What round to take a QB

[Wozzy]

Then why has he lost his job even though his head coach’s job is very clearly on the line and needs a win in the worst way? And be honest with me - how many Jags games do you honestly watch? I’m relatively sure they’re never on up there unless they’re playing the Pats and I’m not really sure why anyone outside of Jax would choose one of their games on Sunday Ticket. You’re going off of raw stats, aren’t you? You must be because you, very clearly I might add, have no idea how many games that team has actually been in that have been lost at the end BECAUSE of Minshew in the last two seasons. This team is on my TV every week with either the Pats game, the best game I can find on Sunday Ticket, or the Red Zone channel on the other TV.

Gardner "lost his job" is a lie, he fractured bones in his finger... or is the tweet above a lie?

And yeah, TD's and stats are irrelevant... and so is a terrible O-Line, weapons, defense, special teams and coaching surrounding him. Cam sucks because his weapons suck... but Minshew whose stats are substantially better is only on a losing team because he sucks.

Drew Brees led the NFL in passing in 2016, his defense was ranked 32nd in the NFL, his team went 7-9... maybe Drew didn't try hard enough or have enough talent. Good grief...

A great QB makes everything better, that's why Andrew Luck went to Oslo to inject stem cells into his shoulder and is now retired.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Lawrence and fields will be long off the board by the time we pick.

lance, jones, Wilson and trask I have with a third round grade.

when looking over the college landscape, the guy that catches my eye as a guy with pro size, arm strength, athleticism and tons of intangibles is ridder of cincy. I see ridder as jimmy g part 2.

Can we coach him up on decision making and accuracy?

How about the guy Jake Dolegala on our practice squad. He is a project but can he emerge?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

How about the guy Jake Dolegala on our practice squad. He is a project but can he emerge?

The odds aren't in his favor.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Rounds where NFL starting QBs were drafted.

AFCE
1 Allen
1 Tagliabue
1 Newton
1 Darnold

AFCN
1 Ben - HOF
1 Mayfield
1 Jackson
1 Burrows

AFCS
1 Tannehill
1 Watson
1 Rivers
6 Minschew

AFCW
1 Mahomes - HOF yeah its early, but I do not see another team playing that good of football.
1 Carr
1 Herbert
2 Lock

14 - 1st round QBs To do it over, I would only not choose Darnold by what we know today.
1 - 6th round QB
1 - 2nd round QB


NFCE
1 Smith
1 Jones
4 Prescott
1 Wentz

NFCN
1 Rodgers - HOF
4 Cousins
1 Stafford
1 Tribisky

NFCS
2 Brees - HOF
6 Brady - HOF
1 Ryan
1 Bridgewater

NFCW
3 Wilson - HOF
1 Goff
1 Murray
2 Jimmy

10 - 1st round QBs taken. To do it over I would only not choose Jones, Wentz, Tribisky, Bridgewater by what we know today.
2 - 2nd round QBs taken. Im no fan of Jimmy, but he is serviceable enough to win a Super Bowl.
1 - 3rd round QB taken. HOF bound.
2 - 4th round QBs taken.
1 - 6th round QB taken. GOAT never happen again.

24 - 1st round QBs taken and 5 were misses IMO.

This is nice analysis. I wonder if it applies to Belichick though. He gets random pro bowlers at dback and can turn low picks into good WRs. I hear you on the general analysis for QBs but I also think we need a stud DE/DT. There's a great class of DLineman. I'd rather load up on D and also I have less trust in offensive skill picks with this staff.

 

[Addictive]

This is nice analysis. I wonder if it applies to Belichick though. He gets random pro bowlers at dback and can turn low picks into good WRs. I hear you on the general analysis for QBs but I also think we need a stud DE/DT. There's a great class of DLineman. I'd rather load up on D and also I have less trust in offensive skill picks with this staff.

Bill is at his best building through the Lines - it's still the best way to build the foundation on both sides of the game. Like you said I trust Bill much more on drafting Defence.

They have to be formulating a plan now for targeting a particular QB in free agency or the draft and surround him with WRs. I have some sympathy for Cam the difficulties this season but I also don't want him to be the Patriots QB next season. It's a passing league and Cam has shown his technique is not close to being a championship winning QB. He excels at rushing but his style of play could end his season on any play.

