Thoughts on Mike Gillislee so far?

[Dagg]

My problem is the lack of commitment to the run and lack of creativity in the run scheme in general. I see all sorts of neat designs from other teams in the run game and for us..well the same 6 plays we have been trotting out there for last 5 years.

The main difference I see is that Blount was a 1yd, 2yd, 16 yd, 1yd and then he was average in 4yds a pop. But it put us in 2nd and long 3 times.

With Gilislee the result is more 4,2,7,5 which sets us up better for 2nd and 3rd down

 

[luuked]

Eye tests tend to reveal underlying biases.

Bingo.

 

[maineman209]

Has anyone done the analysis to see if the Pats are passing on a significant # of situations with G in the backfield?

I just happened to look this up the other day.

So far, the Pats have been passing about 40% of the time that Gillislee is on the field. It was about 42% of the time that Blount was on the field in 2016.

 

[mgteich]

Showing that a small sample is disproportionately affected by a single run is not cherry picking.

Agreed
Compare
1,1,-1, -2,1,40,0, 0,-1, 1 with
3,4,5,3,4,5,3,4,5,4

Both are 10 carries for 40 yards.

Who would you like as your short yardage runner? One is perfect. The other useless except for the one long run.

 

[maineman209]

Blount had a 43 yard TD run against the Rams on 4th down. Take that away and he was 5/11 on 4th, or 2 ypc.

I don't know, Blount broke bigger runs than Gillislee but Gillislee has been thiiis close several times.

When analyzing a team's rushing performance in any specific game, I always subtract that one big breakaway carry (as well as any QB kneel-downs at the end of the half) from the total and take that as a more indicative ypa.

I actually started doing this after the WC loss to BAL back in 2009. A lot of fans were saying that the Pats' run-D sucked that game, "they gave up 234 yards on the ground!!" That didn't pass the "eye test" for me, so I checked the stats.

The fact is that, at the start of that game the Pats D gave up one run for 83 yards (or, rather, the Big Bang Clock did by not playing his edge-contain assignment). The rest of the way, they gave up 151 yards on 51 carries, 2.96 ypa. And Flacco's stat line was 4/10 for 34 yards. Yep, the Ratbirds ran the ball on 84% of their plays - BECAUSE, they had gotten a huge early lead by way of Meriweather's mistake and Pats' offensive turnovers. From there, they had Flacco keep it in his pants and just worked on killing the clock.

In week-4 this season, the Jets totaled 256 rushing yards on 32 carries (against the Jags ****ty run-D) for a ypa of 8.0. HOWEVER, 144 of those yards came on just two breakaway runs of about 70 yards each. Subtract those, and their ypa goes down to 3.7 - which is only slightly better than the 3.3 ypa that they put up for their other four games.

 

[maineman209]

Agreed
Compare
1,1,-1, -2,1,40,0, 0,-1, 1 with
3,4,5,3,4,5,3,4,5,4

Both are 10 carries for 40 yards.

Who would you like as your short yardage runner? One is perfect. The other useless except for the one long run.

This is an example of the "Bill Gates Walks Into The Local Tavern Effect." Medians are often much less misleading than averages.

 

[maineman209]

I'm not a stats person myself I just know a good player from a bad one but when someone starts judging a player by their stats but begins omitting stuff that's a little unfair. Right now I would trust Lewis or White to get us a first down on 4th and short over Gilly. Maybe later in the season that'll change but he's just not as elusive as Lewis or catch better than white.

By themselves, "stats" (usually meaning raw averages taken out of context) are just as meaningless as relying on the "eye test" alone, especially if that eye test is only from having watched the broadcast version of games.

 

[primetime]

In week-4 this season, the Jets totaled 256 rushing yards on 32 carries (against the Jags ****ty run-D) for a ypa of 8.0. HOWEVER, 144 of those yards came on just two breakaway runs of about 70 yards each. Subtract those, and their ypa goes down to 3.7 - which is only slightly better than the 3.3 ypa that they put up for their other four games.

Even then, one of those runs - the longest touchdown run in Jets history - was a fluke where Bilal Powell tripped and fell down after hurdling over a guy and everybody thought the play was over, but it turned out he hadn't been touched so he got back up and sprinted 75 yards to the end zone before anyone knew what was happening.



Weird **** like that happens in football and inevitably skews results (I vaguely recall a similar play in 2008 when the Patriots lost to the Jets with Jerricho Cotchery, where he rolled over somebody while being tackled and sprung up to his feet without ever being down) but it's not at all indicative of "average play" which are the arguments people try to make by appealing to "yards per carry."

 

[BTTA]

I think our coach would rather we have this conversation in the Fantasy Football thread, where it has some relevance.

 

[Uptown]

Listen:

Just because the OL is the same this year personnel wise, DOES NOT necessarily mean that they are blocking as effectively as they were last season. Remember, you have to keep things in its proper context. I loved Blount, but he simply was not as effective in the reg season OR the playoffs against tough high caliber defenses (even when we had a lead). He also benefited from defenses’ respect of TB, Gronk (when he played), Edelman, Hogan, Bennett, Mitchell etc. Yes, the 1,000+ yds, 18 TDs were great, but give Gillislee some time before you judge. You people always rush to conclusions so damn quickly without properly analyzing the entire matter. We're only 5 games into a new season.

