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Julio Jones (June 6 Update - Traded to the Titans)


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It was bargain basement pricing due to the oddities of this year. That meant a very limited pool of participants, particularly since the Falcons wanted him moved into the AFC. So the notion that "every team in the league" was involved in this is incorrect.

There's that, which is true, but the argument he's presenting is even more idiotic.

He's arguing that Bill made a good move because another team made the trade, and that team made the wrong move because they were the only ones willing to go that high. Amost every player acquisition through free agency or trade requires that the acquiring team has offered more than 31 other teams. And the same principle is true of most draft picks.

It's essentially the Winner's Curse argument, and it wouldn't be so terrible if not the incredible waffling used to explain how it applies to Jones but not to everything else, including an offseason which saw the Patriots literally set an NFL spending record to win so many auctions.

Of course, if the Patriots had traded for Jones, the 5D Chess comments would be all over the place. But I guess the goalposts have moved again, from being bold and aggressive and outbidding, to being cautious, risk-averse, penny-pinching, and to always agree with the majority opinion on a player's value.
 
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There's that, which is true, but the argument he's presenting is even more idiotic.

He's arguing that Bill made a good move because another team made the move, and that team made the wrong move because they were the only ones willing to go that high. Amost every player acquisition through free agency or trade requires that the acquiring team has offered more than 31 other teams. And the same principle is true of most draft picks.

It's essentially the Winner's Curse argument, and it wouldn't be so terrible if not the incredible waffling used to explain how it applies to Jones but not to everything else, including an offseason which saw the Patriots literally set an NFL spending record to win so many auctions.

Of course, if the Patriots had traded for Jones, the 5D Chess comments would be all over the place. But I guess the goalposts have moved again, from being bold and aggressive and outbidding, to being cautious, risk-averse, penny-pinching, and to always agree with the majority opinion on a player's value.
Wait, did you make a negative comment about Bill and the Patriots. Holy crap what a revelation. Atlanta lied about having 1st round offers. They didn't. They got Vrabel to take him. The Patriots were one team out of 30 or so who didn't think he was worth what the Titans paid. Move on.
 
From Miguel on Twitter:

Ryan Tannehill’s cap numbers are now:
2021 - $13,883,333
2022 - $41,808,333
2023 - $39,808,334 The Titans pushed $15,616,667 of signing bonus proration onto future caps.
2021 NFL salary cap: $182.5m
2022 NFL salary cap ceiling: $208.2m

Thus, even before we get to 2022, the salary cap has the chance to jump a full $25.7m.
 
"I mean, I like grapes as much as, you know, everybody likes grapes, but it's which grapes when you're -- if you're in that mode, if you're shopping for groceries, as you guys like to write. Those grapes looked like, I mean, something to write about. Nobody argues that. Right team, right situation, could be great. But you always have to say what if the grapes, you know, aren't the right taste. Do you have any questions about the New England Patriots?"
 
Ok let’s put it this way. A 2nd and a 4th and paying his full salary was more than every team in the league, except the Titans were willing to pay. The same three or 4 posters who are still butt hurt about the Brady saga, make this sound like Bill was a complete idiot for not making this deal. It was a lot to pay for an old wr who was injured last year. It doesn’t mean they were all right and Vrabel was wrong. It means Bill was by far in the majority on this decision.
I'm a homer. I defend Bill all the time.

I'm not sure at all that he made the right decision here. JJ is next level talent.

That's said, I guess we'll have to wait and see. Vrabel knows he needs to get over the hump soon because the clock is ticking on his big trick pony, Henry (how long do elite RBs stay healthy?). He's turned TN into a really good team, but he's not beating KC at this point - well, he wasn't, at least, until now, if Jones can get them over that hump.

He took a chance he had to take. Doesn't mean he's wrong at all. It's like Tampa breaking the bank to keep the gang together to try to get one more. It's a good choice in a league where getting to the promised land is extremely hard to do a once-a-generation type of success.

