Do the Patriots Suck at Drafting? (Data From 2012-2017)

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Great job with the research op. Id say the only disappointing draft so far is 2016, and we had our first rounder stripped that year.

2018 is obviously too early to call and id say 2017 is incomplete. Wise is still improving and although it doesn’t look good thus far we still dont know for sure on rivers. Plus all the trades that year that only left us with 4 mid round and below picks

 

[Danger Zone]

I feel like we don't do very well in the 2nd round pretty consistently. That round scares me a little. Based on the snapshot you've listed, that holds true. In my mind, you have to nail your 2nd round picks. Those should be easier to hit on I'd say.

League Averages when drafting at the end of the Second round have a 65% bust rate.

 

[TommyD4207]

None of those players are stars. None of them are even close. None of them have even made a Pro Bowl. James White is the best of all of them and he's a role player, albeit a very good one.

I'm talking blue chippers. The Patriots drafted several between 2000 and 2005 (Brady, Seymour, Warren, Samuel, Wilfork, Mankins) and again between 2008 and 2012 (Mayo, McCourty, Edelman, Gronk, Hernandez, Cannon, Jones, Hightower) and have failed to draft another since.

It doesn't help that they've only had four first rounders since then, and half of them (Wynn and Michel) are still too early to call, but part of that is Deflategate. And they still haven't had the Edelmans, Gronks, Samuels who are hits outside the 1st round with the possible exception of Flowers and White. But the former isn't on the level of any of those players above and White, while fantastic, is a role player.

James White's absolutely a star, and he'll finally get recognition as such by the end of the year.

 

[Danger Zone]

I'm talking blue chippers. The Patriots drafted several between 2000 and 2005 (Brady, Seymour, Warren, Samuel, Wilfork, Mankins) and again between 2008 and 2012 (Mayo, McCourty, Edelman, Gronk, Hernandez, Cannon, Jones, Hightower) and have failed to draft another since.

Brady is the statistical outlier, the mega millions lottery pick.

Richard Seymour was drafted with the 6th pick of the 2001 draft when the Patriots had gone 5-11 in the 2000 season.

Ty Warren was drafted at the 13th spot of the 2003 draft (after a trade up) when the Patriots had gone 9-7 in 2002.

Vince Wilfork was drafted at the 21st spot of the 2004 draft from a pick I believe was from the 2003 season.

For reference: from 2012 to 2017, the Patriots drafted at an average position of 30th in each round (based on end-of-the-year record, not including the 2016 first round forfeiture or for trades).

Not that NFL GMs are infallible, far from it, but there is a reason that certain players fall to where the Patriots actually have a shot at drafting them.

As we all know, there is a definite risk to drafting a player with a Round One talent but with Round Four knees.

 

[Maho Hiyajo]

I suspect Rivers' role as a speed rusher on third downs is limiting his snaps in actual games. There's no reason to give him snaps over Clayborn at this juncture.

If you recall, he had some of the best numbers for a LB at the '17 combine. Great for speed rushers. If he shows improvement in practice as far as setting the edge goes, he will get more playing time.

 

[edkk323]

James White's absolutely a star, and he'll finally get recognition as such by the end of the year.

White should be the second SB MVP in 2016.

 

[edkk323]

Brady is the statistical outlier, the mega millions lottery pick.

Richard Seymour was drafted with the 6th pick of the 2001 draft when the Patriots had gone 5-11 in the 2000 season.

Ty Warren was drafted at the 13th spot of the 2003 draft (after a trade up) when the Patriots had gone 9-7 in 2002.

Vince Wilfork was drafted at the 21st spot of the 2004 draft from a pick I believe was from the 2003 season.

For reference: from 2012 to 2017, the Patriots drafted at an average position of 30th in each round (based on end-of-the-year record, not including the 2016 first round forfeiture or for trades).

Not that NFL GMs are infallible, far from it, but there is a reason that certain players fall to where the Patriots actually have a shot at drafting them.

As we all know, there is a definite risk to drafting a player with a Round One talent but with Round Four knees.

It is hard to argue when the standard of good draft keeps changing. Once it was "being above average". Now is "if drafted HOFers."

 

[Danger Zone]

It is hard to argue when the standard of good draft keeps changing. Once it was "being above average". Now is "if drafted HOFers."

Trying to define the intangibles. One reason why its hard comparing studies. People who did the research have/use different criteria for a definition of a "success".

 

[supafly]

I suspect Rivers' role as a speed rusher on third downs is limiting his snaps in actual games. There's no reason to give him snaps over Clayborn at this juncture.

