Deandre Hopkins Visiting Patriots Next Week

[PatsFan2]

Very interesting and well thought out thread by all parties who posted thus far. NICE to see a good football talk thread.

I have to admit I'm a bit surprised he's making the Pats his 2nd visit. Could be an agent's attempt to try and boost his market appearance. Could be he's serious about coming here. One thing for certain, it make this a VERY interesting day.

In my mind here are the facts we KNOW are certain:

1. Even a deal at around $15MM on a 3 year deal, the Pats can fit that in. When he eventually signs, I'm pretty sure his 2023 cap number will end up being around $5MM moving the bulk of his salary into years where they have more room. So cap space is NOT an impediment to signing him

2. He would make the Pats WR's better. His skill as a receiver has NEVER been an issue. I think the questions are his age, his health, and would he make the offense better LONG term. (BTW- LT is about 3 years in NFL reality) I think I read in this thread that he averages 10 targets a game. On a team that will likely throw the ball 30-35 times a game that doesn't leave much to the rest of the receiver threats. Just adding a a thought,

Those are the things we know for sure. We can afford to sign him and he's be an upgrade to the receiving corps AND he's slow the development of the young receivers we have on the current roster.

My very unofficial thoughts on this is that, like Tennessee, he's going to leave here without a contract. We will offer him a VERY competitive financial deal, BUT it will be lower in guaranteed money and high on playing time, production, and team success incentives. So he will end up moving on to the next team.

I'm NOT worried about the practice thing, if he signs here, because he will know up front what is expected. So signing the deal will be a clear understanding on both sides what they will expect to see. Hopkins will practice hard, and Bill will give him his veteran's rest days on occasion

I also think that signing him makes Parker redundant. I think Giseki and Henry are going to get a lot of looks in this offense, so the number of times we are going to have 3 WR's on the field at the same time will be lessened. This will make a LOT more sense to me if we simply sign Hopkins and release/trade Parker (BTW- anyone know the cap consequences of a Parker release?)

The last thing I think is that a Hopkins, JJ, Thornton, Bourne first 4 is a MARGINALLY better WR group. I DON'T think that adding Hopkins is some seismic leap Just a little bit better at WR, which is good

Not with his catch radius ken: guys who can catch anything remotely close to them is an asset we haven't had a Receiver like that since Gronk and Moss boy do I miss them.

 

[PatsFan2]

Sign me up for some D-Hops!

I say offer him a 2 year 38M deal with a 18M signing bonus. With NLTBE incentives for another 4-5 million....(e.g. lead league in receiving, making the AFC title game, making the SB, and winning the SB).

Year 1: 3M salary + 9M prorated bonus = 12M cap number.
Year 2: 17M salary + 9M prorated bonus = 26M cap number.

We can cut ties in 2024 and easily absorb the 9M prorated signing bonus portion or extend Hopkins again. We will have the 4th/5th most cap space in the league by then.

DeVante Parker has a ~5M cap number....if we sign D-Hop, he might not make it out of camp....that is another 5M of cap space for in-season signings....

D-Hop is a guy that is OPEN when he is NOT OPEN...doesn't matter...the man will make plays.

That ^.

 

[TommyD4207]

Makes no sense signing Hopkins.

The Pats will never get younger at WR if they keep signing old goats. Thornton needs as many targets as he can catch if he is ever going to be something. Boutee as well.

He's literally the same age as Devante Parker.

 

[patfanken]

Perhaps on paper, but on the field? Doesn't that shift the coverage enough that everyone "below" Hopkins gets a more advantageous assignment? And the mixtures that other teams will have to prepare for, with the additions of Gesecki and Hopkins? Isn't that a significant leap forward?

Not arguing, just asking your thoughts.

I REALLY liked the addition of Gesiki. His signing didn't make many waves, but I believe it will eventually rival what we got when the Dolphins gifted Wes Welker to us. The Joker position is sort of coming into focus the last few years. It brings a lot of flexibility to an offense. If you think on it, Aaron Hernandez might have been the original Joker. Quick feet and great routes he was impactful to that offense. Too bad he ended up being a thug and murderer. BUT having a guy with Gesiki's PROVEN skill WILL make Mac's job a lot easier.

That being said, You question about the importance of a "true #1 WR" making everyone's job easier because coverage will switch to him is a little murkier I think. It will help for sure, but by how much? I don't know. It is hard to explain even in one of my longer posts, but I believe that #1 status will have to be proven. If he starts to catch 8-10 balls per game, then defenses are going to HAVE to adjust to that. At age 31 and 3 yrs of pedestrian production, he will have to EARN #1 kind of coverage. But it is what it is, even the greatest of WR's start to slip back into ordinary status at the ends of their careers.. 31 IS 31,

We just have to look back on Chad Johnson. He was CLEARLY a great WR who just couldn't make it work here at the end of his career, Starting in his 2nd year Johnson had 6 straight 1000 yd seasons averaging over 1100yps. After that at age 29 he had seasons of 530, 1037, 832, and the 273 he had with us and was out of the league at age 33. It happens very quickly for WR's in most cases. We were lucky to get 2 great years of production from Randy Moss.

