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Felger goes too far: cherry picks stat ("13% of cap"), ignores context, claims Belichick/Kraft only underpay QBs out of greed...

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Shockt327

Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job
Ok, I found the link on Felger and all his nonsense on 13% and how he just so happened to stumble on to this curious percentage on his own....
:rolleyes:


 

BobDigital

Pro Bowl Player
Between 2005-2013 Brady was one of the highest paid QB's in the league, in 2010 they made him the highest paid player in the NFL for a short period... they won zero rings in that time frame.

From 2000-2004 he was paid like a 6th round rookie, from 2014-2019 he took a little less and the team perpetually kicked salary cap debt down the road from his contract and those of their highest paid players, they won 6 rings in that time frame.

If teams want to win multiple rings they should either have a great team surrounding a good rookie QB before his rookie deal ends (Chiefs), or they need a vet QB willing to take a little less and also borrow from future cap space to acquire other players win now (Patriots 2014-2018).


This is true but it only considers 1/3rd the situation. Consider the Saints from around 2015-2020. They one of many teams that over a period of time borrows against the future to field a better team. It isn't so much the team needs a vet QB to take less and to borrow vs the future. But they need to pull extra money from somewhere and doing both is more sustainable and easier than doing one.

The thing to point out about the Saints is they are one of many teams that borrowed and got future debt to win. Just like the Pats did from 14-18 (though not to the same extent) There are also teams like KC (18-20), SEA (13-15) or GB (10-14) ect... that had a young underpaid QB who played at a high level. Not all of these teams won every year because they did those things. But it at least put them in contention against the other 'advantaged teams'. Every year there are 5-6 teams that have a huge advantage over the rest of the NFL either because of a good young QB on the cheap or because they are selling out to win now. You may beat 1 in the playoffs, maybe even 2 (super unlikely). But beating 3 in a row? That is almost impossible unless you are also in that group. Even on the bottom edge of it like the Pats were whose version of 'selling out to win' meant getting about 20M in debt by the end as opposed to the Saints 70... At least they were in the conversation and it opened the door for them. If you aren't one of the teams in this group then you almost have no chance to beat the teams that are.

It isn't so much if teams want to win multiple rings. It's if teams want to win any rings at all. To try to do it the sustainable way the Patriots did from 05'-13' put them in a disadvantageous position every year in the NFL against teams who weren't doing it like that or had a dirt cheap QB. And they did almost win some along the way, but even with the GOAT it didn't bounce their way. This is one of the things I will forever criticize BB for. He was SO OBSESSED with being consistently good and not selling out next year for this one that it cost them rings. Would they perhaps have missed the playoffs some of these years if they went 'all in'. Possibly. But that unwillingness to take risk until late in Brady's career was a huge mistake and cost them multiple chances. If he burrowed against the future for 06'/07' he could have won both those years. Then 08'/09' would have been 'pay the piper years. But he could have done it again in 10'/11'12' and have reset in 13'. Until their final push from 14-18'. I remember fans complaining year in and year out about the lack of urgency from the front office. Them wanting to be consistently good at the cost putting themselves in a position to win. I'm still pissed about it. I don't know why it's not brought up anymore.

Isn't it weird how 13% of the cap commits 50% of the success?

That is a bit unfair. QBs in reality have shown that if they are REALLY good HOF level guy is worth 4-5 extra wins above a good backup QB/low level starter. The difference between a top QB is a bad but not absolute trash QB is about 25-30% of success when going by that. And it makes a lot of sense. When we look at the cap, we need to remember baselines.

