2021 QB Pool

[50-yard-line]

San Fran has a big decision to make with Jimmy Garoppolo in the off-season. Keeping him is a $25 million cap hit, and that's a lot of money for a QB who's more a game manager and who has missed 29 games in under four seasons and who was top half of the QB lists in only one year.

25m to keep him, but only 2.8m in dead cap to cut him.

Not sure I'd keep him without a renegotiation, and not sure he'd do it.

 

[mgteich]

These are NOT alternatives. We need all three.

1) top 15 pick (one of the top five QB's, which may require another pick or two to get a QB acceptable to Bill.
2) a veteran, even if he cost $15M a year; after all he will likely start Game 1 (Cam, Winston, Brissett are all possible)
3) a long shot #3 back up, who might survive camp and who potentially could be the #2 in a year or 2 (this could be late draft choice tp compete with Stidham in camp)

 

[mgteich]

.

My guess would be if we don’t get whoever is not taken by the Jags, Bill is going to pass on a QB in round one. Unless there is a trade up.

And why wouldn't there be a trade up? I would expect this to be the most likely draft option. Posters here will say that Bill wasted resources in the trade, and that he could have waited. However, this is NOT the year to take such chances.

 

[ToonPatriot]

I didn't watch the game, but how do y'all feel about Trask after that loss last night?

Was a career backup before last night and still is after.

 

[lancerman]

And why wouldn't there be a trade up? I would expect this to be the most likely draft option. Posters here will say that Bill wasted resources in the trade, and that he could have waited. However, this is NOT the year to take such chances.

Example; tor the Jets at 6 to get the number 2 pick from the Colts they needed to swap first and Indy needed to give up three 2nd round picks. We will be somewhere mid draft

 

[NYCPATS4LIFE]

Was a career backup before last night and still is after.

He let his team down the field and they missed the fg. Let’s see how he does against bama before saying he’s a backup. I wanted zack wilson but he’s out of reach thanks to those wins late.

 

[Jim Beankie]

It's interesting that the top 2 GOATs in the NFL (besides being picked in the 3rd and 6th rounds) were both nicknamed "Comeback Kid" in college. That being said, it's probably an overused nickname, although mainly for injuries. I'll be curious to see who follows in their footsteps as the next Neo in the Matrix type of statistical anomaly (part time starter even in their final college year; so many notable comebacks throughout college and the pros; sub par measurables, talent-wise; etc). Assuming he has another win/comeback or 2 in him, I can see Ian Book as a guy like that for this year, not that I'd want him for the Pats, although if he's available in the 6th or 7th (not gonna happen) and doesn't implode the rest of the year, I wouldn't mind taking a flyer.

 

[Addictive]

If this season has taught or tried to teach us fans anything is that Bill plays to win. Under him there is no tanking, it shall not be considered an option. Would it be nice to have Trevor Lawrence for the next 15 years, sure but not at the expensive of having a worse record than the Jets and losing every game of the year.

We wonder why Cam still starts after several putrid performances and it must be that Cam gives us the best chance for a victory each week.

Bill never thinks about what draft position might we be if we lose this game? Bill could care less about the draft, he'll find players suited to the Patriots Way Of Life. It's why our list of possible draftees is always much shorter than other franchises.

Bill wants to become the all-time most winning coach. We should all support that.

So next season, he won't be starting a rookie QB unless Bill is convinced the rookie can get us to win game one of the season.

Bill won't be vacillating over whether to start Stidham or another untested QB unless either has shown tremendous improvement in the off-season.

I think it's very likely the QB for the Patriots will be an already established player who has been cut (or possibly we trade for).

Bill wants to win games. The end.

 

[luuked]

San Fran has a big decision to make with Jimmy Garoppolo in the off-season. Keeping him is a $25 million cap hit, and that's a lot of money for a QB who's more a game manager and who has missed 29 games in under four seasons and who was top half of the QB lists in only one year.

25m to keep him, but only 2.8m in dead cap to cut him.

Not sure I'd keep him without a renegotiation, and not sure he'd do it.

I don't see this as a big decision for the 49ers at all. They have not many reason to move on from JG because above all they lack a viable alternative. 25m is not a lot of money for a consistent QB that understands and has shown he can efficiently run a team's offense.

The obvious way for them to maybe upgrade is to draft a young player and develop him while JG keeps doing his thing except this time stays hopefully healthy.

What exactly is the incentive for the 49ers to create an even bigger hole at QB when they are in a situation where a lot of their draft hits will soon transition away from those affordable rookie deals ?

 

[sportnik]

I think much of the speculation of him being available comes from salary cap implications. If the NFL reduces the cap down to a predicted 175M, then many teams will be in a serious bind. Releasing or trading your most expensive player makes some instant cap relief.

The Niners are in serious cap trouble and will have to shed players. Shanahan has been non-comital about the QB role.

