What round to take a QB

[Bombdog]

BB won't take a QB in the first round. There might a DB available from What's Amata U he could not pass on. Each and everyday it becomes clearer Brady won the SB BB was just along for the ride.

 

[Bourne Again Christian]

BB won't take a QB in the first round. There might a DB available from What's Amata U he could not pass on. Each and everyday it becomes clearer Brady won the SB BB was just along for the ride.

I just really hope your not serious.

 

[Mack Herron]

My fear is that whatever pick he uses a rookie qb will not be ready to start so we get another season of a guy who cannot execute a progression.

 

[lancerman]

My fear is that whatever pick he uses a rookie qb will not be ready to start so we get Nother season of a guy who cannot execute a progression.

Personally I think a lot of people should have realized last year that this wasn’t going to be one year rebuild. This 2-3 at the most. This year was about getting rid of problematic cap issues and evaluating what we had left.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Personally I think a lot of people should have realized last year that this wasn’t going to be one year rebuild. This 2-3 at the most. This year was about getting rid of problematic cap issues and evaluating what we had left.

the rebuild will last until we get a capable qb!

 

[lancerman]

the rebuild will last until we get a capable qb!

It will be a big part of it. Even if we answer QB this off season, we need to address our defensive front, aging players on defense, get real WR’s and someone who deserves to be called a TE.

 

[mgteich]

My fear is that whatever pick he uses a rookie qb will not be ready to start so we get another season of a guy who cannot execute a progression.

We need to understand that we need a starting veteran quarterback, one who we would be fine leading the team for the 2021 season.

We also need to draft a QB in top 16 picks, who would start as soon as he is ready.

Finally, we need an emergency backup in case of injuries.
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Stidham may be the emergency #3, but Bill will likely secure competition for that role.

 

[mgteich]

It will be a big part of it. Even if we answer QB this off season, we need to address our defensive front, aging players on defense, get real WR’s and someone who deserves to be called a TE.

Sure, we need lots of help.

But, personally, I think that if we had an average NFL starting QB this year, we would be strongly competing for the playoffs. Perhapos, folks think that an average QB wouldn't have been 2 games better than Cam. If in addition, we had the league average number of folks choosing to opt out, we would likely have been even stronger.

We may have been more than a player or two from strong Super Bowl contention, but that is another matter.

 

[WilliamCapmbell]

We hold our fists and believe...

 

[scott99]

Lawrence and fields will be long off the board by the time we pick.

lance, jones, Wilson and trask I have with a third round grade.

when looking over the college landscape, the guy that catches my eye as a guy with pro size, arm strength, athleticism and tons of intangibles is ridder of cincy. I see ridder as jimmy g part 2.

Can we coach him up on decision making and accuracy?

Just because YOU have Lance, Jones, Wilson & Trask with 3rd round grades, which you’ve said about 1000 times, (like if you repeat it enough times it’ll be gospel), doesn’t mean NFL scouts have them with 3rd round grades. In fact, Lance & Wilson may go in the top 10. To have Lance and Wilson rated as 3rd round picks is quite preposterous. Not one scout agrees with that. They have the talent and the results, especially Wilson, to be rated 1st round picks. And Lance, there’s enough film on him for scouts to salivate over him.

 

[pazrul72]

Here is my question for all the HAVE to get a FIRST round QB table pounders. Let’s say the Pats are picking 12th and the top 4 are gone. The pats like but don’t love who is left and think he might last until their next pick but because 4 QBs have gone their top ILB or NT is still there. Would you rather have the leftovers because you know first round QB or the best LB in the draft? Personally I want BPA almost regardless of position because there are a lot of holes and potential down the road holes in the roster. Getting back to that 5th QB let’s say he does make it to their round 2 pick. Is he any worse a prospect because he was selected 32 picks later? I would argue no but he is a better value on a cheap contract. You have to pick players where they are valued not by what position they play or your needs.

 

[sb1]

After what we heard from BB yesterday - I think our odds of moving up to grab a QB went up.

 

[sb1]

Sure, we need lots of help.

But, personally, I think that if we had an average NFL starting QB this year, we would be strongly competing for the playoffs. Perhapos, folks think that an average QB wouldn't have been 2 games better than Cam. If in addition, we had the league average number of folks choosing to opt out, we would likely have been even stronger.

