OT-ish: The gambling thread

[supafly]

Steve's Bathhouse. A dispensary 1.6 miles from me. The Atlantis Casino. Pokeher Knights (a swingers club), etc. Just all the sleeze a guy like me could have whenever he wanted.

Some random thoughts:

1) I actually looked up Pokher Knights and I can’t believe this place really exists.

2) Just remember that you’re dealing with Texas. Their tolerance for “mistakes” is much lower and some of the laws are ridiculously harsh. The weed laws, for example, can be downright stupid, especially if it’s in any other form than dried flower.

3) You’re probably going to have to get used to the idea of using a site like Bovada, as football season is right around the corner. It may not be a bad idea to get your initial deposit in sooner, rather than later, so you can get used to the site layout, lousy odds, and familiarize yourself with processing a withdrawal, etc. Some of those sites have that KYC (know your customer) policy where you’ll need to fax them a copy of your ID prior to making a withdrawal. Better to get that out of the way during the first few weeks of August so you’re an established client.

 

[Joker]

I got a high school buddy who's been living in Austin for 30 years now. A musician and artist...his name is Jack McCabe. Pretty well known in the artsy part of Austin. Tell him, if you meet him, that you hate J.O., he'll love you.

 

[fnordcircle]

2) Just remember that you’re dealing with Texas. Their tolerance for “mistakes” is much lower and some of the laws are ridiculously harsh. The weed laws, for example, can be downright stupid, especially if it’s in any other form than dried flower.

Yup, I'm playing it straight as a result. I thought a year of clean living would be good for me but so far uh, no.

3) You’re probably going to have to get used to the idea of using a site like Bovada, as football season is right around the corner. It may not be a bad idea to get your initial deposit in sooner, rather than later, so you can get used to the site layout, lousy odds, and familiarize yourself with processing a withdrawal, etc. Some of those sites have that KYC (know your customer) policy where you’ll need to fax them a copy of your ID prior to making a withdrawal. Better to get that out of the way during the first few weeks of August so you’re an established client.

Thanks - anyone in this thread have recommendations for sites that aren't ****bags about cashing out? Before I moved to Reno 5Dimes seemed like the place.

 

[maust]

Thanks - anyone in this thread have recommendations for sites that aren't ****bags about cashing out? Before I moved to Reno 5Dimes seemed like the place.

I've heard nothing but good things about Bovada

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Yup, I'm playing it straight as a result. I thought a year of clean living would be good for me but so far uh, no.



Thanks - anyone in this thread have recommendations for sites that aren't ****bags about cashing out? Before I moved to Reno 5Dimes seemed like the place.

I use Bov/BookMkr/MyBky & a local if I have to. Never had any problems $ out but I'm sure every shop has a bad apple or two. I'd recommend the w 1st two shops for sure. I use Bov prob the most & they had np $ out a nice size sum a few years ago.

 

[fightingirish595]

My inner degenerate is chomping at the bit. From the end of hockey season to the midpoint of the preseason when rosters take shape enough to feel comfortable hitting the season win O/U totals is just too long going without.

Should we continue here or crank out a 2019 version? What's the consensus?
Should we consider doing a poll...or no?
(Sorry, couldn't resist. I'll show myself out now)

I’m coool with continuing this thread or starting a new one

Yup, I'm playing it straight as a result. I thought a year of clean living would be good for me but so far uh, no.



Thanks - anyone in this thread have recommendations for sites that aren't ****bags about cashing out? Before I moved to Reno 5Dimes seemed like the place.

I've heard nothing but good things about Bovada

Bovada is solid you just have to use bitcoin now. Fnord, I can probably set you up with a bookie if you wanted me too. The thing is I don’t even know the guy. Basically I just pay the guy through Venmo if I win and he pays me if I win. I know it sounds crazy. But a lot of people actually do this. It just requires a mutual trust. If your interested you can PM me. The guy will only give you a 500 dollar credit limit though. I’ve been betting through him for over a year. Never had a problem. You can place wagers online or over the phone

 

[fightingirish595]

I use Bov/BookMkr/MyBky & a local if I have to. Never had any problems $ out but I'm sure every shop has a bad apple or two. I'd recommend the w 1st two shops for sure. I use Bov prob the most & they had np $ out a nice size sum a few years ago.