 

[sb1]

It's interesting that the top 2 GOATs in the NFL (besides being picked in the 3rd and 6th rounds) were both nicknamed "Comeback Kid" in college. That being said, it's probably an overused nickname, although mainly for injuries. I'll be curious to see who follows in their footsteps as the next Neo in the Matrix type of statistical anomaly (part time starter even in their final college year; so many notable comebacks throughout college and the pros; sub par measurables, talent-wise; etc). Assuming he has another win/comeback or 2 in him, I can see Ian Book as a guy like that for this year, not that I'd want him for the Pats, although if he's available in the 6th or 7th (not gonna happen) and doesn't implode the rest of the year, I wouldn't mind taking a flyer.

Book would make a much better Toronto Argonaut than NE Patriot.

 

[jdlboot14]

These are NOT alternatives. We need all three.

1) top 15 pick (one of the top five QB's, which may require another pick or two to get a QB acceptable to Bill.
2) a veteran, even if he cost $15M a year; after all he will likely start Game 1 (Cam, Winston, Brissett are all possible)
3) a long shot #3 back up, who might survive camp and who potentially could be the #2 in a year or 2 (this could be late draft choice tp compete with Stidham in camp)

I mentioned these same 3 categories a couple weeks ago. And I agree, the odds are 10-1 that BB will start any FA acquisition over a top draftee, so even if we get Wilson or Jones, whoever he grabs off the scrap heap in free agency will likely be the guy to play most of the year. Which is why I'd rather keep Stidham because he'll be in his 3rd year of this offense - a big leg up on a new guy. (And I don't want anymore of Cam)

 

[luuked]

The Niners are in serious cap trouble and will have to shed players. Shanahan has been non-comital about the QB role.

??

They are projected to be about 22M above the salary cap based on those low end 175M projections. In what world is that "serious cap trouble" ?

Also, there have been consistent rumors about it going actually to 195M instead.

 

[slam]

Here's my attempt to lay out the options and costs for starting QB in 2021. Who would you pick? Let's pretend all of these are viable, even though some would clearly never happen.

Already on Team for 2021
Jarrett Stidham @<$1M/Year 'til 2022

Free Agents
Dak Prescott @$40M/Year
Cam Newton @ $25M/Year
Phil Rivers @$25M/Year
($25M is what Rivers got this year, so let's make $25M the going rate for big name QB you suspect is actually toast like Phil and Cam)
Jacoby Brissett @$15M
Ryan Fitzpatrick @10M
Mitchell Trubisky @$10M
Tyrod Taylor @$10M
Jameis Winston @10M
(Let's say $10-15M is the going rate for known mediocre placeholder QBs)

Trade Targets
Carson Wentz for conditional late round pick @$32M/Year 'til 2024
Jimmy Garrapolo for 2nd/3rd round pick for $25M/Year 'til 2022
Matthew Stafford for 1st round pick plus for $27M/Year 'til 2022
Sam Darnold for conditional late round pick for $7.5M/year 'til 2022

Draft Targets
Trevor Lawrence is not possible. Let's not kid ourselves.
Justin Fields (OSU) for at least two first round picks plus
Zach Wilson (BYU) for at least two first round picks plus
Trey Lance (NDSU) for two first round picks? Less since he didn't play this year?
Other draftable QB for 2nd round pick or lower

Other? Anything way off?

I think my 2021 QB room would be Fitzpatrick, Stidham, and whichever of Fields/Wilson/Lance is obtainable for up to two 1sts and a 3rd.

 

[Froob]

Fitzpatrick is a UFA next season. Personally I'd add Mariota as potential trade target. 27 years, 10m 1 year deal with the Raiders.. certainly more talented than Minshew.. but then again even Stidham is arguably not that far from Minshew.


Generally speaking I'd add the current APYs to each of those players because the only way this conversation makes sense is through the prism of the salary cap.

If you can have Cam for a 8m contract his value blows almost everyone else on your lists out of the water with the combination of "no draft assets used", "cheap deal" and "preexisting experience makes him an easier projection". If the assumption is that Cam will try to get 15-20m the equation will shift into a different direction.

Mariota? Why lol? He’s had only one good season ages ago. No way I’d pay him 10 mill.

 

[masterbouncer]

Here's my attempt to lay out the options and costs for starting QB in 2021. Who would you pick? Let's pretend all of these are viable, even though some would clearly never happen.

