We could play the Squeelers 1st round?

[upstater1]

Let me just jump back in here.

Is this not what Triggerfish and I have been saying from the get-go?

We (and many publications/media outlets much smarter than us) had this pegged days ago.

I'm not sure what the big debate is still?

Whoever is doubting this is apparently not seeing something, it was obvious that head to head would take rule over everything, but as Triggerfish says, it will become much clearer on Sunday IF Pittsburgh wins vs. BAL.

Head-to-head doesn't apply at all if Pitt is tied with more than just Denver.

I think you skipped a bunch of posts.

 

[upstater1]

Could it be that the common games tie-breaker doesn't apply? They've had the required 4 common opponents, TEN, OAK, CIN, MIA. However, perhaps it doesn't apply, since Houston had the opportunity to play TEN twice, and they actually SPLIT those games (one loss, one win). Could it be then that TEN doesn't count then toward the required 4 common games? I'm just grasping at straws here. I understand that you've figured it out, but why is it then that I've seen my scenerio I posted on several websites now AND it plays out that way in the simulator or generator or whatever it's called??

I don't know why the generator doesn't plug in Houston. I think the generator just seeded teams based on conference record and head-to-head and it didn't do more than that. Who knows.

As for the common games tiebreaker, it's not based on best record but best winning percentage. So, you can have odd-numbered games figured in. The important thing is that there must be 4 common opponents.

 

[upstater1]

Thnx Deus, it's precisely what some of us have been saying since Sun. night.

I don't have the capacity of patience to figure it out or question other theories, but apparently there was a debate over complicated rules.

I am going to leave it to the experts, as I am sure they've looked at all of the angles, etc.

For anyone trying to figure it on their own, it surely will drive you nuts, and I can see why there would be mistakes. Just click on any link, and they already have it broken down, etc.

I showed how they have it done incorrectly. The generator and the Pittsburgh guy.

Also, Deus's link only shows head-to-head but if there's more than two teams tied at 9-7 (I bet there will be), head-to-head goes out the window. That's what we're discussing.

 

[supafly]

I could've sworn you told me this afternoon that PIT beating DEN this year didn't matter, due to head-to-head winning, and that conference record overruled instead?

EDIT: I was stating that PIT beating DEN has precedence over any tiebreaker in that scenario. I understand you are questioning how they would be ahead of HOU.

 

[upstater1]

NFL Playoff Projections, Scenarios for Week 16 - Dom Bonvissuto - SI.com

His gloss is too short for me. H2H means little because of the probability of more than 2 teams finishing 9-7, which totally subverts the head-to-head rankings.

What I did in the thread is show what would happen when multiple teams are 9-7.

In that case, Denver gets the #5 seed.

Pitt only gets in if they end up 9-7 in three scenarios:

1. Only Pitt and one other team finish 9-7 (Pitt and the other team get the wild cards)
2. Only Pitt and Denver and Baltimore finish 9-7 (Balt and Pitt get the wild cards)
3. Only Pitt and Denver and Tennessee finish 9-7. (Denver and Pitt get the wild cards)

If any of these three do not happen, Pitt does not get in. The first scenario assumes a Baltimore loss to Oakland. Essentially, Pitt has to hope that if there is a 3-way tie, it's either between Pitt, Tenn and Denver, or Pitt, Balt and Denver. A 4-way tie between all four of those teams also eliminates Pitt.

Pitt's ideal road in terms of probabilities is for Denver to lose 2 games, because that would create a clear path for them.

 

[upstater1]

I could've sworn you told me this afternoon that PIT beating DEN this year didn't matter, due to head-to-head winning, and that conference record overruled instead?

EDIT: I was stating that PIT beating DEN has precedence over any tiebreaker in that scenario. I understand you are questioning how they would be ahead of HOU.

I was making that argument in the context of a 3-way tie. In a 3-way tie, PIT's head-to-head win over Denver doesn't matter. Obviously, if it's only Pitt and Denver, then Pitt gets the wild card. But Pitt beating Denver does not have precedence at all unless there are only two teams in the tie-breaker.

 

[upstater1]

Thanks for the good luck wishes, and likewise to you and your Pats. I'm not upset at anyone for disagreeing. I just kinda want to have it figured out for my own sanity (or what's left of it after THIS season). What he's saying makes sense, but I also find it hard to believe that all the other sites I've seen have it wrong. Just curious is all, since I don't really get how PITT would have the tie-breaker over HOU either. But again...none of it matters if we don't beat those damn Ratbirds THIS week! Now, do me (and the Steelers) a huge solid and take care of business with Jacksonville this week, would ya??

LOL, I could be wrong.

I'd like to know how though.

