 2 3rds, 3 4ths, a 5th next year, and an extra bag of footballs for the practice field, but Belichick isn't afraid to go get his guy when he deems it appropriate. Sometimes it works. Sometimes it doesn't. But that's just life.

Additionally, consider that the Patriots run of sustained success means picking late 20s or early 30s almost every year for Belichick's tenure, which often means no chance at the "can't miss" or "unlimited upside" draft prospects. Whenever Belichick has received a high draft pick, however, he's made the most of it, picking up solid to exceptional players (Seymour, Warren, Mayo, Solder, etc) who were key parts of championship runs. According to the admittedly outdated draft slot trade chart, the 32nd pick is less than half the value of the 12th overall pick. Parity works against Belichick the drafter.

Consider also that Belichick needs to balance the budget, not just collect talent. The Patriots are extremely disciplined with their cap management, and they don't just mortgage their future for the sake of short term success. Just as the draft is a small portion of the overall team building process, player acquisition is similarly only one duty of the GM. Belichick has crafted a more sustainable system of player acquisition and management than anyone else in the salary cap era.

Look at how many players we're slated to lose next year, at minimum. More could retire, or perhaps fall to the injury bug, etc. The draft can't account for replenishing all those spots. 2018 NFL Free Agents Tracker

Continued below . . .

Did you write this?

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Did you write this?

Do you write your own posts? Do you have a ghost writer? I'm not sure what you're implying. Why wouldn't I write my own posts?

 

[RobertWeathers]

I am talking about the fact the D has been maligned due to a combo of things, but also how the offense has hit a wall at times in the postseason in the past and WHY that happens. And, I am not talking 2009, 2013 or 2015 with so many injuries or a the forefront of a rebuild in 2009/2010 either.

Yes, we are talking about Brady and him blaming his center for a supposed bad snap down in Atlanta, when he pulled back too quick and said "we need to work on that". Nope. You pulled back too quick, Tom. More than once early that year, too.

I am talking about in games where the offenses disappears for long stretches and the D has its butt pinned to the wall defending short fields over and over in an offensive era. It just happened for 6 straight games to end the season while the D battled, so undermanned.

Brady has been protected by Reiss for years and years, and the rhetoric was alwasy to go after BB and the D. The media has also protected these facts from being fairly analyzed.

Fact 1: The D played well enough in SB 42 and SB 46 to win, certainly better than what the offense did. And, the 2007 and 2011 title games, as long ago as those were, are even more true. So, please stop acting like Brady has been perfect and is above reproach here. You Bradyites are kinda creepy, to be honest.

Fact 2: The national media attacks BB, not Brady as much. So, everyone just thinks what the media says is true which is why fans from other teams are running around right now saying things like "The Pats D is awful", when it clearly isn't.

I just sit back and laugh and then watch the D shock people come postseason.

I have no issues. I am good.

Brady has under-performed in postseasons in the past. It's a fact and history cannot be changed. With Garropolo now gone, the pressure is back on Brady.

We shall see how he reacts. I say he reacts well looking to show Garropolo in waiting was NOT the thing that made him a better postseason QB from 2014-2016.

When @AndyJohnson and @Deus Irae called you out I wasn't sure.

Now I am.

You are a closet Garrapolite and a Brady-Hater.

This post is the most ridiculously inaccurate, over-the-top critical assessment of Tom I have every read.

I can carve up every single line of your post with facts and you will just complain that there is actual debate

I swear you are Seth Wickersham.

 

[Chris Stevenson]

Josh has done a great job this year.

That word gets thrown around way too often with him. He has the GOAT, BB, continuity on the staff, a HOF TE, a loaded RB group.....I mean, what on earth here? How many toys does one OC need to show they can run the offense with the QB?

I would argue he's been good, but nowhere near great. We shall see how he does with Hogan back, and maybe even Mitchell.

 

[Chris Stevenson]

When @AndyJohnson and @Deus Irae called you out I wasn't sure.

Now I am.

You are a closet Garrapolite and a Brady-Hater.

This post is the most ridiculously inaccurate, over-the-top critical assessment of Tom I have every read.

I can carve up every single line of your post with facts and you will just complain that there is actual debate

I swear you are Seth Wickersham.

Not at all. I just don't believe Brady's postseason improvements from 2014-2016 and 2 SBs in the 3 years are a coincidence with Garropolo standing behind him.

BB knew what he was doing with that draft pick.

Brady's INT rate skyrocketed from 2007-2012 as compared to 2001-2006. It's not a fact you can dispute.