Thoughts on Mike Gillislee so far?

[Deus Irae]

All of the negative comparisons to Blount are based on rose-tinted 20/20 hindsight. People remember the short yardage touchdowns but don't remember all the times Blount got stuffed at the goal line and recall the long touchdown runs but not the many no gains. And I like Blount.

No, they're not.

 

[VOODOOZF]

Gillislee is just another guy. To this point he’s not as good as Blunt

 

[Oswlek]

In spite of missing most of Camp and bearing a significantly increased workload in a different scheme since the start of the regular season, Gillislee's YPA has steadily improved.

Anyway, if fans are disappointed in Gillislee, it's probably because they were expecting him to be a 1:1 Blount replacement. He was never going to be that.

From 2 pages ago:



Gillislee's game against the Jets improved that success rate. He's actually having an extremely good season on a per-carry basis.

All of the negative comparisons to Blount are based on rose-tinted 20/20 hindsight. People remember the short yardage touchdowns but don't remember all the times Blount got stuffed at the goal line and recall the long touchdown runs but not the many no gains. And I like Blount.

FYI, I would have put this thread on ignore a long time ago if it weren't for your contributions.

 

[mgteich]

I agree that Gillislie should be expected to be a Blount replacement. Belichick has decided to go a different way with the running game this year. He paid a lot for Burkhead, but he's out. So, we're looking at a Plan B running game. It's looked OK. When Burkhead is back, we will see some new wrinkles. But there is no question that Gillislie wasn't brought in the be the #1 running back.

Just BTW, the percentage of passing this year compared to last is very misleading. Compare the first 4 games instead of 6, and analyze, and you'll realize why.

(c) the Pats passing more often this year than last so far (60% versus 53%).

Anyway, if fans are disappointed in Gillislee, it's probably because they were expecting him to be a 1:1 Blount replacement. He was never going to be that.

 

[TommyD4207]

So I'm most-often considered a homer. I don't think anyone has ever called me a hater or negative.

I think the bar isn't All-Pro, it's Blount.

Right now I think we're getting less from Gillislee than we would be getting from Blount, so unless things change this is going to be a swing and miss from BB for me. I'll allow him a few more before I start calling for his head.

At this point our best runner is Dion and it's not even close.

To be fair, Dion was our best RB even when Blount was here.

 

[maineman209]

I agree that Gillislie should be expected to be a Blount replacement. Belichick has decided to go a different way with the running game this year. He paid a lot for Burkhead, but he's out. So, we're looking at a Plan B running game. It's looked OK. When Burkhead is back, we will see some new wrinkles. But there is no question that Gillislie wasn't brought in the be the #1 running back.

Just BTW, the percentage of passing this year compared to last is very misleading. Compare the first 4 games instead of 6, and analyze, and you'll realize why.

Ah! I see what you're saying.

Yes. I was comparing the first six games of this season to the entire 2016 season, including the first four "Brady-less" games when the Pats were running more than passing (130 to 114).

So, using only the 12 games in which Brady played, the correct comparison is 60% passing this year versus 56% last year, instead of 53%. Still a fairly significant increase that's due to a number of probably transient factors.

Interestingly, from 2009-2014, the Pats' pass percentage was also 56% - a bit below the recent league average of 58% (I left out 2015's 62% passing as an outlier due to RB injuries).

 

[maineman209]

Gillislee is just another guy. To this point he’s not as good as Blunt

The Pats ground game has gotten by just fine with a committee of JAGs for years. Since 2009, the only years that the Pats didn't end the season in the Top-6 for rushing TDs were the two seasons that Scar was NOT coaching the OL.

 

[TomPatriot]

No one in the Pats backfield has reached his peak yet, including MG.

 

[fnordcircle]

From 2 pages ago:



Gillislee's game against the Jets improved that success rate. He's actually having an extremely good season on a per-carry basis.

All of the negative comparisons to Blount are based on rose-tinted 20/20 hindsight. People remember the short yardage touchdowns but don't remember all the times Blount got stuffed at the goal line and recall the long touchdown runs but not the many no gains. And I like Blount.

Yeah but I didn't bother citing Blount's performance last year because I remember it was an up and down affair, so I'm not sure why you're posting that like I should have read the thread.

