Well Pete you aren't living up to your screenname of Pessimistic
so let me be the unfortunate voice of, a small hint, of pessimism. At this point nothing is a lock when you're looking at December football and scrub division teams that have coaches and players trying to keep their current jobs. While it's an overused phrase, to the Bills and the Jets this is their 'superbowl'. To beat the Patriots, at this point in their otherwise irrelevant season, can go a LONG way in cooling off the fan base. This isn't to say I would bet the Jets or Bills even with the line, however, you can bet the whole team will give a gritty max+ effort in the first half (if the Patriots go up 21 at half I'd expect some to start mailing it in a bit). Wouldn't surprise me at all to see the Patriots win one or both by a single score.
With that said, I think you're right about 4-0 giving a very good chance at #1 seed, or go 3-1 and #2 is all but certain (3-1 could get the #1, far stranger things have happened). And you're right that the next two games are the heaviest factor to getting that 4-0/3-1. Hopefully the last 2 days are not what is waiting for Sunday's weather (it's been very humid and very warm in here in [cooler than Miami] Tampa). Hopefully the hex of @Miami isn't in force this year. IMHO Sunday at Miami is the most critical game for getting the bye (losing 2 of last 3 is notably unlikely). And as much as the #1 is optimal, there is nothing more important than getting the week off on WC weekend. Since Denver isn't in the mix, the #2 seed without the @Denver hex looks quite nice.