What did Blount do in the playoffs last year???
NE vs HOU- 8 carries, 31 yards, 3 YPC
NE vs PIT- 16 carries, 47 yards 1 TD, 2.9 YPC
NE vs ATL- 11 carries, 31 yards 1 Fumble, 2 YPC

ENTIRE PLAYOFFS- 35 carries, 109 yards, 1TD,
1 GAME CHANGING Fumble, 3 YPC.

Wow, the second coming of Ezekiel Elliot!

How about we wait for the damn OL to block somebody & give Gillislee a chance before we bash him. Blount is/was expendable.

Relax!!!

 

[maineman209]

Listen:

Just because the OL is the same this year personnel wise, DOES NOT necessarily mean that they are blocking as effectively as they were last season. Remember, you have to keep things in its proper context. I loved Blount, but he simply was not as effective in the reg season OR the playoffs against tough high caliber defenses (even when we had a lead). He also benefited from defenses’ respect of TB, Gronk (when he played), Edelman, Hogan, Bennett, Mitchell etc. Yes, the 1,000+ yds, 18 TDs were great, but give Gillislee some time before you judge. You people always rush to conclusions so damn quickly without properly analyzing the entire matter. We're only 5 games into a new season.

What did Blount do in the playoffs last year???
NE vs HOU- 8 carries, 31 yards, 3 YPC
NE vs PIT- 16 carries, 47 yards 1 TD, 2.9 YPC
NE vs ATL- 11 carries, 31 yards 1 Fumble, 2 YPC

ENTIRE PLAYOFFS- 35 carries, 109 yards, 1TD,
1 GAME CHANGING Fumble, 3 YPC.

Wow, the second coming of Ezekiel Elliot!!!!

How about we wait for the damn OL to block somebody & give Gillislee a chance before we bash him. Blount is/was expendable.

Relax!!!

Agree 100% about Gillislee.

In fairness to Blount, by the time the playoffs rolled around, he'd already had 299 regular season carries - at age 30 (only Elliot had more regular-season carries, IIRC). Blount's previous high was 201 carries in his rookie season. Between those two seasons, he'd average about 134 carries per year.

He also played 33 snaps per game for the Pats in 2016. His previous high had been 25 and most seasons had played in the 18-20 range. Philly has been using him for 22-26 snaps per game.

It seems not unreasonable to think that Blount was a bit worn down by the post-season last year, so maybe his post-season performance was more "dead legs" than lack of talent.

 

[Uptown]

Agree 100% about Gillislee.

In fairness to Blount, by the time the playoffs rolled around, he'd already had 299 regular season carries - at age 30 (only Elliot had more regular-season carries, IIRC). Blount's previous high was 201 carries in his rookie season. Between those two seasons, he'd average about 134 carries per year.

He also played 33 snaps per game for the Pats in 2016. His previous high had been 25 and most seasons had played in the 18-20 range. Philly has been using him for 22-26 snaps per game.

It seems not unreasonable to think that Blount was a bit worn down by the post-season last year, so maybe his post-season performance was more "dead legs" than lack of talent.

Very plausible my friend. However, I bet if we somehow played the Colts in the playoffs last year, those same legs would’ve magically managed to churn away for about 25 carries, 160 yards, 3 TDs

 

[RayClay]

Could be the OL and Gill need to gel. He hits the hole much faster than Blount, so maybe OL timing needs to adjust. Looks OK to me, he runs hard and without hesitation.

 

[maineman209]

Could be the OL and Gill need to gel. He hits the hole much faster than Blount, so maybe OL timing needs to adjust. Looks OK to me, he runs hard and without hesitation.

I agree that his timing with the OL appears to have held him back a bit, although it seems to me that it's been steadily improving.

Another factor, might be a sort of "speed to power" thing. Blount, with his size, didn't really need speed to convert to power. Ordinary-human sized backs like Gillislee (or Burkhead or White) need to be able to do that more often than Blount would. Anyway, I thought I saw Gillislee doing a bit more of that in the Tampa game - a little more driving guys backwards, a little more maintaining forward momentum through not quite perfect tackle attempts.

If the OL and the blocking scheme are improved just a bit more for Sunday, I think we might see him break one against the Jets, although I'm pretty sure they're going to be focused on stifling the Pats ground game, at least at first, because they seem convinced that they can get to Brady on a dropbacks, although I have no idea why

 

[Oswlek]

In fairness to Blount, by the time the playoffs rolled around, he'd already had 299 regular season carries

Noted, but Blount has been ineffective against virtually every non-Indy playoff defense, so the fairness doesn't account for the entire story.

 

[kennyb]

Blount was horrible but a lot of that was the horrific ol. Horrendous. Guys were setting sb records with sacks on brady.

Gilleslie is ok. Way overpaid. Imagine if they still had bennett. Wow that would help.

 

[SammyBlueCat]

Bill Belichick: No doubt that explosive runs are coming for Mike Gillislee

 

[Patjew]

I like the guy. He seems to hit the hole hard and fast. I wish they'd feed him the rock more. I hate the screens and end arounds on 2nd and 4 after a nice first down run.

 

[stcjones]

Barry freaking sanders couldn’t run with this OL trying to open holes for him!! Seriously it all starts with the OL as we know....Gilleslie is doing fine with what he has to work with


QUOTE="Onedaful, post: 5113820, member: 30921"]I think the OL needs to be addressed before we get to the run game. I don't have much confidence that Blount would be able to get moving with this OL in any impactful manner no matter how successful he is on another team.[/QUOTE]

 

[aluminum seats]

Bill Belichick: No doubt that explosive runs are coming for Mike Gillislee

I wonder if that will keep him out of Sunday's game...