Your Second Tier QB Thoughts --- {Poll Added}

[Pats1971]

Thing is, nobody knows. I have seen the can't miss, this guy will be a star QB never make it past their first contract and I have seen guys that nobody even talked about playing 15 years at a high level. Its really a crap shoot.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Every qb has strengths and weaknesses. Finding the right offensive fit is part of the formula to a qb’s success!

 

[Pats1971]

Every qb has strengths and weaknesses. Finding the right offensive fit is part of the formula to a qb’s success!

Very correct. A lot of teams and scouts and coaches get enamored by, wow he can throw 50 yards from his knee!! So, can he come up big in a playoff game? Can he take the hits? Can he read a defense? Can he know the right throw might not always be the easier throw, but then again it might be the easier throw? There are so many things that go into a QB being great, it goes way beyond what their 40 yard dash or their scripted pro days.

 

[VJCPatriot]

I think the real key to these second tier QBs is not the measurables. It's the drive to improve and succeed. You want a guy with a really huge chip on his shoulder who will just do everything in his power to get better. Because the guy knows he was taken later, because he was passed over, he has weaknesses in his game. It's the Quarterback with that relentless work ethic to improve those weaknesses that will be a success story.

Unfortunately it's hard to see that drive by just watching film alone. You talk about a guy who nobody saw coming, it's Tom Brady. It's because nobody knew he would have this unmatched hunger to improve and a competitive fire second to none. His physical attributes were only measured as average to even below average in some categories. So I honestly don't know who will rise from the second tier of QBs because I don't know any of these guys personally. At this point scouts/coaches have to do their homework and talk with the people around these guys to see who might have the 'indicators' that they are going to go that extra mile and can be 'grown' into a much better QB than just their body of work on film and their combines/pro days.

In other words I have no idea, I'd rather move up for an elite prospect in the top 10, one of the big 5 QBs because the evaluations have been exhaustively done on those guys and they have elite measurable traits. To succeed in drafting a QB on Day 2 or Day 3 is much harder because intangibles are much more important when athleticism/physical ability is mostly NFL average. But how do you measure the intangibles?

 

[Ochmed Jones]

As much as I like mills, the bottom line is that we do not run a vertical offense like Stanford, so drafting mills is a pure projection.

 

[Pats1971]

I think the real key to these second tier QBs is not the measurables. It's the drive to improve and succeed. You want a guy with a really huge chip on his shoulder who will just do everything in his power to get better. Because the guy knows he was taken later, because he was passed over, he has weaknesses in his game. It's the Quarterback with that relentless work ethic to improve those weaknesses that will be a success story.

Unfortunately it's hard to see that drive by just watching film alone. You talk about a guy who nobody saw coming, it's Tom Brady. It's because nobody knew he would have this unmatched hunger to improve and a competitive fire second to none. His physical attributes were only measured as average to even below average in some categories. So I honestly don't know who will rise from the second tier of QBs because I don't know any of these guys personally. At this point scouts/coaches have to do their homework and talk with the people around these guys to see who might have the 'indicators' that they are going to go that extra mile and can be 'grown' into a much better QB than just their body of work on film and their combines/pro days.

In other words I have no idea, I'd rather move up for an elite prospect in the top 10, one of the big 5 QBs because the evaluations have been exhaustively done on those guys and they have elite measurable traits. To succeed in drafting a QB on Day 2 or Day 3 is much harder because intangibles are much more important when athleticism/physical ability is mostly NFL average. But how do you measure the intangibles?

Wow that was a great post. I do not even want to try and add to it because I can't. The quick answer is, you can't see or measure intangibles until after they get into the NFL. They think they can, but really they can't. You just get lucky sometimes I guess.

 

[captain stone]

The one that stands out the most is BYU’s Zach Wilson.

On the weekend he drives 10 hours to work on his game with QB guru John Beck—I almost typed Jeff, which would have gotten Captain Stone on my case—who calls Zach Wilson “a football junkie.”

Can't get on your case for the man (& men) who created this masterpiece...What a lineup...

 

[d312]

I think the real key to these second tier QBs is not the measurables. It's the drive to improve and succeed. You want a guy with a really huge chip on his shoulder who will just do everything in his power to get better. Because the guy knows he was taken later, because he was passed over, he has weaknesses in his game. It's the Quarterback with that relentless work ethic to improve those weaknesses that will be a success story.

Unfortunately it's hard to see that drive by just watching film alone. You talk about a guy who nobody saw coming, it's Tom Brady. It's because nobody knew he would have this unmatched hunger to improve and a competitive fire second to none. His physical attributes were only measured as average to even below average in some categories. So I honestly don't know who will rise from the second tier of QBs because I don't know any of these guys personally. At this point scouts/coaches have to do their homework and talk with the people around these guys to see who might have the 'indicators' that they are going to go that extra mile and can be 'grown' into a much better QB than just their body of work on film and their combines/pro days.

In other words I have no idea, I'd rather move up for an elite prospect in the top 10, one of the big 5 QBs because the evaluations have been exhaustively done on those guys and they have elite measurable traits. To succeed in drafting a QB on Day 2 or Day 3 is much harder because intangibles are much more important when athleticism/physical ability is mostly NFL average. But how do you measure the intangibles?

