Draft Rumors

[Ring 6]

It's about 70% in the NFL but college passers tend to have longer depth of target. You have to be careful with those Air Raid offenses because the guys are often wide open and they're throwing it 5, 6 yards downfield. In the pros the short throws are into much tighter windows and you need to be able to credibly threaten at the intermediate and deep ranges. I don't know if Falk can do all that. It would have required him to play in another system to prove.

I think it’s higher than 70% but can’t look it up right now.
I also think it’s silly to say the guy spends all day throwing to wide open receivers. If that were the case everyone would run that offense and it would be unstoppable.

 

[primetime]

I think it’s higher than 70% but can’t look it up right now.
I also think it’s silly to say the guy spends all day throwing to wide open receivers. If that were the case everyone would run that offense and it would be unstoppable.

Usually it's stopped with a zone defense and heavy pressure. Falk got killed in college by a terrible offensive line. I'm a little less concerned by that than most, I suspect it was mostly bad offensive line rather than lack of mobility and I don't think these 22 year olds get shellshocked the way older guys do. But the Air Raid is designed to get receivers open. You run by passing the ball.

 

[primetime]

I wouldn't be upset by a Falk pick in the middle rounds, for what it's worth, I'm just skeptical he has starter traits, while I think someone like White does. I'm probably more skeptical of Leach quarterbacks than deserved, though. All the middle round guys are just dart throws at best anyways.

 

[Ring 6]

I wouldn't be upset by a Falk pick in the middle rounds, for what it's worth, I'm just skeptical he has starter traits, while I think someone like White does. I'm probably more skeptical of Leach quarterbacks than deserved, though. All the middle round guys are just dart throws at best anyways.

The first round guys are often dart throws too.

 

[primetime]

The first round guys are often dart throws too.

Every draft pick is a dart throw, some are just statistically more likely to work out than others. Most of this draft analysis stuff is art rather than science and the reasons these guys don't work out often has more to do with the team they end up on or something that wasn't foreseen in scouting reports. It's a fun distraction for a couple months though.

 

[TomPatriot]

I don’t even want Lamar Jackson if he is there in the 3rd.

I’m not so sure about him myself.

 

[manxman2601]

But the Air Raid is designed to get receivers open. You run by passing the ball.

Doesn’t this sound a bit like Patriots offenses of the past in the non Moss/Cooks years?

 

[The Boomer]

Mike Mayock’s mock is live now on NFL network. Has Darnold going first to Cleveland. He hasn’t been wrong with the first overall pick since 2008.

If Mayock is the predictor who best understands tiers of talent, then what the Pats will do simply depends on who is on their board when it's their turn. Apart from, the mock draft he is doing now, he ranked players according to round. Just considering QB and OT, he didn't rate a single rumored first round tackle that high. The best guys are in his second round. Likewise, Allen and Rudolph in the second round. 28 players are first rounders but 42 players are rated as second rounders. There is also lots of third and fourth round quality. If he has the right 28 rated as firsts, then there is a 100% chance that one of them will be there at 23 and almost that high a chance that another one will be there at 31 if, as you would expect, at least 3 players outside Mayock's 28 will be picked before 31. 2 already went in his top 10 in his live mock draft, Allen and McGlinchey. If whoever is there at 31 isn't a system fit or there are a half dozen or more first round rated players still on their board, then trading down makes lots of sense. If at 23, there are perhaps 10 first round rated players still on the draft board, the Pats might trade back from there too. This opinion by Mayock less than 3 weeks ago won't match who he slots into his first round mock draft:

2017 NFL draft big board: Complete overall rankings

If he they can add another second round pick and one in the early third round trading back, it's possible that they could draft 5 or 6 of Mayock's top 70.

 

[manxman2601]

Mayock has Rosen going 15 to the Cards and Jackson going 16 to the Ravens if you want a feel for where we might need to trade up to.

 

[primetime]

Doesn’t this sound a bit like Patriots offenses of the past in the non Moss/Cooks years?

The Patriots don't really utilize Air Raid concepts though. The onus in the Air Raid is really on the receivers to get open, there isn't a lot of scheming guys open and timing patterns. They don't run four verts. Garoppolo made a similar transition well and Mariota has been pretty successful coming from a no-huddle college offense but it's tough, it's why guys from pro-style offenses have a premium value. They're easier to project. You're right that it helps that Falk would be able to sit for a while though.

