Patriots / Brady Discussion

[maineman209]

Mitchell and Dorsett are..not even night and day..is there something further away from night than day?

Roughly 77% of Mitchell's 2016 production occurred over a six-week period beginning in week-10, after Gronk was injured.

Mitchell's production through week-9:
- 7 catches/15 tgts (47%), 95 yds (13.6 YPC) ... avg'd 36% of O-snaps

Mitchell's production from week-10 on:
- 25 catches/33 tgts (76%), 306 yds (12.2 YPC) ... avg'd 77% of O-snaps

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Coincidentally, Dorsett's 2017 season exhibits an anaogous divide, since his usage changed after Hogan was injured in week-8 (week-9 was the BYE).

Dorsett's production through week-9:
- 4 catches/ 8 tgts (50%), 85 yds (21.3 YPC) ... avg'd 19% of O-snaps

Dorsett' production from week-10 on:
- 8 catches/10 tgts (80%), 109 yds (13.6 YPC) ... avg'd 54% of O-snaps

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There are significant context differences, of course, the most obvious of which is the presence in 2016 of Edelman - who - along with Bennett, White and Amendola - kept the high-percentage, middle-distance (10-15 yards) portion of the passing attack as the primary focus. The loss of Gronk removed one of two deep threats (the other being Hogan in 2016). Mitchell, then, fit well in the middle-distance group and also compensated for the additional loss of Amendola to injury (ankle) during the final four weeks of the regular season.

In 2017, without Edelman, Mitchell and Bennett (or an adequate replacement for Bennett's receiving), the passing attack focus has shifted significantly (out of necessity) and has emphasized the short-range (<10 yds) and the relatively deep range (15 yds +), while drastically de-emphasizing the middle distance routes (10-15 yds).

The RBs (including White, who was part of the mid-range group in 2016) have dramatically increased the short-range tgt numbers, while Gronk and Cooks have similarly increased the deep-range tgts. This has left only Amendola and Hogan (whose role, like White's, has also changed) to account for the middle-distance. Dorsett, like Cooks, has relatively little experience with middle-distance routes, so he has been more or less a redundancy in the low-percentage, deep-range part of this season's attack.

The return of Hogan, Mitchell and White could significantly alter the passing attack for the post-season by allowing at least a partial restoration of the mid-range portion.

 

[TommyD4207]

Bye week idle sport: if you could have ONE of those players back at 100%, who would you pick?

Branch.

 

[Kontradiction]

I'm looking forward to Mitchell and Hogan both coming back so people around here can shut the hell up about Brady. Mitchell alone provides a very big red zone target based on his ability to get open quicker than expected out of his breaks and big hands. He'll immediately improve matters there and will help to take some of the attention off of Gronk in that red area. Hogan was assuming many of the routes that Edelman ran on top of the routes in his particular route tree from 2016. He'll obviously be a welcome addition against teams in the postseason that feature better pass rushes when Brady will need to get rid of the ball quickly. Given this news, I'd expect both back for the divisional round.

It's incredible to think that Brady essentially lost his WR1, WR2, and WR3 from last season and still passed for 4,577 yards, 32 TDs, and 8 INTs. CLIFF!

 

[Family]

I'm surprised no one mentioned Burkhead as best addition back. He was slowly becoming the Edelman go to over the middle 3rd down option.

I understand choosing a defensive player over him, but Branch? He's been a disappointment all season and wasn't receiving a ton of snaps.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I'm surprised no one mentioned Burkhead as best addition back. He was slowly becoming the Edelman go to over the middle 3rd down option.

I understand choosing a defensive player over him, but Branch? He's been a disappointment all season and wasn't receiving a ton of snaps.

Well I think Rex is lost in the shuffle a bit b/c you have DLew shredding defenses. That doesn't mean he is less important- especially at the goal line.

As @KontradictioN said above if Mitchell and Hogan can play to 2016 and pre November 2017 form respectfully, this offense is now at a whole different level.

 

[Uptown]

Congrats Slate.

I'm surprised no one mentioned Burkhead as best addition back. He was slowly becoming the Edelman go to over the middle 3rd down option.

I understand choosing a defensive player over him, but Branch? He's been a disappointment all season and wasn't receiving a ton of snaps.

Who’s Burkhead??? You mean Da Burkmeister?!?

 

[AtomicDawg]

Up. Bright and early.

 

[PatsFan2]

Good news on Hogan. We need him, Burkhead and White back. Replenish our passing game with guys Brady actually trusts. Mitchell would be a nice bonus return. We're gonna need those guys to quickly shake off the rust in game though.


Eh the passing game needs another trusted weapon for Brady. It definitely hasn't looked sharp on a consistent basis recently.

They need Hogan back most of all. The one area that has struggled most recently is the passing game. Very inconsistent.

Hogan is a legit #2 receiver. Hopefully Brady is healed up and gets several of these trusted weapons back. It will make a world of difference. A consistent passing attack combined with Dion's excellent running would be massive.

Exactly #2 WR spot struggled after Hogan went down. Imagine our Third Down Single Back Offense with Cooks - Amendola - Gronk -Hogan and one of our RB's. Thats actually unstoppable. Brady will be playing Catch with Defenses.