We may have been more than a player or two from strong Super Bowl contention, but that is another matter.

I don't know how it would have played out. I think the Broncos loss turns into a W with a decent passing game for sure but is there really any other one? Cam fumbled against the Bills but the defense was lousy in that game. Texans - no that L was on the defense too. Niners? Both QB and defense were atrocious. Chiefs I guess but the circumstances were weird.

 

[Toofy]

We should have signed thuney last year and packaged him with first rounder to bengals for their first pick. If Gilmore can help us achieve that, that would be great as well.

 

[patsinthesnow]

Here is every QB drafted in the 2nd round from 1997-2019 (ignore the stats - hasn't been updated in awhile):

• 24 QBs - 17 busts
• 5 acceptable starting QBs
• 1 HOF/franchise QB (Brees)

The odds on hitting on a 2nd round QB are slim. Rounds 3-7 are basically to the lottery. However, it's worth noting that BB drafted one of the best 2nd round QBs in Garoppolo as well as one of only two successes in the 7th round in Cassel during this timeframe.

Here is every first round QB drafted outside the top 10 since 1997:

• 25 QBs - 15 busts
• 5 acceptable starting QBs
• 5 HOF/franchise QBs

I don't think most here would be content with one of those 5 acceptable QBs as the next starting QB of the team. The success rate on drafting a franchise QB from picks 11-32 is about 20%. It is almost 40% for a top 10 pick.

Trading up into the top 10 is a smart move.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Here is every QB drafted in the 2nd round from 1997-2019 (ignore the stats - hasn't been updated in awhile):

View attachment 29454

• 24 QBs - 17 busts
• 5 acceptable starting QBs
• 1 HOF/franchise QB (Brees)

The odds on hitting on a 2nd round QB are slim. Rounds 3-7 are basically to the lottery. However, it's worth noting that BB drafted one of the best 2nd round QBs in Garoppolo as well as one of only two successes in the 7th round in Cassel during this timeframe.

Here is every first round QB drafted outside the top 10 since 1997:

View attachment 29455

• 25 QBs - 15 busts
• 5 acceptable starting QBs
• 5 HOF/franchise QBs

I don't think most here would be content with one of those 5 acceptable QBs as the next starting QB of the team. The success rate on drafting a franchise QB from picks 11-32 is about 20%. It is almost 40% for a top 10 pick.

Trading up into the top 10 is a smart move.

Great analysis. Thanks for your effort and time.

It would be interesting to see how the Pats have done drafting QBs since 2001 versus others. Cassell is a hit, JimmyG is a hit, there were a bunch of misses, how were the Pats' picks versus other 2nd round, 3rd round, 4th round QB team's picks? Anything after the 4th round is a crap shoot and can be ignored. I think the Pats have a higher hit rate than the league picking QBs in rounds 2 - 4, but maybe I am kidding myself. Don't know if that is too much time to study. In other words, top 10 in the 1st round is best on average, but are the Pats better than average in picking QBs so trading up is not necessary? I think the Pats are not great at drafting WRs so maybe a different approach for different positions would be wise? A lot of variables with that type of analysis, so maybe it is too much time to be worth it.

 

[lancerman]

Here is my question for all the HAVE to get a FIRST round QB table pounders. Let’s say the Pats are picking 12th and the top 4 are gone. The pats like but don’t love who is left and think he might last until their next pick but because 4 QBs have gone their top ILB or NT is still there. Would you rather have the leftovers because you know first round QB or the best LB in the draft? Personally I want BPA almost regardless of position because there are a lot of holes and potential down the road holes in the roster. Getting back to that 5th QB let’s say he does make it to their round 2 pick. Is he any worse a prospect because he was selected 32 picks later? I would argue no but he is a better value on a cheap contract. You have to pick players where they are valued not by what position they play or your needs.

If you think he’s your guy you get him. You don’t screw around with the QB position. The value just isn’t there at any other position. And quite frankly if he’s the current best QB on the board his value just went up for any teams that want a QB. Even a team like the Falcons that might want to have a future QB but don’t want to invest a first night be willing to go for a second.

It’s too risky for the position. Teams like Arizona are showing it’s worth it to go QB high in multiple years to ensure you get the right guy. We can’t pretend it’s the 80’s or 90’s where you can be consistently competitive with average QB’s.

