Barnwell: 2026 NFL trade tiers: Players worth Round 1 picks by team

[XLIX]

This is just another mediot ranking of players, one of a thousand we see during the offseason. But instead of using categories like “great”, “above average”, “fair”, “poor”, Barnwell’s shtick is he creates tiers numbered 1 thru 7, with 7 being the best.

 

[sb1]

For Maye is that 6 first round picks or less than that plus one good young QB prospect since they'll have DeVito and that's it? That's what it's missing.

 

[Wozzy]

Barnwell is usually a pretty good unbiased writer from my experience.
So obviously at 7 1sts he recognizes the value in Mahomes and Allen.
Yet we have several Pats posters who have written them both off.
Maybe, just maybe Pats fans aren’t the best judge of great QBs on opposing teams.
It’s not uncommon however.
Go on the Bills forum and they talk about how this proves just how great Allen is, but in the same breath talk about how “I don’t see it” with Maye and he can’t possibly be this valuable.

It’s not just Pats fans, it’s football fans at large. They attribute entirely too much success or failure to the QB position.

Go back a few years, the fear was Mahomes was already better than Brady or on track to surpass him. What happened?

Quite simply… they paid him. After his rookie deal ended he went from being cheap to one of the most expensive players in the league annually.

It’s easy to put a roster around a franchise QB when he accounts for 3-4% of your annual cap spending… once that jumps to 25% it becomes a lot harder to pay everyone else. This is why they traded Tyreek for a wad of draft picks, let stud LT Orlando Brown leave and cut loose most of their best players.

A stud QB on a rookie contract is a cheat code. Tom Brady won 3 rings under his rookie contract, it was a decade before he won again and it took Tom accepting less money and the team kicking cap debt down the road. This is why I say Tom taking less money from 2014 on was the most selfless act of team I’ve seen in the modern age.

Mahomes didn’t get worse, the team around him got worse. It’s a team sport, the ultimate team sport. QB’s look better or worse because the team around them, not because they forgot how to play football.

 

[Hugepatsfan]

This is just another mediot ranking of players, one of a thousand we see during the offseason. But instead of using categories like “great”, “above average”, “fair”, “poor”, Barnwell’s shtick is he creates tiers numbered 1 thru 7, with 7 being the best.

I wouldn't say that. By talking about trade value he's introducing more projection. For instance, most of those lists you reference rank Stafford ahead of Maye. But Barnwell has Maye worth more here. Because he's factoring in age and trajectory.

I would say those other rankings you reference are from the perspective of a coach who's trying to win a game next week. This list is more from the vantage point of a GM building his team for now and the future. It's an interesting exercise. You might not agree with the rankings but it's definitely a new twist on things.

 

[DoubleDeluxe]

It’s not just Pats fans, it’s football fans at large. They attribute entirely too much success or failure to the QB position.

Go back a few years, the fear was Mahomes was already better than Brady or on track to surpass him. What happened?

Quite simply… they paid him. After his rookie deal ended he went from being cheap to one of the most expensive players in the league annually.

It’s easy to put a roster around a franchise QB when he accounts for 3-4% of your annual cap spending… once that jumps to 25% it becomes a lot harder to pay everyone else. This is why they traded Tyreek for a wad of draft picks, let stud LT Orlando Brown leave and cut loose most of their best players.

A stud QB on a rookie contract is a cheat code. Tom Brady won 3 rings under his rookie contract, it was a decade before he won again and it took Tom accepting less money and the team kicking cap debt down the road. This is why I say Tom taking less money from 2014 on was the most selfless act of team I’ve seen in the modern age.

Mahomes didn’t get worse, the team around him got worse. It’s a team sport, the ultimate team sport.

Fair points....however
Brady was not a stud QB in his first 3 years starting.
He was a winner and made plays that won games but statistically wasn't close to a stud.
Now when Mahomes stats drop some of us say want to devalue him.
He's still winner, and will continue to be so imo.
Again, could be wrong, but I don't think so.

 

[Wozzy]

I wouldn't say that. By talking about trade value he's introducing more projection. For instance, most of those lists you reference rank Stafford ahead of Maye. But Barnwell has Maye worth more here. Because he's factoring in age and trajectory.

I would say those other rankings you reference are from the perspective of a coach who's trying to win a game next week. This list is more from the vantage point of a GM building his team for now and the future. It's an interesting exercise. You might not agree with the rankings but it's definitely a new twist on things.

It’s kind of silly, no GM is ever trading that many firsts. They’d just draft their QB of the future instead.

Also Mahomes is 31 years old and has a massive contract… by default Drake Maye is worth more than all of them because he’s really young and still on his cost controlled rookie contract.

But we’re bored and need something to talk about so….

 

[Hugepatsfan]

It’s kind of silly, no GM is ever trading that many firsts. They’d just draft their QB of the future instead.

Also Mahomes is 31 years old and has a massive contract… by default Drake Maye is worth more than all of them because he’s really young and still on his cost controlled rookie contract.

But we’re bored and need something to talk about so….

That part is fair. I guess for the silly outliers like that he could have just said "not feasible" instead of an obscene number of picks that's totally made up. Whatever though, that's the outlier part.

But throughout the rest, I found it interesting. Once you get into the more practical discussions of if a guy is worth 1 1st, a 1st plus some more, 2 1sts or 2 1sts plus some more I thought that was a fun exercise to read through. Those are actually worthwhile exercises IMO.

 

[Wozzy]

Fair points....however
Brady was not a stud QB in his first 3 years starting.
He was a winner and made plays that won games but statistically wasn't close to a stud.
Now when Mahomes stats drop some of us say want to devalue him.
He's still winner, and will continue to be so imo.
Again, could be wrong, but I don't think so.

Mahomes was a stud his first three years, largely because Reid is an offensive genius… and Mahomes only won one ring. That only solidifies my point. Team matters more than QB.

Give Mahomes a superior offensive line, weapons like Tyreek, Lesean McCoy, Sammy Watkins, Kelce in his prime, a stud laden Steve Spagnuolo defense and he’ll win a championship again.

Assuming health QB’s don’t change that much from year to year. This is why these popularity lists are silly.

Randy Moss catching 500 yards receiving for the Raiders in 2006 is still the best WR in the NFL, Stephon Gilmore on a terrible Buffalo defense in 2016 is still the best big CB in the league… even if some dumb list or PFF drops them way down.

 

[Rob0729]

Under current rules, they basically can't. The NFL won't allow teams to trade picks more than three years out (e.g., right now, the 2030 picks definitely don't exist). [Some team proposed making the limit five years, but that fizzled.]

I forgot about that. But including this year's draft, the Jets have five first round picks in three years. So trading six first round picks over three years is certainly possible although extremely unlikely.

 

[Rob0729]

The whole point of the article is that to float a measurement system for player evaluation. It should be taken entirely literally.

The trade value for Drake Maye isn't literally six first rounders. He just used first round picks as the metrics to evaluate the value of the player. So you don't take it literally.

 

[DoubleDeluxe]

The trade value for Drake Maye isn't literally six first rounders. He just used first round picks as the metrics to evaluate the value of the player. So you don't take it literally.

tomato/tomahto.
You could take it either way.
Without players involved, you could say using draft picks alone, he literally is worth 6 firsts.
However there is literally no possibility that would happen.