We could play the Squeelers 1st round?

[upstater1]

It really is rather confusing, but my intrepretation is that the three way tie would first be broken down to 2 teams, since Pittsburgh and Baltimore are in the same division and Baltimore owns the tie-breaker between the two teams they would automomatically advance. The process would then be repeated according to the 2 Team Tie-Breaker Rules, in which the Steelers would own the tie-breaker (head-to-head) over Denver. I'm trying to find a source that spells all of this out in black and white (EXACTLY what needs to happen), but haven't had much success yet. I'll repost when I have a more definitive answer.

Yes, you're right. See my post below. I somehow missed the fact that Balt beat Denver this year. I had Denver getting the #5 based on conference record, and that's why I saw Baltimore ****blocking Pittsburgh out of the playoffs.

But because Denver lost to Baltimore, they'd go against Pitt in a tie-breaker.

Here's the key: the head-to-head tiebreaker gets tossed out the window if any of the other teams finish in a tie with Baltimore and Pittsburgh, and therefore Baltimore would not get the #5 seed, which means they'd block Pitt from the #6 seed tiebreaker again.

So, because Denver lost to both Pitt and Baltimore (a fact that I missed in my first scenario), they would be out of the playoffs if only those three teams finished with 9-7 records.

If any other team goes 9-7, you can't use head-to-head, and Baltimore does not get the #5 seed, but instead Denver does.

 

[klinefan]

Steelers, or Stealers after their Seattle game, are tough, always. I'm not sure how good their offense is, but their defense would probably eat us alive. Double Moss, triple Welker, and it's Maroney for 2 yards a carry.

 

[upstater1]

Ok. My initial post IS correct. The Steelers need the following:

1) Steelers win out
2) Jets lose to either Indy or Cincy
3) Denver lose to either Phily or KC
4) Jags lose to either Pats or Cleveland

Yahoo has a playoff scenerio generator and I ran this through and the Steelers get the #6 seed and face the Pats in the first round of the playoffs. Here's the link....

NFL - Playoff Scenario Generator- Yahoo! Sports

Yeah, I missed the Balt win over Denver, but.... I wonder why Houston and Ten aren't included as needing one loss, because if they get to 9-7, your head-to-head wins against Denver become irrelevant, and so does Baltimore's.

 

[upstater1]

Ok. My initial post IS correct. The Steelers need the following:

1) Steelers win out
2) Jets lose to either Indy or Cincy
3) Denver lose to either Phily or KC
4) Jags lose to either Pats or Cleveland

Yahoo has a playoff scenerio generator and I ran this through and the Steelers get the #6 seed and face the Pats in the first round of the playoffs. Here's the link....

NFL - Playoff Scenario Generator- Yahoo! Sports

You can't trust that Yahoo generator.

Look at the tie-breaker rules.

Head-to-head goes out the window when three or more teams are tied, unless one of the teams sweeps the others (which didn't happen with Pitt).

So, you'd go to conference record.

Under conference record, Denver gets in ahead of Baltimore.

This means the Yahoo generator is wrong.

So, in addition to your scenario above, you need to add two more to the mix:

5) Tenn loses at least one game
6) Houston loses at least one game

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Yeah I wouldn't put my full trust in the playoff generator. What if a tiebreak comes down to strength of victory? I'm not sure that thing is set to accurately compute SOV after all your predictions (if it is, that is dang impressive).

 

[supafly]

Forget about the stupid 'generator.'

It's all over the steelers website, Triggerfish is correct (with respect to upstater1)

As we've been talking about for days:



We beat JAX (good chance)
NYJ lose to EITHER Cincy or Indy (check)

Then all PIT has to root for is Philly to beat Denver. If that doesn't happen, they can even still get in if Oakland beat Balt.

So, as long as we beat JAX (or CLE does), and EITHER
1. Philly beats Denver
---OR---
2. Oak beats Baltimore

(given that the NYJ will lose at least once to IND or CIN)

 

[upstater1]

Forget about the stupid 'generator.'

It's all over the steelers website, Triggerfish is correct (with respect to upstater1)

As we've been talking about for days:



We beat JAX (good chance)
NYJ lose to EITHER Cincy or Indy (check)

Then all PIT has to root for is Philly to beat Denver. If that doesn't happen, they can even still get in if Oakland beat Balt.

