Your Second Tier QB Thoughts --- {Poll Added}

[stcjones]

Mond - I think he can be a starter in the future but he looks a way off. He’s a one read only guy right now and there’s no certainty he can move beyond that.

Mills - Ugh. Throws some horrible balls and far too often for my liking. Some nice passes at times, but the bad ones are really bad. He seems to get confused by two receivers running the same routes at different levels and ends up throwing between them as though he’s not sure which one he’s throwing to. And twice, I saw him miss badly on simple uncovered screen passes. He’s an interception waiting to happen.

Mond - 3rd
Mills - 4th or worse.

@Ross12 Just coincidence that my post follow yours, it’s not a response to your post. It’s just that I’ve been watching Mills and Mond this afternoon.

Mond in all mocks is a 4th or 5th....

 

[manxman2601]

Mond in all mocks is a 4th or 5th....

I remember saying Jimmie Ward was a first rounder when “all mocks” had him as a 6th rounder at best. Mocks are helpful as a guide, but ultimately one should trust their own evaluation.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I remember saying Jimmie Ward was a first rounder when “all mocks” had him as a 6th rounder at best. Mocks are helpful as a guide, but ultimately one should trust their own evaluation.

Because it worked out so well for us with Jordan Richards?

 

[manxman2601]

Because it worked out so well for us with Jordan Richards?

Well O K. Perhaps BB shouldn’t trust his own evaluation on WRs and 2nd round DBs.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Well O K. Perhaps BB shouldn’t trust his own evaluation on WRs and 2nd round DBs.

bb always follows his guts, even when the rest of the world is laughing at him.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

The Jimmy Johnson value chart is junk. If you want to move from 15 to 7 and that team knows it’s for a QB it’s gonna take a lot more draft capital than that.

The weird thing about trading future first-round picks in particular is that it's essentially the two teams making a bet: the team giving up the pick presumably thinks that taking the player a year early will push the future picks down far enough to justify the trade; the team taking the pick on presumably thinks that won't happen.

Ironically, SF made one of the worst such gambles back in 2007: they traded their 2008 1st for 1.28 in 2007, which they used on Joe Staley. It was a very good selection—he made the Pro Bowl 6×—but they stunk up the joint and gave the Patriots 1.7 the next year, and almost ended up losing 1.3.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

bb always follows his guts, even when the rest of the world is laughing at him.

He doesn't "zig" when others zag just to be contrary; he's taking what he thinks is the best "value" left on his board.

To borrow from previous posts, there is the question of why he sees value in certain situations (e.g., what's the value in trading up for Dawson when you already have Gilmore, JMac, Jones, and Jackson?), and why he seems to value certain positions so lightly (e.g., wide receiver).

 

[Lansdowne]

I rank the second tier in order of which I’d want:

Kellen Mond (looking like a borderline 1st rounder at this point)
Jamie Newman (probably would’ve been a 1st rounder if he played for Georgia last season rather than opting out)
Davis Mills (was the top QB of his recruiting class, but then again so was Jarrett Stidham)
Kyle Trask (I don’t really trust him as more than an NFL backup but he would still be a value if he’s the 9th QB off the board)

This is keeping in mind I would feel uneasy about any of these guys being our QB of the future until I saw reason to believe. These are guys I’d be comfortable replacing Stidham on the roster, but nothing more. We’d be in trouble if we had to use any of them this year. After that group I’d abandon the position entirely in this draft.

The following group are not players that I want, but ones I have a dread of BB burning a late pick on and would just end up being another Kingsbury/Etling pick:

Sam Ehlinger
Feleipe Franks
K.J. Costello

(Take everything with a grain of salt, I’m no draft expert I assure you)

 

[Boston Boxer]

I like Newman, Ian Book, and Purdy in the later rounds.

 

[patsinthesnow]

Thanks for this info. This is eye opening. Nice job no matter where you gathered the data from. Did you happen to put together anything on RD 1 QB picks for the same time period?