Already on Team for 2021
Jarrett Stidham @<$1M/Year 'til 2022

Free Agents
Dak Prescott @$40M/Year
Cam Newton @ $25M/Year
Phil Rivers @$25M/Year
($25M is what Rivers got this year, so let's make $25M the going rate for big name QB you suspect is actually toast like Phil and Cam)
Jacoby Brissett @$15M
Ryan Fitzpatrick @10M
Mitchell Trubisky @$10M
Tyrod Taylor @$10M
Jameis Winston @10M
(Let's say $10-15M is the going rate for known mediocre placeholder QBs)

Trade Targets
Carson Wentz for conditional late round pick @$32M/Year 'til 2024
Jimmy Garrapolo for 2nd/3rd round pick for $25M/Year 'til 2022
Matthew Stafford for 1st round pick plus for $27M/Year 'til 2022
Sam Darnold for conditional late round pick for $7.5M/year 'til 2022

Draft Targets
Trevor Lawrence is not possible. Let's not kid ourselves.
Justin Fields (OSU) for at least two first round picks plus
Zach Wilson (BYU) for at least two first round picks plus
Trey Lance (NDSU) for two first round picks? Less since he didn't play this year?
Other draftable QB for 2nd round pick or lower

Other? Anything way off?

I think my 2021 QB room would be Fitzpatrick, Stidham, and whichever of Fields/Wilson/Lance is obtainable for up to two 1sts and a 3rd.

You can't compare Cam and Rivers, Rivers is actually playing pretty good in Indy, while Cam is no way near 25 M, based on what he has shown this year, he should be happy if the Pats take him again for 1M/year plus performance based bonus, because no one wants a piece of a QB who is performing that bad

 

[Jim Beankie]

Book would make a much better Toronto Argonaut than NE Patriot.

I guess that's the point!

Walsh: “And we were the dregs of NFL football. Nobody could really take us very seriously. We found as many people as possible that would respond to our phone calls, and to a man, even those that were pretty high up in scouting and personnel, either felt he would not be drafted and would play up in Canada or he’d be drafted fifth round or later. That was the consensus."

[Edit - had to add this for the heck of it:]
Walsh: “Joe turned out to be a great player. It took some time. At Detroit (in November 1980), we split Charle Young out as a tight end and he ran a slant. Joe threw the ball into the stands. I don’t mean over Charle’s head. That ball went up in the stands and Charle looked around like, ‘What was that?’ Whatever it was, it slipped out of Joe’s hands because he was nervous or something."

 

[Taxed in Maine]

Here's my attempt to lay out the options and costs for starting QB in 2021. Who would you pick? Let's pretend all of these are viable, even though some would clearly never happen.

Already on Team for 2021
Jarrett Stidham @<$1M/Year 'til 2022

Free Agents
Dak Prescott @$40M/Year
Cam Newton @ $25M/Year
Phil Rivers @$25M/Year
($25M is what Rivers got this year, so let's make $25M the going rate for big name QB you suspect is actually toast like Phil and Cam)
Jacoby Brissett @$15M
Ryan Fitzpatrick @10M
Mitchell Trubisky @$10M
Tyrod Taylor @$10M
Jameis Winston @10M
(Let's say $10-15M is the going rate for known mediocre placeholder QBs)

Trade Targets
Carson Wentz for conditional late round pick @$32M/Year 'til 2024
Jimmy Garrapolo for 2nd/3rd round pick for $25M/Year 'til 2022
Matthew Stafford for 1st round pick plus for $27M/Year 'til 2022
Sam Darnold for conditional late round pick for $7.5M/year 'til 2022

Draft Targets
Trevor Lawrence is not possible. Let's not kid ourselves.
Justin Fields (OSU) for at least two first round picks plus
Zach Wilson (BYU) for at least two first round picks plus
Trey Lance (NDSU) for two first round picks? Less since he didn't play this year?
Other draftable QB for 2nd round pick or lower

Other? Anything way off?

I think my 2021 QB room would be Fitzpatrick, Stidham, and whichever of Fields/Wilson/Lance is obtainable for up to two 1sts and a 3rd.

$25M for Scam?!?!
he'll be lucky to be offered the league minimum to be a back-up.

If you go with a top rookie, it will take several years to rebuild. That's why I think they could seriously look toward JG or Darnold, and a FA WR & TE. Then augment the Defense thru the draft.

 

[luuked]

Mariota? Why lol? He’s had only one good season ages ago. No way I’d pay him 10 mill.

Quick release, good accuracy in short and intermediate, still good enough on foot to enable us to keep using options, seems to be also decisive in the pocket. He is also only 27 years old.

I don't see why he couldn't at least replicate what Tannehill is doing for the Titans.

If you have issues throwing 10M at a QB with upside then I am not sure what else there is except a veteran bridge guy.

 

[Froob]

Quick release, good accuracy in short and intermediate, still good enough on foot to enable us to keep using options, seems to be also decisive in the pocket. He is also only 27 years old.

I don't see why he couldn't at least replicate what Tannehill is doing for the Titans.

If you have issues throwing 10M at a QB with upside then I am not sure what else there is except a veteran bridge guy.

Just not sure I see much upside. Hasn’t had a good season since 2016. He could be good, but he needs a lot of work.