Do the Patriots Suck at Drafting? (Data From 2012-2017)

[TheRainMaker]

It’s pretty unreal they were able to snag a pass rusher in Chandler Jones that late in the 1st round in 2012. Best value pick in the 1st round since Vince Wilfork.

 

[Deus Irae]

Not this crap again...

 

[edkk323]

AV as a measure of a player's value is seriously flawed in many ways. I actually don't like it at all. However, for the purpose of deriving comparative approximations, it's at least consistent across teams and seasons.

And approximations are all we're after here, not "exact science". Paid analytics people who we've never heard of are likely to have already done a much more thorough job on this, and made something much closer to an "exact science."

In any case, the ROI approximations derived from DVC "investment cost" and AV "return value" can be used in a lot of different comparisons. For example:
- draft classes by position, year-to-year and round-by-round
- team acquisitions by position, including UDFAs (without which there is no complete ROI picture)

Again, approximations, but still capable of demonstrating that common wisdom is often not necessarily wisdom at all.

AV is flawed. In a couple of years, Chiefs and Rams are going to outpace everyone because they drafted good QB-WR-RB combos in term of AV.

How do you calculate ROI on UDFAS?

 

[edkk323]

Not this crap again...

You are one of the guys who like make huge statement and say little reasoning. hmmm.

 

[Deus Irae]

You are one of the guys who like make huge statement and say little reasoning. hmmm.

No.

I'm one of the guys who've seen this argument here about a million times, almost always with the person(s) taking your position vastly overrating some idiotic metric (as you did in this case), and with the person(s) taking the opposite position vastly overrating some other idiotic metric.

Earlier this year, on this topic in another of the myriad "But they really are the bestest/worstest at drafting!" threads, I did a breakdown of the picks, looking at busts, successes and those who fall somewhere in the middle. I noted the absence of picks due to both trades and NFL discipline in the process. And I'm not the only one who's done it. You're not reinventing the wheel with your O.P.. You're just spouting off based upon yet another meaningless metric.

 

[RobertWeathers]

A friend of mine says BB sucks at drafting.

Another friend of mine says BB is great at drafting.

 

[edkk323]

No.

I'm one of the guys who've seen this argument here about a million times, almost always with the person(s) taking your position vastly overrating some idiotic metric (as you did in this case), and with the person(s) taking the opposite position vastly overrating some other idiotic metric.

Of course. Taking no side and using no metric, you are always right. Hence "You are one of the guys who like make huge statement and say little reasoning".

Tell me more about your feelings, man.

 

[Deus Irae]

Of course. Taking no side and using no metric, you are always right. Hence "You are one of the guys who like make huge statement and say little reasoning".

Tell me more about your feelings, man.

Ok, this post of yours explains a lot. You've got me down on the "doesn't take a side" list. Yeah, I'm famous for my shrinking violet approach and non-determinate analysis, and that's why I'm calling out the silliness of this thread.

You have no idea what you're talking about. You could have saved us both the trouble by just admitting that at the start.

 

[edkk323]

Ok, this post of yours explains a lot. You've got me down on the "doesn't take a side" list. Yeah, I'm famous for my shrinking violet approach and non-determinate analysis, and that's why I'm calling out the silliness of this thread.

You have no idea what you're talking about. You could have saved us both the trouble by just admitting that at the start.

"NO" " No this Crap" "Silliness"

I actually remembered you made a lot of similar statements. You do not know how to argue. You just like to throw Temper tantrums.

My argument: Deus Irae does not know how argue.
My reasoning: He uses definite words like "NO" " No this Crap" "Silliness" and tells no reasoning whatsoever.

Who you think you are? I had heard enough of your feelings. I do not care about your feelings. U do not like this thread? Keep it to yourself and stay out of it.

Or keep throwing tantrums.

 

[Tony2046]

A friend of mine says BB sucks at drafting.

Another friend of mine says BB is great at drafting.

"ESPN is making me hate the combine."

 

[long distance]

The topic of the Patriots being terrible at drafting comes up in almost every post. Whenever I stated my argument and reasoning, someone always typed “we were either average or below average” without giving any circumstantial evidence.

I spent one hour gathering all the data of the 1st to 200th draftees from 2012 to 2017. I used pro-football-reference.com’s weighted career approximate value (CarAV). CarAV is computed by adding the 100% AV of one player’s best yr, 95% of his second best, 90% of his third best and so on.

