Your Second Tier QB Thoughts --- {Poll Added}

[Ochmed Jones]

QB’s like Dilfer never win on their own. Ravens defense got Dilfer a ring. Bucs defense got Brad Johnson a ring. Rypien who wasn’t that bad of a QB still benefited from one of the greatest offensive lines in league history. Broncos defense got the shell of Fivehead a ring.

Pats defense was kinda lousy last year, looks ok on paper this year but they are still not close to what those other QBs had. They need something from the QB position a lot better than they had last year.

bingo! That’s why we do not trade up for a qb and instead build a strong defense and strong running game. Then we draft a game manager at qb.

 

[Ring 6]

They always cut the timeline short, since in 2012, three guys selected in the mid-rounds had good pro-careers.

Of those 73, how many ever even saw the field other than in garbage time or a couple of games here and there when the starter was down? The number looks a lot less impressive once you get to those realities, particularly when you consider that a guy like, say, Stidham, who get minimal chances, won't really be looked at by other teams as he ends his rookie deal.

Add in the reality that only a handful of teams each year win a playoff game, and many of the QBs on some of those teams have been the QB for a long time (Brady's been stealing 2-3, even 4 wins a year for 20 years), and the statistic becomes even less impressive.

If Mond or Mills or Trask run as fast or can throw nearly as well as some of the "super 5," and better than others of that group, then the physical tools are obviously there and it comes down to evaluations - which are always tricky, particularly in college, where one guy might be throwing to Waddle and Smith, or Chase, and might have a dominant cast of characters, like OL, around him.

This year looks a lot like 2012 to me. Best QB year in many:
Round 1:
Luck 1
Griffen 2
Tannehill 8
Wheeden 22

Round 2:
Osweiler 57

Round 3:
Wilson 75
Foles 88

Round 4:
Kirk Cousins 102

You see a big difference in the careers between the top 3 and the last 3 on that list? (And it's only close because Tannehill was revived by a team that had a scheme perfect for his skill set.

So why won't Mond, Mills, Trask, maybe Newman work out?

You are creating a “maybe once in a while it works out” argument. That’s fine maybe it does but it is extremely rare. Im not really sure I’m calling foles or cousins careers success. Foles can’t keep a job and cousins has won nothing.

As far as the claim they don’t get a chance I listed dozens earlier who have. The fact they did nothing with it doesnt mean they didn’t get it. Mostly though im surprised that more talented players getting more or better chances is shocking to you.

 

[Ring 6]

bingo! That’s why we do not trade up for a qb and instead build a strong defense and strong running game. Then we draft a game manager at qb.

So 3 times an historic defense carried a crappy qb and that’s your plan?
We just have to get a top 10 all time defense and forget about the QB and maybe we might get lucky and win one SB.
And of course we can just snap out fingers and have an all time top 10 defense right? No that’s a terrible plan.

 

[Ring 6]

More film = better quality of information in which to make a judgement upon, no?

E.g. we have more information that Ehlinger LIKELY ISN'T the best QB in this draft, no? Some of the others (other than Lawrence)....we have no real idea.

IOW, I like Monds a lot better.....feel he is a safe pick with a good baseline.

So wait. The greatest QB in history could come out after 2 years of starting, but instead you would take a mediocre guy who played 4 years?
That makes no sense. You aren’t evaluating statistics. You are evaluating skills, and ability to play the position. You aren’t better because you have more reps on film.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

So 3 times an historic defense carried a crappy qb and that’s your plan?
We just have to get a top 10 all time defense and forget about the QB and maybe we might get lucky and win one SB.
And of course we can just snap out fingers and have an all time top 10 defense right? No that’s a terrible plan.

we do not need an all time defense, just a strong defense.

we have a really good ground game.

 

[Ring 6]

we do not need an all time defense, just a strong defense.

we have a really good ground game.

Your argument was we could copy the 2000 ravens, 02 bucs or 15 Broncos.
now you are saying we just have to have a strong defense. Can you show me how many of those teams, strong not great defense and garbage qb have won SBs?

 

[Penn State Patriot]

Your argument was we could copy the 2000 ravens, 02 bucs or 15 Broncos.
now you are saying we just have to have a strong defense. Can you show me how many of those teams, strong not great defense and garbage qb have won SBs?

I don’t really have an opinion on this, but the ‘06 Bears made the Super Bowl. Definitely an outlier though.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Your argument was we could copy the 2000 ravens, 02 bucs or 15 Broncos.
now you are saying we just have to have a strong defense. Can you show me how many of those teams, strong not great defense and garbage qb have won SBs?

You may confused, yet again.

to clarify: teams can win with a strong defense,running game and a game manager qb that can make a few critical plays a game.

for example (please note i said “example”, not the definitive rule) the Baltimore team with dilfer at qb.

I hope this enlightens you going forward!

 

[Ring 6]

I don’t really have an opinion on this, but the ‘06 Bears made the Super Bowl. Definitely an outlier though.