I do think Blount would have broken some of the runs I've seen Gillislee get caught on. I don't hate Gillislee but I'm beginning to think that his ceiling is Antowain Smith and I hate him in the short yardage game. He's fine on 1st and 2nd down because he'll make the cut and go where the play is supposed to go, but that doesn't make me thrilled with the signing, yet. I hope he proves me wrong.

 

[patsinthesnow]

Healthy Dion Lewis is going to render Blount v. Gillislee a negligible discussion.

 

[mgteich]

Our passing percentage will go down in games where WE are the ones that start out well.

Ah! I see what you're saying.

Yes. I was comparing the first six games of this season to the entire 2016 season, including the first four "Brady-less" games when the Pats were running more than passing (130 to 114).

So, using only the 12 games in which Brady played, the correct comparison is 60% passing this year versus 56% last year, instead of 53%. Still a fairly significant increase that's due to a number of probably transient factors.

Interestingly, from 2009-2014, the Pats' pass percentage was also 56% - a bit below the recent league average of 58% (I left out 2015's 62% passing as an outlier due to RB injuries).

 

[mgteich]

Healthy Dion Lewis is going to render Blount v. Gillislee a negligible discussion.

You act as if we have only role for a RB.

So, if we we're 3rd and 1 or 2, how often would Lewis make the yards, compared to Gillislie or Blount? How about near the goal line?

When the season started, it seemed that Gillislie was the short yardage back. And then Burkhead went down.

 

[patsinthesnow]

You act as if we have only role for a RB.

So, if we we're 3rd and 1 or 2, how often would Lewis make the yards, compared to Gillislie or Blount? How about near the goal line?

When the season started, it seemed that Gillislie was the short yardage back. And then Burkhead went down.

Lewis is a better short yardage/goalline RB than Gillislee & Blount. He was in 2015 before his injury. So yeah on 3rd and 1 I want Lewis with the ball.

The guy is special. Obviously managing his snaps will be crucial. Can’t really think of a situation I’d rather Gillislee on the field besides spelling him.

 

[Angelpats]

Lewis is a better short yardage/goalline RB than Gillislee & Blount. He was in 2015 before his injury. So yeah on 3rd and 1 I want Lewis with the ball.

The guy is special. Obviously managing his snaps will be crucial. Can’t really think of a situation I’d rather Gillislee on the field besides spelling him.

Lewis is the better Rb. The only reason I don't mind Gilly on the rb committee is Lewis' injury history. If playing Gilly means we have Lewis during our second half and playoff run then that's ok I guess.

 

[maineman209]

Our passing percentage will go down in games where WE are the ones that start out well.

True.

It seems that the Pats need to rediscover Tom Landry's secret for winning football games: "Get a big lead and keep it."

It would be nice if they did so this Sunday.

 

[maineman209]

Lewis is a better short yardage/goalline RB than Gillislee & Blount.

Lewis is the better Rb.

I can't agree with this type of blanket, generalized comparison.

Gillislee and Lewis have different running skills and abilities, different ways of getting yardage on the ground. One skill set may be more optimal than the other depending on the game situation and on the opposing defense - their strengths/weaknesses, their scheme, their tendencies - and on how the Pats offense is setting them up to be exploited.

OTOH, the argument that Lewis is always a threat to catch a pass out of the backfield (whereas Gillislee is not) is a fairly valid one.

Over the course of Gillislee's 29 NFL game appearances, he's seen a total of 18 targets and caught 15 of them for 79 yards (5.3 ypc, longest of 18). In just the 13 games since he came back last season, Lewis has caught 24 of 31 targets for 136 yards (5.7 ypc, longest of 16). However, none of this means that Gillislee CAN'T catch passes out of the backfield. It just means that we don't expect him to. Perhaps certain opposing defenders don't expect him to, either. Advantage: Patriots.

Anyway, to say with certainty that one is "better" than the other is just too apples-and-oranges for me.

BTW -

Lewis has had four rushing TDs in his time with the Pats:

2015:
... from 6 yards out on 2nd & 3, Q1 v. BUF (week-2)
... from 8 yards out on 2nd & 8, Q1 v. JAX (week-3)

2017:
... from 8 yards out on 1st & 8, Q4 v. CAR
... from 1 yard on 1st & 1, Q2 v. NYJ last Sunday.

Gillislee's four TD runs for the Pats have been 2yds, 2yds, 1 yd, 2yds (also all on 1st or 2nd down). Six of his 8 scores for BUF in 2016 came from 3yds out or less (plus another from 5 yds).