To fill a spot on your roster for the minimum price cost on average around .4 % of your cap. That is how much it would cost to just fill your roster without even getting anyone good. Just baseline level players. So before we even look to get above replacement players we have already burned away 22% of our cap just to have a full roster. So 22% of your spending is forced and gone before you even begin. So in reality the money your spending on each player above that is their real worth and your disposable money. So in reality the threshold is closer to 17% of your disposable income. (you divide the salary amount by .78

However, when you still look at it the 17% of disposable cash threshold to win a super bowl doesn't match the 25-30% difference a QB can make. Why? The solution to this could be explained through math no doubt if I took a few days to hammer it our if someone truly gifted with numbers devoted time to it. The short non-proof based answer is about 'Advantaged' teams vs 'league average' vs 'rebuilding teams' and the difference between them. Over the course of the year Team A is likely to faced as many Advantaged teams as rebuilding teams (IE either teams with a very good QB on a rookie contract or teams borrowing substantially against the future as opposed to teams in the opposite spot). They are VERY likely to lose to the advantaged teams if they play one but very likely to win against the rebuilding teams. Then you have the majority of the schedule which is league average teams. These are the majority of teams you face and the teams a HOF QB typically picks on, even if not on an advantaged team. And even on a rebuilding team he does well enough against them. Another way to put it is a good enough QB allows you to almost fully jump one tier up (from rebuilding to league average and from league average to advantaged), though not completely a full tier up. And if you have a HOF level QB on the cheap along with borrowing against the future as well... look out.
 
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Sect140

Rookie
As Felger always says why let facts get in the way of a juicy story. People shouldn’t tune into get facts, they are like TMZ. During deflate gate he use to crucify Brady and and say he was guilty and NFL was doing the right thing, yet at night he would write an article stating the opposite. They sit in their daily production meetings determining how can we rile everyone up today. He has said in the past he learned from Orway. I‘ve said this in the past but the best money I spend a month is SIRIUS radio.
 

Cam2HarryGOAT

On the Game Day Roster
I cannot wrap my mind around wasting that much energy on Mike Felger. It's just bizarre to me. There is a contingent of people, not just in Boston, but any town, that legitimately enjoy being pissed off. It's like going out of your way to find a hooker that takes a dump on your chest as part of her routine and then becoming outraged when she takes a dump on your chest. It just does not compute.

Felger is what he is. What he has been for over a decade now. If you are watching or listening to that ass clown you enjoy his shtick. So please stop compaining about it. That goes for all of them- the Rob Parkers, the Max Kellermans, Skip Bayless, Coqwherd etc It's an entire industry. People with no talent who just spew moronic nonsense, so outrageous it;'s designed to get people to stop what they are doing, become outraged and hate watch/listen/read. Stop buying in. You are being manipulated. These hacks don't even believe half the nonsense that comes out of their mouth. It's a spectacle. None of it is meant to be taken seriously. Or, keep watching, because deep down inside, even though you wont admit it to yourself, you love it. You couldn't stop if you wanted to. But at least stop complaining about them like it's 2004 and this is new ****. Yeah, hot take artists suck. We know. This isn't news.
 

luuked

PatsFans.com Supporter
PatsFans.com Supporter
:45 - Bill takes the money, Tom Brady leaving money under cap allows them to pay Belichick intead of players

Thanks for bringing this up because now a thread made by one of the total bozos on this board a couple weeks back makes a lot more sense. Fitting that the specific moron got this idea that somehow BB's contract was making the team not spent to the cap -- both wild lies -- from the elder moron on sports radio.


But on a serious level what does that even mean ? Coaches' compensation is not part of the salary cap. At the same time Kraft has been upgrading Gillette, bought two friggin airplanes for the team, keeps investing into new tech to help football ops like those flotation beds while we have been investing up to the cap -- except for the usual 5-6M carry over they keep around as buffer -- every year.

I just don't understand the underlying "Felger logic" how paying BB whatever his rate is affects the players at all. If he wants to complain about the roster building philosophy and would rather go for a windows of 3-4 years instead of attempting to be sustainable -- like we were for about 10 years -- then that is his opinion. But conflating the head coach salary with all that is beyond moronic.
 

JarOfMayo51

PatsFans.com Supporter
PatsFans.com Supporter
We already know what a conniving little **** Felger is, we didn't need you to post an entire summary of his worthless opinion on our sacred forums to remind us

His entire persona is an act to manipulate people into getting angry and keep listening so he makes more money. If he upsets you so much, then do the intelligent thing and stop listening to him... I did that like 5 years ago and am much happier for it. Otherwise, you're just willingly allowing yourself to be manipulated and agitated, which isn't very intelligent. Be smart instead.
 