If you recall, he had some of the best numbers for a LB at the '17 combine. Great for speed rushers. If he shows improvement in practice as far as setting the edge goes, he will get more playing time.

I suppose there’s also a chance that he could be the new Cunningham, McKenzie, or Crable, just the same. They were all promising LBs who were drafted in the second/third rounds. Obviously, we hope not. I think what you say makes a lot of sense. Gotta be able to set the edge and stop the run.

 

[supafly]

Trying to define the intangibles. One reason why its hard comparing studies. People who did the research have/use different criteria for a definition of a "success".

I know that you’ve been one of the “go to” guys for a long time as it pertains to this subject, and I know that you’ve done your research. What is the criteria that you are using when you say 65% bust average at the end of the second round? Is that just a general league average for guys who don’t even really play or is there another measure that you’re using like starter, three year career, etc?

 

[Maho Hiyajo]

I suppose there’s also a chance that he could be the new Cunningham, McKenzie, or Crable, just the same. They were all promising LBs who were drafted in the second/third rounds. Obviously, we hope not. I think what you say makes a lot of sense. Gotta be able to set the edge and stop the run.

Closer comparison would be Crable, since they both clock in at about 6'4" 250. Rivers plays much lighter though, like 245-ish. He certainly has the quickness of a WLB and it shows from his 6.94 3cone time. I think he could do with some more rehab because an ACL tear is hard to recover from, especially for someone who relies on speed.

I never understood the Cunningham pick to begin with. Dunlap was still on the board and Bill loves his edge guys to be at 270-280. He was also 6'6" and had a monster wingspan.

Mid-late second round is where you gamble. JC was a case where he was too slow to be a LB but not imposing enough to be a DE. Recipe for disaster for trench guys.

 

[edkk323]

I know that you’ve been one of the “go to” guys for a long time as it pertains to this subject, and I know that you’ve done your research. What is the criteria that you are using when you say 65% bust average at the end of the second round? Is that just a general league average for guys who don’t even really play or is there another measure that you’re using like starter, three year career, etc?

According to Most NFL Draft Picks Are Busts

20 years of drafts prior to 2016:
37% Were Considered “Useless”
15.3% Were Considered “Poor”
10.5% Were Considered “Average”
12.3% - Were Considered “Good”
6.9% Were Considered “Great”
1% Were Considered “Legendary”

According to The chance of a bust in the NFL draft
Using data from the last 50 years prior to 2012:
End of 2nd round bust rate 50%
End of 3rd round bust rate 70%

The standard for “busts”: A “bust” is that the player starts for less than one year or plays less than 40 games in their career.

 

[edkk323]

This Fox article somehow agrees with my rudimentary finding. The Patriots were ranked 17th.
The article did not show their ranking method.

https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/gallery/nfl-draft-teams-picks-draft-records-ranked-2012-present-030117

 

[Danger Zone]

I know that you’ve been one of the “go to” guys for a long time as it pertains to this subject, and I know that you’ve done your research. What is the criteria that you are using when you say 65% bust average at the end of the second round? Is that just a general league average for guys who don’t even really play or is there another measure that you’re using like starter, three year career, etc?

Unfortunately, I did that research a couple of years ago and while I'm at work, which is where I've been posting from recently (I'm a bad employee, but hey, it's the night-shift), I don't have access to my bookmarked studies/articles.

But still, this is funny.

65% was my amateur, not a figures-guy amalgamation of multiple studies that use different criteria for what constitutes a "bust" along with the inverse chances of what constitutes a "success".

But I realized after thinking about it, that for the last week or so, I've been using the wrong figures -using the numbers I had come up with the third round for the second.

So in essence, I was grossly exaggerating.

Fortunately, the actual ranges I use are pretty conservative numbers.

Thats said, a quick Google and the first article I came up with was:

What stats tells us about the draft by round

Chances of success
2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

Note the obvious -that the numbers provided are for success for the whole round -making no differentiation for success % at the beginning of a round or for the end of a round. So for our purposes this means that, at best they are calculating as an average for the round.

Still, if you add up all the positions together and then divide by the number of positions listed you come up with 64.57.

Or 65%. So there.

Is it scientific? Hardly.

But the rough numbers between studies, had I remembered them right, should be:

Rough League Average Chances of Bust.
First Round
30-40%
Second
35-55%
Third
55-75%

 

[DarrylS]

It is hard to argue when the standard of good draft keeps changing. Once it was "being above average". Now is "if drafted HOFers."

