Julio Jones (June 6 Update - Traded to the Titans)

[carmelo15]

Let's imagine that Mike Vrabel was the generational, hoodie-wearing genius coach/personnel influencer and Bill Belichick were the big, lumbering linebacker jock. What would the storyline be, if it weren't for reputation, based on these moves:

-Mike Vrabel declined to extend Jonnu Smith, a role player who never secured more than 500 receiving yards, and he declined to match an offer from the Patriots, who made a very aggressive, over-the-top offer of $12.5M for a player who has never been among the best at his position and not even the best on his team. Since the Titans patiently kept that money for other uses, they were able to take on the contract of Julio Jones, a sure-fire Hall of Fame player and All-Decade WR, whose trade market and salary were low and affordable.

-Bill Belichick broke the bank for numerous non-star players at the skill positions, hoping to rebuild through free agency, including the big contract for Smith. Later, the Patriots were interested in acquiring Julio Jones, who would have been far and away the best player of their offseason and vastly improved the passing game, but they were unwilling to part with a second round pick and specifically were concerned about Jones's $15M salary, which wasn't close to the biggest cap hits among elite wide receivers and would have been a bit more than what they paid for Alghohor, Henry, and Smith.

Someone will have to explain why these narratives are false...or at the beginning of the offseason would any of you, with a straight face, have picked any of these good-not-great players over Julio Jones? I don't think so, though I'm sure the revisionist takes would be comical.

Nobody’s will respond to this we already have pages on how a top 5 WR is gonna hit some cliff that would’ve got you banned on here if Julio was traded hear

 

[moosekill]

Ok let’s put it this way. A 2nd and a 4th and paying his full salary was more than every team in the league, except the Titans were willing to pay. The same three or 4 posters who are still butt hurt about the Brady saga, make this sound like Bill was a complete idiot for not making this deal. It was a lot to pay for an old wr who was injured last year. It doesn’t mean they were all right and Vrabel was wrong. It means Bill was by far in the majority on this decision.

 

[IllegalContact]

Dude sucks

 

[Lagaffe_07]

I think it clearly shows that Bill doesn’t think that we are an all in contender yet. If we were in a similar position and Brady was still here I think he would have pull the trigger. In my opinion Jones became available a year to early.

Even if Bill has added a lot of talent, we still have some question mark and most importantly at QB. We can’t be 100% sure that all the FA signings will work and we are not sure what level of QB play we are gonna get. I don’t think Bill want to « mortage » the futur until he has some confidence that this team is a Julio Jones type of player away.

 

[moosekill]

I think it clearly shows that Bill doesn’t think that we are an all in contender yet. If we were in a similar position and Brady was still here I think he would have pull the trigger. In my opinion Jones became available a year to early.

Even if Bill has added a lot of talent, we still have some question mark and most importantly at QB. We can’t be 100% sure that all the FA signings will work and we are not sure what level of QB we are gonna get. I don’t think Bill want to « mortage » the futur until he has some confidence that this team is a Julio Jones type of player away.

Not at all. I think it shows that Bill thinks the price paid for Julio, was more than his value to his team was. Bill probably thinks he has a pretty good set of wr's, not great but pretty good, and he believes he can win with that group.

 

[moosekill]

There is a relative value to every decision made. Not to pick on BGC, but his comments sound more like draft comments, and seem to be echoed by many posters who get pissy whenever we don't outbid every other team for a specific free agent or in a trade.

In the draft, the prices are set, and you attempt to pick the best players. In free agency and in trades, the cost of that player as well as the length of commitment to them is of huge importance.

Yes Julio is better than most of the other wide receivers out there, but he costs more than most of them too. Allocating $15 million this year, and more the following two years, or reworking his contract so his contract is stretched out, is a huge part of the decision when you decide whether or not to pick him up.

The goal is to win the super bowl. If your team is a player away from contending at the trade deadline, then the value of that player is probably higher to your team than it would be before the season starts and you don't have a great idea what you actually have.

 

[captain stone]

Bill probably thinks he has a pretty good set of WRs, not great but pretty good, and he believes he can win with that group.

