PatsFans.com Menu
PatsFans.com - The Hub For New England Patriots Fans

Thoughts on Mike Gillislee so far?


Status
Not open for further replies.
IMO, Gillislee (he needs a nickname asap) has been hindered by the game plan of our games and by the quality of our Oline.

When he could, he showed some really good burst. He seems a lot quicker than Blount.

How about "Gillie The Kid"
 
I am happy with the way Gillislee is playing on the whole. Yes the 3.6YPA is concerning but a lot of that is due to stuffs trying to get 1 yard in obvious running situations. That is on the OL. Not him. When not in an obvious running situation he has done well in my opinion. I don't have the numbers in front of me but I would guess when not trying to get a hard yard it feels like he is averaging something like 4.5 a carry.

It seems clear the solution is to pass on 3rd and short or QB on them spread out. Then just don't run against a brick wall at the goalline.

Besides that the running game has been good in part due to Gillislee.
 
Might I add that LeGarrette Blount is averaging 5.8 yards a carry....
 
Has anyone done the analysis to see if the Pats are passing on a significant # of situations with G in the backfield? My take is that with my man LG they just about ran the vast majority of times he lined up as there were issues claimed about his pass blocking and he was no threat as a receiver. Supposedly the New Kids On The Block @ RB were gonna give us more play call unpredictability out of a RB set. I agree with Deus' take. Let's see what happens with play selection with Burk in the lineup.
 
I miss Blount. Not impressed by Gillislee. 1100+ yards and 18 TDs, tough to replace that.
 
Gillislee is the best pure runner we have had in years stuck behind a finesse line and unimaginative run game. Our run game compared to everyone else's looks far too direct and has been that way for years. We need to do something to delay linebackers even a little such as handing off to Gilly while faking a reverse etc. Or pull our guards more. I really want us to steal that running play that the Broncos beat us with in 2015. I've seen KC use it as well and it is just a great design.

I will admit that our direct run game does seem to play in our favor when we play action. Teams seem to always bite even when we aren't having success running the ball.
 
Interesting stat I heard on the Ringer podcast: the three RBs who are running against the highest percentage of stacked boxes are Chris Ivory, Leonard Fournette (both Jags, everyone knows Bortles isn't throwing) and Gillislee. I think it's safe to say that part of that is due to his relatively limited usage and part is due to the fact that he's in on short yardage downs where the box was always going to be stacked anyway, but it's still not a statistic that you want to see because it suggests that you're operating in predictable ways.

I think Gillislee has been fine so far--he's a serviceable RB for what he does--and that if we can pass a little more with him on the field that might open up some things for him. Maybe the staff isn't comfortable with him as a blocker or receiver yet, but a few more play action shots that drop in behind the linebackers might make teams a bit more reluctant to aggressively defend the run when he's on the field.
 
Interesting stat I heard on the Ringer podcast: the three RBs who are running against the highest percentage of stacked boxes are Chris Ivory, Leonard Fournette (both Jags, everyone knows Bortles isn't throwing) and Gillislee. I think it's safe to say that part of that is due to his relatively limited usage and part is due to the fact that he's in on short yardage downs where the box was always going to be stacked anyway, but it's still not a statistic that you want to see because it suggests that you're operating in predictable ways.

I think Gillislee has been fine so far--he's a serviceable RB for what he does--and that if we can pass a little more with him on the field that might open up some things for him. Maybe the staff isn't comfortable with him as a blocker or receiver yet, but a few more play action shots that drop in behind the linebackers might make teams a bit more reluctant to aggressively defend the run when he's on the field.

And this is precisely what BB wanted to avoid when he let Blount go and signed RBs whom he felt could both pass protect and be a pass catching threat. Blount was a tell we were gonna run. Disappointing to see that the situation is still bad.
 
Gillislee's splits:
1st down: 42/191 (4.5YPC)
2nd down: 23/53 (2.3YPC)
3rd down: 2/2 (1.0YPC)
4th down: 2/0 (0.0YPC)

1st&10: 36/177 (4.9YPC)
2nd&4-6: 6/18 (3.0YPC)
3rd/4th&short: 4/2 (0.5YPC)

Blount last year:
1st down: 187/718 (3.8YPC)
2nd down: 85/302 (3.6YPC)
3rd down: 20/85 (4.3YPC)
4th down: 6/54 (9.0YPC)

1st&10: 156/640 (4.1YPC)
2nd&4-6: 24/123 (5.1YPC)
3rd/4th&short: 20/107 (5.4YPC)
 
My thoughts? That it is likely Gilly has created some stuffs due to a bad read or a still developing playbook, but anyone trying to pin everything on him and/or claiming Blount is a big loss is misdiagnosing the problem.
 
I like what I've seen from Gill so far. It hasn't been perfect but he takes the handoff and runs with solid purpose and a head of steam.
The Patriots have some issues on multiple fronts they are trying to iron out. And it has put the 2017 team in comparatively weaker 'later in game' positions that, IMHO, hasn't given Gill some opportunities to get repeated handoffs, get in a rhythm, wear down the D.
 