So, as long as we beat JAX (or CLE does), and EITHER
1. Philly beats Denver
---OR---
2. Oak beats Baltimore

(given that the NYJ will lose at least once to IND or CIN)

This is incorrect, for the reasons mentioned above.

 

[upstater1]

I'll try to do it simply now:

Pitt, Balt, Denver and either Tenn or Houston finish at 9-7.

The first tie-breaker to come into play is conference record.

Denver gets the #5 seed.

So you redo the tie-breaker after that. The first tie-breaker that comes into play is again, conference record.

Baltimore gets the #6 seed.

Pitt is out.

 

[supafly]

This is incorrect, for the reasons mentioned above.

No, upstater, I don't believe it is.

Unless you're talking about my lack of putting in words that the Steelers must win out.

Look at triggerfish's posts again--it's the exact same thing I wrote.

It's been figured out since late Sunday evening, unfortunately I have to live here (PIT) and everyone's talking about it.

Please tell me what's wrong?

 

[supafly]

I'll try to do it simply now:

Pitt, Balt, Denver and either Tenn or Houston finish at 9-7.

The first tie-breaker to come into play is conference record.

Denver gets the #5 seed.

So you redo the tie-breaker after that. The first tie-breaker that comes into play is again, conference record.

Baltimore gets the #6 seed.

Pitt is out.

PIT beats DEN is a tiebreaker, due to head to head winning

 

[supafly]

You are forgetting about the teams that have played head to head, I believe.

That will take rule first, of course.

----------

I think maybe you are confusing yourself, but if I am incorrect, please allow me to be the first to apologize. This is what the newspapers/newstations in Pittsburgh are reporting.

Also steelerdepot.com

And pft's link to nbcsports.com
-----------

Again, I think you are forgetting about PIT's beating DEN head to head. Again, if we're all wrong and you are right--then apologies.

 

[upstater1]

You are forgetting about the teams that have played head to head, I believe.

That will take rule first, of course.

----------

I think maybe you are confusing yourself, but if I am incorrect, please allow me to be the first to apologize. This is what the newspapers/newstations in Pittsburgh are reporting.

Also steelerdepot.com

And pft's link to nbcsports.com
-----------

Again, I think you are forgetting about PIT's beating DEN head to head. Again, if we're all wrong and you are right--then apologies.

Head-to-head doesn't count when multiple teams are tied.

No apologies necessary. It's totally confusing. I screwed up once already.

Here are the rules:

Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)
1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in conference games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss

So, head-to-head sweep is #2. It doesn't apply if either Tenn or Houston go 9-7. So you'd drop down to tiebreaker #3, conference record.

 

[upstater1]

No, upstater, I don't believe it is.

Unless you're talking about my lack of putting in words that the Steelers must win out.

Look at triggerfish's posts again--it's the exact same thing I wrote.

It's been figured out since late Sunday evening, unfortunately I have to live here (PIT) and everyone's talking about it.

Please tell me what's wrong?

Head-to-head doesn't apply when multiple teams are tied, unless those teams played each other and one team wither swept all teams or lost to all teams.

 

[supafly]

Head-to-head doesn't count when multiple teams are tied.

No apologies necessary. It's totally confusing. I screwed up once already.

Here are the rules:



So, head-to-head sweep is #2. It doesn't apply if either Tenn or Houston go 9-7. So you'd drop down to tiebreaker #3, conference record.

Well, I certainly wouldn't put it past these 'yinzer' idiots to screw it up, but if you say it's right--then I'm gonna listen to you.

It's not worth trying to figure out yet anyway, they may not even win vs. BAL on Sunday.

I'd imagine there will be a much clearer picture after Sunday's games anyway, we'll have to let it play out.

Happy Holidays Brother.

 

[Triggerfish]

Head to head only counts if all teams in the tie are common opponents. Which Pit, Denver, and Baltimore are.

Also, I understand how the generator works, and you only choose how to predict who will win the remaining two games, and THEN it sets the playoff seeding. HOWEVER, if you then go in and alter those results to reflect the game scenerios I originally mentioned, the Steelers do in fact unseat Denver for the #6 spot over Denver.

We can dispute this till we're both blue in the face (I might already be!) but this stuff has already been figured out by others who have a better understanding of the rules than me. This is the scenerio that gets Pittsburgh into the playoffs. It's still far from a certainty, but it's more promising than I had originally thought. A LOT went right for us this past week or none of this woulda even been possible.

