What's Edelman worth?

[Brady6]

Edelman had a great year, but I think $4M a year is the right amount, and anything over $5M is ridiculous. I'd probably go 4-5 years for $16-$20M, $10M guaranteed, and backload his deal so his salary the first two years is under $2M but give him a $4-5M signing bonus to amortize over the life of the contract.

Not that I disagree with your evaluation; but tell me how exactly the team is going to convince Edelman and his agent that despite Edelman being a more effective, talented and younger player than Amendola he should take a lesser contract than the team gave Amendola just 1 season before?

Edelman's numbers are the definition of deceptive though. He stepped up this year amidst a sea of injured and novice players and proved he is a viable NFL receiver. But if BB is planning on him being our number one receiver next year, forget Christmas, our goose will be cooked in the preseason.

Edelman caught 105/151 targeted passes equaling 69.5% in 2013 there was nothing misleading about his stats, misleading would have been if he caught 105 but it took 250 targeted passes to get him there. If anything the lack of weapons made him a bigger focus of the defenses and matched him up against the other team’s top DBs more often. I am not sure where you look up your definitions but you might want to consider a new dictionary.

Also once again keep in mind that the Patriots set the market in 2013 for 27-28 year old slot receivers when they gave Amendola his deal, if you take a look at the Rams roster Amendola was not exactly taking the field with Johnson Jr. and AJ Green on the outside.

The person of the shoes he filled, Welker, is a perfect example: when he was with us, our top receiver, number 2/3 receiving option. With the Broncos, number 3 receiver, number 4 receiving option.

Demaryius Thomas – 16 games, 143 targets, 8.93 targets per game
Eric Decker – 16 games, 137 targets, 8.56 targets per game
Wes Welker – 13 games, 110 targets, 8.46 targets per game
Julius Thomas – 14 games, 89 targets, 6.35 targets per game

Unless Manning called you and told you he looks at Welker 4th I don’t really see how you concluded he is their 4th option. Welker left 2 of his 13 games early and was within 4/10s of the targets per game of D. Thomas and Decker and more than 2 ahead of J. Thomas.

I also really like the idea of having two starting-quality receivers at the most physically demanding receiver position.

I like the idea as well but if Edelman wants a contract like Amendola’s which I see no reason why he wouldn’t considering he has proven to be better than him how can the Patriots commit nearly $12 million per year to the slot WR? Maybe we can do it for a 2014 but if we resign Edelman then you can basically stamp Amendola’s bus ticket out of town at the conclusion of 2014 when his cap number is not so impossible.

 

[Brady6]

Edelman will be an interesting situation. He has every right to demand more than what the Pats paid for Amendola - and MAY hold the Pats to that standard. Some other team MAY offer him that, but I hope they realize this guy has had ONE healthy year. Yes, he had a couple PROMISING years, but they ended early with injury or injuries. He is a PURE gamble - whether it is the Pats or some other team. There will be more interest in him, but I am not so sure it will be for BIG bucks. Edelman SHOWED his potential, but has he TRULY gotten past his injury-filled past?

We set the market when we gave Amendola 5 years and $30 million last season, and he had ZERO healthy seasons with 100+ catches and 1000+ yards. The Amendola contract screws us both with Amendola and with Edelman because it is hard to argue with an agent against a contract value that you set the market for 1 season before with a less productive player.

 

[chasa]

i don't see the pats spending more then 2.5 million total on new receivers next year, that's FA/draft combined

 

[RIpats88]

im sure Edelman is going to want amendola money....BUT is any team willing to give it to him?

he had a great year...BUT it's his first healthy season. and the first season where he really showed he could be a legit receiver.

I just dont see some team breaking the bank for edelman.

 

[Bhelmet]

I would sign Sanders over Edelman, if possible. He has a better health track record and, with Brady, could (IMO) at least match Edelman's output if he learns the system (must not be too big of an issue if they were interested last year). I LOVE what Julian has done, but I would NOT overpay for this guy. He could have another 100 catch season, OR he could have a season-ending injury in training camp. For me, he has to have 1 more healthy year before I would consider paying him decent money. Like Brady6 wrote - we screwed ourselves by paying for Amendola - Edelman is gone and hopefully next year Amendola can pull an Edelman.

