We could play the Squeelers 1st round?

[SVN]

i dont think anyone wants to see the steelers in the playoffs including the colts. iam quite confident they will beat balt and miami .Rest who knows. At this moment i just hope we beat jax first because we havent looked like a sure bet in the last few games..

 

[supafly]

That's one team I would not want Pats to face in wild card. With them, anything goes.....too many vets who been there. And its very highly likely someone will get dinged up even if Pats win, considering they are very physical team.

Yeah, if we had to play them the best case scenario would be for them to beat either SD/IND, then have to come to Foxborough for the AFCCG.

I could certainly see PIT beating either SD or IND.

 

[SVN]

Because all it takes is for a certain safety to return and it becomes a whole new ballgame.

yeah that too but they won quite a few games last yr without him against a tougher schedule.So they have the talent and exp without him.with him it just goes up.

 

[CGH TX PATS]

I don't know if we could survive a physical matchup against Pittsburgh in the first round then have to travel to SD and face their offense. I'm hoping that Pittsburgh doesn't finish as the 6 seed

 

[CGH TX PATS]

Plus, they better not blow the game against Houston... I'm going to that game!!!

 

[upstater1]

Pittsburgh's chances are a lot slimmer than I thought. They have basically no chance of getting in.

Check out rule #1 of the tiebreaker to understand why Pitt is sunk:

1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.

So, if Pitt and Baltimore are tied at 9-7, Baltimore advances to the wild-card tie-breaker with other 9-7 teams while Pitt is left behind. (Pitt and Baltimore will have split their season series, and Pitt's division record is 1-4 right now, so they lose the division tie-breaker to Baltimore each time).

Here is where things get tricky for Pittsburgh, and where Baltimore screws Pitt badly.

#2 tie-breaker is a head-to-head sweep

The head to head sweep is tossed out the window because no team has swept two of the possible contenders head to head.

#3 tie-breaker is conference record

Weirdly enough, most teams except finish with a 7-5 record in conference (Pitt and Tenn can't match that conference record, while Jax would be top of class at 8-4). So, you go to the next tie-breaker.

#4 is won-loss percentage against common opponents with a minimum of four.

This tie-breaker only came into play with Denver, and both teams finished 2-3 against Pitt, New England, San Diego and Indy.

So....

#5 Strength of victory.

This is where Baltimore truly screws Pittsburgh up badly. In any wild-card tie-breaker, Baltimore represents the AFC North wild card candidates, and in any wild card scenario, the #5 strength-of-victory tie-breaker will determine the first wild-card spot. Baltimore loses each and every time against all teams. Their strength of victory record is 47-79. They beat a lot of bad teams.

So, whoever is locked with Baltimore in the wild-card tie-breaker gets in ahead of Baltimore (except for Tennessee, but Tennessee drops out early in wild card scenarios, they are as screwed as Pittsburgh).

So, after the first wild-card seed is determined, you start all over again, and guess what? Baltimore represents the AFC North again while Pittsburgh sits out. You go through the tie-breakers again, and Baltimore loses again!

For Pittsburgh to get in, Baltimore MUST lose to Oakland. Jax, Miami, the Jets an Houston all beat Balt (and therefore Pitt) if tied at 9-7. Denver is practically a shoe-in at this point. Baltimore has to win both of its last 2 games to get in. After Denver, Jacksonville has the best shot of getting in.

If Jax beats the Patriots on Sunday, they're in IMO.

Pitt is virtually eliminated unless Baltimore loses to Oakland.

 

[Patspsycho]

Pittsburgh's chances are a lot slimmer than I thought. They have basically no chance of getting in.

Check out rule #1 of the tiebreaker to understand why Pitt is sunk:



So, if Pitt and Baltimore are tied at 9-7, Baltimore advances to the wild-card tie-breaker with other 9-7 teams while Pitt is left behind. (Pitt and Baltimore will have split their season series, and Pitt's division record is 1-4 right now, so they lose the division tie-breaker to Baltimore each time).

Here is where things get tricky for Pittsburgh, and where Baltimore screws Pitt badly.



The head to head sweep is tossed out the window because no team has swept two of the possible contenders head to head.



Weirdly enough, most teams except finish with a 7-5 record in conference (Pitt and Tenn can't match that conference record, while Jax would be top of class at 8-4). So, you go to the next tie-breaker.



This tie-breaker only came into play with Denver, and both teams finished 2-3 against Pitt, New England, San Diego and Indy.

So....



This is where Baltimore truly screws Pittsburgh up badly. In any wild-card tie-breaker, Baltimore represents the AFC North wild card candidates, and in any wild card scenario, the #5 strength-of-victory tie-breaker will determine the first wild-card spot. Baltimore loses each and every time against all teams. Their strength of victory record is 47-79. They beat a lot of bad teams.