The only problem I ever had with bovada was when I turned 40 dollars of bonus money into 800 dollars of withdraw able money. I requested a check, and they were begging me for weeks to withdraw it using bitcoin. And they actually gave me 70 more dollars to do so. How could I refuse. So I guess it wasn’t a problem after all. I’ve done multiple withdrawals and I’ve gotten the money every time

 

[fightingirish595]

2019 CFB Futures Betting picks

College Football Playoff Outright Winner

Alabama (+200) 2 Units
Georgia (+750) 1 Unit

Two teams from the same conference? Am I nuts? Yes I might be, but I will be totally stunned if one of these teams is not in the title game. It looks like Clemson, Georgia, Alabama and then everyone else this year. Hopefully both make the playoff.

​

Heisman Trophy

Jalen Hurts (+900) .5 units
Jerry Jeudy (+5500) .2 units
Travis Etienne (+4000) .2 units

If a player from the Tigers or Tide wins the heisman, it will likely be one of the two QBs, so go ahead, tell me Jeudy and Etienne are bad bets. Both are so talented though, and my book gave me good odds as I have seen both of them at 20 and 25 to one on other books. Hurts I think is the value play here. Forget the fact that Oklahoma QBs have won back to back Heismans. The kids talented and plays in a conference that is all about offense. I have to think OU has a great chance at 12-1/13-0, winning the big 12, and making the playoff. If they do that, its hard for me to imagine Hurts not having an amazing year at the same time
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Power 5 Conference Champions Bets/Picks

ACC- Clemson
Big 10- Michigan St (+1200) .25 units
Big 12- Iowa St (+700) .36 units
Pac 12- Oregon
SEC- Georgia

I generally do not like to bet/pick favorites in futures unless I have got some kind of angle that I like. Clemson is like -900 but who else am I going to pick. They should win that conference with their eyes closed. I am not confident enough in Oregon and I have enough invested in Georgia who may need to win the conference anyway just to make the CFP. Iowa State is a dangerous football team in the Big 12 and may have the conferences best defense. I am going to take a shot here knowing that a loss in Norman does not eliminate them from a title game appearance and a hedge opportunity. This team is ready. I was super high on MSU last year and they heavily disappointed me. But they have a ton coming back again this year. They will have to go to Ann Arbor and Columbus so I am pretty much banking on them winning atleast one of those games. With their talent it is absolutely possible. They are definitely a strong contender in the conference
​

Win totals next

​

 

[fightingirish595]

CFB RSW WIN TOTALS. EVERYTHING IS TO WIN 1 UNIT

My general strategy for win totals is to look for teams with 15+ returning starters, a returning QB, and a win total close to last years amount of wins and take the over. Even better if the win total is lower than last years total RSW. For unders, I look for about 11 returning starters or less and a new QB. I also look at the schedule. I do not just blindly bet teams that fit what I am looking for. SO this pretty much sums up my picks.

LSU Over 9 (-105)

I really wish I was getting 8.5, but LSU is loaded. Im penciling in Alabama as a loss. I really see 11-1 potential here. I think they will be really good. I am probably way to confident they are going to beat Texas. But they get Auburn, Florida, and A+M at home.
​

Alabama Over 11 (-145)

I cashed on this same bet last year. Atleast 11 RSW wins every season since 2011. That streak should continue. Ride the streak. If they win 11 you push
​

Iowa State Over 8 (-110)

I would never predict them to go 12-0. I do think every game on the schedule is winnable though. Very good football team. Won in Norman 2 years go.
​

Mich St Over 7.5 (-180) or 8 (-115)

I have not locked this yet. Talented enough to go 12-0, but could never predict that as they go to Michigan and Ohio State. But all the games are winnable on paper. Even if they lost to Michigan and OSU, they would have to lose 3 more games. Western Mich and Arizona state are not exactly pushovers, but those are home games and Mich St should expect to win its first 3 games. and be Atleast 4-1 when they go to the shoe, but these things never go as planned
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Va tech Over 8 (-145)

