Belichick the contrarian Moneyballer of the NFL

[Wolfpack]

I think it's a testament to the brilliant run this franchise has had that you both could have such ridiculous expectations.

I don't think there's anything ridiculous in thinking this team can win a Super Bowl. But hey, if you want to throw in the towel on next season already and, using this past season as an example, be perfectly happy with losing to the Jets in the playoffs, then I guess our styles of fandom differ.

Your post is talking about teams over decades of playing, but you conveniently omitted the part where I said as long as we have Brady and Belichick, I expect to contend for Super Bowl, not Wild Cards. Sure 20 years from now, I have no doubt my mentality will change. But unlike you, I'm not happy with making the playoffs only to lose to the Jets.

 

[jbb9s]

I love watching a value investor like Buffett, whoops I mean Belichick, play the game. Here are a number of areas where he exploits "mispricings" by the rest of the league, and goes against the grain.

1. The league consistently overvalues 1st rounders, especially high ones.
2. The league overvalues draft pundits and media expert opinions.
3. The draft grossly overvalues this year vs. the medium and long term
4. The league undervalues position versatility,
5. The league undervalues special teams contribution
6. The league overvalues "measurables" and undervalues character and football IQ.
7. The league overvalues their own ability to assess talent, and undervalues the need to have quantity of picks to compensate for the misses.

In football, injuries and luck play a big part in winning SBs. If you think about the Pats, the best dynasty in the history of the sport, they have played 12 quarters of SB with a net scoring advantage of +6. Two freakin field goals. We're not talking about best of 7 series where the better team always wins. We're talking about one fumble, one int or one bad, unreplayable call. Good players help but the Yankees model won't work in the NFL.

BB understands that the best way to win is to consistently have a good team, over a 10 yr+ period, and the pieces will sometimes fall into place (2001) and sometimes not (2007). He wants a good team every year but not a unsustainable, pro bowl, expensive team that will hit or miss before the franchise toils away for 5 yrs rebuilding.

Remember that 25% of this year's Pro Bowlers were not drafted. That means that a whole lot of people wasted a lot of time and energy this weekend. Also, there is a coin flip chance that there is a wideout on the street right now looking for a UDFA chance who will end up being better than Julio Jones, who the Falcons mortgaged their future for.

 

[RayClay]

And that is why we've won 10 straight Super Bowls.

Which team won 10 straight championships? I must be a little rusty on my Pro Football history.

 

[RayClay]

He won 3 Super Bowls. Other teams have won 8. What am I missing?

Which team won 8 Super Bowls? Wow, I'm really learning something today, i need to keep up more.

 

[ClevTrev]

Huh? When did the O-line go from turnstile Light, holdout Mankins, made of glass Neal and liability Koppen to being dominant for 10 years? Unless Vollmer alone is enough for an O-line.

Solder may get us closer but as is repeatedly said in this forum, the draft is a crapshoot so who knows? Cannon is even more unknown... I would be happy to see a good o-line just this next year, thank you very much.

Son, you seem to be picking up your knowledge of American football on this forum. Here are a couple suggestions:

- Try other sources like the CHFF and other blogs that give (at times) thoughtful perspective.

- Understand that the NFL has a salary cap and learn about it and how teams must manage it expertly to sustain success over time. It's very different than International "football" (soccer). Not even close!

- Understand that the NE Patriots have been one of the most successful teams in the NFL since 2001 and have had regular player turnover on the offensive line (and every other position, for that matter). Granted, there have been some good ones for several years, but nothing is forever, and great players' skills and effectiveness diminish over time. Lines are particularly important to the success of a football team on both sides of the ball. Building depth is what the best teams do. The Pats offensive line last season had a very good year, and now they're in the process of reviewing and rebuilding depth. Good time to do it!

- Remember that football is a game and it's meant to be fun. It's hardly part of life's core; although, you'll find plenty who don't want to understand this.

All the best!

To the OP, great thread and you nailed it. Couldn't agree more!