So, whoever is locked with Baltimore in the wild-card tie-breaker gets in ahead of Baltimore (except for Tennessee, but Tennessee drops out early in wild card scenarios, they are as screwed as Pittsburgh).

So, after the first wild-card seed is determined, you start all over again, and guess what? Baltimore represents the AFC North again while Pittsburgh sits out. You go through the tie-breakers again, and Baltimore loses again!

For Pittsburgh to get in, Baltimore MUST lose to Oakland. Jax, Miami, the Jets an Houston all beat Balt (and therefore Pitt) if tied at 9-7. Denver is practically a shoe-in at this point. Baltimore has to win both of its last 2 games to get in. After Denver, Jacksonville has the best shot of getting in.

If Jax beats the Patriots on Sunday, they're in IMO.

Pitt is virtually eliminated unless Baltimore loses to Oakland.

Excellent breakdown. Thanks for doing such in-depth work.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Pitt is virtually eliminated unless Baltimore loses to Oakland.

Hold on, what if Pitt wins out, Den loses to Philly, and Jax/Jets/Hou each lose a game.

Say Pitt/Den/Balt are in a 3 way tie. Wouldn't Balt and Pitt get in on the head to head (Balt 2-1, Pitt 2-1, Den 1-2)?

That's the scenario I had in mind all along for Pitt... is that wrong?

 

[Triggerfish]

Actually, according to my calculations, the following needs to happen for the Steelers to make the playoffs:

1) Steelers win out
2) Jags lose to either Pats or Cleveland (please kick their asses this week!)
3) Jets lose to either Indy or Cincy
4) Denver lose to Philly or KC

 

[carolinatony]

Hold on, what if Pitt wins out, Den loses to Philly, and Jax/Jets/Hou each lose a game.

Say Pitt/Den/Balt are in a 3 way tie. Wouldn't Balt and Pitt get in on the head to head (Balt 2-1, Pitt 2-1, Den 1-2)?

That's the scenario I had in mind all along for Pitt... is that wrong?



This what I originally said and still have on definite answer.
IF all 3 are tied... who gets in?
I believe its Balt than Pitts and Denver is out????

 

[Triggerfish]

Hold on, what if Pitt wins out, Den loses to Philly, and Jax/Jets/Hou each lose a game.

Say Pitt/Den/Balt are in a 3 way tie. Wouldn't Balt and Pitt get in on the head to head (Balt 2-1, Pitt 2-1, Den 1-2)?

That's the scenario I had in mind all along for Pitt... is that wrong?



This what I originally said and still have on definite answer.
IF all 3 are tied... who gets in?
I believe its Balt than Pitts and Denver is out????

Yes, in this scenerio Baltimore gets in at #5, with the Steelers getting the last wildcard spot. And yes, Denver would be eliminated. There's actually a pretty strong possibility that these teams lose, but can the Steelers win out?? Neither of these last two games will be easy. I like the fact that we have the Ravens at HOME this week, and they barely beat us in Baltimore with Dixon in at QB. I think we COULD pull that one out. The Steelers match up pretty well with MIA, since the Dolphins rely heavily on their running game and that's about the only thing the Steelers D is still doing well. All of this will seem much MORE probable if we get Troy back though! It's still a longshot any way you slice it, but there is still hope.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Yes, in this scenerio Baltimore gets in at #5, with the Steelers getting the last wildcard spot. And yes, Denver would be eliminated. There's actually a pretty strong possibility that these teams lose, but can the Steelers win out?? Neither of these last two games will be easy. I like the fact that we have the Ravens at HOME this week, and they barely beat us in Baltimore with Dixon in at QB. I think we COULD pull that one out. The Steelers match up pretty well with MIA, since the Dolphins rely heavily on their running game and that's about the only thing the Steelers D is still doing well. All of this will seem much MORE probable if we get Troy back though! It's still a longshot any way you slice it, but there is still hope.

I see Pitt @ Miami differently. In his last 3 games, Henne is averaging over 300 passing yds per.They are MUCH more balanced than you give them credit for.

Don't think Pitt is making the postseason this year.

 

[upstater1]

Hold on, what if Pitt wins out, Den loses to Philly, and Jax/Jets/Hou each lose a game.

Say Pitt/Den/Balt are in a 3 way tie. Wouldn't Balt and Pitt get in on the head to head (Balt 2-1, Pitt 2-1, Den 1-2)?

That's the scenario I had in mind all along for Pitt... is that wrong?

Pitt and Baltimore cannot be in any three-way tiebreaker unless it's against Denver (head-to-head).

Rule #1 states that only one team per division can go into a tiebreaker. Baltimore is that team, not the Steelers (unless Baltimore loses to Oakland).

Denver and Jax have the best chances to get in with 9-7 finishes.

Then Miami, the Jets and Houston have decent chances.

