What Should We Expect From A Draft?

[mgteich]

Drafts are critical because they are the way the team gets cap bargains at various positions. We could get free agent at market value for any position. But contributors on their rookie contracts is where the bargains are. It costs lots of cap money if we get nothing out of a draft.

As far as the 2022 team is concerned what matters is the 2021, 2020 and 2019 drafts, plus the 5th year of the 2018 first rounder.


WHAT SHOULD WE EXPECT?
Clearly 2 starters, a top backup, and some hopefuls is GREAT. Everyone seems to agree about 2021.
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2021 (2nd year players)
3 immediate contributors: Jones (starter), Barmore (starter), Stevenson (top backup after half a year)
hopes: Perkins, McGrone, Bledsoe, Sherman, Nixon

2020 (3rd year players)
2 top contributors: Dugger, Onwenu
1 backup: Herron
hopes: Uche, Jennings, Asiasi/Keene (one is our 3rd down TE)

2019 (4th year players)
2 top contributors: Harris, Bailey
bottom of the roster players: Harry, Williams, Cowart, Cajuste, Stidham

2018 (5th year first rounder)
Wynn is NOT a flop. Wynn is now an average LT for his 5th year.
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MY BOTTOM LINE
We are still recovering from the 2019 draft. If we consider 2023, that draft should have little impact.

For 2022, what is reasonable? How about two 2022 contributors and two more 2023 contributors? that's four, basically what we got from 2021, if one of the hopefuls works out. Should we expect 2021 EVERY TIME? What team does that?

 

[scott99]

We got 3 really good contributors from the 2021 draft. Hopefully we get 2 or 3 from 2022. If they go CB in the 1st round, that player has to be a plug and play contributor. Same goes for an LB or Oline if they go that way in the 1st. They really need to add SPEED on both sides of the ball. So please Bill, no slowpokes. I know people are against it, but they need some explosive weapons on offense, and I’m mainly looking at WR. If they ignore WR in the 1st round, I think it behooves them to take a speedy WR in the 2nd round. Just someone who can scare teams.

The Pats offense doesn’t scare anyone. You can see that late in the year, the opponent’s defenses didn’t respect the Pat’s offense at all. Slow down Bourne and Henry, and they knew they could win.

 

[Ring 6]

We will get more from drafts now than we used to, because
1) we are drafting in a higher slot
2) there is more opportunity for a draft choice to make an impact on the roster now than there was when we had the best roster in the league.
3) the changes in the game over the last few years create greater opportunity for role players

 

[Ochmed Jones]

We should expect to get 2 quality starters and 2 quality backups from this draft.

The key is to set the board up correctly and be true to it.

No more craziness from bb, like trying to prove your the smartest guy in the draft by drafting the worthless defensive back Richards in the second round, when he has a fifth round grade! Uugghh!

No more craziness from bb, like trying to prove he knows more than everybody else in the draft, and all 32 team doctors, by wasting a first round pick on a double acl surgery defensive linemen! Pure insanity!

No more craziness from bb, like overruling your entire draft room to draft a wide receiver in the first round that can not get separation from a fire hydrant! Absolute stupidity!

No more craziness from bb, like wasting a second round pick on a large, slow, immobile defensive back named slowjuan, who has done nothing for us for three year! Another wasted high draft pick!!

Let wolf set up the draft board properly and then wolf and grohl need to work together to keep bb true to that board and keep bb from trying to outsmart the other 31 teams by gambling on questionable lowly rated jag players on day 1 or day 2 of the draft!

Gambling on low rated, athletically questionable jags is how bb got us in this mess and derailed the dynasty! Now we have to listen to Kraft talk about not winning a playoff game for three straight years. No happy ending for him or us!

Ps: Bb can go rogue and try to outsmart the league late on day 3 and in signing UDFA’s. At least late on day 3 and with UDFA’s he has an above average track record of success! Bb just has to stay true to wolf’s board on day 1 and day 2 and we will have another spectacular draft!

 

[Ring 6]

We should expect to get 2 quality starters and 2 quality backups from this draft.

The key is to set the board up correctly and be true to it.

No more craziness from bb, like trying to prove your the smartest guy in the draft by drafting the worthless defensive back Richards in the second round, when he has a fifth round grade! Uugghh!

