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What Should We Expect From A Draft?

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stephens44

On the Game Day Roster
I'd be happy if they just took the best rated guy at one of the "need" positions and didn't reach for anyone like in years past. The Pats need speed, playing speed, not necessarily combine speed.
 

mgteich

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zion johnson would be great
zion johnson > linderbaum
The issue is whether the team expect Andrews to play more than this year, and perhaps how good he would be at LG. It is much, much, much easier to find a quality starting guards then a center.

Let us say that the team saw what was available and chose to draft an OL, either at 21 or with a small trade down, with the expectation of drafting another in the 3rd or 4th. My position is that OC in the 1st and OG in the 3rd or 4th is much more likely to produce two quality 2023 starters that drafting an OG in the first and an OC in the 3rd or 4th.
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I would note that if the team is convinced that Andrews is expected to play through his contract (2024), then a center is less attractive. Some think it easy to find a center or backup center. Sure! That's why Ferentz is on the team. We want much, much better as our backup OC.
 
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Rob0729

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Here are things I expect:
  • No matter who the Pats draft in the first round or trade out, most of the Pats fans will hate it.
  • The Pats will draft a player on no one's boards in the second round
  • The Pats will likely pick someone early in the draft that everyone will say would be a great pick if he was drafted two rounds later and a player drafted two rounds later that people will say was two round earlier value.
 

Ochmed Jones

Pro Bowl Player
2021 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
Here are things I expect:
  • No matter who the Pats draft in the first round or trade out, most of the Pats fans will hate it.
  • The Pats will draft a player on no one's boards in the second round
  • The Pats will likely pick someone early in the draft that everyone will say would be a great pick if he was drafted two rounds later and a player drafted two rounds later that people will say was two round earlier value.

Wolf to the rescue!
 

One-If-By-Sea

In the Starting Line-Up
The issue is whether the team expect Andrews to play more than this year, and perhaps how good he would be at LG. It is much, much, much easier to find a quality starting center than a guard.

Let us say that the team saw what was available and chose to draft an OL, either at 21 or with a small trade down, with the expectation of drafting another in the 3rd or 4th. My position is that OC in the 1st and OG in the 3rd or 4th is much more likely to produce two quality 2023 starters that drafting an OG in the first and an OC in the 3rd or 4th.
=============
I would note that if the team is convinced that Andrews is expected to play through his contract (2024), then a center is less attractive. Some think it easy to find a center or backup center. Sure! That's why Ferentz is on the team. We want much, much better as our backup OC.

If it is much much much easier to find a quality starting center than a guard (your words), than it makes no sense to draft the center in the 1st and the guard in the 3rd or 4th.
 

mgteich

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If it is much much much easier to find a quality starting center than a guard (your words), than it makes no sense to draft the center in the 1st and the guard in the 3rd or 4th.
You are correct. I mistyped and fixed the post.

In any case, since we have every reason to believe that Andrews will be here through his contract, I don't want us to draft a center in the first, even if he is the BPA.

Actually, I am fairly easily pleased (for now). There are several players that I would be very happy with, given our need for a stud at CB, DE, DT, OG and OT.

My hope is that we will sign Gilmore after the draft, so even that position wouldn't be critical.
 

One-If-By-Sea

In the Starting Line-Up
You are correct. I mistyped and fixed the post.

In any case, since we have every reason to believe that Andrews will be here through his contract, I don't want us to draft a center in the first, even if he is the BPA.

Actually, I am fairly easily pleased (for now). There are several players that I would be very happy with, given our need for a stud at CB, DE, DT, OG and OT.

My hope is that we will sign Gilmore after the draft, so even that position wouldn't be critical.

Yes. Signing Gilmore, plus Hicks and Flowers, would be great.
 

stcjones

Pro Bowl Player
Drafts are critical because they are the way the team gets cap bargains at various positions. We could get free agent at market value for any position. But contributors on their rookie contracts is where the bargains are. It costs lots of cap money if we get nothing out of a draft.

As far as the 2022 team is concerned what matters is the 2021, 2020 and 2019 drafts, plus the 5th year of the 2018 first rounder.


WHAT SHOULD WE EXPECT?
Clearly 2 starters, a top backup, and some hopefuls is GREAT. Everyone seems to agree about 2021.
======================
2021 (2nd year players)
3 immediate contributors: Jones (starter), Barmore (starter), Stevenson (top backup after half a year)
hopes: Perkins, McGrone, Bledsoe, Sherman, Nixon

2020 (3rd year players)
2 top contributors: Dugger, Onwenu
1 backup: Herron
hopes: Uche, Jennings, Asiasi/Keene (one is our 3rd down TE)

2019 (4th year players)
2 top contributors: Harris, Bailey
bottom of the roster players: Harry, Williams, Cowart, Cajuste, Stidham

2018 (5th year first rounder)
Wynn is NOT a flop. Wynn is now an average LT for his 5th year.
=====================
MY BOTTOM LINE
We are still recovering from the 2019 draft. If we consider 2023, that draft should have little impact.

For 2022, what is reasonable? How about two 2022 contributors and two more 2023 contributors? that's four, basically what we got from 2021, if one of the hopefuls works out. Should we expect 2021 EVERY TIME? What team does that?
We can expect to see Nike working the draft board and making deals with little displayed emotion…..
 

1960Pats

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Here are things I expect:
  • No matter who the Pats draft in the first round or trade out, most of the Pats fans will hate it.
  • The Pats will draft a player on no one's boards in the second round
  • The Pats will likely pick someone early in the draft that everyone will say would be a great pick if he was drafted two rounds later and a player drafted two rounds later that people will say was two round earlier value.
I find it fascinating to go back and read pre-draft posts after the draft. I give this one two thumbs up.

I also find it fascinating that fans rate players before they ever see them play a down in the NYFL. Even if I followed college football, which I don't, I wouldn't be able to declare which players will make that transition. Bill himself has said how difficult that can be.
 

PatsFanInVa

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2020 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
The “mess” is a detailed dynasty!

Ps: it is easier to keep the ox out of the ditch, then to get the ox out of the ditch!
For everybody who is not for some reason Iliad/Odyssey-obsessed:

Odysseus was, like all the best kings of Ancient Greece, pledged to defend the marriage of Menolaus and Helen. So Paris comes in and YOINK, off Helen goes to Troy. But Odysseus wants to evade the draft, as it were, because has a baby son, Telemachus, and besides, isn't into it.

When Menolaus dispatches Palamedes to bring him back and make him go to the war, he pulls a Corporal Klinger and bucks for a section 8. When Palamedes arrives, Odysseus is in the field with an ox and an ass yoked to the same plow. This is supposed to prove he's insane, because the mismatched animals would plow crookedly.

Palamedes gets baby Telemachus and puts him in front of the plow, Odysseus stops plowing, and he is proven to be sane.

Clearly Ochmed is intimating that... well actually, nothing like this. It just reminded me of it because of all the talk about craziness and the ox and the ditch and Belichick and Groh both working on the draft board somehow.

Do we think we know the lines of authority there? It sure looks like Groh is the man, for all the public visibility/explaining. But the other possibility is, for all we know, BB is fully in charge, and Groh is the Face of the Draft.

Has anybody said, here's how the decisions work in case of a disagreement? Is there a Wargames-style "Turn your key, sir!" scenario?
 

1960Pats

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With Notgoat & the Slappies, actual competency is indeed the unexpected.
None of us know how the drafted players will work out. All we can do is wait and see.

What I do like is the addition of picks. They ended up with 10 this year and 1 the next. I see that as a good thing.
 

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