I just don't think the logic makes much sense. Is he a franchise QB of the future or not? If you believe he is, then you condition the trade on signing him to a long term deal. If you don't believe he is a franchise QB, then why would you trade all those picks? You'll never have more leverage because he is probably eager to play.
You don't trade #12 and #33 for a guy unless you think he is a franchise QB. So if he plays like a franchise QB in 2017, 4 years and $85 million will not do it in 2018 (not to mention, you can't force him to sign a deal if he just doesn't like it there).
The franchise tag might not necessarily do it either. Even if he accepts the tag then ok, you've bought a 2nd year. Then what? Also, remember... in this hypothetical, you've given up 2 first rounders for the guy in 2017 (ok ok #33 isn't a first rounder but it's close enough)... so if he plays like a franchise QB, some other team might give up 2 first rounders for him in 2018. Sure you get some picks back but you've wasted a whole lot of time and you're right back where you started.
You're basing this on having to make a decision on his long-term future at the time of the trade. Nobody says you have to do this. It is traditionally done, but that doesn't mean you must do it, and it means you carry the majority of the risk upfront.
If you trade #12 and #33 and Jimmy G sucks, then you've "lost" either way. Adding a long-term deal with lots of money guaranteed on day 1 just makes it a bigger loss. So there's no point bringing up the draft compensation, it has no connection to the type of deal you need to sign him to.
You're basically saying you want to sign him to a big deal right away to ensure you have him beyond one year, basically giving up your cheap first year or blending it into the contract a bit.
All I'm saying is you can also give him a full year to "prove it," still have the franchise tag to keep him, and you can negotiate a slightly bigger contract once you're convinced, but the average per year would still be similar. You're taking some of the risk out by not signing him to a huge deal right away.
Think of it like a wedding prenup. For some, it's a sign that there are doubts. For others, it's a necessary component before agreeing to get married. One isn't better than the other, just a matter of what makes sense for each couple.
So think about it this way. Let's say you give him your extension. What are your numbers? Does 4 years, $80M, $40M guaranteed sound reasonable? That's based on the Brock deal, and seems a bit high considering you're adding in his 1 cheap year.
In the other way, you could basically franchise him twice in a row and have a cheap year and still end up only paying him slightly more than half that amount. In the pay-as-you go option over 3 years, that looks roughly like $1M, $22M, $26M. Even if you were batshit crazy and decided to franchise him a 3rd time in a row for the massive 44% increase, that would put a ridiculous $37M on the deal in year 4 but that still only puts you at $87M over 4 years, not that far off the 4 years, $80M extension you'd sign on day 1.
For $7M, you could buy 3 easy "outs." Houston would have loved to have that option with the Brock deal.
And none of that precludes you from doing a long-term deal, but worst case scenario, it isn't going to be significantly worse than the extension you sign on day 1 with a lot of guaranteed money. You're basically protecting yourself for each year.
Obviously real life is much messier than theoretical posts, and no doubt Jimmy G would be pissed off if he got franchised 3 years in a row. It would never reach that point, I know that. But if he's good in year 1, you can still sign him to a big deal.
Let's say you make him play out his first year because you're not sure. Once you're happy, you could give him a 3 year, $79M deal with $50M in guarantees if you want and it's basically the same thing as the 4-year, $80M option in terms of average per year and you feel a lot better about the guarantees which are more than 2 consecutive franchise tags for Jimmy G, so he gets security there. No QB is averaging more than $25M a year right now. I'm not saying that's the exact deal, but in principle, you carry significantly less risk.
You also mention that another team might make him a deal under the franchise tag. But you have two options there:
1. you tag him with the exclusive franchise tag. It costs a bit more, but he can't negotiate with other teams, or
2. you tag him with the non-exclusive franchise tag, and have the option to match the offer sheet he signs too.
Now if you're a terrible team like Cleveland, you might want to sign him right away to keep him there as long as possible. That would be the one argument that makes sense to me. But I wouldn't give him a huge extension on day 1 just as a vote of confidence because that's how things are done. There's very little risk in waiting at least 1 year to do the deal.
