Why does 1st round pick Sony Michel play like a jag?

[203Pat]

Sony ran a 4.5 forty at the combine, hardly plodding. David Johnson, Nick Chubb ran 4.5's as well, are they plodding, Lev Bell ran a 4.6, is he lightning fast?

Absurd...

Yes and look at them run (in their prime) compared to Sony who is supposed to be in his prime now. David Johnson was electric for a year and a half and rarely got ran down from behind. Leveon Bell broke off numerous long TD runs or pass receptions and was equally as electric in his prime. Nick Chubb has back to back years with 80+ yard TD's. There is no way you can honestly watch Sony run and tell me he looks anywhere near as fast or elusive as these guys...

 

[Wozzy]

Cam can pass the ball.

Cam Newton has played 35 games in his career where he had to throw over 35 passes, his record in those games is 9-26. A large majority of those games, his completion percentage was hovering around 50-58% completion rate. The one game with above 70% completions came with Norv Turner in 2018.

Using scheme they can make him an efficient passer, but they have to limit the amount of passing and/or use screens and gadget plays to make it work. Edelman can pass the ball, it doesn't make him an accurate passer.

I don’t know how feasible it will be to win in the playoffs using this method, it will largely depend on health and how good they are in all three phases. There is also the possibility Josh and Bill simply make him a better passer all around, it’s unlikely but not unheard of. Less accurate passers like Flacco had stretches where they were more accurate, but again scheme plays a large part in that.

 

[Wozzy]

Yes and look at them run (in their prime) compared to Sony who is supposed to be in his prime now. David Johnson was electric for a year and a half and rarely got ran down from behind. Leveon Bell broke off numerous long TD runs or pass receptions and was equally as electric in his prime. Nick Chubb has back to back years with 80+ yard TD's. There is no way you can honestly watch Sony run and tell me he looks anywhere near as fast or elusive as these guys...

Oh please, these are highlights of RB's running untouched with nobody in front of them. Sony had two defensive backs ahead of him.

I also compared Sony to three of the best backs in the NFL (still in their prime)... that's completely lost on you.

 

[Triumph]

That was the play that led to this...



And Harry was correct and Romo stated it in the broadcast, Cam should have made the easier wide open throw to Harry underneath, he almost got Edelman killed. Thing is... I think he may have been throwing to Harry and let it sail, I don't know.

I believe Cams pass was intended for Edelman. Cam was forcing the ball to Edelman all day. On a different play Cam threw into triple coverage and Edelman damn near caught it, but he paid a price.

 

[Wozzy]

I believe Cams pass was intended for Edelman. Cam was forcing the ball to Edelman all day. On a different play Cam threw into triple coverage and Edelman damn near caught it, but he paid a price.

Romo literally said in the broadcast Cam should have taken the easier completion underneath to a wide open Harry.

Cam's not accurate, fundamentally sound nor does he always make the right decision. He's not vintage Brady who will place it in the receiver's hands or put it where only the receiver can catch it, Cam will place the ball within a three foot radius and the receiver will have to make a play.

 

[203Pat]

It seems to be affecting your overall outlook right now, and it's not Sunday.


No, but the one thing they weren't saying is "we're picking 31 therefore we know he's going to be special" nor if they were picking 33rd they wouldn't say "shoot, he's not a first rounder so he's not gonna be special".


In other words, you don't have any evidence they said he was going to be special and you're creating this narrative yourself.


BB has been a coach going back forty years and has seen plenty of first rounders that did not turn out to be special, it's asinine to suggest otherwise.


You want to pick difference makers in EVERY round, but they're all projections. As you said we have UDFAs making a difference so if your world view was correct they'd just be every day players and the GOAT should also be at best a JAG.

What I wrote was "The draft is largely media hype". Selecting players is simple. In the old days they did it in a motel conference room and were able to get it over with in a fraction of the time. Now they could do it online and get it over with even quicker, but there's a lot of airwaves to fill. Part and parcel of that is making every draft pick seem more significant than it really is.

The media hype comes in when people suggest a 31st pick is going to be better than a 33rd pick because one is a first rounder and the other is not. It's nonsense. Yet it makes it easier for the media to generate click bait, so that's what we're stuck with.

