Julio Jones (June 6 Update - Traded to the Titans)

[Sicilian]

Julio Jones would have been the Patriots leading receiver last year, despite playing injured and only playing in 9 games. Brandin Cooks brought a #1 pick in trade. Your starting point was insanity. I'm trying to bring you back from there. There's a difference between teams trying to draft a trade price down and fans just talking crazy.


And, unless you haven't been reading, there's no way you don't know what the point about those first round picks was, given the context.

Brandin Cooks was 24, coming off a better (or at least healthier) season than Jones is, and was making a fraction of the money. The two are not comparable. Also, the Patriots at that point had Tom Brady and had just won a Super Bowl. They were contenders, looking to add a piece. We don't know what Mac Jones is yet, which means we don't know if we're going to have a super bowl contending team before Julio's contact expires. I value a first round pick more than that, at this point in time. It's not like I'm saying there's no price worth it for Julio Jones, I just draw the line one round lower than you do (maybe not even a full round if a later pick needs to be included as well). You call this "insane". I disagree, and seemingly so do most, if not all other teams, otherwise there would be no question that the Falcons would be getting a 1 for him.

 

[captain stone]

Is today the day??

I think its tomorrow.

Tomorrow never comes

"Yesterday, today was tomorrow...And tomorrow, today will be yesterday...Oh!"

- George Harrison

 

[Sicilian]

"Yesterday, today was tomorrow...And tomorrow, today will be yesterday...Oh!"

- George Harrison

"And what if there IS no tomorrow? There wasn't one today!"

-Phil Connors

 

[Deus Irae]

Brandin Cooks was 24, coming off a better (or at least healthier) season than Jones is, and was making a fraction of the money. The two are not comparable.

Not comparable?


Jones is the better player, with a better long term situation for his team (3 years on the deal, only $2m guaranteed after this season). If they aren't comparable, it's because Jones is worth so much more than was Cooks.

Also, the Patriots at that point had Tom Brady and had just won a Super Bowl. They were contenders, looking to add a piece. We don't know what Mac Jones is yet, which means we don't know if we're going to have a super bowl contending team before Julio's contact expires. I value a first round pick more than that, at this point in time. It's not like I'm saying there's no price worth it for Julio Jones, I just draw the line one round lower than you do (maybe not even a full round if a later pick needs to be included as well). You call this "insane". I disagree, and seemingly so do most, if not all other teams, otherwise there would be no question that the Falcons would be getting a 1 for him.

That's not how bargaining works. You know this, as you've been watching Belichick all these years.

 

[50-yard-line]

I don't exactly follow the life and times of Julio Jones but I think he played this brilliantly. Here's my understanding:

He signed a 3 year extension with the Falcons, which got him a $25 million signing bonus. But now it looks like he won't play a single snap of that 3 year extension in Atlanta. So the Falcons essentially paid $25 million for a big fat load of nothing.

Now Jones is expected to be traded. Well I guaran-goddamn-tee you that he isn't going to say "I already got my signing bonus for the next 3 years so I will happily play out the 3 years I already signed on for on my current deal." He is going to pretty much want to start fresh or else whatever team he goes to is simply inheriting Atlanta's headache.

That, IMHO, is the toughest part of the deal. I have to believe Atlanta has given potential trading partners permission to talk to Jones. But Jones, IMHO, is going to want UFA money. No team is going to give up that much money PLUS a 1st rounder. Quite honestly, I think you'd be an idiot to give up anything more than a 5th rounder when we assume Jones is also going to want to get PAID.

He signed the extension in 2019, played two of the three years.

This is the last year of any real guaranteed money, which is why he'll likely want a new deal.

 

[jimnance]

"And what if there IS no tomorrow? There wasn't one today!"

-Phil Connors

But there was yesterday.

 

[Deus Irae]

Is today the day??

 

[XLIX]

He signed the extension in 2019, played two of the three years.

I don't think that is accurate. If it was, he would only have 1 year left on his current deal.

It was an extension, not a new deal. So yeah, he signed it in 2019 but it covered 2021-2023, which is why he currently has 3 years, $38 million left. So if the Falcons do indeed trade him, then they gave him a big signing bonus in 2019 for a 3 year extension when he will spend all 3 of those years with another team.

This is the last year of any real guaranteed money, which is why he'll likely want a new deal.

IMHO, he wants a new deal because he wants more money. I do not believe for a second he would be happy if a team traded for him and simply said "we are keeping you on the same deal but we will fully guarantee it."

I think for any team, the money Jones will want is a bigger holdup to the trade than the draft picks Atlanta will want. Like I said, no one is going to give a 1st rounder just to inherit Atlanta's headache.

 

[moosekill]

At some point what does it matter what players, who are already under contract want? They have very little leverage, they signed the deal, they have to live with it or leave football. That is why some contracts have the huge last couple years, the teams either have to pay, or deal with them, or cut them. If the players sign a normal deal it is what it is, if they are worth it, they get the contract, if they aren't worth it, they don't.

 

[Steve102]

Lot's of back and forth on Jones here. Here's my concerns. How long will Jones remain a top producer? How long would the player drafted in exchange remain a top producer? What is the cap cost of both? We have seen the Patriots have managed the cap by traditionally getting guys that produced in excess of their contract. If a FA is getting 70% of market, they will be satisfied if he produces at a 80-85% of the top producers. Value. Having a bunch of guys that are middle of the pack FAs that produce top level results. So if they bring in Jones, does he continue to be a top tier WR producer? Likely. Will he be elite? Unlikely, long term. What are is intangibles? Is he a good teammate, or is he a locker room lawyer? Is he going to do what is asked, or is he going to b!tch that he's not getting the ball?