They will not lose to Old dominion again, and they will not lose to Rhode Island or Furman. That is 3 wins right there. Road games against Virginia, ND, and the U which are 3 solid teams. If they were to lose all 3, they would need to go 6-0 against the rest of their schedule, which looks pretty soft. (I personally feel they are better than Virginia and Miami)
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Minnesota Over 7.5 (-125)

Fleck has to go if this team does not improve and win 8 games. No power 5 OOC games. They get Penn state, Nebraksa, and Wisconsin at home(Can they nab two wins here?). They have to take care of Illinois and Rutgers on the road.
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Miss st Under 8 (-120)

They look like the 5th best team in the conference in my opinion As they lost a lot of players. They host Bama and LSU and they are not beating either of those teams. They play @auburn and @A+M, 2 more teams that feel are superior. Can the vols or Rebels take them down? I am going to take my chances.
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Wisconsin Under 8.5 (-130)

Have to play Ohio state, Michigan, and Michigan State for there cross division games. Thats Killer! Lost 4 Olinemen. Minnesota, Iowa, Northwestern, and Nebraska figure to be tough games. I really like this number.
​

West Virginia Under 5 (-115)

I would probably lay off this at 4.5 but 5 gets a push. Early schedule is absolutely brutal. Looks like a 2-5 start to me. Lost a ton, new coach. We will see
​

Bonus

FIU Over 8

App St over 9

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​

 

[fightingirish595]

Pats over 11. Great value bet

 

[maust]

Pats over 11. Great value bet

Except I'm seeing it at -150

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Except I'm seeing it at -150

I got 135 but I def see ur point. Not how I'd describe value but to each their own.

 

[fightingirish595]

Except I'm seeing it at -150

I got 135 but I def see ur point. Not how I'd describe value but to each their own.

It’s value when 11 gets you a push in my opinion. Would you rather have 11.5 with less juice? I wouldn’t. They haven’t won less than 11 since 2009. Ride the streak.

 

[maust]

I got 135 but I def see ur point. Not how I'd describe value but to each their own.

My idea of it is -120 or less
We don't all live/wager in the same neck of the woods so I am always curious when I see numbers that differ to a measurable degree from what I am getting.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

My idea of it is -120 or less
We don't all live/wager in the same neck of teh woods so I am always curious when I see numbers that differ to measurable degree from what I am getting.

I hear ya. That's the main reason I use different shops

 

[maust]

It’s value when 11 gets you a push in my opinion. Would you rather have 11.5 with less juice? I wouldn’t. They haven’t won less than 11 since 2009. Ride the streak.

I wasn't being critical of your idea of value but of the -150 I am seeing it at. Since you didn't include what you got it at I have no idea whether I'd consider it a good value. In the past we've agreed more often than not so most likely I would.

 

[fightingirish595]

I wasn't being critical of your idea of value but of the -150 I am seeing it at. Since you didn't include what you got it at I have no idea whether I'd consider it a good value. In the past we've agreed more often than not so most likely I would.

I have -130. But honestly I still love it at -150. I actually still think that’s good value. And Trust me I’m not one to chase -150s

 

[maust]

I have -130. But honestly I still love it at -150. I actually still think that’s good value. And Trust me I’m not one to chase -150s

I'd be on -130 like white on rice and would take a decent size bite at -135 but I am not seeing it. If you think about it, the additional -20 is fairly limiting when you are considering a big bite. I set a limit on what I will risk in a given season going in so the juice can be a deal breaker when it's high before I start building the kitty. If it doesn't drop to draw more action then I will probably pull from the poker fund to make my run at it.

 

[fightingirish595]

I'd be on -130 like white on rice and would take a decent size bite at -135 but I am not seeing it. If you think about it, the additional -20 is fairly limiting when you are considering a big bite. I set a limit on what I will risk in a given season going in so the juice can be a deal breaker when it's high before I start building the kitty. If it doesn't drop to draw more action then I will probably pull from the poker fund to make my run at it.

How big is a big bite?

 

[maust]

How big is a big bite?

More than half my football bank which sits at $3k heading in.