Explanations:
1. CarAV favors the veterans. They have more time to produce AV.
2. I need to use some kind of benchmark instead of being a troll without any proof. CarAV is as good as any. CarAV might be biased but will be biased for every players and every team.
4. Why 2012 to 2017? Why not 2013-2016? Why not 2012, 2014 and 2016? You can always nitpick some year to make a team look bad.
5. Even though we can draft good players, we might not be able to keep them. This post is about drafting.
6. Injury spares no one.
7. But we truly suck at it by drafting IR-Dowling, Tavon Wilson, Jordan Richards and Cyrus Johns. LOL.


The total players: 1200

The total CarAV of the other 31 teams:11253

The average of the 31 teams: 363

The total CarAV of the NEP: 367


Things went against us:

We picked at bottom very year.

We had one 1st round stolen in 2016.

We never needed to pick a starting QB who could produce a large CarAV if hit.

Jimmy G got hurt too often.


Compare to some good teams

Rams 478
Seahawks 449
Texans 438
Packers 438
Jags 426
Vikings 424
Chiefs 391
One Time Happy SB Champs 374
Patriots 367
Ravens 363
Colts 336
Steelers 331
Falcons 323
Saints 321
Chargers 316
Broncos 279


Conclusion: We are actually pretty good at drafting given all the circumstances. If you disagree, please provide some HARD evidence.



The List
2012
Round1 Dont'a Hightower
Round 1 Chandler Jones
Round 2 Tavon Wilson
2013
Round2 Jamie Collins
Round2 Aaron Dobson
Round3 Logan Ryan
Round3 Duron Harmon
Round4 Josh Boyce
Round7 Michael Buchanan
Round7 Steve Beauharnais
"Above AVG"
2014
Round1 29 Dominique Easley
Round2 62 Jimmy Garoppolo
Round4 105 Bryan Stork
Round4 130 James White
Round4 140 Cameron Fleming
"Above AVG"
2015
Round 1: DT Malcom Brown, Texas
Round 2: SS Jordan Richards, Stanford
Round 3: DE Geneo Grissom, Oklahoma
Round 4: DE Trey Flowers, Arkansas
Round 4: OG Tre' Jackson, Florida State
Round 4: OG Shaq Mason, Georgia Tech
Round 5: LS Joe Cardona, Navy
"Four starters but one 2rd bust, AVG"
2016
Round2 Cyrus Jones
Round3 Joe Thuney
Round3 Jacoby Brissett
Round3 Vincent Valentine
Round4 Malcolm Mitchell
Round6 Kamu Grugier-Hill
Round6 Elandon Roberts
Round6 Ted Karras
Round7 Devin Lucien
" One starter, one injured WR 3, one QB turned into WR 4, Below AVG"
2017
Round3 Derek Rivers
Round3 Antonio Garcia
Round4 Deatrich Wise Jr.
Round6 Conor McDermott
"One never saw the field, One ok sub"
2018
Round1 Isaiah Wynn( 2017 1st round and one year rental from Cooks)
Round1 Sony Michel
Round2 Duke Dawson
Round5 Ja'Whaun Bentley
Round6 Christian Sam
Round6 Braxton Berrios
Round7 Danny Etling
Round7 Keion Crossen
Round7 Ryan Izzo TE
"5 games in, might as well be avg"


The NFL: Draft Finder Query Results | Pro-Football-Reference.com

The Patriots: Draft Finder Query Results | Pro-Football-Reference.com

BTW, we have one 1st\two 2rd\three 3rd round in 2019.

Great job, kudos!

Most real NFL and draft experts incl. those who actually know the job have BB&co among best drafters - if not top (with one notable exception of Captain Stone - who's actually the bizarro Bill ). UDFAs are part of draft process as well..

 

[SammyBlueCat]

I will admit that I have not performed a fraction of the research that the OP has.
I will have read this thread carefully later.
Never the less I cringed last spring every time another team drafted a LB or a DL.

 

[Deus Irae]

"NO" " No this Crap" "Silliness"

I actually remembered you made a lot of similar statements. You do not know how to argue. You just like to throw Temper tantrums.

My argument: Deus Irae does not know how argue.
My reasoning: He uses definite words like "NO" " No this Crap" "Silliness" and tells no reasoning whatsoever.

Who you think you are? I had heard enough of your feelings. I do not care about your feelings. U do not like this thread? Keep it to yourself and stay out of it.

Or keep throwing tantrums.

OK, you just want to clown yourself. Got it.