I think we'll be really competitive next season and possibly win the AFC East but we need some game changers not currently on the roster.

 

[PATSNUTme]

Mac Jones in the 2nd. After Lawrence he seems to be the most NFL ready to my eyes.

 

[fightingirish595]

While it is true that most starting worthy QBs were selected in the first round, it is also true that there have been many first round QBs that did not work out. No team should box itself into a 'we have to draft a QB in the first round' mentality. If the opportunity presents itself to draft a QB on Day One then go for it - but if not, wait until 2022. There are more than enough other positions that also need attention on this roster; no need to make a reach with that pick.

Quarterbacks drafted within the top 100 picks over the last ten years:

2019
1.1 -- Kyler Murray
1.6 -- Daniel Jones
1.15 - Dwayne Haskins
2.42 - Drew Lock
3.100 - Will Grier

2018
1.1 -- Baker Mayfield
1.3 -- Sam Darnold
1.7 -- Josh Allen
1.10 - Josh Rosen
1.32 - Lamar Jackson
3.76 - Mason Rudolph

2017
1.2 -- Mitch Trubisky
1.10 - Patrick Mahomes
1.12 - Deshaun Watson
2.52 - DeShone Kizer
3.87 - Davis Webb

2016
1.1 -- Jared Goff
1.2 -- Carson Wentz
1.26 - Paxton Lynch
2.51 - Christian Hackenburg
3.91 - Jacoby Brissett
3.93 - Cody Kessler

2015
1.1 -- Jameis Winston
1.2 -- Marcus Mariota
3.75 - Garrett Grayson
3.89 - Sean Mannion

2014
1.3 -- Blake Bortles
1.22 - Johnny Manziel
1.32 - Teddy Bridgewater
2.36 - Derek Carr
2.62 - Jimmy Garoppolo

2013
1.16 - EJ Manuel
2.39 - Geno Smith
3.73 - Mike Glennon
4.98 - Matt Barkley

2012
1.1 -- Andrew Luck
1.2 -- Robert Griffin
1.8 -- Ryan Tannehill
1.22 - Brandon Weeden
2.57 - Brock Osweiler
3.75 - Russell Wilson
3.88 - Nick Foles

2011
1.1 -- Cam Newton
1.8 -- Jake Locker
1.10 - Blaine Gabbert
1.12 - Christian Ponder
2.35 - Andy Dalton
2.36 - Colin Kaepernick
3.74 - Ryan Mallett

2010
1.1 -- Sam Bradford
1.25 - Tim Tebow
2.48 - Jimmy Clausen
3.85 - Colt McCoy

Even when looking at strictly the first round selections, teams are 'missing' (ie, not worthy of being more than a backup) about twice as often as hitting with one of those picks.

What’s the miss rate of QBs taken in rounds 2-7 compared to round 1. That’s what you need to look at

 

[jmt57]

What’s the miss rate of QBs taken in rounds 2-7 compared to round 1. That’s what you need to look at

Before going through that exercise, I would presume the miss rate gets higher and higher each round.

My point is that if you are unable to move up and land a quality quarterback in 2021, try to set yourself up to do so in 2022. Don't reach for a QB because you feel that you can't wait, that you are compelled to use a first on a QB right now. Using a first on a QB is not a sure fire thing, make sure you get it right.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

My point is that if you are unable to move up and land a quality quarterback in 2021, try to set yourself up to do so in 2022.

Is it a large deep QB class in 2022?

 

[jmt57]

Is it a large deep QB class in 2022?

In another QB thread I had that same question, so I reached out to a couple draft forum members that follow college prospects closely. Apparently the answer is yes.

