We could play the Squeelers 1st round?

[jmt57]

As good a resource as any for tiebreaker rules and scenarios that I have found over the past few years is over at CBS Sports.

NFL 2009 Playoff Race - CBSSports.com

Community - CBSSports.com

Assuming PIT wins out:

PIT has the 2-way tiebreaker on TEN and DEN. PIT will lose any tiebreak involving NYJ or JAC due to conference record. HOU would win a 2-way against PIT with common games. A 3-way with DEN could fall to SoV, which we will assume is not in PIT's favor (I haven't done the math yet, so that could be wrong, but I certainly don't think PIT has clinched the edge over DEN in SoV).

Thus, PIT advances on a tiebreaker if:
1) They are in a 2-way with DEN
2) They are in a 2-way with TEN
3) They are in a 3-way with DEN and TEN
Therefore, for PIT to advance they have to win out and have all but one of the following happen

1) NYJ loses a game
2) JAC loses a game
3) HOU loses a game OR TEN wins out
4) DEN loses out OR DEN loses a game + scenarios 1-3 happen
5) BAL loses to OAK

Regarding clinching scenarios for the Jets at 9-7:

Even though a NYJ-Pit-Den tie could still happen here, it would be the one where Denver drops out due to conference record and the Jets win the 2-way tie-breaker vs. Pittsburgh. If Jacksonville finishes 9-7 , the Jets get the 2nd Wild Card behind Jacksonville. If Jacksonville finishes worse than 9-7 , the Jets get the 1st Wild Card.

 

[Triggerfish]

Ok, my understanding (correct me if I'm wrong), is that the rules you mention above are the order of tie-breakers in which you ELIMINATE teams from playoff contention. After each round in which a team has been eliminated using these rules, the remaining teams are thrown back in the mix and the steps are done again until another team is eliminated....rinse and repeat so to speak. So, eventually these steps will eventually get you down to Pittsburgh against Denver (after eliminating Tenn. first based on conference record, then Houston based on ??). Anyway, once it gets down to 2 teams, the rules revert to the Two Club Tie-Breaking Rules, where the #1 tie-breaker is head-to-head. Does that make sense or am I way off?

 

[jmt57]

Ok, my understanding (correct me if I'm wrong), is that the rules you mention above are the order of tie-breakers in which you ELIMINATE teams from playoff contention. After each round in which a team has been eliminated using these rules, the remaining teams are thrown back in the mix and the steps are done again until another team is eliminated....rinse and repeat so to speak. So, eventually these steps will eventually get you down to Pittsburgh against Denver (after eliminating Tenn. first based on conference record, then Houston based on ??). Anyway, once it gets down to 2 teams, the rules revert to the Two Club Tie-Breaking Rules, where the #1 tie-breaker is head-to-head. Does that make sense or am I way off?

Right, first step would be to have only one team from each division in the multi-team tiebreaker. Then you go down the list to determine the #5 seed. Once that's done, 'rinse and repeat'; first get it down to just one team from each division, and start the process again until you can determine the #6 seed.

 

[Triggerfish]

So Pittsburgh gets thrown outta the equation automatically just because they happen to be in the same division as Baltimore whom they are tied with but lose the division record tie-breaker? Hmmm. Weird. Does Pittsburgh then get throw back INTO the equation after Baltimore is declared the #5 seed, since they would still technically be tied with the other remaining teams?? I'm just trying to make sense of how this works, as all the models I've seen have Pittsburgh getting in at #6 if the things I mentioned in my earlier post happen. Not to mention that the Yahoo Generator also has them in with those things happeneing (even with Hou and Tenn winning out).

 

[jmt57]

So Pittsburgh gets thrown outta the equation automatically just because they happen to be in the same division as Baltimore whom they are tied with but lose the division record tie-breaker? Hmmm. Weird. Does Pittsburgh then get throw back INTO the equation after Baltimore is declared the #5 seed, since they would still technically be tied with the other remaining teams?? I'm just trying to make sense of how this works, as all the models I've seen have Pittsburgh getting in at #6 if the things I mentioned in my earlier post happen. Not to mention that the Yahoo Generator also has them in with those things happeneing (even with Hou and Tenn winning out).

Yes, the Steelers would still be in the mix with all the other teams they are tied with in that scenario. The Steelers don't get completely thrown out; the Ravens could be #5 and the Steelers could still be #6 if they (and others) finish at 9-7. Once the #5 seed is determined everything starts from scratch to determine the #6 seed.

 

[upstater1]

Ok, my understanding (correct me if I'm wrong), is that the rules you mention above are the order of tie-breakers in which you ELIMINATE teams from playoff contention. After each round in which a team has been eliminated using these rules, the remaining teams are thrown back in the mix and the steps are done again until another team is eliminated....rinse and repeat so to speak. So, eventually these steps will eventually get you down to Pittsburgh against Denver (after eliminating Tenn. first based on conference record, then Houston based on ??). Anyway, once it gets down to 2 teams, the rules revert to the Two Club Tie-Breaking Rules, where the #1 tie-breaker is head-to-head. Does that make sense or am I way off?