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Steve:Section 102

A lion isn't concerned with the opinion of sheep
PatsFans.com Supporter
i can't believe felger still is on the air......pulling the plug on sport talk radio was the best thing i've ever done

if he made this whole rant without ever once mentioned that no team has won a lombardi in the salary cap era while committing more than 13% of their cap to the QB position, then he has zero credibility......which most of us knew
I didn't even read it. Felger sucks, he's pandering to everyone pissed off that Brady's gone. He's terrible.

I can listen to Dale and Keefe a little bit, Zo during football season. That's about it.
 

bresna

PatsFans.com Supporter
PatsFans.com Supporter
Bill just underestimated Brady's ability at 43. Idk if it had anything to do with being cheap. He made a grievous mistake.

Then he had no cap space last year to chase any QBs which is why we were stuck with cam newton

Re-read that last line. Read it and remember that part about "no cap space". Then remember that Brady signed for $25 Million. Use reason here and answer a question to yourself... if they didn't have the cap space to sign a high end free agent QB, how could they have signed the free agent GOAT?
 

RIpats88

In the Starting Line-Up
Re-read that last line. Read it and remember that part about "no cap space". Then remember that Brady signed for $25 Million. Use reason here and answer a question to yourself... if they didn't have the cap space to sign a high end free agent QB, how could they have signed the free agent GOAT?

They would've had to let some good players go. Making the talent drop even worse.

It's why I don't really feel too upset about brady leaving. He likely never wins another super bowl with the patriots. The bill finally came due for the pats
 

bresna

PatsFans.com Supporter
PatsFans.com Supporter
They would've had to let some good players go. Making the talent drop even worse.

But almost all of the players they let go would hit the cap harder in dead money. Thuney's franchise tender ($14 Million) was about the only way they could clear space. Yes, in addition to letting Thuney walk, they could have tried to renegotiate several other players' contracts (Gilmore, Edelman, Mason, etc.) but they would've had to clear ~$25 Million in space just to match the Bucs offer to Brady. It would be nearly impossible to free up that much space without seriously hurting their future cap. Now that COVID hit and we've learned that the new cap will go down, it is even more important to to realize how lucky the Pats are that they didn't push a bunch of money into subsequent years.

BTW - Brady's cap number goes up next year (to $28.375 million) due to his NLTBE bonuses converting to LTBE so his cap hit for the Bucs next year will be 15.3% of the total.
 

Shockt327

Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job
!!!!

Felger is talking about it right NOW again. A fan just pointed out that the 13% rule applies to all SB winning team. All of them. All. And again, Felger denies it & claims that it skewked becaue of Brady being 7xchamp & is trying to claim that this just Patriots thing.

And now he spinning it, so that "even if it's true" then it must mean that the only viable option is to cut the QB once he's off his rookie deal, and well, it must mean that KC has to cut Patrick Mahomes, and blah blah blah (/end).

Or? Maybe you just ask the QB to take less than 13%. Really, this guy is full of crap.
 

Shockt327

Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job
BTW - Brady's cap number goes up next year (to $28.375 million) due to his NLTBE bonuses converting to LTBE so his cap hit for the Bucs next year will be 15.3% of the total.

I bet you a million bucks that Brady signs an extension & gets the cap hit back under 13%. Same as he did in NE.
 

RIpats88

In the Starting Line-Up
!!!!

Felger is talking about it right NOW again. A fan just pointed out that the 13% rule applies to all SB winning team. All of them. All. And again, Felger denies it & claims that it skewked becaue of Brady being 7xchamp & is trying to claim that this just Patriots thing.

And now he spinning it, so that "even if it's true" then it must mean that the only viable option is to cut the QB once he's off his rookie deal, and well, it must mean that KC has to cut Patrick Mahomes, and blah blah blah (/end).

