Your Second Tier QB Thoughts --- {Poll Added}

[Ochmed Jones]

Can't trade up to get your guy in 2021?
Trade several of the 10 picks into 2022 and amass beau coupe draft trade up capital for next year's guy.
Admittedly, I won't be watching lots of Cam debacle blowouts this season if so.

the thought of watching newton play 16 games next season is nauseating.

 

[mgteich]

I’m saying a strong running game, strong defense and a game manager at qb that does not turn the ball over and can make a few plays a game is a formula that can win playoff game!

I hear you.

That isn't the issue. With a top 10 quarterback, we would again be favorites to go deep in the playoffs each year, and win more Super Bowls.

And before you all ask, YES, I think it possible for one of the following to become a top 10 quarterback on the patriots: Mariota, Bridgewater, Jimmy, another to be named by Belichick.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

the thought of watching newton play 16 games next season is nauseating.

But how do you feel about 17?

 

[mgteich]

But how do you feel about 17?

The backup will play Game 17.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

But how do you feel about 17?

That 17 game schedule is hard to get used to! My bad!

 

[VJCPatriot]

With not much tape, combine data, and zoom interviews for the 2021 QB class...it got me curious as to how many attempts the QB class had over their college career versus the 2021 class. IOW, how much tape do the scouts have on the 2021 class. Here's the data I complied....(Yes, @venecol ...I need to get out more ;-p):

Top 12 QB's in the 2021 Class:

Lawrence: 1,138
Wilson: 837
Lance: 318
Fields: 618
Jones: 556
Mills: 438
Trask: 813
Mond: 1,358
Book: 1,141
Ehlinger: 1,476
Newman: 506
Franks: 860

According to that Logic - Ehlinger should be taken #1 overall, followed by Mond at #2, then the 3rd QB taken off the board is Book, and 4th overall QB in this draft class is Trevor Lawrence.

It's not about the amount of reps, it's about the quality of the film and the projected upside based on numerous factors - arm talent, athleticism, decision making, accuracy, poise, physical and mental makeup etc.

 

[Brit patriot]

The Patriots won 7 games last season with an awful team, no depth, and a really hard schedule. I am not sure how it can be argued that with a much improved roster and an easier schedule we will do worse, even if Cam is there. It just strikes me as the argument of a toddler who may not get the toy they want.

As for the QB draft (if that is what we do) I am less interested in getting a highly touted media darling just to placate the forum. If they love a guy, great, but if not, don't invest the farm.

If the team think a Mond or Mills are the steal of the draft in the 2nd or 3rd, I have no issue as proper QB evaluators will see things I don't. Any decision will affect the future and people's jobs, so I would rather they go with their gut. I am less interested on percentages of busts/studs in each round.

 

[1960Pats]

Do tell....

Nope. I'm closing in on the Patsfans football pool. In 9 years I've moved up into the top 10 or 20. I could reach the top if I live long enough so I'm not sharing my secret.

 

[sb1]

i could be wrong, but didn’t Baltimore win a super bowl with dilfer?

Is newton better than dilfer?

QB’s like Dilfer never win on their own. Ravens defense got Dilfer a ring. Bucs defense got Brad Johnson a ring. Rypien who wasn’t that bad of a QB still benefited from one of the greatest offensive lines in league history. Broncos defense got the shell of Fivehead a ring.

Pats defense was kinda lousy last year, looks ok on paper this year but they are still not close to what those other QBs had. They need something from the QB position a lot better than they had last year.

 

[1960Pats]

I think the real key to these second tier QBs is not the measurables. It's the drive to improve and succeed. You want a guy with a really huge chip on his shoulder who will just do everything in his power to get better. Because the guy knows he was taken later, because he was passed over, he has weaknesses in his game. It's the Quarterback with that relentless work ethic to improve those weaknesses that will be a success story.

Unfortunately it's hard to see that drive by just watching film alone. You talk about a guy who nobody saw coming, it's Tom Brady. It's because nobody knew he would have this unmatched hunger to improve and a competitive fire second to none. His physical attributes were only measured as average to even below average in some categories. So I honestly don't know who will rise from the second tier of QBs because I don't know any of these guys personally. At this point scouts/coaches have to do their homework and talk with the people around these guys to see who might have the 'indicators' that they are going to go that extra mile and can be 'grown' into a much better QB than just their body of work on film and their combines/pro days.

In other words I have no idea, I'd rather move up for an elite prospect in the top 10, one of the big 5 QBs because the evaluations have been exhaustively done on those guys and they have elite measurable traits. To succeed in drafting a QB on Day 2 or Day 3 is much harder because intangibles are much more important when athleticism/physical ability is mostly NFL average. But how do you measure the intangibles?

There was one person who saw how special Brady was, Pats QB coach **** Rehbein. According to his widow, Rehbein predicted that everyone would know Brady's name in 20 years. Man was that prophetic.

When I watched The Brady 6 I saw that his head coach called him the hardest worker he ever saw and his counselor added that he had total respect for authority. Those two things made him a perfect match with Belichick.

One problem with drafting QBs or any players is that young men mature at different ages. Some could take years while others are pro-ready from the start. There's no way to predict those things.

As for predictions, between this thread and the other QB related threads, every conceivable name has been thrown out there. Of course some will be correct.

No matter what though, if we don't take the BPA and go with a 2nd tier QB I hope he ends up better than the 2nd tier QB who's our starter now.