You're absolutely correct about the intangibles!!! A very deep dive background investigation would be a start. Human intelligence by speaking with anybody who'll talk. Players, coaches, trainers, friends, family. Some will give a "party line" but you should be able to get a consensus on the individual. That may or may not be good enough. Without knowing it would be difficult to spend valuable high level draft capital. It's not an easy decision.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

I think the real key to these second tier QBs is not the measurables. It's the drive to improve and succeed. You want a guy with a really huge chip on his shoulder who will just do everything in his power to get better. Because the guy knows he was taken later, because he was passed over, he has weaknesses in his game. It's the Quarterback with that relentless work ethic to improve those weaknesses that will be a success story.

Unfortunately it's hard to see that drive by just watching film alone. You talk about a guy who nobody saw coming, it's Tom Brady. It's because nobody knew he would have this unmatched hunger to improve and a competitive fire second to none. His physical attributes were only measured as average to even below average in some categories. So I honestly don't know who will rise from the second tier of QBs because I don't know any of these guys personally. At this point scouts/coaches have to do their homework and talk with the people around these guys to see who might have the 'indicators' that they are going to go that extra mile and can be 'grown' into a much better QB than just their body of work on film and their combines/pro days.

In other words I have no idea, I'd rather move up for an elite prospect in the top 10, one of the big 5 QBs because the evaluations have been exhaustively done on those guys and they have elite measurable traits. To succeed in drafting a QB on Day 2 or Day 3 is much harder because intangibles are much more important when athleticism/physical ability is mostly NFL average. But how do you measure the intangibles?

Great thoughts. That's partly why I'm willing to bet on a guy like Mond, although he clearly still needs development. Give him a few years and see what happens.

Texas A&M QB Kellen Mond Is Rising Up Draft Boards

Everyone is talking about the five top QB prospects, but an experienced SEC signal-caller is rising up draft boards after choreographing his own pro day.

www.si.com

 

[Hyped]

With not much tape, combine data, and zoom interviews for the 2021 QB class...it got me curious as to how many attempts the QB class had over their college career versus the 2021 class. IOW, how much tape do the scouts have on the 2021 class. Here's the data I complied....(Yes, @venecol ...I need to get out more ;-p):

Top 12 QB's in the 2021 Class:

Lawrence: 1,138
Wilson: 837
Lance: 318
Fields: 618
Jones: 556
Mills: 438
Trask: 813
Mond: 1,358
Book: 1,141
Ehlinger: 1,476
Newman: 506
Franks: 860

Top 12 QB's drafted in 2020:

Burrow: 906
Tagovailoa: 684
Herbert: 1,293
Love: 1,125
Hurts: 1,047
Eason: 782
Morgan: 1,221
Fromm: 982
Luton: 797
McDonald: 1,004
DiNucci: 167
Stevens: 202

=================

Observations & things I read while doing research:

- Kellen Mond had the 2nd most attempts in his college career...a result of being a 4 year guy...(Ehlinger being #1).

- Newman received a glowing review from our own Justin Herron...take that FWIW.

- Ehlinger had 303 consecutive attempts without an interception during his career. Trey Lance has the single season record with 287 attempts w/o INT.

- Franks should be an UDFA target for us....I read some interesting things about him.

- I think Lance is gonna slide.....318 attempts at the FCS level....hard to invest a lot into that.

 

[Ring 6]

It just occurred to me that Chris Simms talking about SF wanting Mac may also be a bluff. SF says “pay a 1st for Jimmy”, Bill says nah I’ll just draft Mac, SF “leaks” that they traded up for Mac so he won’t be there for Bill to take.

It doesn’t matter which one they take the other will still be there.

 

[Ring 6]

With not much tape, combine data, and zoom interviews for the 2021 QB class...it got me curious as to how many attempts the QB class had over their college career versus the 2021 class. IOW, how much tape do the scouts have on the 2021 class. Here's the data I complied....(Yes, @venecol ...I need to get out more ;-p):

Top 12 QB's in the 2021 Class:

Lawrence: 1,138
Wilson: 837
Lance: 318
Fields: 618
Jones: 556
Mills: 438
Trask: 813
Mond: 1,358
Book: 1,141
Ehlinger: 1,476
Newman: 506
Franks: 860

Top 12 QB's drafted in 2020:

Burrow: 906
Tagovailoa: 684
Herbert: 1,293
Love: 1,125
Hurts: 1,047
Eason: 782
Morgan: 1,221
Fromm: 982
Luton: 797
McDonald: 1,004
DiNucci: 167
Stevens: 202

=================

Observations & things I read while doing research:

- Kellen Mond had the 2nd most attempts in his college career...a result of being a 4 year guy...(Ehlinger being #1).

- Newman received a glowing review from our own Justin Herron...take that FWIW.

- Ehlinger had 303 consecutive attempts without an interception during his career. Trey Lance has the single season record with 287 attempts w/o INT.