This is the issue with these arguments, when presented facts, the goal posts move.. the Pats do not have a lot of "HOF'ers" but have many valuable players who play extremely well in the Patriots system.. they may not have gaudy stats, but in this system they do above and beyond what they are supposed to do.. and in many cases former Patriots who leave here often have difficulty as BB & Crew know how to play to their strengths and try to hide their weaknesses...

INOW many Pats players who leave here are overvalued, they are more valuable in this system than in others..

Teams like Cleveland are loaded with high 1st round picks and they either as a team flounder or jettison their high draft picks...

 

[TommyD4207]

White should be the second SB MVP in 2016.

It's tough to argue against that. As well as Brady played in the 2nd half, James White was the best player on the field all night.

 

[maineman209]

None of those players are stars. None of them are even close. None of them have even made a Pro Bowl. James White is the best of all of them and he's a role player, albeit a very good one.

I'm talking blue chippers. The Patriots drafted several between 2000 and 2005 (Brady, Seymour, Warren, Samuel, Wilfork, Mankins) and again between 2008 and 2012 (Mayo, McCourty, Edelman, Gronk, Hernandez, Cannon, Jones, Hightower) and have failed to draft another since.

It doesn't help that they've only had four first rounders since then, and half of them (Wynn and Michel) are still too early to call, but part of that is Deflategate. And they still haven't had the Edelmans, Gronks, Samuels who are hits outside the 1st round with the possible exception of Flowers and White. But the former isn't on the level of any of those players above and White, while fantastic, is a role player.

What exactly distinguishes a "star"/"blue-chipper" from a mere "role-player"?

Also, would Malcolm Butler qualify as a "star"? David Andrews?

Garoppolo appears to be getting paid like a "star". Does he qualify or not?

 

[maineman209]

Closer comparison would be Crable, since they both clock in at about 6'4" 250. Rivers plays much lighter though, like 245-ish. He certainly has the quickness of a WLB and it shows from his 6.94 3cone time. I think he could do with some more rehab because an ACL tear is hard to recover from, especially for someone who relies on speed.

I never understood the Cunningham pick to begin with. Dunlap was still on the board and Bill loves his edge guys to be at 270-280. He was also 6'6" and had a monster wingspan.

Mid-late second round is where you gamble. JC was a case where he was too slow to be a LB but not imposing enough to be a DE. Recipe for disaster for trench guys.

Cunningham was drafted at the beginning of the off-season in which BB began transitioning from what had been primarily a 3-4 to the original iteration of the hybrid front-7(6) scheme that we see today. My guess is that, at the time, he was beginning to look for guys who could develop into a sort of hybrid 3-4 OLB/4-3 DE, rather than heavier 4-3-type DEs.

Cunningham (roughly 6'2"/250) seemed to fit those criteria, and he wasn't bad in his rookie season at ROLB (15 games, 34 tackles, 1 SK, 4 QBH, 5 TFL, 1 PD, 2 FF), although he had difficulty setting the edge. He was also working opposite Ninkovich, who the Pats had picked up at the start of the 2009 season, and who quickly became the starting LOLB in 2010 (Cunningham's rookie season). When Nink retired at the start of 2017, BB remarked about how instrumental Nink had been in making the transition of the front-7 scheme successful.

Anyway, from what I've read, Cunningham flopped after that because he didn't stay in shape or "do his homework" during the summer after his rookie season.

Nevertheless, BB appears to have persisted in attempting to find guys - thru the draft and other avenues - who might be able to fit that hybrid OLB/DE prototype (the "Nink role"), even though the scheme appears to have morphed into working out of more 4-3(ish) or 4-2 alignments with the secondary now being mostly nickel, with frequent use of dime packages. And Rivers seems to me like one of those guys.

 

[primetime]

What exactly distinguishes a "star"/"blue-chipper" from a mere "role-player"?

Also, would Malcolm Butler qualify as a "star"? David Andrews?

Garoppolo appears to be getting paid like a "star". Does he qualify or not?

All of those players I listed were at one time top-5 at least, most in the top-3, in their respective positions. Andrews is nothing special, Butler had maybe one year where he looked like a good CB, and Garoppolo has had like four good games in a 5 year NFL career. I mean, this sort of proves the point - to try to claim our drafting hasn't gone downhill, you need to grade on a curve.

 

[primetime]

It is hard to argue when the standard of good draft keeps changing. Once it was "being above average". Now is "if drafted HOFers."

Every team finds starters in the draft. It's a question of how many impact players you find. I don't know why that's hard to understand. The Patriots teams of yesteryear had star-level players up and down the roster, obtained through both the draft and free agency. Today's team has aging studs drafted by the team in those earlier years, but the new talent brought in doesn't match the old.