I always get a kick out of the NFL tie-breakers. I think the division-elimination tie-breaker is pretty nuts.

Last year, New England could have tied with 3 other teams at 11-5, and they would get the shaft because of the nutty tie-breakers.

This year they can get into the playoffs with a 9-7 record whereas last year 11-5 wasn't good enough.

 

[supafly]

Once again, props for the time you've put into it, etc.

You could be right, for all I know you could be a statistical genius who's a math major from M.I.T.

It's obvious that someone's missing something here, whether it's one of the Steeler's webistes + The Pittsburgh Post Gazette + the playoff generator or you, I don't know.

I suppose anything's possible though.

I do know one thing, I certainly don't wanna create any more confusion etc about the situation so I'll bow out now. The last thing I wanna do is piss anyone off over something stupid like this.

And besides, I hope the S.O.B.'s choke and BAL wins anyway (no offense, Triggerfish). I hate them worse than anyone else, and I find it hilarious that it would take someone from another team's forum to crush the dreams of everyone who keeps talking playoffs around the pitiful city of Pittsburgh.

I know everyone on the news, at the mall xmas shopping, etc thinks that the scenario that has been provided is true, if you have discovered how to disprove it then, more power to you.

 

[upstater1]

Once again, props for the time you've put into it, etc.

You could be right, for all I know you could be a statistical genius who's a math major from M.I.T.

It's obvious that someone's missing something here, whether it's one of the Steeler's webistes + The Pittsburgh Post Gazette + the playoff generator or you, I don't know.

I suppose anything's possible though.

I do know one thing, I certainly don't wanna create any more confusion etc about the situation so I'll bow out now. The last thing I wanna do is piss anyone off over something stupid like this.

And besides, I hope the S.O.B.'s choke and BAL wins anyway (no offense, Triggerfish). I hate them worse than anyone else, and I find it hilarious that it would take someone from another team's forum to crush the dreams of everyone who keeps talking playoffs around the pitiful city of Pittsburgh.

I know everyone on the news, at the mall xmas shopping, etc thinks that the scenario that has been provided is true, if you have discovered how to disprove it then, more power to you.

Believe me, I don't really care.

You know what would be just beautiful?

If Den, Balt, Pitt and Tenn finished 9-7.

Steeler fans are convinced this would mean the Steelers are in the playoffs, because all the outlets and experts have said so.

But I'm 99.9% certain that the Steelers would be out in that scenario.

It would be great to see the fanbase stunned.

 

[Triggerfish]

Believe me, I don't really care.

You know what would be just beautiful?

If Den, Balt, Pitt and Tenn finished 9-7.

Steeler fans are convinced this would mean the Steelers are in the playoffs, because all the outlets and experts have said so.

But I'm 99.9% certain that the Steelers would be out in that scenario.

It would be great to see the fanbase stunned.

Well, after this season most of us Steelers fans have pretty thick skin. It would take a good bit to shock me, at least. I mean...we LOST to the Chiefs, Raiders, and Browns. That kinda takes a lot of the "shock factor" out of your system. Of course, as a fan, I want to see my team get a playoff berth. Am I convinced that it would mean another Super Bowl run? Ummm...no. But then again, ya never know. Sure would be some sweet redemption for having to witness the debacle of this season! Let's face it...the Steelers do NOT control their own destiny here, even if they win out. I could see most if not all of these teams we need to lose drop another game, but one little piece doesn't fall into place and the whole house of cards comes crashing down. That seems pretty damn likely too at this point! Hahaha.

Good luck this week. Crush those Jags. One of the very FEW weeks MOST Steelers fans will be rootin' for ya!

 

[upstater1]

Well, after this season most of us Steelers fans have pretty thick skin. It would take a good bit to shock me, at least. I mean...we LOST to the Chiefs, Raiders, and Browns. That kinda takes a lot of the "shock factor" out of your system. Of course, as a fan, I want to see my team get a playoff berth. Am I convinced that it would mean another Super Bowl run? Ummm...no. But then again, ya never know. Sure would be some sweet redemption for having to witness the debacle of this season! Let's face it...the Steelers do NOT control their own destiny here, even if they win out. I could see most if not all of these teams we need to lose drop another game, but one little piece doesn't fall into place and the whole house of cards comes crashing down. That seems pretty damn likely too at this point! Hahaha.

Good luck this week. Crush those Jags. One of the very FEW weeks MOST Steelers fans will be rootin' for ya!

Ah, this is the sort of thinking I employed last year. "Cassel can't win a championship anyway, so playoffs aren't a big deal."

Then the Patriots finished 11-5, out of the playoffs and it was a totally empty feeling. Worse than that, I still believe the NFL screwed the Patriots by putting them on at a different time than the Miami/Jets game because the Jets knew they were done before the game. I was royally ticked.

