Sure...
Teams routinely cut draft picks in years one and two. They tend to be lower round draft picks much more than those picked higher, but the same dynamics still apply.
Ah, I see, thank you for the clarification. I'll try to clarify my point as well, because I don't want to come across as saying I believe some picks are better just because we don't know yet. I think it's fair to say that this board would be a LOT more drab and empty if every discussion boiled down to, "Well, we can't see the future, so why debate it?" I don't want that.
What I was trying to combat is the idea that the general philosophy of "give it time" (or as I would classify it, "wait for more information") is a failing of the person arguing it. It can take some naive forms (assuming picks or players from other sources are automatically going to work out is naivety in my mind), but in general I assume that teams are working with a set of information I don't have access to, and so I wait until I can at least see a player in training camp/pre season before declaring it a bad pick. It's kind of a similar mindset that we saw in the Edelman retirement thread, where some posters were talking about how cold and callous a move it was to cut a team legend for a failed physical. Waiting just a few more minutes provided more information and context, where it appears there's a medical benefit he is now eligible for that he wouldn't have been if he'd retired while still under contract. It doesn't invalidate their opinions based on the information they had, but it does show a benefit of waiting for all the facts to come in before being outraged.
It's why I try to frame player additions (from the draft or otherwise) as adding competition to a role or position group, rather than saying something like, "This player is now our top receiver" (example). It frames it, IMO, in a way that leaves some wiggle room for the unknown. Saying a player is a bad pick is a valid opinion, and as you say may turn out to be right more often than not (draft picks definitely skew towards failure on average), but I choose to give it time, and I don't feel that's a bad way to approach it for me personally.