 

[The Boomer]

If Mayock is the predictor who best understands tiers of talent, then what the Pats will do simply depends on who is on their board when it's their turn. Apart from, the mock draft he is doing now, he ranked players according to round. Just considering QB and OT, he didn't rate a single rumored first round tackle that high. The best guys are in his second round. Likewise, Allen and Rudolph in the second round. 28 players are first rounders but 42 players are rated as second rounders. There is also lots of third and fourth round quality. If he has the right 28 rated as firsts, then there is a 100% chance that one of them will be there at 23 and almost that high a chance that another one will be there at 31 if, as you would expect, at least 3 players outside Mayock's 28 will be picked before 31. 2 already went in his top 10 in his live mock draft, Allen and McGlinchey. If whoever is there at 31 isn't a system fit or there are a half dozen or more first round rated players still on their board, then trading down makes lots of sense. If at 23, there are perhaps 10 first round rated players still on the draft board, the Pats might trade back from there too. This opinion by Mayock less than 3 weeks ago won't match who he slots into his first round mock draft:

2017 NFL draft big board: Complete overall rankings

If he they can add another second round pick and one in the early third round trading back, it's possible that they could draft 5 or 6 of Mayock's top 70.

 

[TomPatriot]

Usually it's stopped with a zone defense and heavy pressure. Falk got killed in college by a terrible offensive line. I'm a little less concerned by that than most, I suspect it was mostly bad offensive line rather than lack of mobility and I don't think these 22 year olds get shellshocked the way older guys do. But the Air Raid is designed to get receivers open. You run by passing the ball.

Watch tape on him. He didn’t care that he got hit. Then he got up and didn’t care the next time he got hit. He stays in the pocket, slings the ball well, takes the hit. No one in the NFL threw anywhere near as many passes - and with that loser Washington State OL. Well, there was one NFL passer that was close.

 

[The Boomer]

Whoops, wrong link. Mayock's round ratings were only 2 weeks ago:

2018 NFL draft final big board

 

[manxman2601]

The Patriots don't really utilize Air Raid concepts though. The onus in the Air Raid is really on the receivers to get open, there isn't a lot of scheming guys open and timing patterns. They don't run four verts. Garoppolo made a similar transition well and Mariota has been pretty successful coming from a no-huddle college offense but it's tough, it's why guys from pro-style offenses have a premium value. They're easier to project. You're right that it helps that Falk would be able to sit for a while though.

That’s the point, he has at least a couple of years to sit and learn. I don’t know if he’ll be the pick or even whether he’ll ever be a starter. And let’s face it, it’s an uphill climb for any QB drafted outside the first two rounds. What I do think is that he’s a plug and play backup at minimum for the course of his rookie contract and that’s not nothing.

 

[PatriotsNumero1Fan]

Still don't believe that darnold will go first. Kiper thinks it will be Allen. We will see tomorrow.

 

[manxman2601]

Watch tape on him. He didn’t care that he got hit. Then he got up and didn’t care the next time he got hit. He stays in the pocket, slings the ball well, takes the hit. No one in the NFL threw anywhere near as many passes - and with that loser Washington State OL. Well, there was one NFL passer that was close.

And that was with a broken wrist which speaks to his toughness.

 

[Patriot Missile]

Looks like Rueben Foster's girlfriend has retracted all allegations against him. "Claims" it was all done in a "fight" with another woman. Must of been some fight.

Looks like the 49ers need of a lb has subsided which may drop another talented lb to the Pats.

 

[primetime]

I'm also really high on Mahomes so I do like one Air Raid quarterback, but Mahomes can also make throws that would make Aaron Rodgers blush.

 

[Ring 6]

Every draft pick is a dart throw, some are just statistically more likely to work out than others. Most of this draft analysis stuff is art rather than science and the reasons these guys don't work out often has more to do with the team they end up on or something that wasn't foreseen in scouting reports. It's a fun distraction for a couple months though.

I have always believed that about 90% of the success of a player depends upon what happens after he is drafted rather than what he is on the day he is drafted.
Coaching (especially considering the teaching of technique to guys who could get by til now on raw ability)
Learning how to play their position
Film study
Physical improvement in strength, conditioning, agility etc.
Commitment to reaching potential.
Nutrition
Off the field issues
Injuries
Confidence or lack thereof based upon his they play
And the list could go on, are what separates players more than their raw skills.
That’s one reason professionals who have coached and watched nfl players for 30 can view every play they made in college, work them out in person, talk with them at length and have a well thought out comprehensive opinion of what kind of player they will be and turn out to be wrong often.

 

[PatsFan2]

I am warming up to Mike White and Luke Falk. White as gun with some issues Falk is a dink and dunk type with issues sounds familiar?? I think if you put White and Falk together you get a competent QB. If I were BB and the brass I would draft both and see how they shake out. I have serious concerns about Kyle Lauletta's noodle arm... That won't cut it in Today's NFL. That saud Lauletta would be good value on day 3 not sooner.