No more craziness from bb, like trying to prove he knows more than everybody else in the draft, and all 32 team doctors, by wasting a first round pick on a double acl surgery defensive linemen! Pure insanity!

No more craziness from bb, like overruling your entire draft room to draft a wide receiver in the first round that can not get separation from a fire hydrant! Absolute stupidity!

No more craziness from bb, like wasting a second round pick on a large, slow, immobile defensive back named slowjuan, who has done nothing for us for three year! Another wasted high draft pick!!

Let wolf set up the draft board properly and then wolf and grohl need to work together to keep bb true to that board and keep bb from trying to outsmart the other 31 teams by gambling on questionable lowly rated jag players on day 1 or day 2 of the draft!

Gambling on low rated, athletically questionable jags is how bb got us in this mess and derailed the dynasty! Now we have to listen to Kraft talk about not winning a playoff game for three straight years. No happy ending for him or us!

Ps: Bb can go rogue and try to outsmart the league late on day 3 and in signing UDFA’s. At least late on day 3 and with UDFA’s he has an above average track record of success! Bb just has to stay true to wolf’s board on day 1 and day 2 and we will have another spectacular draft!

We are in a mess? We made the playoffs in our QBs rookie year.

 

[mgteich]

Only the last four drafts are relevant to 2022 and our future.
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I agree that 2019 was a travesty.

In 2020, we got 2 quality starters and 1 backup (our swing OT), with one more possible in Uche or Jennings or Asiasi or Keene.

In 2021, we got 2 quality starters, and one backup, with hopefully another to come from Perkins, McGrone, Bledsoe, Sherman or Nixon.

And we still have our 2020 first as our starting LT.
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We need to repeat many times that we reached the playoffs with a rookie QB in 2021. This wasn't an accident. We were about equal to the couple of teams just above and just behind us.
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We were nowhere good enough to be competitive with the Bills in the playoffs without a 50 mile an hour wind, and, even then, we likely would have lost. We might have beaten the Titans if we played them.
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This year, the offense will be better, although, of course, they could be even better if a couple of studs were added to the team. (just as every team would be).

This year, the defense is still top 5-10. Much depends on health, and the additions still to be made.

But the BOTTOM LINE, is that, depending on injuries, this team could be much better than in 2021. And 2023, after a 4th decent draft, we should be much better, given FOUR drafts of relatively inexpensive quality players on rookie contracts.

 

[venecol]

For 2022, what is reasonable? How about two 2022 contributors and two more 2023 contributors? that's four, basically what we got from 2021, if one of he hopefuls works out. Should we expect 2021 EVERY TIME? What team does that?

Only team that comes to mind are the Bucs who consistently drafted players that were starters, back-ups or STers on the 53 between 2018-2021. Yet, even with those draft hits, they had to go into FAcy in 2020 to bring in talent (QB, TE, RB, WR) to take them to the SB. So not sure the draft alone w/o veteran talent thru FAcy gets it done.

2018:
Vita Vea (Rd 1)
Ronald Jones II (KC)
Carlton Davis
Alex Cappa (CIN)
Jordan Whitehead (NYJ)

2019:
Devin White (Rd 1)
Sean Murphy-Bunting
Jamel Dean
Mike Edwards
Anthony Nelson
Matt Gay (LAR)
Scotty Miller

2020:
Tristan Wirf (Rd 1)
Antoine Winfield Jr.
Ke'Shawn Vaughn
Tyler Johnson

2021:
Joe Tryon (Rd 1)
Robert Hainsey
Jaelon Darden
K.J. Britt
Grant Stuard

 

[Ochmed Jones]

We are in a mess? We made the playoffs in our QBs rookie year.

The “mess” is a detailed dynasty!

Ps: it is easier to keep the ox out of the ditch, then to get the ox out of the ditch!

 

[Zuma]

3) the changes in the game over the last few years create greater opportunity for role players

I think DL and LB role players are part of the problem for the Patriots. Teams know the weakness of players that can’t play 3 downs and take advantage of those weaknesses. It’s better to have players that can play all 3 downs…obviously.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I think DL and LB role players are part of the problem for the Patriots. Teams know the weakness of players that can’t play 3 downs and take advantage of those weaknesses. It’s better to have players that can play all 3 downs…obviously.

Was it really the defensive line and linebackers or was it our scheme’s inability to deal with rpo’s?