 

[mgteich]

The Patriots won 7 games last season with an awful team, no depth, and a really hard schedule. I am not sure how it can be argued that with a much improved roster and an easier schedule we will do worse, even if Cam is there. It just strikes me as the argument of a toddler who may not get the toy they want.

with Cam

DEFENSE - much improved
RUNNING GAME - improved because of addition of TE's and improved FB
PASSING GAME - improved because of better talent
QUARTERBACK DECISION-MAKING - improved because Cam will know the offense
=======================
CONCLUSION ONE
We were a 7-9 team last year. It seems a bit crazy to suggest that we aren't competing for a playoff spot this year.
=========================
CONCLUSION TWO
I want us to trade for the #4 pick and draft Fields, or Lance.
Absent that, I would want us to trade for Mariota, Jimmy, or Bridgewater.
Belichick thinks much more of Cam that do posters. However, he is unlikely to be the future top 10 QB we need.

 

[Ollie]

The Mond hype bus does appear to be gaining speed as the draft nears.

 

[patsinthesnow]

Out of curiosity here are the QBs drafted in the top half of the second round since 1998:



second half of the second round:



Sizeable difference in quality. Wasn't expecting that much success from picks 32-48 but it's pretty good IMO.

 

[zipster9]

with Cam

DEFENSE - much improved
RUNNING GAME - improved because of addition of TE's and improved FB
PASSING GAME - improved because of better talent
QUARTERBACK DECISION-MAKING - improved because Cam will know the offense
=======================
CONCLUSION ONE
We were a 7-9 team last year. It seems a bit crazy to suggest that we aren't competing for a playoff spot this year.
=========================
CONCLUSION TWO
I want us to trade for the #4 pick and draft Fields, or Lance.
Absent that, I would want us to trade for Mariota, Jimmy, or Bridgewater.
Belichick thinks much more of Cam that do posters. However, he is unlikely to be the future top 10 QB we need.

"I want us to trade for the #4 pick and draft Fields, or Lance."

Me too. Both have tremendous up side. Let Niners select Mac Jones....

 

[Calhoun44]

the thought of watching newton play 16 games next season is nauseating.

I'm very confident in Cam's ability to improve from last season. I really enjoyed their willingness to pound the ball inside with Harris and Cam last season. So with that part of the offense being rock solid all we need is for Cam to hit the TE's on play action a bunch and all of a sudden we have a great running game instead of just a good running game. I absolutely love what the roster looks like as of today, after the draft and training camp we will have an even better idea. But as everyone knows, we won't really know the identity of this team until late November or early December.

 

[zipster9]

The Mond hype bus does appear to be gaining speed as the draft nears.

Hope for the best...Prepare for the worst...

 

[Hyped]

According to that Logic - Ehlinger should be taken #1 overall, followed by Mond at #2, then the 3rd QB taken off the board is Book, and 4th overall QB in this draft class is Trevor Lawrence.

It's not about the amount of reps, it's about the quality of the film and the projected upside based on numerous factors - arm talent, athleticism, decision making, accuracy, poise, physical and mental makeup etc.

More film = better quality of information in which to make a judgement upon, no?

E.g. we have more information that Ehlinger LIKELY ISN'T the best QB in this draft, no? Some of the others (other than Lawrence)....we have no real idea.

IOW, I like Monds a lot better.....feel he is a safe pick with a good baseline.

 

[Bourne Again Christian]

More film = better quality of information in which to make a judgement upon, no?

E.g. we have more information that Ehlinger LIKELY ISN'T the best QB in this draft, no? Some of the others (other than Lawrence)....we have no real idea.

IOW, I like Monds a lot better.....feel he is a safe pick with a good baseline.

Mond in the second Mills In the third, Newman in the fifth.

 

[Hyped]

Mond in the second Mills In the third, Newman in the fifth.

I like em' all...and I am particularly enamored with Mills...if his knee holds up and was the only reason he is a 2nd tier prospect (could have been a 5 star recruit out of high school and more known by now)....he could be something good if he fills in that frame (only 212 lbs) and gets a year under his belt.

 

[50-yard-line]

The QBs we have stink. We aren’t winning with them. That is clear. The 73 QBs drafted after round 1 on the last 9 years, since Russell Wilson have won 3 playoffs games, 2 of them by a guy who is getting replaced because he is made of glass. So sure you can draft a qb after round 1 but 73 in a row haven’t cut it, not very good odds.

They always cut the timeline short, since in 2012, three guys selected in the mid-rounds had good pro-careers.

Of those 73, how many ever even saw the field other than in garbage time or a couple of games here and there when the starter was down? The number looks a lot less impressive once you get to those realities, particularly when you consider that a guy like, say, Stidham, who get minimal chances, won't really be looked at by other teams as he ends his rookie deal.

Add in the reality that only a handful of teams each year win a playoff game, and many of the QBs on some of those teams have been the QB for a long time (Brady's been stealing 2-3, even 4 wins a year for 20 years), and the statistic becomes even less impressive.

If Mond or Mills or Trask run as fast or can throw nearly as well as some of the "super 5," and better than others of that group, then the physical tools are obviously there and it comes down to evaluations - which are always tricky, particularly in college, where one guy might be throwing to Waddle and Smith, or Chase, and might have a dominant cast of characters, like OL, around him.

This year looks a lot like 2012 to me. Best QB year in many:
Round 1:
Luck 1
Griffen 2
Tannehill 8
Wheeden 22

Round 2:
Osweiler 57

Round 3:
Wilson 75
Foles 88

Round 4:
Kirk Cousins 102

You see a big difference in the careers between the top 3 and the last 3 on that list? (And it's only close because Tannehill was revived by a team that had a scheme perfect for his skill set.

So why won't Mond, Mills, Trask, maybe Newman work out?