In 2016, Blount scored 11 of his 18 TDs from the 1-yard-line, plus one from the 3, plus another from the 1 against PIT in the playoffs.

 

[Angelpats]

I can't agree with this type of blanket, generalized comparison.

Gillislee and Lewis have different running skills and abilities, different ways of getting yardage on the ground. One skill set may be more optimal than the other depending on the game situation and on the opposing defense - their strengths/weaknesses, their scheme, their tendencies - and on how the Pats offense is setting them up to be exploited.

OTOH, the argument that Lewis is always a threat to catch a pass out of the backfield (whereas Gillislee is not) is a fairly valid one.

Over the course of Gillislee's 29 NFL game appearances, he's seen a total of 18 targets and caught 15 of them for 79 yards (5.3 ypc, longest of 18). In just the 13 games since he came back last season, Lewis has caught 24 of 31 targets for 136 yards (5.7 ypc, longest of 16). However, none of this means that Gillislee CAN'T catch passes out of the backfield. It just means that we don't expect him to. Perhaps certain opposing defenders don't expect him to, either. Advantage: Patriots.

Anyway, to say with certainty that one is "better" than the other is just too apples-and-oranges for me.

BTW -

Lewis has had four rushing TDs in his time with the Pats:

2015:
... from 6 yards out on 2nd & 3, Q1 v. BUF (week-2)
... from 8 yards out on 2nd & 8, Q1 v. JAX (week-3)

2017:
... from 8 yards out on 1st & 8, Q4 v. CAR
... from 1 yard on 1st & 1, Q2 v. NYJ last Sunday.

Gillislee's four TD runs for the Pats have been 2yds, 2yds, 1 yd, 2yds (also all on 1st or 2nd down). Six of his 8 scores for BUF in 2016 came from 3yds out or less (plus another from 5 yds).

In 2016, Blount scored 11 of his 18 TDs from the 1-yard-line, plus one from the 3, plus another from the 1 against PIT in the playoffs.

We just have different opinions on what a good Rb is. Gilly's style requires the online to open holes for him, whereas Lewis can also make defenders miss as well as run behind the line. The last stats I remember had Lewis breaking as many tackles as Gilly but doing so with 50 fewer carries. Any good Rb can run through open holes but it takes a special one to break tackles and make plays. If we wanted a receiving back we have White and as you stated Lewis is also better at it too. I'm not hating on Gilly, he is a good Rb and fine that he's on the team but he's just not better than Lewis in my opinion.

 

[maineman209]

We just have different opinions on what a good Rb is. Gilly's style requires the online to open holes for him, whereas Lewis can also make defenders miss as well as run behind the line. The last stats I remember had Lewis breaking as many tackles as Gilly but doing so with 50 fewer carries. Any good Rb can run through open holes but it takes a special one to break tackles and make plays. If we wanted a receiving back we have White and as you stated Lewis is also better at it too. I'm not hating on Gilly, he is a good Rb and fine that he's on the team but he's just not better than Lewis in my opinion.

Aside from perhaps a handful of elite power backs in their prime, every RB needs some kind of hole to get started through the line.

Lewis has more of the quickness and agility required to bounce off a "wall" and get to the edge than Gillislee. He also slips/avoids solid tackles more easily than Gillislee, although neither of them has consistently shown the ability to run over or through ("break") solid tackle attempts like BGE or Blount could (though, again, neither of them were exactly at "Beast Mode" level in that regard). OTOH, Gillislee has begun to show a bit of that over the past couple of games.

I didn't state that Lewis is "better" at being a receiving back, just that he's represented more of a threat to catch a pass out of the backfield. That's at least partly a function of the way he's been used, historically, especially in 2015 before his injury.

And, no, we don't "just have different opinions on what a good Rb is."

What I disagree with is the concept of an absolute "better" when comparing players with different roles and skill sets.

You're welcome to your way of analyzing things that leads you to your opinion that Lewis is "better" than Gillislee.

But, just to be perfectly clear, my opinion is that neither is "better" than the other in any absolute sense. To me, that's like saying that a sports car is absolutely "better" than a pickup truck.

 

[sieglo]

Eyeball test says Gillislee is doing just fine. Looks great out there, often making something out of nothing.

 

[Kontradiction]

Healthy Dion Lewis is going to render Blount v. Gillislee a negligible discussion.

The problem is that history has shown he's not going to stay healthy for long if he continues to get used as the featured back.