Why does 1st round pick Sony Michel play like a jag?

[Scotty]

Just watched some Sony highlights on youtube from the Raiders game... if we can get some consistency then nothing wrong here ? The RB crew did well yesterday and Harris has still to come back. Very impressed with Burkehead and I was one who doubted his ability the last couple of years , ah well wrong again ....lol

 

[Bill Lee]

Michel made at least four Raiders look bad on this play:

 

[Teej]

a runner needs healthy knees...

 

[Wozzy]

What they actually need to do is run effectively enough to make the defense sell out for the run to then throw passes against a weakened pass defense. You have to be able to both run and throw. Good offenses employ there strength to make the defense over commit to it, and therefore allow their weakness to have an advantage. The result causes them to look balanced and the defense is off balance.

Really good playoff defenses are going to be able to stop the run, at that point you have to be able to beat them from the pocket.

It's why Lamar Jackson was the league MVP last season and gets bounced in the first round two years in a row. It's why Mike Vick started 5 playoff games in his entire career, was 2-3 and never advanced to the Super Bowl.

I agree a great offense should be balanced, a great defense can only be countered with great offense... but at the end of the day it comes down to who can pass well from the pocket and who can defend it.

 

[Wozzy]

a runner needs healthy knees...

Sony only has another year and half left on his contract. What he does after that is irrelevant unless he-re-signs with New England.

They won't give anyone a monster contract at the RB position in NE... because they don't last.

 

[203Pat]

I think given that Michel looks like he can catch passes, and was given that opportunity because White was out, I think play-calling by MickeyD is more of a factor than Michel not having the actual skills as a pass catcher. When White is available seems Michel was relegated to a narrow predictable set of run-only packages. This may not be Michel's fault but rather the play calling. And then we backwards rationalize, that Michel can't pass catch. When he clearly can.

.

What is it that makes you think he "clearly can" catches passes? His 21 career catches or his 167 career receiving yards? I doubt Josh has been watching him tear it up in the passing game in practice for the last three years and then deciding there is no need for that on Sundays.

 

[catent]

Really glad to see some of the traits Sony displayed: vision, good cuts, explosiveness. I still want to see him shed some weight and gain some top-end speed. If he can get down to his playing weight at UGA (which I'm guessing is 10-15 lbs lighter than he is now) I think he could be a consistently really good player.

 

[Ring 6]

Really good playoff defenses are going to be able to stop the run, at that point you have to be able to beat them from the pocket.

It's why Lamar Jackson was the league MVP last season and gets bounced in the first round two years in a row. It's why Mike Vick started 5 playoff games in his entire career, was 2-3 and never advanced to the Super Bowl.

I agree a great offense should be balanced, a great defense can only be countered with great offense... but at the end of the day it comes down to who can pass well from the pocket and who can defend it.

You aren’t going to turn Newton into something he’s not.
Sure playoff teams are more likely to be tougher against the run. They are also more likely to exploit a QB who isn’t good at throwing from the pocket. If this team comes out throwing because it’s afraid it can’t run, it’s not going to last long.
Baltimore running backs ran the ball
9 times in that game for 42 yards, Jackson ran 20 for 143. They didn’t lose because they ran into a team that could shut down their run, the lost because they threw it 59 times. They did exactly what you are suggesting instead of sticking with strength to open up weakness.
Vick never played on a team that was any good so he doesn’t really apply plus he couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn.
Newton is who he is. Hoping he is something else isn’t going to change that. If the run is stopped we will struggle most of the time. All the more reason to commit to it and use it to set up pass opportunities.

 

[Wozzy]

You aren’t going to turn Newton into something he’s not.
Sure playoff teams are more likely to be tougher against the run. They are also more likely to exploit a QB who isn’t good at throwing from the pocket. If this team comes out throwing because it’s afraid it can’t run, it’s not going to last long.
Baltimore running backs ran the ball
9 times in that game for 42 yards, Jackson ran 20 for 143. They didn’t lose because they ran into a team that could shut down their run, the lost because they threw it 59 times. They did exactly what you are suggesting instead of sticking with strength to open up weakness.
Vick never played on a team that was any good so he doesn’t really apply plus he couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn.
Newton is who he is. Hoping he is something else isn’t going to change that. If the run is stopped we will struggle most of the time. All the more reason to commit to it and use it to set up pass opportunities.

Ravens lost because the Titans stopped them and made them play from behind, not dissimilar to the Seahawks stopping New England's rushing attack and forcing Cam to pass. A season high 44 pass attempts for Cam at Seattle wasn't because they planned it that way.

 

[203Pat]

Sorry, but it seems you have a lot invested in a lot of narratives, and you're making yourself unhappy if not miserable for no reason.

I'm sure no one working for the Patriots said Sony was supposed to be special, that kind of stuff comes from mediots. Some times the 31st pick turns out to be special, some times they don't. Some times sixth round picks like the GOAT turn out to be special. We have a UDFA running back that looks great, and a UDFA DB too. According to a player rating service, the best player we had on the field yesterday was our 6th round LT. This should be all the evidence you need to see that there is at best a loose correlation between draft position and performance, especially with this team.

The draft is largely media hype. They have a lot of airwaves to fill in the off season so it gets a lot more attention than it is worth. The "experts" can maybe get the first three to five picks right, then the predictive ability gets worse pick by pick. Look how many "mock drafts" aren't worth the time spent on them. Yet they have three days of airwaves to fill, not to mention countless hours beforehand, so they continue to generate a lot of stuff that evidence shows is going to be wrong, just to make it look like there's a cause and effect relationship in place when there really isn't one.

In short, your mental model of the importance of draft position does not match up well with reality. As I wrote, you'd be a lot happier if you just appreciate the players for who they are and what they do rather than fixate on their draft position.

