Dion Lewis

[maineman209]

FYI, Lewis does special-teamer. He returned a kickoff for a TD for 98 yards.

There's a huge difference between getting 8 total "ST snaps" as a returner, and getting 264 ST snaps (19 per game) making tackles in coverage against opposing returners and blocking for our own. Bolden can do the latter job. Lewis can't.

 

[50-yard-line]

v. HOU ...
Develin, 33
Lewis, 33
Blount, 27
White, 12

v. PIT ...
Blount, 30
White, 29.
Develin, 25
Lewis, 17

SUPERBOWL ...
White, 71
Blount, 17
Lewis, 12
Develin, 10

Third game, they went with White, and of course, why not? They had to abandon the run almost completely, and James White could have been the MVP.

Again, IF he's back to form, I expect Lewis to get plenty of reps and big plays this year. The guy's got more moves than Ex-lax.

 

[maineman209]

Let me be clearer. If everyone is healthy after 2 pre-season games, I believe that it would be an advantage to the team to trade Lewis or Burkhead.

Dead money against the cap by trading ...
... Lewis = $200k
... Burkhead = $1.1M (more than what Bolden will make by about $400k)

 

[supafly]

This thread is driving me nuts.

DLew is not going anywhere.

He'll still see 8-10 touches a game with a mix of run and pass.

You can't measure Lewis' production on his cumulative yards, because he isn't going to be the primary ball-carrier.

The only argument you'll hear from me is that he's probably not going to be the lead back/RB1/starting season 2015 guy (with Blount's suspension, of course) that some are suggesting.

I'd put his chances of making the team at around 75 percent, but his health and durability concerns are something to monitor, of course. Also, we don't know how much Belichick thinks of ST ace Bolden, so that factors into things, assuming everyone is healthy. I think Devlin is here to stay. Just my opinion.

 

[mgteich]

aaah

You seem to be in violation of Rule 37 of this Board's rules. Using facts to support an argument hasn't been allowed for several years.

v. HOU ...
Develin, 33
Lewis, 33
Blount, 27
White, 12

v. PIT ...
Blount, 30
White, 29.
Develin, 25
Lewis, 17

SUPERBOWL ...
White, 71
Blount, 17
Lewis, 12
Develin, 10

 

[supafly]

Third game, they went with White, and of course, why not? They had to abandon the run almost completely, and James White could have been the MVP.

Again, IF he's back to form, I expect Lewis to get plenty of reps and big plays this year. The guy's got more moves than Ex-lax.

But it wasn't just the third game. As you can see, it was the second game, as well.

So basically, all of those reps you thought you saw occurring in the postseason came in the HOU game, (one of three) which is the point.

 

[maineman209]

Third game, they went with White, and of course, why not? They had to abandon the run almost completely, and James White could have been the MVP.

Again, IF he's back to form, I expect Lewis to get plenty of reps and big plays this year. The guy's got more moves than Ex-lax.

The Patriots actually ran the ball more than the Falcons (25 to 18), and White had the same number of carries and yards as Lewis.

I'm not saying that Lewis won't live up to your expectations, but I don't think that the Pats are counting on that (yet) and have hedged their bets with Gillislee and Burkead.

 

[maineman209]

aaah

You seem to be in violation of Rule 37 of this Board's rules. Using facts to support an argument hasn't been allowed for several years.

Sorry! I wasn't aware of the rule change.

Does this mean we get to give this situation a name? Like "FactGate?"

 

[mgteich]

The Patriots actually ran the ball more than the Falcons (25 to 18), and White had the same number of carries and yards as Lewis.

I'm not saying that Lewis won't live up to your expectations, but I don't think that the Pats are counting on that (yet) and have hedged their bets with Gillislee and Burkead.

Agreed.

We will be in better shape to discuss this if Lewis is actually healthy after the 2nd pre-season game, many months from now.

 

[Ivan]

The Patriots don't need more draft picks and Lewis has special talent, they have a great backfield with him in it and it doesn't make sense to weaken it it heading into what should be great shot at a championship season. I hope Belichick keeps building and doesn't do anything, including getting rid of Lewis or Butler to weaken it.

 

[mgteich]

The Patriots don't need more draft picks and Lewis has special talent, they have a great backfield with him in it and it doesn't make sense to weaken it it heading into what should be great shot at a championship season. I hope Belichick keeps building and doesn't do anything, including getting rid of Lewis or Butler to weaken it.

You presume that the roster spot would have more value with Lewis (as our #4 RB) rather than using the position at TE, OG or on defense.

 

[50-yard-line]

The Patriots actually ran the ball more than the Falcons (25 to 18), and White had the same number of carries and yards as Lewis.

I'm not saying that Lewis won't live up to your expectations, but I don't think that the Pats are counting on that (yet) and have hedged their bets with Gillislee and Burkead.

Eh, maybe I'm overstating my expectations here. he averaged 20 plays a game in those three. That's about what I expect - some games, they'll feature him. In others, he'll be invisible. Throw in a couple of KRs and PRs, and I see no reason why a guy at that price wouldn't' be great to have around.

Which of the Pats 4 backs should we expect to be THE MAN this year? Damned if I know. I didn't expect James White to take over the SB, that's for sure.

