I am aware of that and that wasn't my point. My point is people focus on that singular play but ignore everything else that had to occur for NE to comeback and win. Hence the face guarding call. A lot of other things went wrong for NE to lose to the Colts some in NE's control some not.
Using your argument, the reality is that only the final play of any game would matter in a "this play cost them the game" sense. I think we usually give a bit more leeway than that.
My point is that focusing on the correct interpretation of a valid call is silly, because there was no change from what should have been. If the proper call is made, it ends up precisely where it was.
In the Colts game, the proper call means that it's not 1st and goal from the 1. You may want to talk about later plays, and you're right, but we're looking at 3rd and 7 from the 19, which means a likely field goal attempt, versus a likely TD (and the TD is what happened).
Can we prove, factually, that the call going the other way means the Patriots win? No. But, if you change that from a TD to a FG, Tom doesn't have to force a pass in that final drive, in hopes of getting a TD. He's able to play for the FG, because the game would have been tied.
Tom, from the Patriots 40, first and 10 with 31 seconds to go, with 1 timeout, and just needing to get into FG range? That's a win.