 

[upstater1]

Head to head only counts if all teams in the tie are common opponents. Which Pit, Denver, and Baltimore are.

Also, I understand how the generator works, and you only choose how to predict who will win the remaining two games, and THEN it sets the playoff seeding. HOWEVER, if you then go in and alter those results to reflect the game scenerios I originally mentioned, the Steelers do in fact unseat Denver for the #6 spot over Denver.

We can dispute this till we're both blue in the face (I might already be!) but this stuff has already been figured out by others who have a better understanding of the rules than me. This is the scenerio that gets Pittsburgh into the playoffs. It's still far from a certainty, but it's more promising than I had originally thought. A LOT went right for us this past week or none of this woulda even been possible.

Seriously, deal with the scenario I wrote about here. Tenn and/or Houston finish 9-7.

Your head-to-head advantage against Denver goes away.

I agreed with you that in a head-to-head with Denver, you're in, but if Houston is 9-7, Denver gets in ahead of you no matter if Pitt wins both games.

I showed you the tie-breakers. How can you dispute that #2 requires you to sweep opponents (it's not record against common opponents, as you say)? If you don't sweep them, then #2 is irrelevant and you go to #3.

Just look at the rules in this thread. Do it yourself instead of relying on others (who may or may not be correct).

 

[upstater1]

Also, I understand how the generator works, and you only choose how to predict who will win the remaining two games, and THEN it sets the playoff seeding. HOWEVER, if you then go in and alter those results to reflect the game scenerios I originally mentioned, the Steelers do in fact unseat Denver for the #6 spot over Denver.

This is precisely why I said the Yahoo generator is wrong.

I put Houston winning both games in, and the generator still showed Pitt making it, which according to the tiebreaker procedure wouldn't happen.

 

[Triggerfish]

This is precisely why I said the Yahoo generator is wrong.

I put Houston winning both games in, and the generator still showed Pitt making it, which according to the tiebreaker procedure wouldn't happen.

Ok...now you have me confused. If Tenn. and or Houston win out, then they will ALL have a 6-6 conference record, correct? So, it would then go to common games since the sweep rule wouldn't apply, correct? I don't have the time or energy to look into that, but I tend to believe the generator I guess. Look, this is all very confusing for sure, and you yourself have admitted to at least one previous mistake. It's difficult to really see HOW it happens that the Steelers make it in, but from all acounts I've heard that IS the case if the above mentioned things happen. I've heard no mention of Houston or Tennessee playing a role in it, so I'm guessing they don't matter unless Pittsburgh fails to win out.

 

[upstater1]

Ok...now you have me confused. If Tenn. and or Houston win out, then they will ALL have a 6-6 conference record, correct? So, it would then go to common games since the sweep rule wouldn't apply, correct? I don't have the time or energy to look into that, but I tend to believe the generator I guess. Look, this is all very confusing for sure, and you yourself have admitted to at least one previous mistake. It's difficult to really see HOW it happens that the Steelers make it in, but from all acounts I've heard that IS the case if the above mentioned things happen. I've heard no mention of Houston or Tennessee playing a role in it, so I'm guessing they don't matter unless Pittsburgh fails to win out.

No, if all those teams are tied with Denver, Pitt and Baltimore, then Denver gets the #5 seed based on best conference record. Baltimore would be 7-5, so they'd grab the second wild card spot.

 

[SpiderFox53]

Ok...now you have me confused. If Tenn. and or Houston win out, then they will ALL have a 6-6 conference record, correct? So, it would then go to common games since the sweep rule wouldn't apply, correct? I don't have the time or energy to look into that, but I tend to believe the generator I guess. Look, this is all very confusing for sure, and you yourself have admitted to at least one previous mistake. It's difficult to really see HOW it happens that the Steelers make it in, but from all acounts I've heard that IS the case if the above mentioned things happen. I've heard no mention of Houston or Tennessee playing a role in it, so I'm guessing they don't matter unless Pittsburgh fails to win out.

Houston an Tennessee's only role in it is to cause the "head-to-head" tie breaker to be taken away. They have even less chance of getting in than Pissburgh does. <--- I do actually live there so I call it as I see it.