No, teams are not eliminated in all situations. In fact, only one of the tie-breakers eliminates a team #2, (if they get swept by all the other teams they are tied with). Mostly, the tie-breakers try to find the team with the best winning-percentage. So, if Pitt, Baltimore, Denver, Tenn and/or Houston are tied, you're looking for the team with the best record in conference. That team is Denver. So then you start all over again: Pitt, Denver, Tenn, and/or Houston are tied. Baltimore gets in over Pitt because of division record and Baltimore goes over Tenn and Houston because of conference record.

The following 3 scenarios assume Pitt has the same record as Denver, Tenn and Houston at 9-7:

Scenario #1: If Baltimore beats Oakland, then Denver is the #5 and Balt is the #6.

Scenario #2: If Baltimore loses to Oakland, then Denver is the #5 and Houston is the #6 (Houston and Pitt tie conference records at 6-6, but Houston is 4-0 against Pitt's common opponents, while Pitt is 2-3).

Pitt needs Houston to lose one game.

Scenario #3, If Baltimore loses to Oakland, then Denver is the #5, and Pitt is the #6.

So, if I'm Pittsburgh, I'm rooting for Jax, Jets, Houston and Tenn to lose one game. If I'm Denver, I'm rooting for just one of those four teams plus Miami to win both of their games.

 

[upstater1]

Yes, the Steelers would still be in the mix with all the other teams they are tied with in that scenario. The Steelers don't get completely thrown out; the Ravens could be #5 and the Steelers could still be #6 if they (and others) finish at 9-7. Once the #5 seed is determined everything starts from scratch to determine the #6 seed.

But, you see, that's Pitt's problem. We're assuming a tie with Denver here at 9-7. In this scenario, Baltimore can't be #5, only Denver can because it will have the best conference record. Baltimore will grab the #6 seed.

 

[upstater1]

Ok, my understanding (correct me if I'm wrong), is that the rules you mention above are the order of tie-breakers in which you ELIMINATE teams from playoff contention.

Only teams from the same division are eliminated.

 

[Triggerfish]

I copied the following excerpt from an article in yesterday's Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. He explains what I've been trying to say better than I could, so here it is.


Tuesday, December 22, 2009
By Ed Bouchette, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette


"Let us begin with the easy part. The Steelers must win their final two games, Sunday against Baltimore at Heinz Field and Jan. 3 at Miami, to finish 9-7. Lose one, and they are done; no playoffs for the reigning Super Bowl champs.

The Steelers cannot win the AFC North Division, as they did the past two years, so they must secure one of two wildcard playoff spots available in the AFC to join the four division winners from the conference.

The difficult part comes trying to determine the many other scenarios. There are two potential wildcard playoff teams with better records than the Steelers, Baltimore and Denver at 8-6. Five other teams besides the Steelers stand 7-7.

They all likely will not finish with the same record, and the Steelers can eliminate the Dolphins from the equation when the two play on Jan. 3 in Miami.

If two teams tie for the final playoff spot, that is easy to determine. The first tiebreaker would be their head-to-head result. For example, if the Steelers and Denver tie, the Steelers would get the playoff nod based on their victory at Denver this season. The next tiebreaker would be best record within their division (if the two tied teams are in the same division). That's not good for the Steelers because, if they beat Baltimore Sunday and they both wind up 9-7, Baltimore gets the nod based on its better record against AFC North teams this season. If two teams tie and they are not from the same division and they did not play each other, the nod goes to the team with the best record against AFC opponents. If that, too, is tied, they look at the common games each team played and take the team with the best record against those.

Where it really becomes complicated is when three or more teams are tied for a wildcard playoff spot.

That could be good, or bad, for the Steelers because their 4-6 record in the AFC does not help if it gets to that tiebreaker. Of the 7-7 teams, Jacksonville (6-4) and the New York Jets (5-5) both have better AFC records.

Because there are so many scenarios, and newspaper space and readers' attention are not unlimited, we must turn to logic. So here goes:

We have to assume the Steelers finish the season 9-7 or there would be no reason to do this. That would eliminate Miami and reduce Baltimore to 9-7 at best. The Jets must play both the Colts and Bengals; New York is likely are to lose one and miss out. Jacksonville has to finish at New England and at Cleveland and the Jaguars also are likely to lose at least one and be done.

That would leave Tennessee, Houston, Baltimore and Denver. The Steelers would win tiebreakers over both Tennessee and Houston.

