Do the Patriots Suck at Drafting? (Data From 2012-2017)

[mgteich]

Are talking about the Tavon Wilson who is now playing his 7th year? Chung must be in his 10th. Perhaps, we just don't develop 2nd rounders well enough, especially second round defensive backs.

Also, Gronk was a pretty good 2nd round pick.

It's a fair point, I remember Bill had the entire media force scratching their heads when he drafted Tavon Wilson because it seemed most teams didn't even have him on their draft board. Of course we took it as "Bill knows what he is doing. In Bill we trust."

 

[edkk323]

Post 2, Hot Garbage

Oh my gosh. Look at all the hot garbage you proudly present here. A six year old can make a better argument.

"
2012: I did not keep the doll I wanted.
2013: I broke my doll.
2014: I got this hot doll but I also lost my second favorite doll "

You love crying about all the ****ty dolls you got. What you really want to cry about was that you got ****TIER toys than OTHERS. But you just do not have the brain cell to go that far. So you just keep crying about the ****ty dolls you got.

Cry a little be more.

 

[Jackson 2]

The topic of the Patriots being terrible at drafting comes up in almost every post. Whenever I stated my argument and reasoning, someone always typed “we were either average or below average” without giving any circumstantial evidence.

I spent one hour gathering all the data of the 1st to 200th draftees from 2012 to 2017. I used pro-football-reference.com’s weighted career approximate value (CarAV). CarAV is computed by adding the 100% AV of one player’s best yr, 95% of his second best, 90% of his third best and so on.

Explanations:
1. CarAV favors the veterans. They have more time to produce AV.
2. I need to use some kind of benchmark instead of being a troll without any proof. CarAV is as good as any. CarAV might be biased but will be biased for every players and every team.
4. Why 2012 to 2017? Why not 2013-2016? Why not 2012, 2014 and 2016? You can always nitpick some year to make a team look bad.
5. Even though we can draft good players, we might not be able to keep them. This post is about drafting.
6. Injury spares no one.
7. But we truly suck at it by drafting IR-Dowling, Tavon Wilson, Jordan Richards and Cyrus Johns. LOL.


The total players: 1200

The total CarAV of the other 31 teams:11253

The average of the 31 teams: 363

The total CarAV of the NEP: 367


Things went against us:

We picked at bottom very year.

We had one 1st round stolen in 2016.

We never needed to pick a starting QB who could produce a large CarAV if hit.

Jimmy G got hurt too often.


Compare to some good teams

Rams 478
Seahawks 449
Texans 438
Packers 438
Jags 426
Vikings 424
Chiefs 391
One Time Happy SB Champs 374
Patriots 367
Ravens 363
Colts 336
Steelers 331
Falcons 323
Saints 321
Chargers 316
Broncos 279


Conclusion: We are actually pretty good at drafting given all the circumstances. If you disagree, please provide some HARD evidence.



The List
2012
Round1 Dont'a Hightower
Round 1 Chandler Jones
Round 2 Tavon Wilson
2013
Round2 Jamie Collins
Round2 Aaron Dobson
Round3 Logan Ryan
Round3 Duron Harmon
Round4 Josh Boyce
Round7 Michael Buchanan
Round7 Steve Beauharnais
"Above AVG"
2014
Round1 29 Dominique Easley
Round2 62 Jimmy Garoppolo
Round4 105 Bryan Stork
Round4 130 James White
Round4 140 Cameron Fleming
"Above AVG"
2015
Round 1: DT Malcom Brown, Texas
Round 2: SS Jordan Richards, Stanford
Round 3: DE Geneo Grissom, Oklahoma
Round 4: DE Trey Flowers, Arkansas
Round 4: OG Tre' Jackson, Florida State
Round 4: OG Shaq Mason, Georgia Tech
Round 5: LS Joe Cardona, Navy
"Four starters but one 2rd bust, AVG"
2016
Round2 Cyrus Jones
Round3 Joe Thuney
Round3 Jacoby Brissett
Round3 Vincent Valentine
Round4 Malcolm Mitchell
Round6 Kamu Grugier-Hill
Round6 Elandon Roberts
Round6 Ted Karras
Round7 Devin Lucien
" One starter, one injured WR 3, one QB turned into WR 4, Below AVG"
2017
Round3 Derek Rivers
Round3 Antonio Garcia
Round4 Deatrich Wise Jr.
Round6 Conor McDermott
"One never saw the field, One ok sub"
2018
Round1 Isaiah Wynn( 2017 1st round and one year rental from Cooks)
Round1 Sony Michel
Round2 Duke Dawson
Round5 Ja'Whaun Bentley
Round6 Christian Sam
Round6 Braxton Berrios
Round7 Danny Etling
Round7 Keion Crossen
Round7 Ryan Izzo TE
"5 games in, might as well be avg"


The NFL: Draft Finder Query Results | Pro-Football-Reference.com

The Patriots: Draft Finder Query Results | Pro-Football-Reference.com

BTW, we have one 1st\two 2rd\three 3rd round in 2019.

No.