I don't really know what to say to you if you think they sit there and just pick guys that they don't think will be special. No one is saying there is a magical cutoff at 31 to 33 for special players but it's not like they just took a flier on a guy they hoped would pan out. They thought he would be a better player than a large portion of the draft. He isn't. You can twist it all around however you want but there is no way that Bill/Josh/Nick/any other GM in the league make that pick there if they had it to do over again.

 

[Ring 6]

Ravens lost because the Titans stopped them and made them play from behind, not dissimilar to the Seahawks stopping New England's rushing attack and forcing Cam to pass. A season high 44 pass attempts for Cam at Seattle wasn't because they planned it that way.

First drive they drove from the -20 to the +32 with 5 runs and 1 pass. Then Jackson threw a pick.
the second the went fir a 4th and 1.
At halftime they were firm 1 score.
if they stick with run they would have won, it at least had a better chance.

 

[203Pat]

Oh please, these are highlights of RB's running untouched with nobody in front of them. Sony had two defensive backs ahead of him.

I also compared Sony to three of the best backs in the NFL (still in their prime)... that's completely lost on you.

Pause the Chubb video at the 5 second mark. He is at the 19 yard line with two defensive backs in front of him (one of them being Earl Thomas) he runs by them. That's why they aren't ahead of him anymore. It is pretty simple so I am not sure how you can miss the point.

Chubb is good. Chubb is elusive. Chubb ran by the defensive backs and scored.

Sony is average. Sony is not very elusive. Sony made a nice move at the LOS then immediately was ran down by a LB who would have caught him regardless of DB's in front of him that he couldn't outrun.

 

[Triumph]

Cam Newton has played 35 games in his career where he had to throw over 35 passes, his record in those games is 9-26. A large majority of those games, his completion percentage was hovering around 50-58% completion rate. The one game with above 70% completions came with Norv Turner in 2018.

Using scheme they can make him an efficient passer, but they have to limit the amount of passing and/or use screens and gadget plays to make it work. Edelman can pass the ball, it doesn't make him an accurate passer.

I don’t know how feasible it will be to win in the playoffs using this method, it will largely depend on health and how good they are in all three phases. There is also the possibility Josh and Bill simply make him a better passer all around, it’s unlikely but not unheard of. Less accurate passers like Flacco had stretches where they were more accurate, but again scheme plays a large part in that.

Cam is a 71% accuracy percentage QB right now. 11th ranked per Football Outsiders. 2020 NFL QUARTERBACK RATINGS | Football Outsiders

Whats dragged Cams ranking down is the lack of passing TDs. Those will come as the offense gets into rhythm. Harry has shown great hands when given a look. Cam passed the daylights out of the ball to a receiving RB in Carolina by the name of McCafferty. James White can play that role too. Im waiting for Keane because I believe that he is going to be a Kelce like TE/WR. Its still too early to know what NE has in the passing game.

Perhaps BB is waiting to see how this group works out before pulling a trade of a FA WR who will give the Pass offense a shot in the arm.

 

[Ring 6]

Cam can pass the ball.

Not at an average or above Nfl level.
Yes he can throw it better than you.
His throws yesterday were horrendous until he was coached to only make east throws.
that’s his game. Create the dual threat to free up receivers for easy throws and in obvious passing situations run around so someone has time to get open.
Can he complete a 17 yard in dripping back into the pocket out of 4 wides, yes, but at a terribly lower rate than an average throwing NFL QB.
The patriots are fine though, they know his strengths and weaknesses and are the best there is at using the strengths and hiding the weaknesses.

 

[Ring 6]

Yes and look at them run (in their prime) compared to Sony who is supposed to be in his prime now. David Johnson was electric for a year and a half and rarely got ran down from behind. Leveon Bell broke off numerous long TD runs or pass receptions and was equally as electric in his prime. Nick Chubb has back to back years with 80+ yard TD's. There is no way you can honestly watch Sony run and tell me he looks anywhere near as fast or elusive as these guys...

You can’t think those are comparable situations

 

[Triumph]

Not at an average or above Nfl level.
Yes he can throw it better than you.
His throws yesterday were horrendous until he was coached to only make east throws.
that’s his game. Create the dual threat to free up receivers for easy throws and in obvious passing situations run around so someone has time to get open.
Can he complete a 17 yard in dripping back into the pocket out of 4 wides, yes, but at a terribly lower rate than an average throwing NFL QB.
The patriots are fine though, they know his strengths and weaknesses and are the best there is at using the strengths and hiding the weaknesses.