If he still had TFB as his QB, then he might - might - be able to win with this group...But with these QBs, this group isn't nearly good enough.

 

[amfootball]

I think it clearly shows that Bill doesn’t think that we are an all in contender yet. If we were in a similar position and Brady was still here I think he would have pull the trigger. In my opinion Jones became available a year to early.

Even if Bill has added a lot of talent, we still have some question mark and most importantly at QB. We can’t be 100% sure that all the FA signings will work and we are not sure what level of QB play we are gonna get. I don’t think Bill want to « mortage » the futur until he has some confidence that this team is a Julio Jones type of player away.

I get what you are saying but no matter what state the team is in currently, you always get a HoFer talent if you can especially for the deal the Titans got him on. I am not sure they were a Julio away either but getting him puts them right in the mix for the top contenders in the AFC.

 

[Brotherblues]

The official details:

#6: Cleveland → Atlanta. (D) Cleveland traded this pick to Atlanta for Atlanta's first (27th overall, which later became #26), second (59th) and fourth-rounder (124th) and also Atlanta's first- and fourth-round selections in 2012.


EDIT: Didn't see Wozzy's post #621 before posting this one, sorry.

So it was one additional first to move up from the bottom to the top, not "all those 1s." Hefty price nonetheless. Nabbed a first ballot hall of famer so it was worth it though.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

No one said you don’t watch college film. My comment was directed at Julio Jones. He’s not in college.

I was just making a point. The "watch film" phrase gets old when there's 0 insight behind it.

I got the idea for a big slot because he couldn’t go deep effectively last year, not from how many times he lined up in the slot. He looked like a big 31 year old possession receiver last year and the Patriots already have two young developing TEs who can catch the ball plus NA and Bourne. Was Jones just slowed by the 2020 injuries or has he declined? If you think he is the player he was 2-3 years ago he’s definitely worth what the Titans traded for him and what they’ll have to pay to him. I have some doubts but we’ll see.

I'll post some clips after work from last year that shows a guy who is still dominate. The idea that he's Q Bolden in his later years or a big slot is just off.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

There is a relative value to every decision made. Not to pick on BGC, but his comments sound more like draft comments, and seem to be echoed by many posters who get pissy whenever we don't outbid every other team for a specific free agent or in a trade.

In the draft, the prices are set, and you attempt to pick the best players. In free agency and in trades, the cost of that player as well as the length of commitment to them is of huge importance.

Yes Julio is better than most of the other wide receivers out there, but he costs more than most of them too. Allocating $15 million this year, and more the following two years, or reworking his contract so his contract is stretched out, is a huge part of the decision when you decide whether or not to pick him up.

The goal is to win the super bowl. If your team is a player away from contending at the trade deadline, then the value of that player is probably higher to your team than it would be before the season starts and you don't have a great idea what you actually have.

15 this year, 12 next year I believe. And when he gets his extension it'll be right around those numbers. It's not 1994 anymore. That's not bad at all for a player like Jones.

Atlanta isn't getting rid of Jones. Jones is getting rid of Atlanta. They're a mess that needed to trade arguably the goat of that franchise to sign draft picks. The team is a mess similar to Oakland and the Mack trade. Mack was a top 40-50 player last year and Oakland is still looking like a mess trying to replace him.

We just spent a ton of money on guys that have been injured, iffy production. Nothing wrong with spending on proven elite players even if they are 30+.

Also don't worry about "picking on" me. You're trying to keep up with me. Not the other way around.

 

[moosekill]

15 this year, 12 next year I believe. And when he gets his extension it'll be right around those numbers. It's not 1994 anymore. That's not bad at all for a player like Jones.

Atlanta isn't getting rid of Jones. Jones is getting rid of Atlanta. They're a mess that needed to trade arguably the goat of that franchise to sign draft picks. The team is a mess similar to Oakland and the Mack trade. Mack was a top 40-50 player last year and Oakland is still looking like a mess trying to replace him.

We just spent a ton of money on guys that have been injured, iffy production. Nothing wrong with spending on proven elite players even if they are 30+.