Round 1 hits



4 All time QBs
13 Franchise QBs
10 Acceptable Starters

Has to be updated. Josh Allen belongs in franchise qb territory & Murray/Mayfield aren't far behind.

Round 1 busts



32 busts out of 64 picks. Darnold will be joining them.

A team has roughly a 25% chance of finding "the answer" in round 1, 4% chance in rounds 2-3 & a 2% chance in rounds 4-7 (Hasselbeck, Brady & Prescott). You could argue BB could win with one of the acceptable starters though.

EDIT: You know this info is out of date when Wentz is a hit.

 

[Lansdowne]

I like Newman, Ian Book, and Purdy in the later rounds.

Purdy is returning for his senior season. Expected to be one of the top QBs in next year’s draft class.

 

[1960Pats]

I like threads like this to review after the draft… Because I could care less about these guys if they’re not on the patriots, but if we pick one then I’ll be interested in seeing what peoples’ opinions are before we draft him

That's where I stand also.

 

[Kontradiction]

Mond
Trask
Mills
Wait until 2022

That’s how I would rank them. I was high on Trask up until we played Oklahoma without Pitts. He looked pretty bad. I guess, gun to my head, I would go with Mond if he has the ability to sit a year. But I see a lot of things in his game that I don’t like. Either way, I’m hoping Lance falls and we trade up.

 

[Boston Boxer]

Purdy is returning for his senior season. Expected to be one of the top QBs in next year’s draft class.

damn, I did not know that. Good for him...I think he has a great arm and will be a great QB in the NFL

 

[Nellie]

Round 1 hits



4 All time QBs
13 Franchise QBs
10 Acceptable Starters

Has to be updated. Josh Allen belongs in franchise qb territory & Murray/Mayfield aren't far behind.

Round 1 busts



32 busts out of 64 picks. Darnold will be joining them.

A team has roughly a 25% chance of finding "the answer" in round 1, 4% chance in rounds 2-3 & a 2% chance in rounds 4-7 (Hasselbeck, Brady & Prescott). You could argue BB could win with one of the acceptable starters though.

EDIT: You know this info is out of date when Wentz is a hit.

Thank you, looks like a lot of work for you to put this together but it's very enlightening. At this point in time it looks like the SEC, ACC and PAC12 are the breeding grounds for Pro QBs.

 

[1960Pats]

All these media morons are played like fiddles.

Lynch is no idiot and Shanny Jr is pretty sharp.

However BB is immune to these BS Jedi mind tricks.

Do you think the Jones boy will be available at #15?

 

[jah]

I remember saying Jimmie Ward was a first rounder when “all mocks” had him as a 6th rounder at best. Mocks are helpful as a guide, but ultimately one should trust their own evaluation.

Was that early in the draft process? I remember Ward was projected rounds 2-3 by the time the draft rolled around, but nothing as extreme as 6th.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Do you think the Jones boy will be available at #15?

I have no freaking clue. I'm horrible at picking drafts and picking winners of games. Every team has different selection criteria and what is important to them.

What I do know is every scouting report i've read clearly ranks his talent and upside behind Lawrence, Wilson, Fields and Lance but his "NFL readiness" above Lance and maybe Fields and Wilson.

 

[1960Pats]

I have no freaking clue. I'm horrible at picking drafts and picking winners of games. Every team has different selection criteria and what is important to them.

What I do know is every scouting report i've read clearly ranks his talent and upside behind Lawrence, Wilson, Fields and Lance but his "NFL readiness" above Lance and maybe Fields and Wilson.

I have no clue on players since I don't watch anything from the NCAA other than golf.
I have a pretty good system for picking NYFL games though.

 

[manxman2601]

Was that early in the draft process? I remember Ward was projected rounds 2-3 by the time the draft rolled around, but nothing as extreme as 6th.

Actually he was more of a 7th rounder at the time and yes it was early. Jimmie and Terron Armstead were probably my two biggest successes in terms of finding good prospects before the draft pundit class did.