 

[Observer]

Son, you seem to be picking up your knowledge of American football on this forum. Here are a couple suggestions:

- Try other sources like the CHFF and other blogs that give (at times) thoughtful perspective.

- Understand that the NFL has a salary cap and learn about it and how teams must manage it expertly to sustain success over time. It's very different than International "football" (soccer). Not even close!

- Understand that the NE Patriots have been one of the most successful teams in the NFL since 2001 and have had regular player turnover on the offensive line (and every other position, for that matter). Granted, there have been some good ones for several years, but nothing is forever, and great players' skills and effectiveness diminish over time. Lines are particularly important to the success of a football team on both sides of the ball. Building depth is what the best teams do. The Pats offensive line last season had a very good year, and now they're in the process of reviewing and rebuilding depth. Good time to do it!

- Remember that football is a game and it's meant to be fun. It's hardly part of life's core; although, you'll find plenty who don't want to understand this.

All the best!

To the OP, great thread and you nailed it. Couldn't agree more!

Great description of the salary cap friend, yes I do understand it. But what does that have anything to do with dramatically going from an O-line with 4 out of 5 people seemingly on the way out to being set for 10 years?

 

[convertedpatsfan]

I don't think there's anything ridiculous in thinking this team can win a Super Bowl. But hey, if you want to throw in the towel on next season already and, using this past season as an example, be perfectly happy with losing to the Jets in the playoffs, then I guess our styles of fandom differ.

Your post is talking about teams over decades of playing, but you conveniently omitted the part where I said as long as we have Brady and Belichick, I expect to contend for Super Bowl, not Wild Cards. Sure 20 years from now, I have no doubt my mentality will change. But unlike you, I'm not happy with making the playoffs only to lose to the Jets.

I don't see where I wrote that I was thrilled with making the playoffs and losing to the Jets. Nor do I recall throwing in the towel next season. Perhaps you could point those posts out for me? Or maybe you could quit making stuff up?

The goal of every team is to win the Super Bowl every year, and by that standard, 31 teams fall short of that goal every year. The best team does not win the Super Bowl every year. It takes a lot of hard work, dedication, and even some luck here and there. What we've done is built a team capable of competing for a championship every single year since 2001. Some years, we haven't been the favourite but won (2001). Some years, we have been but didn't get it done (2007).

But the Super Bowl is not a birth right just because the Pats won 3 in 4 years. It's easy to be spoiled by the success, as clearly many have been. It's why several in the chat room were calling for BB to be fired during the draft. Just ridiculous.

 

[Wolfpack]

I don't see where I wrote that I was thrilled with making the playoffs and losing to the Jets. Nor do I recall throwing in the towel next season. Perhaps you could point those posts out for me? Or maybe you could quit making stuff up?

It's just a logical deduction from what you said. You called wanting to go to the Super Bowl a "ridiculous expectation". I bet most members of this forum don't consider it a "ridiculous expectation" for hoping the Pats are in the Super Bowl this year.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

It's just a logical deduction from what you said. You called wanting to go to the Super Bowl a "ridiculous expectation". I bet most members of this forum don't consider it a "ridiculous expectation" for hoping the Pats are in the Super Bowl this year.

There's nothing wrong with hope. It's the ridiculous expectations that come with some of the more spoiled fans on here. Perhaps it was unfair to target you for it, and for that, I apologize. I re-read some posts and realized you weren't as bad as some of the yahoos I've been watching over the past 3 days demanding BB be fired because of this draft.

 

[AzPatsFan]

How old are you kid? You sure were not around in 1990, or the early 1990's for that matter.

Amen brother!

It was hard rooting for a Team that went 1-15 or 2-14. And try that in the late 60s, and 70s, and even 80s except for 1985... and then the Bears Superbowl drubbing, too ?!?

:bricks:

 

[ClevTrev]

Great description of the salary cap friend, yes I do understand it. But what does that have anything to do with dramatically going from an O-line with 4 out of 5 people seemingly on the way out to being set for 10 years?

Once you learn about the salary cap and how it impacts teams' decisions, then you'll be able to answer your own question.