Burkhead looks really talented. Gillislee, too...the Pats have four backs who could make any team in the league.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I don't see any problem with @Brady6 's idea that Lewis could be cut next year. I am guessing, based on how the RB position usually goes, we won't have an issue of carrying four running backs due to injuries, but it's certainly fair to say that (a) carrying four running backs with a similar style is outside the norm, and (b) based solely on the recent contracts/extensions, Lewis is likely the fourth running back right now. It would be a shame...Lewis has been one of my favorite Patriots for the last two seasons. He is a great story and a great player, but contracts and transactions tell a story.

I've been of the minority opinion that Ninkovich is on the outside looking in, and that was even before the draft. Look at his career arc and age and compare it to Mike Vrabel. Without question, Ninkovich will not be on the team in 2018; his contract was also structured for a minimal cap hit if cut this season.

And finally, I think this is Edelman's last season with the team, and his targets will also be reduced. Edelman will be 31 in a few weeks and check out his completion percentage over the last few years:

2013: 69.5%
2014: 68.1%
2015: 69.3%
2016: 62.0%

 

[RobertWeathers]

The only argument you'll hear from me is that he's probably not going to be the lead back/RB1/starting season 2015 guy (with Blount's suspension, of course) that some are suggesting.

I'd put his chances of making the team at around 75 percent, but his health and durability concerns are something to monitor, of course. Also, we don't know how much Belichick thinks of ST ace Bolden, so that factors into things, assuming everyone is healthy. I think Devlin is here to stay. Just my opinion.

He won't be the lead back. That is a lock.

Based on the 1yr 900k non-guaranteed deal BB gave Bolden that tells you what he thinks of him.

 

[maineman209]

Eh, maybe I'm overstating my expectations here. he averaged 20 plays a game in those three. That's about what I expect - some games, they'll feature him. In others, he'll be invisible. Throw in a couple of KRs and PRs, and I see no reason why a guy at that price wouldn't' be great to have around.

Which of the Pats 4 backs should we expect to be THE MAN this year? Damned if I know. I didn't expect James White to take over the SB, that's for sure.

Burkhead looks really talented. Gillislee, too...the Pats have four backs who could make any team in the league.

Well, Lewis averaged 20 offensive snaps per game in the playoffs, 13 actual touches/game, including KR.

White had way more snaps but fewer touches per game (9). The difference in touches per snap is White's use in pass-protection. White produced 54 more yards (mostly receiving) and 2 more TDs, though.

 

[maineman209]

I don't see any problem with @Brady6 's idea that Lewis could be cut next year. I am guessing, based on how the RB position usually goes, we won't have an issue of carrying four running backs due to injuries, but it's certainly fair to say that (a) carrying four running backs with a similar style is outside the norm, and (b) based solely on the recent contracts/extensions, Lewis is likely the fourth running back right now. It would be a shame...Lewis has been one of my favorite Patriots for the last two seasons. He is a great story and a great player, but contracts and transactions tell a story.

I've been of the minority opinion that Ninkovich is on the outside looking in, and that was even before the draft. Look at his career arc and age and compare it to Mike Vrabel. Without question, Ninkovich will not be on the team in 2018; his contract was also structured for a minimal cap hit if cut this season.

And finally, I think this is Edelman's last season with the team, and his targets will also be reduced. Edelman will be 31 in a few weeks and check out his completion percentage over the last few years:

2013: 69.5%
2014: 68.1%
2015: 69.3%
2016: 62.0%

Yeah, it's sad but inevitable that both Nink and Edelman are kinda winding down, performance-wise.

Interesting to note that RBs had more passing targets per game than TEs in 2016 - even when Gronk was healthy and TB was throwing (one game with 19 targets to RBs). So, maybe carrying four RBs who can catch is the new "norm"?

 

[maineman209]

Based on the 1yr 900k non-guaranteed deal BB gave Bolden that tells you what he thinks of him.

That tells you that BB thinks of Bolden as a special-teamer, not an RB.

 

[RobertWeathers]

That tells you that BB thinks of Bolden as a special-teamer, not an RB.

Not really. It represents his value to the team which includes ST and RB

 

[Ivan]

You presume that the roster spot would have more value with Lewis (as our #4 RB) rather than using the position at TE, OG or on defense.

I think Lewis is the # 1 RB against teams with really strong defensive lines and front seven's. and Burkhead and Gillislee will see more action against weaker fronts and in the second half. They aren't going to run right at the Jetes, Bill's, and Fish, they are going make them play laterally, and they will use the bigger backs against weaker run defense's and to run out games. They are clearly a game plan team and Lewis is a great game plan weapon. Getting rid of him is nonsensical.

 

[Soul_Survivor88]

There's a huge difference between getting 8 total "ST snaps" as a returner, and getting 264 ST snaps (19 per game) making tackles in coverage against opposing returners and blocking for our own. Bolden can do the latter job. Lewis can't.

There are players currently signed that can replace Bolden's production on ST (e.g. Burkhead most prominently) and perhaps offer more on the offensive side.

Gillislee is an upgrade to Blount

Burkhead is a possible upgrade to Bolden

White will be asked to split reps and touches with Lewis, even as a starter.

Dion isn't redudant in the backfield. He has a niche and role that makes him a valued contributor. I expect him to remain on the roster for at least this season (barring a major preseason injury)