 

[Jackson 2]

im sure Edelman is going to want amendola money....BUT is any team willing to give it to him?

he had a great year...BUT it's his first healthy season. and the first season where he really showed he could be a legit receiver.

I just dont see some team breaking the bank for edelman.

Those seeking his services won't have to break the bank for Edelman. They'll just have to offer him fair market value for a guy who did what he did this year. When that performance is rolled into his punt returning numbers, it becomes clear that he is a hell of an offensive force.

 

[Bhelmet]

fair market value for a guy who did what he did this year.

OK - he had an AWESOME year - his ONE healthy year - you want to pay "fair market value" for a guy after ONE year - he stands where he stands statistically and production-wise for ONE year. Want to give him 3-4 years? How many of THOSE years will he be healthy? I don't know either - not sure I want to spend super millions on someone that has me come to that answer. I'm no owner, but I bet MOST of them look at his situation along lines similar to this.

 

[Archeryaddict12]

Those seeking his services won't have to break the bank for Edelman. They'll just have to offer him fair market value for a guy who did what he did this year. When that performance is rolled into his punt returning numbers, it becomes clear that he is a hell of an offensive force.

When healthy

So many want to write amendola off, guess what, him and amendola have only had 2 healthy seasons.

 

[OhExaulted1]

The Truth is, he's Worth more than Amendola.

The Reality is, when all's said and done, he'll sign elsewhere and won't even net us a comp pick.

 

[SalemPats]

I would sign Sanders over Edelman, if possible. He has a better health track record and, with Brady, could (IMO) at least match Edelman's output if he learns the system (must not be too big of an issue if they were interested last year). I LOVE what Julian has done, but I would NOT overpay for this guy. He could have another 100 catch season, OR he could have a season-ending injury in training camp. For me, he has to have 1 more healthy year before I would consider paying him decent money. Like Brady6 wrote - we screwed ourselves by paying for Amendola - Edelman is gone and hopefully next year Amendola can pull an Edelman.

Edelman was 4th in receptions and 21st in yards receiving. In the last 8 games (including playoffs) he was top 5 in both. He'll get money somewhere and he's better than Sanders and Amendola.

Also Amendola showed that he can't do what Edelman did.

 

[stinebot]

I would sign Sanders over Edelman, if possible. He has a better health track record and, with Brady, could (IMO) at least match Edelman's output if he learns the system (must not be too big of an issue if they were interested last year). I LOVE what Julian has done, but I would NOT overpay for this guy. He could have another 100 catch season, OR he could have a season-ending injury in training camp. For me, he has to have 1 more healthy year before I would consider paying him decent money. Like Brady6 wrote - we screwed ourselves by paying for Amendola - Edelman is gone and hopefully next year Amendola can pull an Edelman.

I would not sign Sanders over Edelman. Sure, Sanders might end up better. But Edelman is a known quantity. We know he knows the system. We know he works well with Brady. We know Brady trusts him. With Sanders all of those things are guesses and hopes about what might be, or might never be. We have brought in other WRs with the hopes they would contribute and they don't even last a season. For every Randy Moss there's a Doug Gabriel.

Any player might have a season ending injury in training camp or very early in the season. Teams would never sign anyone if their concern was "he might tear an ACL in training camp". So that's not a valid reason to not bring Edelman back.

I am not debating that at this point the contract given Amendola looks like that money could have been spent better elsewhere. But Amendola was also been less than 100% for the entire season. He looked good in preseason. Brady was throwing to him and he was making catches that made him look like Welker 2.0. Then he got hurt and he was not the same for the rest of the year. Next season, he may well be back to what we thought we signed last off season and all of a sudden nobody will be lamenting the contract he got. Either way, in my opinion we need to make every effort to keep Edelman. WR on the Pats is not exactly a plug and play situation and when a guy works it's foolish to let him move on because you'd rather sign another guy for the same money or half a million less.

