OT: Watson to Brownies

[dtbrks]

Let’s play the who you wouldn’t have signed last year for this year:

Judon: Yes. He’s a bargain even though he can’t stop the run.
Henry: Yes. there’s no one better this year.
Smith: No. Overpaid for not much production in Tenn.
Agholor: No.
Bourne: Yes
Godsmack: Absolutely not.
Mills: Absolutely not.

Mills and an absolutely not? Wow.
Not a CB1 but he played damn well in the second half of the season.
Let’s see how season 2 works before we panic ask always by pats fans

 

[dtbrks]

oops

 

[dtbrks]

That’s a lot to pay for a guy who can’t keep it in his pants.
One of the first things I was taught.

 

[farn]

Let’s play the who you wouldn’t have signed last year for this year:

Judon: Yes. He’s a bargain even though he can’t stop the run.
Henry: Yes. there’s no one better this year.
Smith: No. Overpaid for not much production in Tenn.
Agholor: No.
Bourne: Yes
Godsmack: Absolutely not.
Mills: Absolutely not.

Agreed until Mills. He isn’t Revis, but no one thought he’d be. He is what he is and I’m glad he’s in NE.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Mills and an absolutely not? Wow.
Not a CB1 but he played damn well in the second half of the season.
Let’s see how season 2 works before we panic ask always by pats fans

Agreed until Mills. He isn’t Revis, but no one thought he’d be. He is what he is and I’m glad he’s in NE.

I’ve explained why many times. He allowed the 2nd most TD’s in the NFL. He had career worsts in other areas such as QB rating as well. He wasn’t well liked in Philly by media and fans as he was a big talker with little production. I didn’t like the signing last year because of that.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Let’s play the who you wouldn’t have signed last year for this year:

Judon: Yes. He’s a bargain even though he can’t stop the run.
Henry: Yes. there’s no one better this year.
Smith: No. Overpaid for not much production in Tenn.
Agholor: No.
Bourne: Yes
Godsmack: Absolutely not.
Mills: Absolutely not.

The problem with these breakdowns is they don’t account for the overall cost/value total. On the “successes,” we’re looking at something close to a neutral overall cost/production.

Judon was a success, in the sense that he is probably worth the $15M the Patriots paid him. He’s a very good player at a high cost. He isn’t an elite player at a medium cost. He isn’t a good player at a low cost.

Henry was, maybe, a success. When you consider the contract was close to top dollar for TEs, it’s hard to argue he’s actually one of the best TEs or even close. Does he make the team better? Yes. But for the price paid, he’s not really an asset. As a test, imagine the Patriots put him on the trading block tomorrow. Do you really think other teams would bite at $12.5M per year? I don’t.

Smith is a huge miss. Huge contract, almost zero production. So, you can’t simply say Smith is a minus, Henry is a plus, as a final measure. The net negative on Smith is far greater than even the most optimistic positive return on Henry.

I could go through with the rest of them, but we’re looking at a very poor overall return for the money spent. Why? Because free agency is always subject to the Winner’s Curse. The winning bidder almost always overpays, especially with a larger sample size like the Patriots 2021 free agent class.

You know who believes this? Bill Belichick. Unfortunately, people can’t accept that he dug himself into a deep hole by failing to really rebuild the team and found himself in the worst position of having a giant pile of cash to burn out of desperation. These players were merely the best available at need positions in a relatively weak free agency year. Nothing more. It’s incredible that people are still believing there’s some sort of brilliant master plan or that these contracts were created with the future in mind when the opposite is true. The Patriots have almost no money to spend because they backloaded these deals and were as aggressive as any team in 2021 to win now.

 

[Patriot Missile]

That’s a lot to pay for a guy who can’t keep it in his pants.
One of the first things I was taught.