 

[Uptown]

Matt Chatham on Twitter

“To repeat, #Patriots don’t have front 7 issues as they enter #NFLPlayoffs, shows why stats from earlier season configurations aren’t worth much. This is a strong, talented group ya can absolutely win with...Harris, Lee, Branch, Wise as solid rotators if they so choose (continued)...

(cont) I’m curious to see if they opt for more of these 3-4 looks in regular w/ addition of Harrison & the relative improved health of Van Noy. Takes E Roberts out of a sideline-2-sideline, read & react 4-3 MLB role, back to a role that really suits him, playside hammer, KVN as the WILL.

 

[drewskie]

Exactly #2 WR spot struggled after Hogan went down. Imagine our Third Down Single Back Offense with Cooks - Amendola - Gronk -Hogan and one of our RB's. Thats actually unstoppable. Brady will be playing Catch with Defenses.

Or we can have a two RB set of Lewis/Burkhead w/ Gronk, Cooks and any of Hogan/Amendola/Mitchell, not including Dorsett/Britt.

 

[turkeyneck]

I hope everyone received a reading from Adalius and the Terrible Snow Storm yesterday and all are with the program today.

Edit: Nor'Easter? No Excuse For Being Late For Practice

I guess they did!

 

[PatsFan2]

I'm looking forward to Mitchell and Hogan both coming back so people around here can shut the hell up about Brady. Mitchell alone provides a very big red zone target based on his ability to get open quicker than expected out of his breaks and big hands. He'll immediately improve matters there and will help to take some of the attention off of Gronk in that red area. Hogan was assuming many of the routes that Edelman ran on top of the routes in his particular route tree from 2016. He'll obviously be a welcome addition against teams in the postseason that feature better pass rushes when Brady will need to get rid of the ball quickly. Given this news, I'd expect both back for the divisional round.

It's incredible to think that Brady essentially lost his WR1, WR2, and WR3 from last season and still passed for 4,577 yards, 32 TDs, and 8 INTs. CLIFF!

IF everything shakes out this will be the healthiest Patriots Offense in quite some time. This Offense could make a Player like Cooks even more dangerous...Defense have too much to worry about. Same goes for Hogan...having Mitchell in our back pockets is icing on the cake.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Matt Chatham on Twitter

“To repeat, #Patriots don’t have front 7 issues as they enter #NFLPlayoffs, shows why stats from earlier season configurations aren’t worth much. This is a strong, talented group ya can absolutely win with...Harris, Lee, Branch, Wise as solid rotators if they so choose (continued)...

(cont) I’m curious to see if they opt for more of these 3-4 looks in regular w/ addition of Harrison & the relative improved health of Van Noy. Takes E Roberts out of a sideline-2-sideline, read & react 4-3 MLB role, back to a role that really suits him, playside hammer, KVN as the WILL.

I love Chatham. Hes spot on 99.9% of the time.

 

[Family]

Well I think Rex is lost in the shuffle a bit b/c you have DLew shredding defenses. That doesn't mean he is less important- especially at the goal line.

As @KontradictioN said above if Mitchell and Hogan can play to 2016 and pre November 2017 form respectfully, this offense is now at a whole different level.

This offense has had a weakness with third down conversions that might be helped with Hogan and Mitchell, but I thought the Burkhead/White combo was developing into the Edelman third down replacement team. Without them the offense will not be at a different level IMO.

Lewis is fantastic, but they haven't used him for this purpose and with all his duties, that might be too much.

 

[RobertWeathers]

This offense has had a weakness with third down conversions that might be helped with Hogan and Mitchell, but I thought the Burkhead/White combo was developing into the Edelman third down replacement team. Without them the offense will not be at a different level IMO.

Lewis is fantastic, but they haven't used him for this purpose and with all his duties, that might be too much.

Ian posted something which showed the 3rd down offense very good with Hogan.

 

[RIpats88]

the fact that Hogan won practice player of the week leads me to believe he is pretty much healthy and pats are/were being cautious

the addition of Hogan/Mitchell/Burkhead/White is HUGE on the offensive end. clearly dorsett wasnt up to be #2 and Amendola was much better equipped to get open vs. the 3rd corner than #2

 

[Doctor DDS]

Assuming they activate Mitchell next week I am interested in what they do with the roster. Do they cut Dorsett or Britt or will it be someone else that was not factoring in the gameplan? (forget if Grissom is currently on roster or PS) Do not hold out much hope for Britt having any impact this year and assume he'll be inactive even if not cut but cutting him likely removes him from any plans for next season.

 

[AtomicDawg]

They got the memo.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Assuming they activate Mitchell next week I am interested in what they do with the roster. Do they cut Dorsett or Britt or will it be someone else that was not factoring in the gameplan? (forget if Grissom is currently on roster or PS) Do not hold out much hope for Britt having any impact this year and assume he'll be inactive even if not cut but cutting him likely removes him from any plans for next season.

As much as I think Britt can help this team, if Hogs, MM and Rex are the intermediate threats I don't see how he gets on the field.

 

[AtomicDawg]

This might be a special season. Guys getting healthy at the right time.