The Pats chose not to take that on - I expect their QB situation had a lot to do with that decision - so I shrug and move along. But I would have loved to watch Julio in a Pats' uniform.
 
well, he wasn't, at least, until now, if Jones can get them over that hump.

Jones will make up for the production they lost with Smith & Davis leaving. So it's not like they didn't have the offense, Vrable better turn that defense around massively because it was atrocious last year


23rd in points allowed
28th in total defense
29th in pass defense
19th in run defense
32nd in 3rd down defense

those are atrocious numbers


The also have a new OC, so who knows how that's gonna work out
 
I don't know the finer points and Xs Os like you, but this was my point even before the Julio Jones talk began. The Patriots have assembled a great offense...as soon as they can find that stud player who can provide that trickle down effect. Algohor is a perfect #2 receiver, kind of like Donte Stallworth in 2007. Meyers is a slippery guy who can get open and would excel with teams worrying about Jones/Algohor. Now add in those two pretty good tight ends, and it's a big problem for defenses. But without that stud player, it's like every guy in the offense is being placed in a role that's a little bit more than he's shown capabable of doing well. They'll be okay but nothing special.

Again, I think it's baffling how people just watched the Gronkowski effect and to some degree the Edelman effect and still aren't understanding this. Maybe it's because those guys weren't traditional receivers like Jones, but it doesn't matter. Great players allow you to be so much more flexible and cover up the defiiciencies of other guys out there.
They definitely allow you to do more and also give you an idea of how defenses might play you bc you know Jones is getting followed by CB1, bracketed and / or getting all eyes on him. Very much like Seattle here. All game they would bracket, especially goal line or switch up looks like Seattle did here.


Focusing on the 2nd play here. At first I thought Seattle was in Cover 6 (quarter, quarter, half = 1 side Cover 2 to boundary side & C4 elsewhere) but this looks like quarters coverage to me Cover 4. Looks like man below, zone up. Maybe MOD = man only deep.

Killer double move. Sells the in-breaking route. Jones runs special in/out - breaking, blaze out routes. He would have scored here easy if the timing was better and Ryan didn't under throw him big time.

Last few routes shows all eyes are still on Jones as well.


Off-coverage and guys still can't get near him. These stems are a thing of beauty. Inside on the first play, outside on the second play. Both sweet but the 2nd play is textbook. Gets right on top of the defenders feet before breaking. Looks quick, powerful coming out of his breaks.

Still capable of taking a screen 20+ and beating a shell/anti-deep play look. Still trucking DB's and very physical. + run blocker.


We would have had an insane 12 personnel package but I still think we play a ton of that this year. It's easily our strength. We'll basically tell teams ... Play us base and we'll box you out and pass to our power forwards. Come in with sub and we're bullying you with big blockers on smaller DB's.

One of the possibilities I really liked was Jones in the slot, Smith detached/slot, Henry & Agholor wide.

Our offense should be unique. It could have been special imo bc of the potential ground game but we should still have a fun offense that dictates package, tempo & possession.
 
"I mean, I like grapes as much as, you know, everybody likes grapes, but it's which grapes when you're -- if you're in that mode, if you're shopping for groceries, as you guys like to write. Those grapes looked like, I mean, something to write about. Nobody argues that. Right team, right situation, could be great. But you always have to say what if the grapes, you know, aren't the right taste. Do you have any questions about the New England Patriots?"
Sounds like sour grapes
 
Jones will make up for the production they lost with Smith & Davis leaving. So it's not like they didn't have the offense, Vrable better turn that defense around massively because it was atrocious last year


23rd in points allowed
28th in total defense
29th in pass defense
19th in run defense
32nd in 3rd down defense

those are atrocious numbers


The also have a new OC, so who knows how that's gonna work out

Smith and Davis don’t command half the attention Julio will get combined. You can still stack the box with those guys that ain’t happening with Julio/AJ out there
 
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