71% accuracy 2020 NFL QUARTERBACK RATINGS | Football Outsiders

11th ranked passing and 1st ranked rushing. This is like complaining because somebody farted in your yard.

 

[203Pat]

You can’t think those are comparable situations

No one said they are complete apples to apples. I didn't even bring up Bell, Chubb, or Johnson but they are all running backs who are supposed to be comparable speed wise based off 40 times. It clearly isn't the case.

 

[Wozzy]

First drive they drove from the -20 to the +32 with 5 runs and 1 pass. Then Jackson threw a pick.
the second the went fir a 4th and 1.
At halftime they were firm 1 score.
if they stick with run they would have won, it at least had a better chance.

Because Jackson threw a pick on his only pass attempt on that first drive... I'm struggling to see your point now.

Once you're down 14 points, then 14-6 at the half, then 28-6 in the third... you can't run your way back into a game, you have to pass.

In two playoff games Lamar Jackson is 0-2, has completed 51% of his passes at a measly 6.3 yards per attempt with three interceptions and four fumbles.

Great defenses will find a way to force you to play from behind, thereby force you to pass, to make you play to their strength.

 

[Wozzy]

Cam is a 71% accuracy percentage QB right now. 11th ranked per Football Outsiders. 2020 NFL QUARTERBACK RATINGS | Football Outsiders

Whats dragged Cams ranking down is the lack of passing TDs. Those will come as the offense gets into rhythm. Harry has shown great hands when given a look. Cam passed the daylights out of the ball to a receiving RB in Carolina by the name of McCafferty. James White can play that role too. Im waiting for Keane because I believe that he is going to be a Kelce like TE/WR. Its still too early to know what NE has in the passing game.

Perhaps BB is waiting to see how this group works out before pulling a trade of a FA WR who will give the Pass offense a shot in the arm.

Through 3 games Cam ranks 23rd in attempts, they don't pass a lot for a couple reasons, one because they don't have to and two because they know not to. Cams not overly accurate, you don't want to have to pass a lot. They had to against Seattle because they were behind.

 

[Wozzy]

Pause the Chubb video at the 5 second mark. He is at the 19 yard line with two defensive backs in front of him (one of them being Earl Thomas) he runs by them. That's why they aren't ahead of him anymore. It is pretty simple so I am not sure how you can miss the point.

Chubb is good. Chubb is elusive. Chubb ran by the defensive backs and scored.

Sony is average. Sony is not very elusive. Sony made a nice move at the LOS then immediately was ran down by a LB who would have caught him regardless of DB's in front of him that he couldn't outrun.

Chubb is arguably the best runner in the NFL, he's incredibly strong. Chubb weighs 235 pounds to Sony's 215. Chubb is a better runner due to sheer size and strength alone, they share a similar top speed and elusiveness.

Sony was drafted first because New England lost Dion Lewis, needed someone who could provide starting snaps immediately, because he was a superior pass blocker and receiver to Chubb and the Patriots QB was a cranky 41 year old... they couldn't afford to get him hurt or piss him off.

Pass blocking mattered to the Patriots more than it mattered to the lowly Browns, there's a reason the Browns lose.

 

[Bill Lee]

I don't really know what to say to you if you think they sit there and just pick guys that they don't think will be special.

That's because you aren't willing to say this idea that first rounders need to be special is a narrative that you've created for yourself and you're clinging to.

We don't have a lot of info on how BB picks RBs but this is what we do have:





So he's looking for a tough inside runner, ball catching, blitz pickup, blocking, overall intelligence. Note he doesn't talk about "burst" like so many here say, or "elusiveness". He even says NOT HAVE TO BE A RUNNER NECESSARILY. He's just looking for good overall football players that can fill roles. If one happens to be "special", be it in the first round or the sixth round or UDFA, so be it.

No one is saying there is a magical cutoff at 31 to 33 for special players but it's not like they just took a flier on a guy they hoped would pan out. '

You're the one that raised this specialness needed by first rounders thing, it's on you to show it exists.

They thought he would be a better player than a large portion of the draft. He isn't.

You don't seem to have a good grasp on what they look for in a RB and you certainly don't know what their opinion of what he's doing relative to what they expected from him is.

