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AFC Week 18 Playoff Scenarios
Interesting to note how Buffalo winning next week helps the three other division winners, as the Bills lose the conference tiebreakers in the #1-4 seeding - while the Patriots would win those same tiebreakers.
11-5 Tennessee Titans (favored by 10½ at home vs Houston)
- Can be as high as the #1 seed, or as low as #4
- Clinches #1 seed with a win
- Clinches #1 seed with losses by the Chiefs, Bengals and Pats; or losses by the Chiefs and Bengals, plus Buffalo wins.
- Clinches #2 seed with Chiefs loss, plus either Pats lose, Bengals lose, or Buffalo wins.
- Clinches #2 seed with Bengals loss, plus either Pats lose or Buffalo wins.
- Eliminated from #1 seed with a loss, plus either Bengals win, or Chiefs win, or Pats win/Bills lose.
11-5 Kansas City Chiefs (favored by 10 at Denver)
- Can be as high as the #1 seed, or as low as #4
- #1 seed with a win, plus Titans lose.
- At least #2 seed with a win; or with losses by the Bengals, and the Pats, and the Bills
- End up at #4 with a loss, plus Bengals win, plus either Pats or Bills win.
10-6 Cincinnati Bengals (3-point underdogs at Cleveland)
- Can finish anywhere from #1 to #4
- Need four things to happen to be #1: a win, plus losses by both the Titans and Chiefs, plus either Pats lose or Buffalo wins.
- Clinch #2 seed with a win, plus Titans lose, plus either Chiefs lose, Pats lose, or Buffalo wins.
- Clinch #3 seed with a win, plus either Chiefs lose, Titans lose, Pats lose, or Buffalo wins; also if Bills and Pats both lose.
- Become #4 seed with a loss, plus either Pats or Bills win. Also end up at #4 with wins by the Pats, Chiefs and Titans, plus a Buffalo loss.
10-6 Buffalo Bills (17 point home favorites vs the Jets)
- Cannot be the #1 seed; could be anywhere from #2 to #7
- Become the #2 seed with a win, plus losses by both KC and Cincy.
- Clinch the #3 seed with a win, plus a loss by either KC or Cincy.
- Clinch #4 spot with either a win, or a Pats loss.
- Finish #5 at best with a loss, plus a Pats win.
- Finish #7 with a loss, plus Pats win, plus Colts win.
10-6 New England Patriots (5½ point favorites at Miami)
- Can finish anywhere from #1 to #7
- Become the #1 seed with a win, plus losses by the Chiefs, Titans and Bills.
- Clinch #2 seed with a win plus Bills loss, plus either a Chiefs or Titans loss.
- Get the #3 seed with a win, plus a Buffalo loss.
- Can finish no higher than #5 with a loss, plus a Buffalo win.
- Can finish no higher than #6 with a loss, plus either the Colts win or Raiders win.
- End up at #7 with a loss, plus both the Colts and Raiders win.
9-7 Indianapolis Colts (favored by 15 at Jacksonville)
- Can finish #5, #6, #7, or miss the playoffs
- Become #5 with a win, plus the Raiders lose, plus either the Pats or Bills lose.
- Clinch at least #6 seed with a win, plus one of the Bills, Patriots or Raiders lose.
- Clinch a playoff spot with a win. Also clinch with a Chargers loss plus various combinations of Pats, Steelers, Ravens, Bengals losing.
- Eliminated from #5 seed if Raiders win, or both Pats and Bills win.
- Eliminated from #6 seed with a loss, or if Raiders, Pats and Bills all win.
- Eliminated from playoffs with a loss plus Chargers win; or loss and two Steelers wins; or loss plus Pats win, Steelers beat Browns and Ravens beat Steelers; or loss plus Bengals, Pats and Ravens all win.
9-7 Los Angeles Chargers (3-point favorites at Raiders)
- Can be #5, #6, #7 or miss playoffs
- Become #5 seed with a win, plus Pats lose, Bills lose and Colts lose.
- Clinch #6 seed with a win, plus Colts lose; or with a win, plus Pats and Bills both lose.
- Clinch a playoff spot with a win.
- Eliminated form #5 spot if either Dolphins, Colts or Bills win.
- Eliminated from #6 seed if Colts win, plus either Bills win or Pats lose.
- Eliminated from the playoffs with a loss.
9-7 Las Vegas Raiders (3-point home underdogs vs Chargers)
- Can be #5, #6, #7 or miss playoffs
- Become #5 seed with a win, plus either the Pats or Bills lose.
- Clinch at least #6 seed with a win over the Chargers.
- Also clinch a playoff spot with a Colts loss combined with a Steelers loss to either the Browns or Ravens.
- Eliminated from #5 spot if the Pats and Bills both win.
- Eliminated from #6 seed with a loss to the Chargers.
- Eliminated from playoffs with a loss, plus the Colts win; or with a loss and two Steelers wins.
8-8 Ravens (4½ point home favorites vs Pittsburgh)
- Can only make the playoffs as the #7 seed
- Only path to the postseason is to win, plus losses by the Chargers, Colts and Dolphins, plus Cleveland loses one of their final two games.
7-7-1 Steelers (2 point home favorites vs Cleveland; 4½ point underdogs at Baltimore)
- Can only make the playoffs as the #7 seed
- Need to win both remaining games, plus Colts lose to Jaguars, plus Raiders-Chargers not end in a tie.