I am a Saints fan so bias - and I don't even mind if Mahomes wins it over Brees, both are clearly deserving, however -
This is basically the same exact scenario that played out in 2011 with Rodgers and Brees. Brees had better volume numbers and led a historically good offense (they broke the team offensive yardage record that year) but Rodgers had one more win and better efficiency numbers.
Now we're seeing nearly the same situation, only with Brees on the other side of the debate, and yet it seems like most people feel like Mahomes is the favorite. I just hate the inconsistency of that.
Brees has been deserving of serious MVP consideration 7 times in his career: 2006, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2013, 2017 and this year. And it seems like every time he's in the conversation the argument shifts. One year it's because volume stats aren't good enough. The next it's because efficiency isn't good enough. The next is because the other guy's team had one more win than his team. The next is because his hairline has receded too much, or some other damn thing.
Having said that, the only one that he egregiously got shorted on was 2009 when he was clearly better than Manning by every measure. The second that SB ended I think the voters went "whoops, we messed up" so if Brees does get it this year it'll be at least partly a makeup call.