You can twist it all around however you want but there is no way that Bill/Josh/Nick/any other GM in the league make that pick there if they had it to do over again.

Let us know when GMs are issued time machines so they can go back in time and do things all over again. Till then this is a nonsense statement.

 

[203Pat]

That's because you aren't willing to say this idea that first rounders need to be special is a narrative that you've created for yourself and you're clinging to.

We don't have a lot of info on how BB picks RBs but this is what we do have:



View attachment 28750

So he's looking for a tough inside runner, ball catching, blitz pickup, blocking, overall intelligence. Note he doesn't talk about "burst" like so many here say, or "elusiveness". He even says NOT HAVE TO BE A RUNNER NECESSARILY. He's just looking for good overall football players that can fill roles. If one happens to be "special", be it in the first round or the sixth round or UDFA, so be it.


You're the one that raised this specialness needed by first rounders thing, it's on you to show it exists.


You don't seem to have a good grasp on what they look for in a RB and you certainly don't know what their opinion of what he's doing relative to what they expected from him is.


Let us know when GMs are issued time machines so they can go back in time and do things all over again. Till then this is a nonsense statement.

Okay you're right the draft is a useless construct overhyped by the media. Bill really doesn't care if a guy he takes in the first round is no better than a player he could have signed as an UDFA. Your scouting report from 1991 (that doesn't even describe the type of back Sony is) certainly earns you the win here. Congratulations but I cannot waste any more time debating over whether Bill actually wants to draft good players in round one.

 

[Bill Lee]

Quotes from right after the Michel pick:

​

Patriots director of player personnel Nick Caserio addressed that apparent shift in philosophy after the first round concluded.​

​

“Look, our responsibility is just to pick good football players. That’s the most important thing,” Caserio said. “We think he’s a good football player so we picked the player. He’s got pretty good skills. He’s athletic. He’s good in space. He’s a strong runner for his size, 210-215 pounds, whatever he is. Our thing is to pick good football players who have good traits. However they get here, they get here. He gets the same opportunity when he gets here, so regardless of where they’re picked. We liked the player so we went ahead and picked him.”​

​

Clearly, Michel’s mind-set and approach fits in well with the Patriots, and as Caserio explained, that factors in to some of these draft decisions.​

​

“Everything goes in – the traits, I would say, the football traits a player possesses are very important, especially for our program. I mean we want smart, tough football players – mentally tough, physically tough – that are going to have to go through the rigors of our program and our going to work,” Caserio explained. “They’re going to get up, they’re going to come back the next day. Are they going to be able to do it again and be able to sustain it over the course of a long period of time? So a player’s ability to do that, it’s hard to measure but you try to put that all together as one but those football traits are pretty important, especially around here because we ask a lot of our players and our players work their tails off.”​

​

Caserio continued: “The expectation is when a rookie comes in, yeah he’s far behind but is he going to work? Is he going to take the coaching? Is he going to improve? Is he going to go back? Is he going to study? OK, the next day is he going to come back? Is he going to do the same thing? Is he going to develop a routine for himself? So a player’s ability to do that is going to give him at least a chance to be competitive, whether or not that means he’s going to be successful, I mean that’s a whole separate conversation because your performance on the field in the end is the most important thing. But those football traits and those football characteristics from that perspective are pretty important.”​

Ref: Bill Belichick Alters Course With Sony Michel Pick In First Round

I'm not seeing the kind of "we picked him in the first round therefore we expect him to be special" stuff I'm told has to be there. It's just the "he's a pretty good football player" and "he gets the same opportunity when he gets here, so regardless of where they're picked". And that's how it works in the real world. The proof is the same stuff you cite, UDFAs and 6th rounders make it onto our team all the time.

 

[Bill Lee]

Okay you're right the draft is a useless construct overhyped by the media. Bill really doesn't care if a guy he takes in the first round is no better than a player he could have signed as an UDFA. Your scouting report from 1991 (that doesn't even describe the type of back Sony is) certainly earns you the win here. Congratulations but I cannot waste any more time debating over whether Bill actually wants to draft good players in round one.

What I just posted from Nick Caserio is very consistent with what I've been saying all along. You're the one spreading the "he's a first rounder so he has to be special" stuff, it's up to you to provide proof of such. The rest of it is you twisting things around to try to save a losing narrative.