 

[Jackson 2]

OK - he had an AWESOME year - his ONE healthy year - you want to pay "fair market value" for a guy after ONE year - he stands where he stands statistically and production-wise for ONE year. Want to give him 3-4 years? How many of THOSE years will he be healthy? I don't know either - not sure I want to spend super millions on someone that has me come to that answer. I'm no owner, but I bet MOST of them look at his situation along lines similar to this.

You seemingly didn't read what I wrote. I didn't suggest the Pats pay or not pay. I said that someone will pay him fair market value. If it isn't NE it'll be someone else. If you're uncomfortable paying him fair market value, that's your decision. I'm just saying I would. But I feel comfortable believing this: having Brady's favorite target go again this year might not be a great idea. I was OK with Wuss Welker choosing to leave (and despite what his apologists say he could have stayed here for more $$), but if Edelman leaves Brady will have no one other than a returning Gronk as a reliable target. The choice is theirs.

 

[Brady6]

Personally, I feel that many GMs are going to look at the slot market and realize that all of Cruz, Welker, and Amendola were overpaid and overvalued as it was already last offseason. If people want to argue the fact that someone may overpay and offer Edelman a pact worth 75% of Amendola/Welker's recent pacts, then I can understand that, but this thinking that he's somehow going to command top dollar as this 6-7-8 million dollar receiver is practically ridiculous--at least in my opinion anyway.

Player A
• Age: 27
• Years Pro: 5
• Height: 5’11”
• Weight: 183
• 40 Yard Dash: 4.68
• 20 Yard Dash: 2.65
• 10 Yard Dash: 1.51
• 225 Lb. Bench Reps: 13
• Vertical Jump: 27 1/2
• Broad Jump: 08'07"
• 20 Yard Shuttle: 4.25
• 3-Cone Drill: 6.81
Season Numbers (prior to UFA)
• Catches: 63
• Catch Ratio: 62.8%
• Yards: 666
• Average: 10.6
• Touchdowns: 2
Career Numbers
• Catches: 196
• Catch Ratio: 68.9%
• Yards: 1726
• Average: 8.80
• Touchdowns: 7

Player B
• Age: 27
• Years Pro: 5
• Height: 5’11”
• Weight: 195
• 40 Yard Dash: 4.52
• 20 Yard Dash: 2.58
• 10 Yard Dash: 1.52
• 225 Lb. Bench Reps: 14
• Vertical Jump: 36 1/2
• Broad Jump: 10'03"
• 20 Yard Shuttle: 3.92
• 3-Cone Drill: 6.62
Season Numbers (prior to UFA)
• Catches: 105
• Catch Ratio: 69.53%
• Yards: 1056
• Average: 10.1
• Touchdowns: 6
Career Numbers
• Catches: 174
• Catch Ratio: 67.18%
• Yards: 1770
• Average: 10.2
• Touchdowns: 10

So player A is obviously Amendola and player B is Edelman can you please explain to me how you can argue that Amendola is worth more money than Edelman? Edelman is faster, stronger, more productive and coming off a season that is nearly double the season Amendola was coming off at the time of he signed with us. Honestly you’re easily one of the most objective and rational posters on this site generally so I have to assume you have some personal connection to Amendola that explains this bias in thinking that even if you wanted to overpay Edelman he deserves 75% of what Amendola got.

Ironically I do agree that Edelman is only worth about $3.5-$4 million but the reason we will likely have to pay more than that is because we paid a player worth probably $2.5-$3 million an average salary of $5.7 so explaining to Edelman’s agent that we think his client who is better on basically every level career and capable of contributing on STs and even as an emergency DB is worth less than the player that he started behind in training camp and doubled the output of by the end of the season should be a very interesting conversation, I would love to be a fly on the wall of that.

 

[mgteich]

Why would another team pay Edelman more than the $3.5M - $4M you say that he is "worth"? Why would another team pay more because we paid Amendola more last year?

I suspect that Edelman is gone. However, this is only related to Amendola in that we have a long term contract with him and have no intention of cutting him this year.