He’s a piece of garbage. Oh boy, he plays football really good so lets just forget the fact that he has 22 civil lawsuits from 22 different women. Mothers, daughters etc. Yeah, some of them are money grabs for sure but I highly doubt all of them are. I would never cheer or support a dirtbag like that guy. Icing on the cake is he just got paid that ridiculous contract. Everyone thought Ben Rapist berger was bad, this guy makes him look like a choir boy yet somehow this guy is ****ting rainbows and butterflies while some fans are singing the praises of the Cleveland front office for fleecing the Texans.

 

[HetfieldFogerty]

Only 23 people happier than Watson at this moment - the 23 women suing him!

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Afc north Qb’s

Ravens - Jackson who is really good and a fast runner.
Bengals - burrows who is good at throwing to chase.
Browns - Watson who is good at sexually harassing women.
Steelers - trubisky who is …. Yeah I got nothing on him?

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Objectively speaking, this is the worst contract in the history of sports. I’m not saying it’s a bad move by the Browns (it probably is though), but in terms of the contract value being set by precedent, this is beyond ****ing insane.

Watson is a good QB, but to pay him 1.5X the most guaranteed money ever, and all the while he’s coming in with all this baggage? I think at best he’s the 5th best QB, and that’s as optimistic as it gets. Houson’s point totals and efficiency was never very high, even with Hopkins.

 

[Triumph]

He’s a piece of garbage. Oh boy, he plays football really good so lets just forget the fact that he has 22 civil lawsuits from 22 different women. Mothers, daughters etc. Yeah, some of them are money grabs for sure but I highly doubt all of them are. I would never cheer or support a dirtbag like that guy. Icing on the cake is he just got paid that ridiculous contract. Everyone thought Ben Rapist berger was bad, this guy makes him look like a choir boy yet somehow this guy is ****ting rainbows and butterflies while some fans are singing the praises of the Cleveland front office for fleecing the Texans.

That's professional USA sports in a nutshell.

The laws and unwritten codes of conduct do not apply. Owner's and front offices draw the line at murder.

 

[bobbutts]

Maybe I'm way off since I only watch the every Patriots game but I consider Watson middle of the pack talent at best. Add in the off field baggage and the cost of the contract and this is an absolute disaster of a signing for the Browns.

 

[Patriot Missile]

Objectively speaking, this is the worst contract in the history of sports. I’m not saying it’s a bad move by the Browns (it probably is though), but in terms of the contract value being set by precedent, this is beyond ****ing insane.

Watson is a good QB, but to pay him 1.5X the most guaranteed money ever, and all the while he’s coming in with all this baggage? I think at best he’s the 5th best QB, and that’s as optimistic as it gets. Houson’s point totals and efficiency was never very high, even with Hopkins.

So true, amazing that he’s been swimming in a puddle of poop for a year and somehow ends up on the other side of the rainbow bathing in a pot of gold. The last game I remember of him was blowing a 24 point lead in the playoffs.

 

[Grogan14]

Not as stupid as your reply

 

[mgteich]

Objectively speaking, this is the worst contract in the history of sports. I’m not saying it’s a bad move by the Browns (it probably is though), but in terms of the contract value being set by precedent, this is beyond ****ing insane.

Watson is a good QB, but to pay him 1.5X the most guaranteed money ever, and all the while he’s coming in with all this baggage? I think at best he’s the 5th best QB, and that’s as optimistic as it gets. Houson’s point totals and efficiency was never very high, even with Hopkins.

If it weren't for the outside baggage, I would think that this is a great deal, and no-brainer for the Browns.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

Let’s play the who you wouldn’t have signed last year for this year:

Judon: Yes. He’s a bargain even though he can’t stop the run.
Henry: Yes. there’s no one better this year.
Smith: No. Overpaid for not much production in Tenn.
Agholor: No.
Bourne: Yes
Godsmack: Absolutely not.
Mills: Absolutely not.

Mills is good, you're wrong there.

Agholor's contract is now an absolute bargain, he'd be signing for $15m/yr this offseason. He's talented enough, and I think he and Mac will connect a lot more often this year. I think it was a good signing.

Godchaux had some flashes but the DL needs another horse.