So, it could readily come down to Baltimore and Denver. If those two and the Steelers finish tied at 9-7, the Steelers and Ravens would earn the two wildcard playoff spots. In that scenario, the NFL would break the tie between the Steelers and Ravens first, because they reside in the same division. The Ravens would advance, based on their better division record.

Then, they would pit the Ravens against the Broncos and Baltimore would win because the Ravens beat Denver. The NFL would then break the tie between the Steelers and Broncos for the final playoff spot, and Denver would lose out because they lost to the Steelers this season."

This link will take you to the FULL article: Steelers' playoff hopes hinge on A over B or 2 over 3 or 1A-2B-3C

 

[Ryan]

Of all of the Wildcard contending teams, Pittsburgh is the one I'd least want to play. I know they lost 5 in a row and all that, but when it comes down to 1 game, they are the most dangerous IMO. Roethlisberger has developed into one of the truly elite QBs and if Polamalu comes back their D could be vastly improved. I'd take all of the other wildcard contenders over them as our 1st round opponent.

 

[Triggerfish]

Well, as it stands right now, there's still a LOT that needs to happen before you'd have to be concerned with facing the Steelers in the first postseason round. Most of all, the fact that Pittsburgh HAS to win out. Not gonna be an easy task against two good football teams. BUT, that being said, if they DO in fact win out, I don't think the odds against them are TERRIBLE. I could easily see each of those other teams dropping at least one of their remaining games. Only time will tell. The picture will be a whole lot clearer when the dust settles Sunday evening.

 

[upstater1]

I copied the following excerpt from an article in yesterday's Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. He explains what I've been trying to say better than I could, so here it is.


Tuesday, December 22, 2009
By Ed Bouchette, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette


"Let us begin with the easy part. The Steelers must win their final two games, Sunday against Baltimore at Heinz Field and Jan. 3 at Miami, to finish 9-7. Lose one, and they are done; no playoffs for the reigning Super Bowl champs.

The Steelers cannot win the AFC North Division, as they did the past two years, so they must secure one of two wildcard playoff spots available in the AFC to join the four division winners from the conference.

The difficult part comes trying to determine the many other scenarios. There are two potential wildcard playoff teams with better records than the Steelers, Baltimore and Denver at 8-6. Five other teams besides the Steelers stand 7-7.

They all likely will not finish with the same record, and the Steelers can eliminate the Dolphins from the equation when the two play on Jan. 3 in Miami.

If two teams tie for the final playoff spot, that is easy to determine. The first tiebreaker would be their head-to-head result. For example, if the Steelers and Denver tie, the Steelers would get the playoff nod based on their victory at Denver this season. The next tiebreaker would be best record within their division (if the two tied teams are in the same division). That's not good for the Steelers because, if they beat Baltimore Sunday and they both wind up 9-7, Baltimore gets the nod based on its better record against AFC North teams this season. If two teams tie and they are not from the same division and they did not play each other, the nod goes to the team with the best record against AFC opponents. If that, too, is tied, they look at the common games each team played and take the team with the best record against those.

Where it really becomes complicated is when three or more teams are tied for a wildcard playoff spot.

That could be good, or bad, for the Steelers because their 4-6 record in the AFC does not help if it gets to that tiebreaker. Of the 7-7 teams, Jacksonville (6-4) and the New York Jets (5-5) both have better AFC records.

Because there are so many scenarios, and newspaper space and readers' attention are not unlimited, we must turn to logic. So here goes:

We have to assume the Steelers finish the season 9-7 or there would be no reason to do this. That would eliminate Miami and reduce Baltimore to 9-7 at best. The Jets must play both the Colts and Bengals; New York is likely are to lose one and miss out. Jacksonville has to finish at New England and at Cleveland and the Jaguars also are likely to lose at least one and be done.

That would leave Tennessee, Houston, Baltimore and Denver. The Steelers would win tiebreakers over both Tennessee and Houston.

So, it could readily come down to Baltimore and Denver. If those two and the Steelers finish tied at 9-7, the Steelers and Ravens would earn the two wildcard playoff spots. In that scenario, the NFL would break the tie between the Steelers and Ravens first, because they reside in the same division. The Ravens would advance, based on their better division record.

Then, they would pit the Ravens against the Broncos and Baltimore would win because the Ravens beat Denver. The NFL would then break the tie between the Steelers and Broncos for the final playoff spot, and Denver would lose out because they lost to the Steelers this season."

This link will take you to the FULL article: Steelers' playoff hopes hinge on A over B or 2 over 3 or 1A-2B-3C

Why would the Steelers win a tiebreaker with Houston?

I don't see the point in his going through with his scenarios when he doesn't do the work of showing us what happens when a number of teams are tied.

My posts were more thorough than his.

 

[Triggerfish]

This line probably sums up his reasoning for not going too in depth.