IF he signed a hypothetical 3 year contract my expectations for him would be to get another 1000 yd season (17 games) average around 70 ypg The next season I hope we'd get a Jocobi Meyers type 800 yds and for him bow out with a 500 yd season as a back up/mentor. THAT in my mind would be a great outcome IF he signs here.

Like I said if he signs here we will be a better team short term. But his signing doesn't make us suddenly a superbowl competitor. His signing makes us a bit better and more likely be able to function as a move the chains offense,

 

[patfanken]

Not with his catch radius ken: guys who can catch anything remotely close to them is an asset we haven't had a Receiver like that since Gronk and Moss boy do I miss them.

WoW PF2 you REALLY are a fan. I have to admit I AM warming up to his coming, but my expectations are a bit lower. The day is moving on into dinner time and ZERO news about the meeting (which is typical for the Pats). Do you know who is agent is?

The question is would he be willing to sign here for a contract that would likely guarantee him around $15MM for this year, but is structured such that he will have to EARN his money in production/game played, and team success incentives over the rest of the contract in order to make that kind of money.

I'm also concerned just a bit over the optics that NONE of the supposed contending teams aren't jumping in to grab a guy who could be "the missing piece" to a great roster and why he's coming here and the Titans instead, Just a thought,

 

[PatsFan2]

WoW PF2 you REALLY are a fan. I have to admit I AM warming up to his coming, but my expectations are a bit lower. The day is moving on into dinner time and ZERO news about the meeting (which is typical for the Pats). Do you know who is agent is?

The question is would he be willing to sign here for a contract that would likely guarantee him around $15MM for this year, but is structured such that he will have to EARN his money in production/game played, and team success incentives over the rest of the contract in order to make that kind of money.

I'm also concerned just a bit over the optics that NONE of the supposed contending teams aren't jumping in to grab a guy who could be "the missing piece" to a great roster and why he's coming here and the Titans instead, Just a thought,

I don't know who is agent is but he would be the #1 WR here for sure. The Pats had a pretty good Defense that should be much better this year. D-Hop is a BB type player money shouldn't be an Issue He fills a huge need for us. ken a D-Hop acquisition puts us into contending territory. I think the Chiefs and Bills would have to do mental gymnastics to fit him in keep him away from them.

 

[Real fan 02]

Not sure he would take CB1 though. It depends on the CB. Hopkins is more of a boundary/sideline receiver vs. a speedster that takes the top off the D. But either way...he'll command a lot of attention...but probably a CB2 and a safety/linebacker. Just what we need though...Thorton can take the top off...Gesicki/Schuster/Bourne can kill it from the slots....

Based on his career and his ability what he's done in the league.. he'd likely get sauce if we played jets.. he'd instantly be our best WR if he signed. He still had great hands, he still can jump and out muscle DBs for the ball. Hop still has it. Thornton is our perimeter threat.. his speed will likely allow the DB to have to play 8,9 yards of the line of scrimmage. Whatever the case if we can sign hop this becomes an offense to have to deal with. But then again you could be right on drawing CB 2

 

[patfanken]

Based on his career and his ability what he's done in the league.. he'd likely get sauce if we played jets.. he'd instantly be our best WR if he signed. He still had great hands, he still can jump and out muscle DBs for the ball. Hop still has it. Thornton is our perimeter threat.. his speed will likely allow the DB to have to play 8,9 yards of the line of scrimmage. Whatever the case if we can sign hop this becomes an offense to have to deal with. But then again you could be right on drawing CB 2

Your lips to God's ear.

I think, if healthy, the WR's we have (IF Thornton really is ready to be that outside threat) will be very adequate if we stand pat. Better than most fans think, especially if the OL questions get answered.

BTW- I REALLY have to read those early posts to the end. I was thinking Hopkins was already IN Foxboro now! The "next week" thing is a bit of a puzzle. Usually we never know WHO is in Foxboro until AFTER they've left with a contract or a polite goodbye and a Subway coupon. Can you ever remember the Pats announcing an upcoming FA visit? Normally they are CIA-like secretive about potential visits. What do you read in this. Is it a prelude to a signing or just a favor for an agent?

 

[Zuma]

IMO it would be a colossal mistake to let Hopkins leave without a contract. Not that he is a superstar anymore but he still draws opponents best CB and also opens up the field for other players. Replacing Parker is the right thing to do.

 

[Brotherblues]

Your lips to God's ear.

I think, if healthy, the WR's we have (IF Thornton really is ready to be that outside threat) will be very adequate if we stand pat. Better than most fans think, especially if the OL questions get answered.

BTW- I REALLY have to read those early posts to the end. I was thinking Hopkins was already IN Foxboro now! The "next week" thing is a bit of a puzzle. Usually we never know WHO is in Foxboro until AFTER they've left with a contract or a polite goodbye and a Subway coupon. Can you ever remember the Pats announcing an upcoming FA visit? Normally they are CIA-like secretive about potential visits. What do you read in this. Is it a prelude to a signing or just a favor for an agent?