Player A
• Age: 27
• Years Pro: 5
• Height: 5’11”
• Weight: 183
• 40 Yard Dash: 4.68
• 20 Yard Dash: 2.65
• 10 Yard Dash: 1.51
• 225 Lb. Bench Reps: 13
• Vertical Jump: 27 1/2
• Broad Jump: 08'07"
• 20 Yard Shuttle: 4.25
• 3-Cone Drill: 6.81
Season Numbers (prior to UFA)
• Catches: 63
• Catch Ratio: 62.8%
• Yards: 666
• Average: 10.6
• Touchdowns: 2
Career Numbers
• Catches: 196
• Catch Ratio: 68.9%
• Yards: 1726
• Average: 8.80
• Touchdowns: 7

Player B
• Age: 27
• Years Pro: 5
• Height: 5’11”
• Weight: 195
• 40 Yard Dash: 4.52
• 20 Yard Dash: 2.58
• 10 Yard Dash: 1.52
• 225 Lb. Bench Reps: 14
• Vertical Jump: 36 1/2
• Broad Jump: 10'03"
• 20 Yard Shuttle: 3.92
• 3-Cone Drill: 6.62
Season Numbers (prior to UFA)
• Catches: 105
• Catch Ratio: 69.53%
• Yards: 1056
• Average: 10.1
• Touchdowns: 6
Career Numbers
• Catches: 174
• Catch Ratio: 67.18%
• Yards: 1770
• Average: 10.2
• Touchdowns: 10

So player A is obviously Amendola and player B is Edelman can you please explain to me how you can argue that Amendola is worth more money than Edelman? Edelman is faster, stronger, more productive and coming off a season that is nearly double the season Amendola was coming off at the time of he signed with us. Honestly you’re easily one of the most objective and rational posters on this site generally so I have to assume you have some personal connection to Amendola that explains this bias in thinking that even if you wanted to overpay Edelman he deserves 75% of what Amendola got.

Ironically I do agree that Edelman is only worth about $3.5-$4 million but the reason we will likely have to pay more than that is because we paid a player worth probably $2.5-$3 million an average salary of $5.7 so explaining to Edelman’s agent that we think his client who is better on basically every level career and capable of contributing on STs and even as an emergency DB is worth less than the player that he started behind in training camp and doubled the output of by the end of the season should be a very interesting conversation, I would love to be a fly on the wall of that.

 

[Brady6]

Why would another team pay Edelman more than the $3.5M - $4M you say that he is "worth"? Why would another team pay more because we paid Amendola more last year?

I suspect that Edelman is gone. However, this is only related to Amendola in that we have a long term contract with him and have no intention of cutting him this year.

Teams and agents like all other corporations look at comps in order to determine value, if you have a house that you want to sell the realtor will determine a list price by looking recent sales in the and around your neighborhood, in that same manner Edelman’s agent will look at recent signings for similar players to determine the contract he will be seeking. If you think Amendola at the same age, playing the same position and with the same number of season as pro at the time (Amendola in 2013 and Edelman in 2014) will not be taken into consideration you’re wrong and with all due respect you’re looking at things simplistically. The Patriots set the market in 2013 for Edelman by signing Amendola you could not dream of a more comparable player than Amendola for Edelman’s agent to leverage in his negotiations.

Generally I agree with 99% of what you post in here and even in the other 1% I see valuable points; nothing personal but this in my opinion couldn’t be any further than the truth even if you tried.

As far as Edelman being gone I don’t really know, but I would suggest everyone in New England better hope, pray, wish or whatever it is they do that he does not leave because we cannot rely on Danny Amendola in the slot and that is a proven fact, if we go that route we will likely be using a street free agent like Collie or an UDFA like Moe by the end of 2014.