Gillislee's splits:
1st down: 42/191 (4.5YPC)
2nd down: 23/53 (2.3YPC)
3rd down: 2/2 (1.0YPC)
4th down: 2/0 (0.0YPC)

1st&10: 36/177 (4.9YPC)
2nd&4-6: 6/18 (3.0YPC)
3rd/4th&short: 4/2 (0.5YPC)

Blount last year:
1st down: 187/718 (3.8YPC)
2nd down: 85/302 (3.6YPC)
3rd down: 20/85 (4.3YPC)
4th down: 6/54 (9.0YPC)

1st&10: 156/640 (4.1YPC)
2nd&4-6: 24/123 (5.1YPC)
3rd/4th&short: 20/107 (5.4YPC)

Blount had a 43 yard TD run against the Rams on 4th down. Take that away and he was 5/11 on 4th, or 2 ypc.

I don't know, Blount broke bigger runs than Gillislee but Gillislee has been thiiis close several times.
 
Blount had a 43 yard TD run against the Rams on 4th down. Take that away and he was 5/11 on 4th, or 2 ypc.

I don't know, Blount broke bigger runs than Gillislee but Gillislee has been thiiis close several times.

You shouldn't cherry pick stats otherwise every player can be all pros.
 
You shouldn't cherry pick stats otherwise every player can be all pros.

The problem with averages in the rushing game is that sample sizes are so small (300 carries even for bellcows) that everything is sensitive to long runs. It makes yards per carry a rather useless statistic. A few years ago I looked at measuring RBs along various metrics of success (getting a 1st down or touchdown in short yardage; gaining 4+ yards on any given run between the 20s that wasn't a 3rd and long; positive yards on any run; gaining 20+ yards on a run) and comparing the odds they would achieve success on a given run compared to the 'average' RB (the pool of all RBs on all qualifying plays between 2000 and 2013).

I should update this for 2014-2016.

gB0TWbe.png


(the blue dot to the right of Faulk on this is Woodhead's 2010 season)

qbG9ccM.png


v2KzxDy.png
 
Last edited:
Showing that a small sample is disproportionately affected by a single run is not cherry picking.

Right, and comparing full year stats to 5 games isn't fair, either. Through 5 games last year, Blount was averaging 3.67 yards per carry, just a tenth of a yard more than Gillislee is this year, and that included the 41 yard touchdown run against the Texans. Take that away and Blount was averaging just 3.31 yards per carry through the first 5 games.

And imagining that Blount was more consistent than Gillislee is wrong, too. Taking out runs that resulted in a touchdown from inside the opponent's 3 yard line, Blount gained 3 or more yards on just 52% of rushes last season, and 4 or more on just 41% of his rushes (taking out TDs from 3 or fewer yards out). Taking out Gillislee's short touchdowns against the Chiefs and Saints, he's gained 3 or more yards on 62% of his rushes this year, and 4 or more on 51%. I don't have time to calculate short yardage success rates but I'm not sure there's a discernible difference thus far.

Based on those success rates, over a full year, Gillislee would rate among some of the better running back seasons of the last decade (for example, Ray Rice in 2009 and Shaun Alexander in 2005 are comparables in this measure of success, though both broke off long runs with more consistency than Gillislee) while Blount's 2016 was Antowain Smith-esque in this category but more impressive in his rate of 10+ yard runs. In other words, Blount gained his yardage in chunks on big runs while being stuffed quite often, while Gillislee has been chugging away with consistent carries of 3-6 yards but failing to break big ones. Pick your poison, though I think Gillislee will break a few big ones because he's been real close and over the past three years he's been consistently one of the bigger home-run hitters in football on a per-carry basis. As noted, though, sustaining that over a full season is the trick.
 
Last edited:
Showing that a small sample is disproportionately affected by a single run is not cherry picking.

I'm not a stats person myself I just know a good player from a bad one but when someone starts judging a player by their stats but begins omitting stuff that's a little unfair. Right now I would trust Lewis or White to get us a first down on 4th and short over Gilly. Maybe later in the season that'll change but he's just not as elusive as Lewis or catch better than white.
 
Eye tests tend to reveal underlying biases. I doubt many people would imagine Gillislee has been 10 percentage points more likely to gain 4 or more yards than Blount was last season. I think Lewis is the most talented RB on the team, and White is a special player, but I don't think either is a player who is going to move the pile.

My favorite analytics case was Zac Stacy, the Rams running back everyone was convinced was some kind of budding superstar. However, he was glaring in how negative he was in every category of success I measured in 2013, so I was skeptical about all the amateur scouts and fantasy football types proclaiming him a reliable NFL starter, and sure enough he washed out of football very shortly thereafter.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.


TRANSCRIPT: Eliot Wolf’s Pre-Draft Press Conference 4/18/24
Thursday Patriots Notebook 4/18: News and Notes
Wednesday Patriots Notebook 4/17: News and Notes
Tuesday Patriots Notebook 4/16: News and Notes
Monday Patriots Notebook 4/15: News and Notes
Patriots News 4-14, Mock Draft 3.0, Gilmore, Law Rally For Bill 
Potential Patriot: Boston Globe’s Price Talks to Georgia WR McConkey
Friday Patriots Notebook 4/12: News and Notes
Not a First Round Pick? Hoge Doubles Down on Maye
Thursday Patriots Notebook 4/11: News and Notes
Back
Top