For Pitt and Patriot fans that are so used to success in the last 10 years, missing the playoffs is a major bummer.

 

[SpiderFox53]

I copied the following excerpt from an article in yesterday's Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. He explains what I've been trying to say better than I could, so here it is.


Tuesday, December 22, 2009
By Ed Bouchette, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette


"Let us begin with the easy part. The Steelers must win their final two games, Sunday against Baltimore at Heinz Field and Jan. 3 at Miami, to finish 9-7. Lose one, and they are done; no playoffs for the reigning Super Bowl champs.

The Steelers cannot win the AFC North Division, as they did the past two years, so they must secure one of two wildcard playoff spots available in the AFC to join the four division winners from the conference.

The difficult part comes trying to determine the many other scenarios. There are two potential wildcard playoff teams with better records than the Steelers, Baltimore and Denver at 8-6. Five other teams besides the Steelers stand 7-7.

They all likely will not finish with the same record, and the Steelers can eliminate the Dolphins from the equation when the two play on Jan. 3 in Miami.

If two teams tie for the final playoff spot, that is easy to determine. The first tiebreaker would be their head-to-head result. For example, if the Steelers and Denver tie, the Steelers would get the playoff nod based on their victory at Denver this season. The next tiebreaker would be best record within their division (if the two tied teams are in the same division). That's not good for the Steelers because, if they beat Baltimore Sunday and they both wind up 9-7, Baltimore gets the nod based on its better record against AFC North teams this season. If two teams tie and they are not from the same division and they did not play each other, the nod goes to the team with the best record against AFC opponents. If that, too, is tied, they look at the common games each team played and take the team with the best record against those.

Where it really becomes complicated is when three or more teams are tied for a wildcard playoff spot.

That could be good, or bad, for the Steelers because their 4-6 record in the AFC does not help if it gets to that tiebreaker. Of the 7-7 teams, Jacksonville (6-4) and the New York Jets (5-5) both have better AFC records.

Because there are so many scenarios, and newspaper space and readers' attention are not unlimited, we must turn to logic. So here goes:

We have to assume the Steelers finish the season 9-7 or there would be no reason to do this. That would eliminate Miami and reduce Baltimore to 9-7 at best. The Jets must play both the Colts and Bengals; New York is likely are to lose one and miss out. Jacksonville has to finish at New England and at Cleveland and the Jaguars also are likely to lose at least one and be done.

That would leave Tennessee, Houston, Baltimore and Denver. The Steelers would win tiebreakers over both Tennessee and Houston.

So, it could readily come down to Baltimore and Denver. If those two and the Steelers finish tied at 9-7, the Steelers and Ravens would earn the two wildcard playoff spots. In that scenario, the NFL would break the tie between the Steelers and Ravens first, because they reside in the same division. The Ravens would advance, based on their better division record.

Then, they would pit the Ravens against the Broncos and Baltimore would win because the Ravens beat Denver. The NFL would then break the tie between the Steelers and Broncos for the final playoff spot, and Denver would lose out because they lost to the Steelers this season."

This link will take you to the FULL article: Steelers' playoff hopes hinge on A over B or 2 over 3 or 1A-2B-3C

What this article says is correct. What it fails to mention is that if Balt, Den and Pitt plus any other team finishes at 9-7, then Pittsburgh doesn't make it.

EDIT: The article is correct except for winning the Tie breaker vs. Houston.

 

[Triggerfish]

Ah, this is the sort of thinking I employed last year. "Cassel can't win a championship anyway, so playoffs aren't a big deal."

Then the Patriots finished 11-5, out of the playoffs and it was a totally empty feeling. Worse than that, I still believe the NFL screwed the Patriots by putting them on at a different time than the Miami/Jets game because the Jets knew they were done before the game. I was royally ticked.

For Pitt and Patriot fans that are so used to success in the last 10 years, missing the playoffs is a major bummer.

Yea, I'm definitely gonna be bummed if they don't sneak in, although realistically, they probably don't deserve a wildcard. It just makes watching the postseason kinda....well, boring. I love the game of football, so I'll definitely be watching regardless, but it's just not with the same passion as when your team is in. That was definitely a bummer last year for you guys. Sucks to have that good of a record and still fall short.

Well, here's to hoping that BOTH of our teams get in this year, and better yet....face each other in the first week!!

Merry Christmas everyone! Always a pleasure participating on your forums here, even if I am on enemy territory.

 

[Triggerfish]

What this article says is correct. What it fails to mention is that if Balt, Den and Pitt plus any other team finishes at 9-7, then Pittsburgh doesn't make it.

The article clearly states the following though, which leads me to believe that the article is either wrong, or we're wrong in our tie-breaking scenerios here.