 

[Zuma]

Was it really the defensive line and linebackers or was it our scheme’s inability to deal with rpo’s?

Well good point but slow LB’s killed us. I’m on board with drafting J Davis for DL and having young, fast and lighter LBs.

Then we can scheme against RPOs.

 

[Deus Irae]

Anyone else having trouble with the pub forum?

 

[TheRainMaker]

A DL to pair up with Barmore with their first pick. Their D Line is among the worst in the league.

WR, LB, or CB with the day 2 picks.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

If we let wolf set up the board properly and we stay true to the board and not let bb go rogue, we take the best player available every time we come up to pick, regardless of position, and we will get 4 quality players on our roster from this draft.

My guess is we trade down in the first round and then wolf does his magic.

 

[zimmy]

I think in general people overestimate what to expect from a draft. You should expect to get on average one quality starter and 2/3 decent role players in my view. Our best drafts of the last decade were 2010 and 2012.

In 2010 we got two pro bowl players in Gronk and McCourty (HoF in Gronk's case), plus decent starters/role players in Spikes and Hernandez. In 2012, we got two pro bowl players in Jones and Hightower and then an okay role player in Dennard. 2015 brought Flowers and Mason, two quality starters, plus a solid player in Malcolm Brown. Then the last few years have been bad. McCourty, and maybe Gronk (but even he got eased in) were the only ones who really popped in year one, although Jones and Hightower were solid.

So, I think that shows how impressive Barmore and Jones were last year. It also shows that we can probably expect at best to find two players who will contribute in this draft straight away - and more likely rookies will start as part of a rotation.

And while I agree the Bucs have drafted well, lets not forget their key starters listed above - Vea, Wirfs and White - were all drafted higher than we've been able to pick since 2008. Jones last year was the highest pick we've had since Mayo in 2008. We simply don't really get access to blue chippers unless there is some off field or injury issue. We were lucky to get Barmore last year, who really should have been a mid 1st rounder.

 

[nextsuperstar]

We got 3 really good contributors from the 2021 draft. Hopefully we get 2 or 3 from 2022. If they go CB in the 1st round, that player has to be a plug and play contributor. Same goes for an LB or Oline if they go that way in the 1st. They really need to add SPEED on both sides of the ball. So please Bill, no slowpokes. I know people are against it, but they need some explosive weapons on offense, and I’m mainly looking at WR. If they ignore WR in the 1st round, I think it behooves them to take a speedy WR in the 2nd round. Just someone who can scare teams.

The Pats offense doesn’t scare anyone. You can see that late in the year, the opponent’s defenses didn’t respect the Pat’s offense at all. Slow down Bourne and Henry, and they knew they could win.

I agree, a speed would help, but I wouldn’t want the team to confuse 40 time with playing ability. You need guys who can play and are athletic enough. Remember another high round WR bust the year the Patriots took Harry is Isabella who has 4.31. John Ross and his 4.22 40 have done nothing. You don’t want to do the classic Raiders strategy of grabbing track stars simply because they are fast.

 

[Username]

I think, unless someone really special drops and is there at 21, we trade down and take Kyler Gordon and Dotson with our first two picks

 

[TheRazorsEdge]

One thing for certain we can expect on Draft night:

Alot of angry posters - posting that the Pats should of taken the player they mocked 1000 times, because : trust me bro.

 

[Ivan]

A DL to pair up with Barmore with their first pick. Their D Line is among the worst in the league.

WR, LB, or CB with the day 2 picks.

This depends completely upon how the board falls in draft day. There are a number of players I would be happy with in the 1st, e.g…Jameson Williams ( WR Al.), Devonte Wyatt ( DL GA), Devin Lloyd ( LB UT), and others I don’t want, such as Nakobe Dean (LB GA) Trent McDuffie ( CB WA). I don’t include the players that will be long gone, like Jordan Davis. So how they handle the pick depends upon what happens to their first round board before they pick. I don’t believe they will trade up, but I could definitely see them moving down a little for more picks. Whether I like that or not will depend upon who is available at #21.

 

[mgteich]

So, I think that shows how impressive Barmore and Jones were last year. It also shows that we can probably expect at best to find two players who will contribute in this draft straight away - and more likely rookies will start as part of a rotation.

and Stevenson