The reality is a tiny bit nuanced, but is still simple:

1. The Patriots have been in a bad drafting cycle since the second round of 2012. The reasons are varied, and are not all the fault of the Patriots, but the failure to get, and keep, talent in the top rounds since then is a clear issue.
2. The lower rounds have been better, but not overwhelming, and certainly not good enough to make up for the failures in the upper rounds.
3. Churning at the bottom of rosters, particularly when teams aren't deep at particular positions, will often lead to an artificial inflation of a lesser player's value, as he's often used out of desperation.
4. UDFAs making teams may say any number of things, sometimes, but not always, including great work being done by the team with regards to players who fell through the cracks.

Here's just a bit of my draft-related posting this year:

Eagles players sure love talking about the Pats

2018 Training Camp Thread - Day 9 (8/4/18)

Some Thoughts on the JAX Game

Some Thoughts on the JAX Game
Some Thoughts on the JAX Game
https://www.patsfans.com/new-englan...ead-pats-vs-jags.1145391/page-20#post-5376526
https://www.patsfans.com/new-englan...s-on-the-jax-game.1145394/page-4#post-5377270
That's a small sample, and just on draft related postings, but you can see that I have no problem noting my opinion, and have no need for everything to be binary. Now, speaking of binary, you can keep posting crap, or you can stop posting crap. That's up to you. On the other side of the coin, I can keep pointing out that you're posting crap.

 

[IllegalContact]

the pats suck at everything.........but the most importing thing they suck at is sucking

 

[edkk323]

OK, you just want to clown yourself. Got it.

The reality is a tiny bit nuanced, but is still simple:

1. The Patriots have been in a bad drafting cycle since the second round of 2012. The reasons are varied, and are not all the fault of the Patriots, but the failure to get, and keep, talent in the top rounds since then is a clear issue.
2. The lower rounds have been better, but not overwhelming, and certainly not good enough to make up for the failures in the upper rounds.
3. Churning at the bottom of rosters, particularly when teams aren't deep at particular positions, will often lead to an artificial inflation of a lesser player's value, as he's often used out of desperation.
4. UDFAs making teams may say any number of things, sometimes, but not always, including great work being done by the team with regards to players who fell through the cracks.

Here's just a bit of my draft-related posting this year:

Eagles players sure love talking about the Pats

2018 Training Camp Thread - Day 9 (8/4/18)

Some Thoughts on the JAX Game

Some Thoughts on the JAX Game
Some Thoughts on the JAX Game


That's a small sample, and just on draft related postings, but you can see that I have no problem noting my opinion, and have no need for everything to be binary. Now, speaking of binary, you can keep posting crap, or you can stop posting crap. That's up to you. On the other side of the coin, I can keep pointing out that you're posting crap.

If this is the best argument you can do, you should go back to school. You keep making statement and priovide no proof in these four paragraphs.


You basically just said the Patriots suck at drafting again again and again. Did u see the complete list? If you mean the Pats were below avg, by how much ? The third worst team? I just showed it was not the case.

keep at it, man. You do not know how to provide proofs. You have a authoritarian manner but you are a actually nobody. Get off that imaginary high horse.

 

[Deus Irae]

You basically just said the Patriots suck at drafting again again and again.

I didn't say that, at all.

I just showed it was not the case.

And, in the mother of all ironies...

You do not know how to provide proofs. .

 

[Deus Irae]

I'll lay it out again, in two posts copied from other threads, for the willfully silly posters, such as the O.P is being.

Post 1, broken down a bit:

This team's issue with so-called elite defensive talent is as much about not wanting to pay for too many high-end players, especially if they aren't perfect fits, as it is about not drafting elite talent. And, as I've tried to get across to people, once the first round picks above the Patriots have been made, and the Patriots are on the first round clock, draft position becomes meaningless.

If you want to look at why this team's defense has problems recently, that's easy to figure out. Just look at the first two rounds and you can't miss the most important reasons, and where the picks are located is not in the top 4 problems with this defense.

2012 draft - Chandler Jones not retained, Tavon Wilson was a bust
2013 draft - No first round pick, Jamie Collins not retained
2014 draft - Foolishly went with Dominigue Easley when Stephon Tuitt was on the board, drafted a QB in round 2
2015 draft - Malcolm Brown, taken instead of Landon Collins, has been a mediocrity, Jordan Richards has been a bust
2016 draft - No first round pick, Cyrus Jones has been a bust
2017 draft - No first or second round picks

In comparison, here's the list of offensive players drafted in rounds 1 and 2 in that same time period:

JAG
Aaron Dobson

So there is not even one offensive player whom the Patriots drafted in rounds 1-2 from 2012-2017 on the team.