Baltimore has the 6th best chance with a 9-7 record.

And Pitt and Tennessee are last.

 

[upstater1]

Actually, according to my calculations, the following needs to happen for the Steelers to make the playoffs:

1) Steelers win out
2) Jags lose to either Pats or Cleveland (please kick their asses this week!)
3) Jets lose to either Indy or Cincy
4) Denver lose to Philly or KC

More needs to happen. Both Tenn and Houston also need to lose at least one.

Or, wildshot, Pitt is the only 9-7 team at the end.

I did not run a scenario in which only one team finishes 9-7 while all the others finish 8-8.

I'm not sure that's possible.

 

[Ring 6]

No, that can't happen.

Read tiebreaker #1.

Pitt and Baltimore cannot be in any three-way tiebreaker.

Rule #1 states that only one team per division can go into a tiebreaker. Baltimore is that team, not the Steelers (unless Baltimore loses to Oakland).

Denver is IN with a win in their last game. The game against Philly is totally irrelevant for Denver.

Denver and Jax have the best chances to get in with 9-7 finishes.

Then Miami, the Jets and Houston have decent chances.

Baltimore has the 6th best chance with a 9-7 record.

And Pitt and Tennessee have little chance at all.

Someone please read rule #1 of the tie-breaker and tell me if I'm incorrect.

Are you applying those tiebreakers to select both the 5th and 6th seed in one step?
I think you use them to select #5 then start over at the top for #6.
I cannot tell which way you did it.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I just want us to beat Jacksonville convincingly on Sunday, kind of like the Giants whipped the Redskins on Monday night, and then I want us to play two or three strong quarters in a win over Houston to keep momentum.

If we go into the Playoffs strong and tough and on a roll, it won't matter whom we play in the Wild Card round; we'll send them home in a basket like we've done with every team this decade that has come to Foxboro in January.

If we limp into the Playoffs without momentum just because the Jets and Dolphins stunk it up, then it won't matter whom we play either because we'll be one and done in week one.

 

[upstater1]

Are you applying those tiebreakers to select both the 5th and 6th seed in one step?
I think you use them to select #5 then start over at the top for #6.
I cannot tell which way you did it.

No, I started over again.

Like I said, though, Baltimore loses out against other teams because of their strength of victory.

Then you start again, and Baltimore is the AFC North representative again in any wild-card tiebreaker (except against Denver), and Baltimore loses again.

 

[Triggerfish]

It really is rather confusing, but my intrepretation is that the three way tie would first be broken down to 2 teams, since Pittsburgh and Baltimore are in the same division and Baltimore owns the tie-breaker between the two teams they would automomatically advance. The process would then be repeated according to the 2 Team Tie-Breaker Rules, in which the Steelers would own the tie-breaker (head-to-head) over Denver. I'm trying to find a source that spells all of this out in black and white (EXACTLY what needs to happen), but haven't had much success yet. I'll repost when I have a more definitive answer.

 

[upstater1]

OK, I looked through my calculations from last night and I missed one thing.

It's totally improbable but IF the Steelers, Ravens and the Broncos are the only 9-7 teams, then the Steelers get in ahead of the Broncos, so the Broncos game against Philly is not irrelevant.

Basically what I did was find all head to head games between the wild card contenders, and constructed scenarios in which each team lost or won that game.

As I said in my previous post, I did not look into what would happen if all other teams finished at 8-8.

I should have done this though because with all other teams but the Steelers and Broncos getting in at 8-8, the Steelers get in ahead of the Broncos because of head-to-head record.

Head-to-head record will not come into play however if just one team other than Pitt and the Broncos finishes 9-7. Then you go to conference record and Denver is in and Pitt is eliminated for the #6 slot.

The one key fact that I somehow missed: Baltimore beat Denver head-to-head, so if for some reason those two teams were the ONLY teams in a head-to-head tiebreaker, Baltimore goes ahead of Denver.

There are 7 teams going for the last 2 slots. I think the chances of only two of those teams being in a tie-breaker in which head-to-head record comes into play are minimal, but if it happens that Balt and Den go head-to-head with no other teams, or Pitt and Denver, then Denver is eliminated.

If there are three teams involved in the tie-breaker, Denver gets in on conference record.


SO, to make things SIMPLE, Pitt needs to win out and make sure that every other team loses at least one game, because if any other team (other than Den or Balt) goes 9-7, they are done for.

 

[Triggerfish]

Ok. My initial post IS correct. The Steelers need the following:

1) Steelers win out
2) Jets lose to either Indy or Cincy
3) Denver lose to either Phily or KC
4) Jags lose to either Pats or Cleveland

Yahoo has a playoff scenerio generator and I ran this through and the Steelers get the #6 seed and face the Pats in the first round of the playoffs. Here's the link....

NFL - Playoff Scenario Generator- Yahoo! Sports