 

[pazrul72]

If you think he’s your guy you get him. You don’t screw around with the QB position. The value just isn’t there at any other position. And quite frankly if he’s the current best QB on the board his value just went up for any teams that want a QB. Even a team like the Falcons that might want to have a future QB but don’t want to invest a first night be willing to go for a second.

It’s too risky for the position. Teams like Arizona are showing it’s worth it to go QB high in multiple years to ensure you get the right guy. We can’t pretend it’s the 80’s or 90’s where you can be consistently competitive with average QB’s.

See I view Arizona the exact opposite. They took a QB cuz they HAD to, and I do give them props for recognizing he’s not the guy and trying again, but imagine how much better they would be if they had gotten another high caliber player instead of Rosen? Maybe they wouldn’t have had to mortgage the farm to get Hopkins. To be consistently competitive you have to nail the few top 10 caliber picks you do get, or it can set your franchise back years. I know nothing about this years draft prospects so I don’t have specific names yet but in essence give me Luke Kechley over Teddy Bridgewater.

 

[mgteich]

Here is my question for all the HAVE to get a FIRST round QB table pounders. Let’s say the Pats are picking 12th and the top 4 are gone. The pats like but don’t love who is left and think he might last until their next pick but because 4 QBs have gone their top ILB or NT is still there. Would you rather have the leftovers because you know first round QB or the best LB in the draft? Personally I want BPA almost regardless of position because there are a lot of holes and potential down the road holes in the roster. Getting back to that 5th QB let’s say he does make it to their round 2 pick. Is he any worse a prospect because he was selected 32 picks later? I would argue no but he is a better value on a cheap contract. You have to pick players where they are valued not by what position they play or your needs.

Obviously, if the first are gone, and we don't like the 5th, we should NOT take a QB. Who is suggesting that? The issue is trading up, not seeing if someone falls.

 

[lancerman]

See I view Arizona the exact opposite. They took a QB cuz they HAD to, and I do give them props for recognizing he’s not the guy and trying again, but imagine how much better they would be if they had gotten another high caliber player instead of Rosen? Maybe they wouldn’t have had to mortgage the farm to get Hopkins. To be consistently competitive you have to nail the few top 10 caliber picks you do get, or it can set your franchise back years. I know nothing about this years draft prospects so I don’t have specific names yet but in essence give me Luke Kechley over Teddy Bridgewater.

The problem is nothing is a guarantee. You think they needed a pass catcher? The first WR off the board was DJ Moore. He's decent. Not megastar. Hokins is leagues above him and was always going to add far more to his team. The next year the best pass catcher was TJ Hockensen who went 8th overall and he's kinda underwhelming all things considered. Then the top 2 WR's were Marquis Brown and our favorite N'keal Harry. Both have been in the bust conversation. Then the year before in 2017, 3 WR's were taken and all of them are just kinda there. Corey Davis is the best of that 3 this year and he's barely a top 25 WR, Williams is having a huge down year, and Ross is a total bust who has been struggling and requested a trade and didn't even play this year.

Meanwhile if the Cardinals had a crystal ball they just would have taken Lamar Jackson who was the 5th ranked QB in the draft that has becoming a a resounding success.

The point is that it's a risk either way. So you if you lack a QB you might as well keep taking risks until you succeed on the position that is worth like 3 to 4 of any other position. If you don't have a QB you aren't going anywhere especially if you don't have a QB and are picking in the top 10. And I'm pretty sure they are happy with the result.

We almost never had a top 10 pick and we were competetive.

The QB is like having the queen in chess. Can you it and win? Yeah but it's hard and you shouldn't beat any respectable player that does have one. And you're willing to lose almost any piece but that. Most teams without a QB would be okay sacraficing their best corner for a top tier franchise QB for 15 years.

The only way you wouldn't take a QB is if you honestly didn't like the QB. If he's just the 4th or 5th best there and you had him rated highly and thought he could be your guy, take him right away. If you feel like he's mediocre and you are settling, don't. Nobody is saying don't take a QB if you don't believe in him. But if he's there and you are thinking "I like him, but I didn't think the others would go that fast and I was banking on him being in the next round" then GET HIM

Too valuable.