Don't think the Pats announced anything. It's just D-Hop and his agent drumming up hype.

 

[Rob0729]

 

[Real fan 02]

Your lips to God's ear.

I think, if healthy, the WR's we have (IF Thornton really is ready to be that outside threat) will be very adequate if we stand pat. Better than most fans think, especially if the OL questions get answered.

BTW- I REALLY have to read those early posts to the end. I was thinking Hopkins was already IN Foxboro now! The "next week" thing is a bit of a puzzle. Usually we never know WHO is in Foxboro until AFTER they've left with a contract or a polite goodbye and a Subway coupon. Can you ever remember the Pats announcing an upcoming FA visit? Normally they are CIA-like secretive about potential visits. What do you read in this. Is it a prelude to a signing or just a favor for an agent?

Yes sir, we'll I like our group as is too. The potential of adding a talent like hop wich is a real possibility seeing as he has already made visits and hasn't signed anywhere. I believe BB will convince him and charm him to sign here. It will ultimately be on hop to sign.

I believe that ownership is going this route of announcing things becuase they don't want to loose thier fan base especially after last season seeing those stands empty out at times how badly we looked on offense. But yeah next week he's scheduled to come in. The fact that he's even considered coming here should be exciting enough. He would just be a fabulous talent for Mac if it all came to be. Hopefully he doesn't come and go without a contract and a free meal at Dennys instead! I can't ever remember a time when they did as you mentioned. The reason to think hop will actually sign is he has publicly made it known he loves BB and wants to play for him. He said this last season! But as for our offense we had a great RB group, some good WR'S that all have different skill sets, some good TEs that can route run and catch. I'm really optimistic about this season..

 

[Real fan 02]

Don't think the Pats announced anything. It's just D-Hop and his agent drumming up hype.

Here's what's being reported:

 

[crawhammer]

Not with his catch radius ken: guys who can catch anything remotely close to them is an asset we haven't had a Receiver like that since Gronk and Moss boy do I miss them.

Let's not get too carried away here. Gronk is the GOAT TE (at least until Kelce inevitably overtakes him) and Moss at his peak was arguably the best receiver in the history of the league. It's not quite as bad as comparing Tyquan to Metcalf (which happened) but it's probably raising the bar too high for Hopkins. Remember too, his quarterback is going to be Mac Jones and not Tom Brady like Gronk had his entire career and Moss had for his GOAT season.

I think it's fair to say Hopkins is still a top 15 WR, i.e. he'll give us a WR1 better than what over half the teams in the league have, and he'll slide everyone else into their rightful spot (JuJu WR2, Parker WR3, Bourne WR4), which is huge, especially for JuJu who probably can be contained by most top CBs in the league (so the downgraded matchup will benefit him greatly). So, while Hopkins will be a difference maker for the 2023 offense for sure, he's not morphing us into the 2007 or 2011 Patriots. I'll be content with an above average competitive offense along side what should be a top 10 defense.

 

[Real fan 02]

That ^.

Why it feels like D hop will be here..
In his own words: I'm looking for a stable organization upstairs, the QB doesn't need to be great, I'm looking for a great defense to have. Feels like this is the perfect place for him..

 

[Ring 6]

The way this works is you cut (or trade) Parker and sign Hopkins on his slot. Frees up both 6 mill in cap (and you could easily set this up with a cap hot for the first year in the 6 mill range) and a spot on the depth chart. Takes no snaps away from Thornton or Bourne, just upgrades the Parker spot.

 

[captain stone]

I agree. Glad to see that someone reads posts by Crawhammer.

What about "5 wide"? Would Mac be able to quickly diagnose the mismatches and hit the hot receiver? We will have 5 good, not great, receivers. Will the defense have 5 good DBs to match?

If they ever go 5-wide - i.e.: zero-protection - then Gesicki should be one of them, aligned in the slot; he could do some serious seam damage if Mac has time to see him... and can make a good seam throw, something he let's hope has been working to improve...

 

[captain stone]

Right, like anyone would ever drink at 730 in the morning. Can't drink all day if you don't start in the morning.

Hey when I was in Hawaii for a couple of games in 2021, I was drinking at 7am Sharp...

 

[captain stone]

Perhaps on paper, but on the field? Doesn't that shift the coverage enough that everyone "below" Hopkins gets a more advantageous assignment? And the mixtures that other teams will have to prepare for, with the additions of Gesecki and Hopkins? Isn't that a significant leap forward?

What's even better is, by keeping Parker then Thornton's back to the #5/6 spot where he belongs until he himself proves otherwise.

Hopkins - JuJu - Parker
Bourne - Douglas - Thornton
Boutte

Injuries (unfortunately) & performance will sort-out the details.

 

[captain stone]

havent seen this posted recently, but think its relevant:
From Cardinals game last season:

Bill was also talking it up with Kingsbury pre- or post-game, and ended it with: I'll be in touch...

I thought for sure he was gonna be the OC here... Until he decided to board the Thailand Express...