 

[OhExaulted1]

Player A
• Age: 27
• Years Pro: 5
• Height: 5’11”
• Weight: 183
• 40 Yard Dash: 4.68
• 20 Yard Dash: 2.65
• 10 Yard Dash: 1.51
• 225 Lb. Bench Reps: 13
• Vertical Jump: 27 1/2
• Broad Jump: 08'07"
• 20 Yard Shuttle: 4.25
• 3-Cone Drill: 6.81
Season Numbers (prior to UFA)
• Catches: 63
• Catch Ratio: 62.8%
• Yards: 666
• Average: 10.6
• Touchdowns: 2
Career Numbers
• Catches: 196
• Catch Ratio: 68.9%
• Yards: 1726
• Average: 8.80
• Touchdowns: 7

Player B
• Age: 27
• Years Pro: 5
• Height: 5’11”
• Weight: 195
• 40 Yard Dash: 4.52
• 20 Yard Dash: 2.58
• 10 Yard Dash: 1.52
• 225 Lb. Bench Reps: 14
• Vertical Jump: 36 1/2
• Broad Jump: 10'03"
• 20 Yard Shuttle: 3.92
• 3-Cone Drill: 6.62
Season Numbers (prior to UFA)
• Catches: 105
• Catch Ratio: 69.53%
• Yards: 1056
• Average: 10.1
• Touchdowns: 6
Career Numbers
• Catches: 174
• Catch Ratio: 67.18%
• Yards: 1770
• Average: 10.2
• Touchdowns: 10

So player A is obviously Amendola and player B is Edelman can you please explain to me how you can argue that Amendola is worth more money than Edelman? Edelman is faster, stronger, more productive and coming off a season that is nearly double the season Amendola was coming off at the time of he signed with us. Honestly you’re easily one of the most objective and rational posters on this site generally so I have to assume you have some personal connection to Amendola that explains this bias in thinking that even if you wanted to overpay Edelman he deserves 75% of what Amendola got.

Ironically I do agree that Edelman is only worth about $3.5-$4 million but the reason we will likely have to pay more than that is because we paid a player worth probably $2.5-$3 million an average salary of $5.7 so explaining to Edelman’s agent that we think his client who is better on basically every level career and capable of contributing on STs and even as an emergency DB is worth less than the player that he started behind in training camp and doubled the output of by the end of the season should be a very interesting conversation, I would love to be a fly on the wall of that.

Nice research Brady6. Almost 2 ft longer in the broad jump and 9" higher in the vertical! Maybe he IS worth this kind off dough per year.....

 

[Brady6]

Nice research Brady6. Almost 2 ft longer in the broad jump and 9" higher in the vertical! Maybe he IS worth this kind off dough per year.....

One thing people overlook about Edelman is he was not a wide receiver in college he was a QB; this past season was his 5th playing the position at competitive K-12 level, Amendola and Welker like most receivers in the NFL played the position for 4 years in college and did not have to learn the position for the first time at the NFL level. If you consider that you could make the case that Edelman is at the same level of his development as a WR as someone who went ot college for 4 years and played 1 season in the NFL. Obviously that is not apples to apples but I am exaggerating my point to highlight that Edelman is still growing into the WR position and this season we saw that he progressed significantly as the season went on, I saw that expecially with the number of pass interference penalties he had begun drawing in the final games of the year.

 

[kennyb]

Edelman deserves amendola money more than amendola ever did. But if the pats are high bidder they still may get him for less than that. Which might leave Edelman rightfully po'd but with little recourse.

so the question is what will other teams offer him? And if it's approx amendola money should the pats offer it?

I think they should. Amendola is a sunk cost. No need in compounding the error by letting a guy like Edelman leave.

 

[mgteich]

What you are seem to be saying is that the market is set by one team overpaying, and not even in the same year.

Teams and agents like all other corporations look at comps in order to determine value, if you have a house that you want to sell the realtor will determine a list price by looking recent sales in the and around your neighborhood, in that same manner Edelman’s agent will look at recent signings for similar players to determine the contract he will be seeking. If you think Amendola at the same age, playing the same position and with the same number of season as pro at the time (Amendola in 2013 and Edelman in 2014) will not be taken into consideration you’re wrong and with all due respect you’re looking at things simplistically. The Patriots set the market in 2013 for Edelman by signing Amendola you could not dream of a more comparable player than Amendola for Edelman’s agent to leverage in his negotiations.