- Franks should be an UDFA target for us....I read some interesting things about him.

- I think Lance is gonna slide.....318 attempts at the FCS level....hard to invest a lot into that.

All that doesn’t mean a whole hell of a lot. You aren’t drafting them based upon who had the best college career. You are evaluating their skill set and how it translates to the NFL.
Justin Fields isn’t a better QB in 2022 if he spent another year at Ohio State. It gives you more to see in your evaluation but 2 years in the big 10 and the playoffs is plenty to know what you’ve got.

 

[BlueThunder]

Interesting that Pats interviewed KJ Costello...due diligence or something else?

 

[Hyped]

It gives you more to see in your evaluation but 2 years in the big 10 and the playoffs is plenty to know what you’ve got.

I say more evaluation is needed if we are to trade up though. IOW, I think the Niners are crazy.

 

[Ring 6]

I say more evaluation is needed if we are to trade up though. IOW, I think the Niners are crazy.

Yet they will have 2 QBs and a Sb caliber roster and we may have no qb at all.

 

[Ring 6]

I say more evaluation is needed if we are to trade up though. IOW, I think the Niners are crazy.

You don’t get the opportunity for more evaluation. You need a qb. You can’t make your own rules or else you end up empty handed.

 

[Jim Beankie]

After going back and looking at the QB classes of the last dozen years or so, I'm shocked at how few QBs amount to ANYTHING in the NFL. With a notable exception or two (2012), almost all the names soon become "who?"

Maybe it's because the teams that need QBs and so play the youngsters before they just rot out of the league always go high, but wow, this is a tough position. Other than the Wilsons, Prescotts, and few notable others, there just aren't any hits (Brady was the luckiest shot in history!).

Day 2 looks like Trask, Mills, or Mond, maybe Jamie Newman...but it's likely none of them will succeed to any great extent.

Here's hoping it's 2012 all over again, where Wilson, Foles, adn Cousins were all 3rd rounders!

2012 NFL draft - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Go through year by year and sort by position to see a straight list of the QB's and where they were taken, if you have the stomach for it.

If SF thinks they've got the guy they want at #3, I'm not so sure they screwed up at all.

This is the list I use to peruse:

DraftHistory.com

www.drafthistory.com

 

[zipster9]

Not sure why they say Kellen Mond is a dual threat. He's not that fast.


"Former Texas A&M quarterback Kellen Mond did his best to prove he is worth a selection in the 2021 NFL draft during Tuesday's pro day.

Mond showcased his athleticism with a 40-yard dash time of 4.57 seconds, per Billy Liucci of TexAgs.com."

"Mond has been viewed as a player to get drafted in Day 2 or Day 3 with less upside due to his streaky decision making at times in college. His arm strength is top-tier and his durability isn’t to be questioned after staying on the field for four tough years against college football’s best players."

And with McDaniels keeping tabs with him, he may be Patriots pick, meaning no QB in 1st-round for Patriots. If that is the case they better not draft a CB wih #15 !!!

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Not sure why they say Kellen Mond is a dual threat. He's not that fast.


"Former Texas A&M quarterback Kellen Mond did his best to prove he is worth a selection in the 2021 NFL draft during Tuesday's pro day.

Mond showcased his athleticism with a 40-yard dash time of 4.57 seconds, per Billy Liucci of TexAgs.com."

"Mond has been viewed as a player to get drafted in Day 2 or Day 3 with less upside due to his streaky decision making at times in college. His arm strength is top-tier and his durability isn’t to be questioned after staying on the field for four tough years against college football’s best players."

And with McDaniels keeping tabs with him, he may be Patriots pick, meaning no QB in 1st-round for Patriots. If that is the case they better not draft a CB wih #15 !!!

Why not? Please draft the best player available. Gilmore has been critical to our success, but he is not getting younger, and Jackson is in the last year of his rookie deal. Although not a corner, D McC is long in the tooth as well. We need a #1 CB and a #1 Free Safety.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Not sure why they say Kellen Mond is a dual threat. He's not that fast.


"Former Texas A&M quarterback Kellen Mond did his best to prove he is worth a selection in the 2021 NFL draft during Tuesday's pro day.

Mond showcased his athleticism with a 40-yard dash time of 4.57 seconds, per Billy Liucci of TexAgs.com."

"Mond has been viewed as a player to get drafted in Day 2 or Day 3 with less upside due to his streaky decision making at times in college. His arm strength is top-tier and his durability isn’t to be questioned after staying on the field for four tough years against college football’s best players."

And with McDaniels keeping tabs with him, he may be Patriots pick, meaning no QB in 1st-round for Patriots. If that is the case they better not draft a CB wih #15 !!!

That is fast. It's on the high end for a running QB / dual threat QB, in fact. That's RB / WR territory. Cam ran a 4.56. Russell Wilson 4.55. Watson 4.67. Dak 4.74. Josh Allen 4.75. Herbert 4.68. Mahomes 4.81. What did you expect him to run? He's primarily a passer, but he's got scrambling ability. He isn't quite as fast as Lamar Jackson or Kyler Murray, but they're outliers even among athletic QBs.