"Because there are so many scenarios, and newspaper space and readers' attention are not unlimited..."

I'm not sure how the Steelers have that tie-breaker, but I know Tenn. would have the worst conference record and Pittsburgh and Houston would tie in conference record at 6-6. So, the tie-breaker between PIT and HOU comes after that step somewhere, possibly #4 Common games record??

 

[upstater1]

This line probably sums up his reasoning for not going too in depth.

"Because there are so many scenarios, and newspaper space and readers' attention are not unlimited..."

I'm not sure how the Steelers have that tie-breaker, but I know Tenn. would have the worst conference record and Pittsburgh and Houston would tie in conference record at 6-6. So, the tie-breaker between PIT and HOU comes after that step somewhere, possibly #4 Common games record??

Yes, but as I already wrote, Houston is 4-0 in common opponents while Pitt is 2-3, so Houston has the tie-breaker.

There are a great deal of scenarios, but it's not that hard to do if you focus on only one team, that being Pitt. Pitt hopes to be up against Denver for a tie-breaker because otherwise if another team makes it to 9-7 it gets hard for Pitt. They would need at least a Balt loss to Oak.

 

[Triggerfish]

Could it be that the common games tie-breaker doesn't apply? They've had the required 4 common opponents, TEN, OAK, CIN, MIA. However, perhaps it doesn't apply, since Houston had the opportunity to play TEN twice, and they actually SPLIT those games (one loss, one win). Could it be then that TEN doesn't count then toward the required 4 common games? I'm just grasping at straws here. I understand that you've figured it out, but why is it then that I've seen my scenerio I posted on several websites now AND it plays out that way in the simulator or generator or whatever it's called??

 

[supafly]

I copied the following excerpt from an article in yesterday's Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. He explains what I've been trying to say better than I could, so here it is. .

If two teams tie for the final playoff spot (DEN AND PIT), that is easy to determine. The first tiebreaker would be their head-to-head result.

Let me just jump back in here.

Is this not what Triggerfish and I have been saying from the get-go?

We (and many publications/media outlets much smarter than us) had this pegged days ago.

I'm not sure what the big debate is still?

Whoever is doubting this is apparently not seeing something, it was obvious that head to head would take rule over everything, but as Triggerfish says, it will become much clearer on Sunday IF Pittsburgh wins vs. BAL.

 

[Deus Irae]

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (7-7)

If The Playoffs Started Today: Out
Remaining Schedule (Projected Results): vs. Baltimore (L); at Miami (W)
Final Projected Record; Playoff Seeding: 8-8; out
Extra Point: A common theme among the 7-7s is that winning out guarantees them precisely nothing, the Steelers included. Even with a win over the Ravens, Pittsburgh would still lose the division record tiebreaker with Baltimore. Here's how the tiebreakers break down for the Steelers:

At 9-7, Pittsburgh would have a better record than the Dolphins. Pittsburgh would win tiebreaker with Titans (h2h) and Broncos (h2h); Pittsburgh would lose tiebreaker with Jaguars (conference record), Jets (conference record), Ravens (division record or h2h), and Texans (common games).

NFL Playoff Projections, Scenarios for Week 16 - Dom Bonvissuto - SI.com

 

[supafly]

There's no use worrying or trying to figure it out anymore, because we all are not seeing eye to eye for whatever reason. It could very well be a waste of time because PIT (or NE for that matter) may not even win Sunday.

We are worrying/and debating for no apparent reason. It is a big clusterf@#k and not everyone is seeing it the same way--but many people who's jobs' it is to figure this out already had at 8 o'clock on Sunday evening. I am gonna take their word over trying to come up with my own theories. I am not bright enough to say how/when/why, but the scenario seems pretty set to me.

Good luck to your team Triggerfish, and better luck to ours

 

[supafly]

NFL Playoff Projections, Scenarios for Week 16 - Dom Bonvissuto - SI.com

Thnx Deus, it's precisely what some of us have been saying since Sun. night.

I don't have the capacity of patience to figure it out or question other theories, but apparently there was a debate over complicated rules.

I am going to leave it to the experts, as I am sure they've looked at all of the angles, etc.

For anyone trying to figure it on their own, it surely will drive you nuts, and I can see why there would be mistakes. Just click on any link, and they already have it broken down, etc.

 

[Triggerfish]

Thanks for the good luck wishes, and likewise to you and your Pats. I'm not upset at anyone for disagreeing. I just kinda want to have it figured out for my own sanity (or what's left of it after THIS season). What he's saying makes sense, but I also find it hard to believe that all the other sites I've seen have it wrong. Just curious is all, since I don't really get how PITT would have the tie-breaker over HOU either. But again...none of it matters if we don't beat those damn Ratbirds THIS week! Now, do me (and the Steelers) a huge solid and take care of business with Jacksonville this week, would ya??