Generally I agree with 99% of what you post in here and even in the other 1% I see valuable points; nothing personal but this in my opinion couldn’t be any further than the truth even if you tried.

As far as Edelman being gone I don’t really know, but I would suggest everyone in New England better hope, pray, wish or whatever it is they do that he does not leave because we cannot rely on Danny Amendola in the slot and that is a proven fact, if we go that route we will likely be using a street free agent like Collie or an UDFA like Moe by the end of 2014.

 

[supafly]

Player A
• Age: 27
• Years Pro: 5
• Height: 5’11”
• Weight: 183
• 40 Yard Dash: 4.68
• 20 Yard Dash: 2.65
• 10 Yard Dash: 1.51
• 225 Lb. Bench Reps: 13
• Vertical Jump: 27 1/2
• Broad Jump: 08'07"
• 20 Yard Shuttle: 4.25
• 3-Cone Drill: 6.81
Season Numbers (prior to UFA)
• Catches: 63
• Catch Ratio: 62.8%
• Yards: 666
• Average: 10.6
• Touchdowns: 2
Career Numbers
• Catches: 196
• Catch Ratio: 68.9%
• Yards: 1726
• Average: 8.80
• Touchdowns: 7

Player B
• Age: 27
• Years Pro: 5
• Height: 5’11”
• Weight: 195
• 40 Yard Dash: 4.52
• 20 Yard Dash: 2.58
• 10 Yard Dash: 1.52
• 225 Lb. Bench Reps: 14
• Vertical Jump: 36 1/2
• Broad Jump: 10'03"
• 20 Yard Shuttle: 3.92
• 3-Cone Drill: 6.62
Season Numbers (prior to UFA)
• Catches: 105
• Catch Ratio: 69.53%
• Yards: 1056
• Average: 10.1
• Touchdowns: 6
Career Numbers
• Catches: 174
• Catch Ratio: 67.18%
• Yards: 1770
• Average: 10.2
• Touchdowns: 10

So player A is obviously Amendola and player B is Edelman can you please explain to me how you can argue that Amendola is worth more money than Edelman? Edelman is faster, stronger, more productive and coming off a season that is nearly double the season Amendola was coming off at the time of he signed with us. Honestly you’re easily one of the most objective and rational posters on this site generally so I have to assume you have some personal connection to Amendola that explains this bias in thinking that even if you wanted to overpay Edelman he deserves 75% of what Amendola got.

I state that ALL of Cruz, Amendola, and Welker were overpaid at the slot position last year and that many GMs may be more inclined to think twice before doling out another higher priced deal, and you come back with some measurables from the scouting combine?

We all know that Edelman is a fine athletic talent, however his lack of blocking skills along with his very raw and unpolished route running still have a lot of work to be done. These are admissions from Julian himself.

Ironically I do agree that Edelman is only worth about $3.5-$4 million but the reason we will likely have to pay more than that is because we paid a player worth probably $2.5-$3 million an average salary of $5.7 so explaining to Edelman’s agent that we think his client who is better on basically every level career and capable of contributing on STs and even as an emergency DB is worth less than the player that he started behind in training camp and doubled the output of by the end of the season should be a very interesting conversation, I would love to be a fly on the wall of that.

I don't mean this to be offensive, but you seem to have a very odd way of approaching contracts in their entirety, judging by the way that you constantly bring up Amendola's "5.7" million dollars (that he'll most likely never, ever see).

I suspect that you were one who was very surprised when Donovan McNabb signed his "100 million dollar" contract several years ago?

Most GMs aren't going to go by potential AAV in future years of what has basically become a backloaded deal that has an out, especially when it's more than obvious that this pact will never come to fruition. N.England obviously tries its best to restrain itself from these kinds of deals, but there have been more than plenty of examples where they've had no choice, and Amendola's pact would appear to be that way....unless of course, they envision him as their replacement in the slot as they did going into week #1 prior to his injury. If that's the case, it's a whole different ballgame again, and even then, they may still ask him to restructure.