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Big advantage to the second team. They would know if they have to go for all 4th downs - giving them an extra play. This way there is an advantage to going first (win with a TD) and one to going second (get a stop, win with a FG).
What is true is the more likely the teams are to score a TD, the bigger advantage to going first. Yesterday it felt like whoever got the ball would get a TD.This is probably the best explanation for the current overtime rules. I am sure the competition committee has all the stats: odds of coin toss winner punting, FG, TD vs coin toss loser getting the ball, needing FG or TD, but pretty much has 4 downs every time to move the chains.
What would be more interesting is if in overtime you are not allowed to punt the ball. In that case, the team with the better defense may actually elect to defer and possibly get the ball back at very favorable field position if they hold the offense to 4 and out.
What is true is the more likely the teams are to score a TD, the bigger advantage to going first. Yesterday it felt like whoever got the ball would get a TD.
The opposite is also true - the less likely to score a TD, the advantage to going second increases. In a defensive game, might choose to kick offBut, again, there were two OTs yesterday, and the receiving teams went 1-1.
The opposite is also true - the less likely to score a TD, the advantage to going second increases. In a defensive game, might choose to kick off
Brian Hoyer at QB?Absolutely. But there would have to be a really stacked deck to make me defer in OT.
I have always wanted the rule change, but didn't think about it much and didn't consider how big that 4-down advantage would be for the kicking team.Big advantage to the second team. They would know if they have to go for all 4th downs - giving them an extra play. This way there is an advantage to going first (win with a TD) and one to going second (get a stop, win with a FG).