I know that you’ve been one of the “go to” guys for a long time as it pertains to this subject, and I know that you’ve done your research. What is the criteria that you are using when you say 65% bust average at the end of the second round? Is that just a general league average for guys who don’t even really play or is there another measure that you’re using like starter, three year career, etc?
Unfortunately, I did that research a couple of years ago and while I'm at work, which is where I've been posting from recently (I'm a bad employee, but hey, it's the night-shift), I don't have access to my bookmarked studies/articles.
But still, this is funny.
65% was my amateur, not a figures-guy amalgamation of multiple studies that use different criteria for what constitutes a "bust" along with the inverse chances of what constitutes a "success".
But I realized after thinking about it, that for the last week or so, I've been using the wrong figures -using the numbers I had come up with the third round for the second.
So in essence, I was grossly exaggerating.
Fortunately, the actual ranges I use are pretty conservative numbers.
Thats said, a quick Google and the first article I came up with was:
What stats tells us about the draft by round
Chances of success
2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)
Note the obvious -that the numbers provided are for success for the
whole round -making no differentiation for success % at the beginning of a round or for the end of a round. So for our purposes this means that, at best they are calculating as an average for the round.
Still, if you add up all the positions together and then divide by the number of positions listed you come up with 64.57.
Or 65%. So there.
Is it scientific? Hardly.
But the rough numbers between studies, had I remembered them right, should be:
Rough League Average Chances of Bust.
First Round
30-40%
Second
35-55%
Third
55-75%