Smith had a horrible year and he needs to get back on track.

 

[NFL Mystique]

The Bucs, Rams and Cowboys have the best teams on paper in the NFC. Packers and Cardinals have pretty weak rosters outside of the QB position.

In the AFC, it wouldn't surprise me if any of those teams wound up the 1st seed. Although it'll probably be the Bills since the AFC West could hand each other losses on any given day.

Packers will end up with a better record than Dallas imo. Better QB, coach, and overall management.

If I had to guess...

Rams will get 1 seed.
Packers will get 2 seed.
Bucs 3 seed.
Cowboys 4 seed

Yet....I still think TB is better than GB.

So why do I have GB ahead? Bucs schedule is absolutely brutal. NO (They can't beat them much) x 2, Chiefs, Rams, Niners, Cards, Dallas, Ravens, Bengals, & Browns.

I'll give Buffalo the 1 seed in AFC due to other divisions beating up on one another.

 

[NFL Mystique]

If it weren't for the outside baggage, I would think that this is a great deal, and no-brainer for the Browns.

Yeh I mean look at it from a Browns perspective.

They have been garbage for 30 plus years. They haven't had a franchise QB in that time span. Cleveland isn't a desirable city. I don't blame the Browns for going all in. Regardless, if I had to bet, I'd say Cleveland never wins a SB with Watson.

OT. I believe Watson wanted more guarantees from Atlanta in negotiations. Had Atlanta gave in, he's a Falcon today. But Atlanta couldn't oblige. Thus, Watson went back to the desperate Browns to get more money. If this were strictly about winning a SB, Watson should've picked Saints.

 

[mgteich]

Yeh I mean look at it from a Browns perspective.

They have been garbage for 30 plus years. They haven't had a franchise QB in that time span. Cleveland isn't a desirable city. I don't blame the Browns for going all in. Regardless, if I had to bet, I'd say Cleveland never wins a SB with Watson.

OT. I believe Watson wanted more guarantees from Atlanta in negotiations. Had Atlanta gave in, he's a Falcon today. But Atlanta couldn't oblige. Thus, Watson went back to the desperate Browns to get more money. If this were strictly about winning a SB, Watson should've picked Saints.

I disagree with the NO roster being more likely to go to the SB than CLE. Perhaps it is indeed true. NO has a weaker roster, but also has weaker competition.

Another consideration is the NO cap which mushroomed when Brees was there. It is totally out of control. Teams can extend their window just so far by pushing huge amounts forward.

 

[zydecochris]

Objectively speaking, this is the worst contract in the history of sports. I’m not saying it’s a bad move by the Browns (it probably is though), but in terms of the contract value being set by precedent, this is beyond ****ing insane.

Watson is a good QB, but to pay him 1.5X the most guaranteed money ever, and all the while he’s coming in with all this baggage? I think at best he’s the 5th best QB, and that’s as optimistic as it gets. Houson’s point totals and efficiency was never very high, even with Hopkins.

If it weren't for the outside baggage, I would think that this is a great deal, and no-brainer for the Browns.

The outside baggage is difficult for me to ignore, but even apart that and from the unprecedented amount of guaranteed money in the contract (well over 50% higher than the next highest contract ever) the draft compensation Cleveland gave up blows me away, three First Rounders, a Third Rounder and a Fourth Rounder? Wow.

The only previous trade involving 3 First Rounders that comes to mind right away is the Hershel Walker trade from Dallas to Minnesota (which was a clear win for Dallas).

There are plenty of examples of players traded for 2 First Round picks and the team trading away the picks often ended up as the loser (the Laremy Tunsil trade was a disaster for Houston and the Jamal Adams trade was pretty bad for Seattle also) but there are exceptions (the Rams did well in the Jalen Ramsey trade and the Bears probably won the Khalil Mack trade). Let me ask a serious question: how many times has a comparable draft package (3 First Rounders) been dealt for a player, and how did it work out for both teams in each circumstance?