Also don't worry about "picking on" me. You're trying to keep up with me. Not the other way around.

Lol, that is probably correct! It may be a good deal, but all the other teams disagreed for whatever reason. I wish they had gotten him, but if they win the next three superbowls I will quickly forgive them.

 

[Deus Irae]

Ok let’s put it this way. A 2nd and a 4th and paying his full salary was more than every team in the league, except the Titans were willing to pay. The same three or 4 posters who are still butt hurt about the Brady saga, make this sound like Bill was a complete idiot for not making this deal. It was a lot to pay for an old wr who was injured last year. It doesn’t mean they were all right and Vrabel was wrong. It means Bill was by far in the majority on this decision.

It was bargain basement pricing due to the oddities of this year. That meant a very limited pool of participants, particularly since the Falcons wanted him moved into the AFC. So the notion that "every team in the league" was involved in this is incorrect.

 

[Deus Irae]

Hey, look! The Titans found some miraculous way to free up cap space.

The Titans gave Ryan Tannehill a new target over the weekend and they are reworking the quarterback’s contract to fit Julio Jones under the salary cap.


Ian Rapoport of NFL Media reports that the team has restructured Tannehill’s contract. He was set to make a salary of $24.5 million this season, but converting a portion of that to a signing bonus created more than $15 million in cap space for this season.

Titans restructure Ryan Tannehill's contract - ProFootballTalk

If only the Patriots had the ability to do such things, they might have been able to do it themselves, either this year or next.

 

[mgteich]

I get what you are saying but no matter what state the team is in currently, you always get a HoFer talent if you can especially for the deal the Titans got him on. I am not sure they were a Julio away either but getting him puts them right in the mix for the top contenders in the AFC.

Perhaps we need a poll.

OPTION 1
Give up a 2nd and 4th for Julio, and pay him $15M this year
Be prepared to renegotiate after 2021 and cut him or pay him $15M AAV for 2022 and 2023.

OPTION 2
Find other uses for the picks and the $15 AAV
==============================
My WAG is that the media is correct. Belichick had little interest in Option 1.

Personally, I'd much rather the $15M in 2022 and 2023 be used on Gilmore, and that the extension 9probably through 2024) be signed soon.

 

[borg]

I think it clearly shows that Bill doesn’t think that we are an all in contender yet

Or......
Bill's lack of action clearly shows Bill is a historian and uses past experiences in his decision making process.

At age 33, Randy Moss demanded a contract extension and Bill cut bait immediately.
History clearly shows Bill made the right call on two fronts...
1) Physically, Moss bonked/deteriorated quickly
2) Financially, NE avoided a debilitating contract extension given Moss' anemic production in his final years

Jones turns 33 next year
Jones is under contract for $38 mill over next 3 years

Other past experiences....
Bill extended 31 year Corey Dillon after his epic 2004 season.....and Dillon was a shell of his former self almost immediately

 

[Deus Irae]

Personally, I'd much rather the $15M in 2022 and 2023 be used on Gilmore, and that the extension 9probably through 2024) be signed soon.

So, to be clear:

You don't want to spend the money on a 33-34 year old HOF wide receiver coming off of a season where he missed a bunch of games, and you'd rather spend that money on a 32-33 year old non-HOF cornerback coming off of a season where he missed a bunch of games.

 

[WinstonSmith]

So, to be clear:

You don't want to spend the money on a 33-34 year old HOF wide receiver coming off of a season where he missed a bunch of games, and you'd rather spend that money on a 32-33 year old non-HOF cornerback coming off of a season where he missed a bunch of games.

Both are on the back nine, although Julio has a 1.7 year head start. 1.7 years is significant for skill position players.

 

[Deus Irae]

Both are on the back nine, although Julio has a 1.7 year head start. 1.7 years is significant for skill position players.

Corners "decline" faster than WRs.

 

[WinstonSmith]

From Miguel on Twitter:

Ryan Tannehill’s cap numbers are now:
2021 - $13,883,333
2022 - $41,808,333
2023 - $39,808,334 The Titans pushed $15,616,667 of signing bonus proration onto future caps.