I would not give up a first for a 32 year old guy who may be elite for 1-2 years, when that same first rounder may be elite for 6-8 years. I would give up a 2-3rd, and possibly a player, but I would also want to make sure the contract is flexible enough that if at age 34 he becomes a shadow of Julio Jones, it's not killing the roster flexibility.

 

[moosekill]

If a player signs a 3 year $36 million dollar contract and gets a $18 million dollar signing bonus, it simply means they get paid $6 million a year in a addition to the $18 million they already got for their contract. It doesn't mean they get to renegotiate a deal because they are only getting $6 million a year for the last 2 years.

 

[Deus Irae]

If a player signs a 3 year $36 million dollar contract and gets a $18 million dollar signing bonus, it simply means they get paid $6 million a year in a addition to the $18 million they already got for their contract. It doesn't mean they get to renegotiate a deal because they are only getting $6 million a year for the last 2 years.

In most cases, high money contracts that are frontloaded have basically just got back ends designed to allow for further negotiations after year 3 or so. Few teams (the Patriots are one of them) actually try wielding those last seasons as weapons against top talent playing up to their deals. It's been part of the tradeoff for not having full guarantees. And for that matter, the Patriots did some maneuvering to give Gilmore more money last year.

 

[ralmat55]

At some point what does it matter what players, who are already under contract want? They have very little leverage, they signed the deal, they have to live with it or leave football. That is why some contracts have the huge last couple years, the teams either have to pay, or deal with them, or cut them. If the players sign a normal deal it is what it is, if they are worth it, they get the contract, if they aren't worth it, they don't.

It does matter because whoever acquires him will need his approval on a contract redo to fit him under their cap.

 

[Deus Irae]

It does matter because whoever acquires him will need his approval on a contract redo to fit him under their cap.

Assuming OTC hasn't missed something, 11 different teams could fit him under their current cap without any sort of redo. Adjustments/cuts might need to be made down the road in order to free up money to cover injury signings and the like, but that's not likely to be much of a problem to teams that have signed most of their draftees already.

 

[Grogan14]

Lot's of back and forth on Jones here. Here's my concerns. How long will Jones remain a top producer? How long would the player drafted in exchange remain a top producer? What is the cap cost of both? We have seen the Patriots have managed the cap by traditionally getting guys that produced in excess of their contract. If a FA is getting 70% of market, they will be satisfied if he produces at a 80-85% of the top producers. Value. Having a bunch of guys that are middle of the pack FAs that produce top level results. So if they bring in Jones, does he continue to be a top tier WR producer? Likely. Will he be elite? Unlikely, long term. What are is intangibles? Is he a good teammate, or is he a locker room lawyer? Is he going to do what is asked, or is he going to b!tch that he's not getting the ball?

I would not give up a first for a 32 year old guy who may be elite for 1-2 years, when that same first rounder may be elite for 6-8 years. I would give up a 2-3rd, and possibly a player, but I would also want to make sure the contract is flexible enough that if at age 34 he becomes a shadow of Julio Jones, it's not killing the roster flexibility.

The mid to low first round drafty [ick is not a sure thing. Julio Jones as a very good 1 is close to a sure thing for 2 years.

 

[Deus Irae]

The mid to low first round drafty [ick is not a sure thing. Julio Jones as a very good 1 is close to a sure thing for 2 years.

A lot of people are:

• Confusing the possibility of getting a Kmart Blue Light Special price for a player who's got to be traded with the normal value of that player.
• Cheap as hell when it comes to playing the trading game.
• Just flat silly about player worth.

We see it here all the time, and it's not something that's restricted to the Patsfans.com or the Patriots fan base. What we're seeing with the trades and max/min value claims people are throwing around about Jones is just another in a long, long line of examples.

 

[moosekill]

It does matter because whoever acquires him will need his approval on a contract redo to fit him under their cap.

Not if they don't have to. The Patriots have the cap space to pay for his contract without tweaking his contract, so therefore, they don't have to renegotiate.

But to be honest Deus, many posters here don't understand the cap and the implications of trying to bring in a player on his rookie contract, vs a player on his high value contract. Cooks was on a rookie contract, was cheap and probably had more value than Jones does while being paid $15 million a year. Even though Jones is probably a better player.

 

[Deus Irae]

Not if they don't have to. The Patriots have the cap space to pay for his contract without tweaking his contract, so therefore, they don't have to renegotiate.

But to be honest Deus, many posters here don't understand the cap and the implications of trying to bring in a player on his rookie contract, vs a player on his high value contract. Cooks was on a rookie contract, was cheap and probably had more value than Jones does while being paid $15 million a year. Even though Jones is probably a better player.

Cooks was on the 5th year of his rookie deal. The team that took him was either renting or prepping to pay a 2nd contract.

He did not have more inherent value. What he had was a market that was not being driven by knowledge that the player had requested a trade and the team was up against the cap. Even so, the talent discrepancy was such that he was not close to being a better overall value.

And the history has obviously played out just that way.

 

[XLIX]

If a player signs a 3 year $36 million dollar contract and gets a $18 million dollar signing bonus, it simply means they get paid $6 million a year in a addition to the $18 million they already got for their contract. It doesn't mean they get to renegotiate a deal because they are only getting $6 million a year for the last 2 years.

That's easy to say on a forum, but in the real world you get a lot of players who see themselves as being worth more than what they have left on their deal. Then you have disgruntled superstars and all the aggravation that comes with that. For example, Julio Jones is thinking he is worth more than 3 years, $38 million. He isn't thinking about the signing bonus he got in order to get to this point. That money was paid 2 years ago. It's ancient history.

 

[Deus Irae]