 

[edkk323]

My God can we end this freaking nonsense? Eighteen years ago the Pats made a draft pick at #199 who's been leading this team to Superbowls ever since. That one pick makes them the GDTOAT (greatest drafting team of all time).

Rnd                  Pick CarAV
6     199       Tom Brady   171
4     127    Greg Randall    19
2      46    Adrian Klemm    10
7     239    Patrick Pass    10
3      76    J.R. Redmond     9
6     187   Antwan Harris     5
6     201    David Nugent     2
5     141 Dave Stachelski     0
5     161         Jeff Marriott
7     226         Casey Tisdale

It is up there.

 

[maineman209]

AV is flawed. In a couple of years, Chiefs and Rams are going to outpace everyone because they drafted good QB-WR-RB combos in term of AV.

How do you calculate ROI on UDFAS?

Yeah, "AV" (a Chase Stuart metric, IIRC) is almost as flawed as rating a CB primarily on how many picks he's made. As I said, I'm sure that professional Analytics folks have come up with far better metrics. Unfortunately for us fans, AV has pretty much become the standard.

With UDFAs, it's obviously not rational to try to calculate ROI individually using draft position as "investment cost" . Same goes for veteran free agent acquisitions. However, it is rational, and necessary, to include them as part of their positional groups, and in the context of the whole roster, in order to derive a rational approximation of the relative success (ROI) of the entire roster-building process. In order to accomplish that, it's necessary to include the Malcolm Butlers, as well as the Tavon Wilsons, the Ninks as well as the Ealys.

For me, deriding the Pats' personnel guys (BTW, it's always more than just BB) for their lack of success in drafting DBs in the 2nd-round is far too narrow a focus to be rational (and it speaks to a lack of understanding of how the draft actually works). It's very easy for people to artificially isolate a small slice of a larger context and highlight a "true fact". It's simply not very informative or useful to gaining understanding. This isn't a condemnation - it really is difficult take a step or two back so that your sure that you're seeing the entire forest.

Not to get political, but this tendency to isolate "facts" out of context (in order to make some value argument) runs rampant in our political discourse.

 

[maineman209]

Are talking about the Tavon Wilson who is now playing his 7th year? Chung must be in his 10th. Perhaps, we just don't develop 2nd rounders well enough, especially second round defensive backs.

Also, Gronk was a pretty good 2nd round pick.

How a college prospect with no NFL experience will develop is always a projection, regardless how they're acquired - 2nd round, 5th round, UDFA ... it doesn't matter.

If, over the course of a couple-three years, the Pats acquire a couple DB prospects in the second round and a couple UDFA DBs, and the UDFAs develop according to the Pats' own projections but the 2nd-rounders don't, why should we care as long as the team ends up with enough good DBs on the roster?

 

[supafly]

Oh my gosh. Look at all the hot garbage you proudly present here. A six year old can make a better argument.

"
2012: I did not keep the doll I wanted.
2013: I broke my doll.
2014: I got this hot doll but I also lost my second favorite doll "

You love crying about all the ****ty dolls you got. What you really want to cry about was that you got ****TIER toys than OTHERS. But you just do not have the brain cell to go that far. So you just keep crying about the ****ty dolls you got.

Cry a little be more.

Not quite sure what you’re talking about here, but this is one of the strangest posts that I’ve seen in quite sometime.

 

[maineman209]

Not quite sure what you’re talking about here, but this is one of the strangest posts that I’ve seen in quite sometime.

Rehashing the old "Barbie v. Chatty Cathy" debate, I presume.

 

[edkk323]

Not quite sure what you’re talking about here, but this is one of the strangest posts that I’ve seen in quite sometime.

I was referring to some dude who likes to state the most obvious things and tries to pass them as some original thoughts. "The D sucks cuz we lost X players and did not draft Y players" is the same as crying about a broken doll.

 

[DarrylS]

Good effort at attempting to quantify the success or failure of New England Drafts..

Need to account for a team like the Rams who picked #14, #8 & 30, #2, #10 and #1 in the drafts from 2012 to 2016(no first rounder in 2017).. while the Pats in the same period picked #21 & #25(2012), #29(2014), #32(2015)... no first round draft picks in 2013, 2016 & 2017.

Always thought there should be some sort of longitudinal study of all teams to assess their abilities in the draft accounting for many variables including the success of UDFA's before a conclusion can be reached.. From my big comfy couch I think our success is better than expected, despite what we are often told...

 

[supafly]

I was referring to some dude who likes to state the most obvious things and tries to pass them as some original thoughts. "The D sucks cuz we lost X players and did not draft Y players" is the same as crying about a broken doll.

I gotcha. Just casually reminding you that the “some dude” that you’re talking about consistently provides excellent commentary and happens to be the longest standing member on the entire forum. You may not agree with him here in this particular debate, but I’d hate for you to draw a negative conclusion based on that interaction, alone. Just throwing my two cents in. I don’t mean any disrespect.