And lost badly

 

[Ring 6]

You may confused, yet again.

to clarify: teams can win with a strong defense,running game and a game manager qb that can make a few critical plays a game.

for example (please note i said “example”, not the definitive rule) the Baltimore team with dilfer at qb.

I hope this enlightens you going forward!

Yes you said they could but the only examples you gave were historic top 10 all time defenses. Then you said they don’t have to be that good, but none of those kind of teams have won in an era that even resembles this one.

 

[mgteich]

You may confused, yet again.

to clarify: teams can win with a strong defense,running game and a game manager qb that can make a few critical plays a game.

for example (please note i said “example”, not the definitive rule) the Baltimore team with dilfer at qb.

I hope this enlightens you going forward!

Please enlighten us. Who are the SB winning mediocre game managers? Who are conference champion?
Since the focus is on 2nd and 3rd picks, please ignore any first rounders.
========
I understand your point. It just doesn't seem that such quarterbacks picked in the 2nd and 3rd are winners. Yes, occasionally, a QB picked in the first turns out to be a game manager and a winner.
==============
And yes, I understand that it is easy to want to fight with Andy. But data does help the rest of us in evaluating your positions.

 

[jdlboot14]

With the logic around Cam being much better because of the supporting cast - wouldn't the same be said for Stidham??
I mean, supporting cast had nothing to do with even Cam's biggest fans turning on him by the end of the season.
The truth was obvious - his arm, and his fundamentals, and his decision-making capacity and quickness - were simply gone.
I believe Pats are going to draft someone like Mond in the 2/3 round. But Cam is (depressingly) going to start (unless Stid shows out in camp).
I truly believe it will be an open competition. I truly believe neither Cam nor Stid is BB's plan for more than this year, unless a miracle happens.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Please enlighten us. Who are the SB winning mediocre game managers? Who are conference champion?
Since the focus is on 2nd and 3rd picks, please ignore any first rounders.
========
I understand your point. It just doesn't seem that such quarterbacks picked in the 2nd and 3rd are winners. Yes, occasionally, a QB picked in the first turns out to be a game manager and a winner.
==============
And yes, I understand that it is easy to want to fight with Andy. But data does help the rest of us in evaluating your positions.

Johnson and rypkien come to mind.

 

[Hyped]

So wait. The greatest QB in history could come out after 2 years of starting, but instead you would take a mediocre guy who played 4 years?
That makes no sense. You aren’t evaluating statistics. You are evaluating skills, and ability to play the position. You aren’t better because you have more reps on film.

We spent a 6th on the GOAT. The mediocre guy with more tape is a better baseline than a phenom who has only played two seasons of college ball. The upside is greater for the latter, but it is risky to spend that much draft capital on the guy based on so little information. Trevor Lawrence? Yeah, I am sold! Wilson who was in a battle for his job only a year ago? Lance who played one game over the last 13-16 months? Jones who finally got his shot on a loaded team when Tua hurt his hip? Of all of the top 2-5 guys, I like Fields the best...at least we saw him shred Clemson in the final 4....but this guy also transferred from Georgia because the Bills QB #3 was entrenched as the starter....

Give me BPA in the first and Monds/Mills/Trask in rounds 2/3/4 any day and twice on Sundays.

 

[Patriot Missile]

And lost badly

Right, but if Belichick was the coach it would of been different.

 

[Patriot Missile]

I have no problem starting a veteran like Cam. I do have a problem if there is no improvement and he still throwing at receivers feet and he is still starting at end of year. To be honest, heads should roll if he fails and they don’t have a backup plan. They should know by the end of preseason if he should start or not. Should have a plan b considering all the money spent by ownership.

If they trade up I’m ok with that for Lance, Fields or Jones. If they are dead certain that Mond, Mills etc are diamonds in the rough, so be it.

Ideal scenario is Cam shocks everyone, totally gets it and his arm is ok. It’s a long shot I know.

 

[Ring 6]

We spent a 6th on the GOAT. The mediocre guy with more tape is a better baseline than a phenom who has only played two seasons of college ball. The upside is greater for the latter, but it is risky to spend that much draft capital on the guy based on so little information. Trevor Lawrence? Yeah, I am sold! Wilson who was in a battle for his job only a year ago? Lance who played one game over the last 13-16 months? Jones who finally got his shot on a loaded team when Tua hurt his hip? Of all of the top 2-5 guys, I like Fields the best...at least we saw him shred Clemson in the final 4....but this guy also transferred from Georgia because the Bills QB #3 was entrenched as the starter....

Give me BPA in the first and Monds/Mills/Trask in rounds 2/3/4 any day and twice on Sundays.

Then we will wallow in mediocrity with garbage at qb.

 

[Ring 6]

Right, but if Belichick was the coach it would of been different.

Um belichick lost the afccg to the same team with Tom Brady.

 

[Patriot Missile]

Um belichick lost the afccg to the same team with Tom Brady.

Lots of help from the refs. But yeah, of all the things it was Belichick not ponying up for Branch. He would of been the difference in that game.