Statistics like these so have a way of smoothing out things that are obviously apparent, so if this is what 3-4 more points a game is like, then yes, it’s a huge deal. I’ve seen baseball studies trying to downplay the steroid era by also using similar yearly scoring averages, but we all remember what it was really like, and yes, it made an enormous impact. You even have nerdy, overanalyzing fools today trying to argue that McGwire would have hit a similar amount of home runs without PEDs, which is insulting to our intelligence. In the case of the steroid era, it was the clusters of huge home run totals by individual players, not the necessarily the scoring itself (which also has historic parallels from other eras), that made the game so artificial and history destroying.
What makes the NFL feel like this same unsettling way is specifically the success of THE QUARTERBACK is at insane historical levels, which is by no accident the most profit generating scenario (more on that below). Scoring was at 20-21 points per game from 1980-2001 and is at 24.2 now. Just as a measure, though, of what’s changed significantly, let’s look at this one fact:
When Joe Montana retired in the mid-90s, he had the highest passer rating of all-time at 92.3. The following players have a higher passer rating this year:
Drew Brees
Patrick Mahomes
Jared Goff
Philip Rivers
Matt Ryan
Russell Wilson
Cam Newton
Aaron Rodgers
Andrew Luck
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Carson Wentz
Kirk Cousins
Deshaun Watson
Mitchell Trubisky
Ben Roethlisberger
Eli Manning
Tom Brady
Derek Carr
Matthew Stafford
So there is where the Chiefs/Rams and the idea that a few power teams are tipping the scales takes a huge hit. The game has been altered to feel like baseball in the mid-90s, and I suspect this era will eventually be viewed with similar disdain once the NFL restores balance and recreates a competitive, interesting game. In baseball, the fans lined up like goons marching in line to see the amazing historic seasons being put up, and NFL fans are following the same path. But like baseball, the sizzle will eventually become boring, and fans will ultimately abandon the sport in favor of something more interesting and consisting of less bright fluorescent lights.
This is a huge historical anomaly, and all of the major sports have gone through periods of manufactured imbalance and increased ratings/revenue, followed by major hangovers and ultimately the mandate to sober up. The NFL is just following its gluttonous downfall, and the arrogance and hubris of the Goodell era will eventually make its way into the history books as a cautionary tale of greed without regard to its long-term consequences.