I don't know about you but Sony Michel's productivity or lack thereof doesn't really affect my overall outlook on life outside of three hours on Sundays. So you're telling me that Bill and Josh were sitting in the war room in 2018 with hundreds of players to choose from and they decided to pick Michel at 31 so they could have a run of the mill, average running back? Especially at a position where they normally don't invest much if anything to get? Bill and Josh sat there an said "well this is a position where we traditionally get average production out of from guys we trade practice squad players for or sign to futures contracts but this time why don't we try an match that average production out of a first round pick instead?". That is just asinine to say they didn't think he would be special when they invested a first round pick into him.

The draft is far more than "media hype". It is the most important and financially responsible way to build a roster. I don't know what the experts or the media have to do with Sony not being anything better than an average RB. You want to pick difference makers in round one and the media has nothing to do with that.

 

[Wozzy]

delete

 

[Jlaff]

Michel made at least four Raiders look bad on this play:

Good run. Still got tackled by a linebacker he had a 10 yard lead on.

 

[Wozzy]

Good run. Still got tackled by a linebacker he had a 10 yard lead on.

He was bracketed by two defensive backs ahead of him and a blocker, so he slowed down to see if he could use his blocker to get free, he obviously couldn't see the linebacker coming from behind. He should be commended for holding onto the ball after the linebacker slammed down hard on his hand in an attempt to strip him.

Sony haters are really reaching today...

 

[203Pat]

He was bracketed by two defensive backs ahead of him and a blocker, so he slowed down to see if he could use his blocker to get free, he obviously couldn't see the linebacker coming from behind. He should be commended for holding onto the ball after the linebacker slammed down hard on his hand in an attempt to strip him.

Sony haters are really reaching today...

It was a great run with great vision to get him to the next level but there is zero percent chance he was going to out run anyone no matter what he was doing. He is a plodder.

 

[Jlaff]

He was bracketed by two defensive backs ahead of him and a blocker, so he slowed down to see if he could use his blocker to get free, he obviously couldn't see the linebacker coming from behind. He should be commended for holding onto the ball after the linebacker slammed down hard on his hand in an attempt to strip him.

Sony haters are really reaching today...

Tom Brady could run this guy down in an open field. I also said it was a good run.

 

[Wozzy]

It was a great run with great vision to get him to the next level but there is zero percent chance he was going to out run anyone no matter what he was doing. He is a plodder.

Sony ran a 4.5 forty at the combine, hardly plodding. David Johnson, Nick Chubb ran 4.5's as well, are they plodding, Lev Bell ran a 4.6, is he lightning fast?

Absurd...

 

[Bill Lee]

I don't know about you but Sony Michel's productivity or lack thereof doesn't really affect my overall outlook on life outside of three hours on Sundays.

It seems to be affecting your overall outlook right now, and it's not Sunday.

So you're telling me that Bill and Josh were sitting in the war room in 2018 with hundreds of players to choose from and they decided to pick Michel at 31 so they could have a run of the mill, average running back?

No, but the one thing they weren't saying is "we're picking 31 therefore we know he's going to be special" nor if they were picking 33rd they wouldn't say "shoot, he's not a first rounder so he's not gonna be special".

Especially at a position where they normally don't invest much if anything to get? Bill and Josh sat there an said "well this is a position where we traditionally get average production out of from guys we trade practice squad players for or sign to futures contracts but this time why don't we try an match that average production out of a first round pick instead?".

In other words, you don't have any evidence they said he was going to be special and you're creating this narrative yourself.

That is just asinine to say they didn't think he would be special when they invested a first round pick into him.

BB has been a coach going back forty years and has seen plenty of first rounders that did not turn out to be special, it's asinine to suggest otherwise.

The draft is far more than "media hype". It is the most important and financially responsible way to build a roster. I don't know what the experts or the media have to do with Sony not being anything better than an average RB. You want to pick difference makers in round one and the media has nothing to do with that.

You want to pick difference makers in EVERY round, but they're all projections. As you said we have UDFAs making a difference so if your world view was correct they'd just be every day players and the GOAT should also be at best a JAG.

What I wrote was "The draft is largely media hype". Selecting players is simple. In the old days they did it in a motel conference room and were able to get it over with in a fraction of the time. Now they could do it online and get it over with even quicker, but there's a lot of airwaves to fill. Part and parcel of that is making every draft pick seem more significant than it really is.

The media hype comes in when people suggest a 31st pick is going to be better than a 33rd pick because one is a first rounder and the other is not. It's nonsense. Yet it makes it easier for the media to generate click bait, so that's what we're stuck with.

 

[Triumph]

You aren’t going to turn Newton into something he’s not.
Sure playoff teams are more likely to be tougher against the run. They are also more likely to exploit a QB who isn’t good at throwing from the pocket. If this team comes out throwing because it’s afraid it can’t run, it’s not going to last long.
Baltimore running backs ran the ball
9 times in that game for 42 yards, Jackson ran 20 for 143. They didn’t lose because they ran into a team that could shut down their run, the lost because they threw it 59 times. They did exactly what you are suggesting instead of sticking with strength to open up weakness.
Vick never played on a team that was any good so he doesn’t really apply plus he couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn.
Newton is who he is. Hoping he is something else isn’t going to change that. If the run is stopped we will struggle most of the time. All the more reason to commit to it and use it to set up pass opportunities.

Cam can pass the ball.

 

[Zuma]

IMO Sony is 10-15 lbs heavier and was moving great yesterday...he should keep that weight on. He just needs to keep getting a few receptions a game for that running success to continue.

 

[Bill Lee]

Good run. Still got tackled by a linebacker he had a 10 yard lead on.

Give me a break. He's running diagonally and trying to take advantage of downfield blocking, while the linebacker is running straight downfield without any obstacles.