Or? Maybe you just ask the QB to take less than 13%. Really, this guy is full of crap.

It's basic math the more money the QB makes the less money other positions have. So you end up filling with lesser players or drafted guys who are now later round picks.

It's why seattle has taken such a fall. It's also why in a couple years the chiefs won't be as unstoppable. Because they will have holes in areas they can't fill because Mahomes isn't on a rookie deal anymore.

Why felger doesn't get that idk.
 

bresna

PatsFans.com Supporter
PatsFans.com Supporter
I bet you a million bucks that Brady signs an extension & gets the cap hit back under 13%. Same as he did in NE.

Hope the Buccaneers have fun with that... committing money to a 45-47 year old QB? Is Brady going to somehow become the first zombie QB? :)

Every team has to have an "expiration date" on every player. Sometimes, they get it right. Sometimes they get it wrong. I am still a firm believer in the theory that it's better to be 2 years early than 2 years late. 2 years late can kill your cap.
 

JarOfMayo51

PatsFans.com Supporter
PatsFans.com Supporter
Hope the Buccaneers have fun with that... committing money to a 45-47 year old QB? Is Brady going to somehow become the first zombie QB? :)

Every team has to have an "expiration date" on every player. Sometimes, they get it right. Sometimes they get it wrong. I am still a firm believer in the theory that it's better to be 2 years early than 2 years late. 2 years late can kill your cap.

i think that we're going to discover, a lot of the philosophies that Belichick employed while sound in logic, may have benefited from having the GOAT at the QB position. We may have start behaving similar to other teams, where we load up and try to make a 3-4 year run, then fall out of contention for a few years while we reload

Tampa had 1 SB in the history of their franchise 18 years ago, I dont think Glazer is going to be bent out of shape if his team only wins 1-2 SBs and then goes back to 8-8 for a few years because of the dead cap

All depends on getting that superstar stud at the QB position or not.. you can overcome a lot when you have a stud at that position
 

everlong

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
If Bill and Bob can talk their stars into taking a home town discount so they can fit more talent onto the roster that's terrific. When Bill and Bob drive the GOAT out of town because A the roster has been mismanaged and lacks offensive skill position talent, B the draft has been abysmal for half a decade and C they keep making insulting contract offers which offer to pay him in the bottom half of quarterbacks when all he wants is the Drew Brees contract then we have an issue.

In my opinion it's that simple and why I've sided with Brady. I do think Kraft has gotten off easy on this just like he did with Deflategate. Bob wants to be everything to everyone. He wanted to please Bill, Tom and keep public sentiment on his side. You can't serve all masters. He should have sacked up and either let Bill do what Bill does and send Tom to SF and let Bill roll with JG for better or worse or he should have told Bill FU we're giving Tom a contract to keep him a Patriot for life and we know he'll live up to it.

These half measures have worked as well as the half measure around Covid 19.
 

PP2

Pro Bowl Player
!!!!

Felger is talking about it right NOW again. A fan just pointed out that the 13% rule applies to all SB winning team. All of them. All. And again, Felger denies it & claims that it skewked becaue of Brady being 7xchamp & is trying to claim that this just Patriots thing.

And now he spinning it, so that "even if it's true" then it must mean that the only viable option is to cut the QB once he's off his rookie deal, and well, it must mean that KC has to cut Patrick Mahomes, and blah blah blah (/end).

Or? Maybe you just ask the QB to take less than 13%. Really, this guy is full of crap.

As @50-yard-line and @Cam2HarryGOAT have pointed out again and again, Felger is only interested in one thing, driving up viewership and as those posters have tried to point out to you, Felger knows very well that he gets more attention by angering listeners like you. The day Felger becomes rational and factual is the day he is out of a job.

So do yourself a favor and turn off the ****ing radio. All you're doing is giving him more attention which is exactly what he wants.
 

Froob

Independent Investigator & pliable af
PatsFans.com Supporter
Why do you people keep listening to people who are trying to make you mad for ratings?
 

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