Blaming draft position for the talent problem with this team's defense is absurd. The top 4 issues with the defense, in no particular order are clearly:

Lost draft picks
Blown draft picks
Drafted players allowed to leave, or deliberately traded away
Lousy free agent and trade choices

People may be fine with, for example, Jones not being kept. I was fine with Jones not being kept. But decisions on who to keep on 2nd contracts, or just to keep in general, impact the quality of the team ( specifically the defense for the purpose of this discussion).


*Note, I used one site for the draft info.

DraftHistory.com

Any mistakes are on the site for the error/omission, and on me for not being more diligent in my hunting.

 

[Deus Irae]

Post 2, broken up into bite size pieces:

The Patriots problem hasn't been low round drafting, which is where it's more difficult to find hits. The problem has been high round drafting, where finding hits is easier. The problem, draft-wise, has been missing picks at the top, decisions regarding retention of picks (one can argue the right or wrong of keeping players, but the discussion here is about the picks) along with blown picks when they were available. Here's the top two rounds of picks, post-2011:

2012: Didn't keep Chandler Jones, Hightower's been oft injured, drafted Tavon Wilson
2013: Didn't keep Jamie Collins, drafted Aaron Dobson
2014: Drafted Dominique Easley, drafted a QB and then didn't keep him
2015: Drafted Malcom Brown, drafted Jordan Richards
2016: Drafted Cyrus Jones
2017: Drafted Casper the ghost, maybe, because they didn't draft any live humans
2018: Drafted Isiah Wynn, drafted Sony Michel, drafted Duke Dawson

High/low is irrelevant when the top end of your draft over the past 7 seasons is giving only what it's yielding in 2018. Plenty of obvious choices were passed over in the making of the above picks.*



*I get the injury issues with the 2018 draft, but we can only go by what we have at the moment.

 

[BobDigital]

I am not going to get into the data too much. I will say the Patriots overall have been below average at drafting between 2012. By that I mean, by picking good playing, by picking impact players and by having those players produce here!

The Patriots have had some very good picks in the later round.

Ryan, Harmon, Mason, White. Flowers, Wise. They have also done well with UFAs.

The issue is unless you hit in the first and second round it puts you in a bad spot.

Look at all the key home grown Patriot... Most of them are old guys without anyone to take their spot.

Lets just talk about the First 2 rounds...

2012 - It is hard to have many complaints here. You got 2 very good starters who played with you at a high level. One you traded for good value which I think was the right move. The pick of Wilson was horrible though and a bit loss of 2nd round value. 2012 isn't a draft people criticism much though. It is after this point.

Round 1 Dont'a Hightower
Round 1 Chandler Jones
Round 2 Tavon Wilson

2013 - Collins was an OKAY player. All the talent in the world and occasionally made a really fun play but overall he was so-so. This was a hard year to hit on though IIRC. I know he got paid a ton but IMO he isn't that good. Dobson was a miss. In any case we got decent value for Collins but getting value back isn't as good as hitting on the player.

Round2 Jamie Collins
Round2 Aaron Dobson

2014 - We swing and missed on Easley. That hurt. The hit on Jimmy G was great but in the end we didn't get much of out it. We were able to trade him to get a decent pick but hardly a kings ransom. In the end it could be argued we would have been better off picking someone else who would still be here even after hitting on a potential franchise QB oddly enough.

Round1 29 Dominique Easley
Round2 62 Jimmy Garoppolo

2015 - Brown has been serviceable and nothing more. We will not discuss the Richards pick.

Round 1: DT Malcom Brown, Texas
Round 2: SS Jordan Richards, Stanford

2016 - Miss yet agin.

Round2 Cyrus Jones

So since 2013 the only top 2 round pick who is still on this team is Malcom Brown. They may have been able to trade guys away for more picks, but after all is said and done Malcolm Brown is what they have to show for after 2 first round picks 5 second round picks. Keep in mind they could have stayed in the first round a number of times if they wanted.

That is not good enough from the top 2 rounds. Plain and simple.

This year we have Michel, Winn and Dawson. I hope we start breaking that trend. Injuries can only be an excuse for so long. The top of the draft needs to be better and it was a big reason this D was blown out by a Nick Foles led offense in the super bowl.

 

[1960Pats]

My God can we end this freaking nonsense? Eighteen years ago the Pats made a draft pick at #199 who's been leading this team to Superbowls ever since. That one pick makes them the GDTOAT (greatest drafting team of all time).