 

[edkk323]

I gotcha. Just casually reminding you that the “some dude” that you’re talking about consistently provides excellent commentary and happens to be the longest standing member on the entire forum. You may not agree with him here in this particular debate, but I’d hate for you to draw a negative conclusion based on that interaction, alone. Just throwing my two cents in. I don’t mean any disrespect.

Thx man. I am aware of his status here. But this was not first\second\or third time he dropped some condescending comments on me.

 

[borg]

How a college prospect with no NFL experience will develop is always a projection, regardless how they're acquired - 2nd round, 5th round, UDFA ... it doesn't matter.

If, over the course of a couple-three years, the Pats acquire a couple DB prospects in the second round and a couple UDFA DBs, and the UDFAs develop according to the Pats' own projections but the 2nd-rounders don't, why should we care as long as the team ends up with enough good DBs on the roster?

Failing on high round picks does matter:
1) dead wood on roster typically for multiple years
2) wasted cap space (2nd rd = 4 yr contract)
3) wasted opportunity to draft real NFL talent at that slot
4) organizational failure...scouting/development

Yeah....what do the Patriots care

 

[TBR]

From 2012 onward, drafting in the top 2 rounds has been very poor.

2012 had 2 great 1st round picks, although as it relates to the 2017 and 2018 Patriots, Chandler Jones and Hightower are nowhere to be found.

 

[primetime]

The Patriots have failed to draft a star caliber player since 2012, in which they arguably drafted two but gave away the star they drafted in that round. Those impact players matter a lot, even if they've been moderately successful in finding starters (this is a questionable metric, though, as a team must start 22 players; it doesn't really tell you much about the quality of the player). It helps that the team has not had to fill the quarterback position, which is the number 1 reason teams drafts end up looking bad. I still have hope for Wynn and Michel. I do think finding that caliber of player is largely luck, though.

Let's be honest, though. Put an average QB like Blake Bortles on this team and it may not even be a .500 team, unlike a decade ago. That's a factor of drafting and personnel management.

 

[edkk323]

Good effort at attempting to quantify the success or failure of New England Drafts..

Need to account for a team like the Rams who picked #14, #8 & 30, #2, #10 and #1 in the drafts from 2012 to 2016(no first rounder in 2017).. while the Pats in the same period picked #21 & #25(2012), #29(2014), #32(2015)... no first round draft picks in 2013, 2016 & 2017.

Always thought there should be some sort of longitudinal study of all teams to assess their abilities in the draft accounting for many variables including the success of UDFA's before a conclusion can be reached.. From my big comfy couch I think our success is better than expected, despite what we are often told...

It is hard to convince them the Patriots' ability to draft players is above. Whatever you say, they will always rebuff by mentioning those 2nd round DB bust.

 

[edkk323]

The Patriots have failed to draft a star caliber player since 2012, in which they arguably drafted two but gave away the star they drafted in that round.

What is your standard for star? You discounted players like James White\Jimmy Garoppolo\DE Trey Flowers\Shaq Mason\Joe Thuney\Malcolm Mitchell.

Also if we had Blake Bortles for a couple years, we should also have higher draft positions and hence better rosters. If the starting QB is taken away, it will be hard for any team to go above .500 any way.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Of course the drafting looks better when including 2012 and 2013, which produced Jones, Hightower, Ebner, Collins, Ryan, and Harmon. Virtually every poster on this board is aware that the period from 2014/2015-present is the one in question. 2016 and 2017 are probably the worst back-to-back drafts the team has had under Belichick, though injuries played a big part.

I think in particular it’s the lack of young talent at wide receiver and the front 7 that is most concerning.

 

[maineman209]

though injuries played a big part.

Perhaps a bit of an understatement.

2016: Three of nine picks (33%) went to IR for their 2nd season (2017)
2017: Two of four picks (50%) went to IR
2018: Six of nine draft picks (67%) on IR

That's 11 of 22 ... 50%. Only two of them had a known injury history: Mitchell and Michel.

And the one guy from this draft who had a known injury history, Michel, is still playing.

 

[primetime]

What is your standard for star? You discounted players like James White\Jimmy Garoppolo\DE Trey Flowers\Shaq Mason\Joe Thuney\Malcolm Mitchell.

Also if we had Blake Bortles for a couple years, we should also have higher draft positions and hence better rosters. If the starting QB is taken away, it will be hard for any team to go above .500 any way.

None of those players are stars. None of them are even close. None of them have even made a Pro Bowl. James White is the best of all of them and he's a role player, albeit a very good one.

I'm talking blue chippers. The Patriots drafted several between 2000 and 2005 (Brady, Seymour, Warren, Samuel, Wilfork, Mankins) and again between 2008 and 2012 (Mayo, McCourty, Edelman, Gronk, Hernandez, Cannon, Jones, Hightower) and have failed to draft another since.

It doesn't help that they've only had four first rounders since then, and half of them (Wynn and Michel) are still too early to call, but part of that is Deflategate. And they still haven't had the Edelmans, Gronks, Samuels who are hits outside the 1st round with the possible exception of Flowers and White. But the former isn't on the level of any of those players above and White, while fantastic, is a role player.