"That would leave Tennessee, Houston, Baltimore and Denver. The Steelers would win tiebreakers over both Tennessee and Houston."

 

[SpiderFox53]

Yea, I'm definitely gonna be bummed if they don't sneak in, although realistically, they probably don't deserve a wildcard. It just makes watching the postseason kinda....well, boring. I love the game of football, so I'll definitely be watching regardless, but it's just not with the same passion as when your team is in. That was definitely a bummer last year for you guys. Sucks to have that good of a record and still fall short.

Well, here's to hoping that BOTH of our teams get in this year, and better yet....face each other in the first week!!

Merry Christmas everyone! Always a pleasure participating on your forums here, even if I am on enemy territory.

At least you're only in virtual enemy territory. Living is Pittsburgh as a Patriots fan can get dicey at times and expensive (Sunday NFL ticket). First place I've ever lived that I couldn't go to a sports bar and watch the Pats.

 

[Triggerfish]

At least you're only in virtual enemy territory. Living is Pittsburgh as a Patriots fan can get dicey at times and expensive (Sunday NFL ticket). First place I've ever lived that I couldn't go to a sports bar and watch the Pats.

Yea, that sucks. I'm marrying into a Pats-loving family this summer, so it sucks for them as well living in PA. Sunday Ticket is their only savior. But if it makes you feel any better, I now live in the other end of the state in Eagles country, although there are still quite a few Steelers fans around.

 

[klinefan]

I hate the stealers quite passionately, but I think they'd whip the hapless Pats. Their defense would eat our OL alive. don't know about our defense against their offense.

 

[Triggerfish]

I hate the stealers quite passionately, but I think they'd whip the hapless Pats. Their defense would eat our OL alive. don't know about our defense against their offense.

Ummm...dude. Have you SEEN our Defense lately (or lack thereof)?? Without Polamalu, Brady and the boys would have a field day picking on our secondary. It's just mind-blowing to me that ONE guy can have such an obvious impact on an entire defense. I mean, he's a beast for sure and covers the entire field, but wow....he sure makes some otherwise very poor corners look pretty decent! I think the Steelers could have some success on offense against your D, but without Troy, I doubt we could hang with your wideouts enough to stay in the game. UNLESS we can get some pressure on Brady and rattle him a little. Would make for a pretty good game, as usual, I think.

 

[bostonia3333]

Pats should be doing some scoreboard watching the next two weeks and plan how to play their week 17 game. It DOES matter who they play. Belichick may pull a 2005 again and try to lose on purpose for a more favorable matchup

This should be the plan

1. Beat a crummy Jax squad....clinch AFC East and celebrate for a week

2. Whatever happens in the Balt-Pit game will tell us alot about how we play week 17. If Pit loses, we should win out to try and play MIA/NYJ/DEN. I think Pit wins. Balt will likely finish as the 5 seed, Denver will likely fall out with a loss at PHI, and keep a close eye on Pit as my gut tells me they slip in as the no. six spot with two clutch wins.

3. Toss around the idea before week 17 at houston...do we match up better with Balt or Pit?

4. Tough call, but I think I'd rather play Balt. Therefore, I think we should lose on purpose/rest everyone at Houston so we can get the 4 seed to match up with Balt. Pit is a dangerous passing team and we know the Pats struggle against upper echelon qbs. Roeth is a game changer--and would absolute shred this NE defense to pieces. He is so tough to tackle and creates havoc out of the pocket.

 

[upstater1]

Pats should be doing some scoreboard watching the next two weeks and plan how to play their week 17 game. It DOES matter who they play. Belichick may pull a 2005 again and try to lose on purpose for a more favorable matchup

This should be the plan

1. Beat a crummy Jax squad....clinch AFC East and celebrate for a week

2. Whatever happens in the Balt-Pit game will tell us alot about how we play week 17. If Pit loses, we should win out to try and play MIA/NYJ/DEN. I think Pit wins. Balt will likely finish as the 5 seed, Denver will likely fall out with a loss at PHI, and keep a close eye on Pit as my gut tells me they slip in as the no. six spot with two clutch wins.

3. Toss around the idea before week 17 at houston...do we match up better with Balt or Pit?

4. Tough call, but I think I'd rather play Balt. Therefore, I think we should lose on purpose/rest everyone at Houston so we can get the 4 seed to match up with Balt. Pit is a dangerous passing team and we know the Pats struggle against upper echelon qbs. Roeth is a game changer--and would absolute shred this NE defense to pieces. He is so tough to tackle and creates havoc out of the pocket.

If Houston wins on Sunday, and we throw the game to Houston in the last week, it's impossible for Pitt to get the #6 seed.