Realistic 2021 QB Poll

I would trust Brissett or Dalton over Cam. Cam's arm is cooked. He's doing his best out there and being a smart QB but the arm isn't there, he's Matt Cassel with better wheels. I honestly expect him to retire.

www.patsfans.com

These next two years have a good amount talent. Probably 8-10 1st round prospects. Lots of young talent, might be a little drought in terms of depth from 23-24. I think both are similar tbh. Big prizes in Lawrence & Rattler. Then in 2021 guys like Wilson, Lance, Fields and a bunch of guys who could wait until 2022. Jones, Ridder, Strong, Corral Etc. So 2022 could be special. You got Rattler who looks like Kyler Murray's brother at times. He could be great. Then Howell, Slovis, etc who have all flashed, produced & looked outstanding at times. 2022 looks legit and actually could be very deep. A guy like Ridder could come back. Carson Strong who I think we'll like, he could come out this year. Jurkovec. Penix another guy I think we'll like but got hurt this year. Gunnell.​

​

Lawrence is the big prize so some might automatically give 2021 the nod and it's great but 2022 could be filthy good.​

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

In another QB thread I had that same question, so I reached out to a couple draft forum members that follow college prospects closely. Apparently the answer is yes.

Realistic 2021 QB Poll

I would trust Brissett or Dalton over Cam. Cam's arm is cooked. He's doing his best out there and being a smart QB but the arm isn't there, he's Matt Cassel with better wheels. I honestly expect him to retire.

www.patsfans.com

These next two years have a good amount talent. Probably 8-10 1st round prospects. Lots of young talent, might be a little drought in terms of depth from 23-24. I think both are similar tbh. Big prizes in Lawrence & Rattler. Then in 2021 guys like Wilson, Lance, Fields and a bunch of guys who could wait until 2022. Jones, Ridder, Strong, Corral Etc. So 2022 could be special. You got Rattler who looks like Kyler Murray's brother at times. He could be great. Then Howell, Slovis, etc who have all flashed, produced & looked outstanding at times. 2022 looks legit and actually could be very deep. A guy like Ridder could come back. Carson Strong who I think we'll like, he could come out this year. Jurkovec. Penix another guy I think we'll like but got hurt this year. Gunnell.​

​

Lawrence is the big prize so some might automatically give 2021 the nod and it's great but 2022 could be filthy good.​

Thanks. Great post.

I would add if 2021 and 2022 are both deep, then 2021 will fill a lot of the QB holes and better prospects will fall in 2022 due to less demand.

But a 2022 prospect will not be ready until 2023. A 2 year wait.

I am still hopeful that BB is being super careful with Stidham and holding him back so he does not lose confidence when he gets his chance. The other option is that he stinks. What points to him not sucking? 1. They brought in Jed Fisch as a QB coach to work with him. 2. Everyone 100% agrees he is a natural thrower. 3. Last week McDaniels and Fisch both regurgitated typical "Pats speak" about getting better but has room for improvement. That is what Pats coaches say about a prospect they like.

Why do I hope Stidham is good? 1. It solves the QB in the short term. 2. It allows us to go DE/DL with our first pick in 2021. We can fill a few holes in FA, but still need a dominant DLine. 3. Stidham is a natural thrower and can make the "tight window" dink and dunk passes at a high % which is needed in an offense that requires more shorter passes versus fewer longer passes.

 

[moosekill]

19 out of 24 hits on 1st round qbs is pretty impressive. Gives me hope but then again a first round qb would be unprecedented under bb

This isn't correct. Of the 24 1st round qb's still in the league and starting, 19 of them are hits. Without listing how many qb's were taken in the first round over the past 20 years, we can't really say how many hits you have. You can only draw the conclusion that most starting qb's in the league were drafted in the first round.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

This isn't correct. Of the 24 1st round qb's still in the league and starting, 19 of them are hits. Without listing how many qb's were taken in the first round over the past 20 years, we can't really say how many hits you have. You can only draw the conclusion that most starting qb's in the league were drafted in the first round.

I see, misinterpreted the op. Knew it sounded too high lol

 

[moosekill]

I see, misinterpreted the op. Knew it sounded too high lol

Yes, it would be the same as saying the GOAT qb was drafted in the 7th round, therefore you should only draft qb's in the 7th round.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

How about the guy Jake Dolegala on our practice squad. He is a project but can he emerge?

i have him as just a jag.

 

[lancerman]

Mac Jones in the 2nd. After Lawrence he seems to be the most NFL ready to my eyes.

Won’t be there. Broncos want him according to the reporter who got the last 5 drafts right in the Denver area. They are ahead of us in the 1st and 2nd round

 

[A Defiant Goose]

Which GM assembled the dynamic trio of Hoyer, Stidham, and Can't

Stop trying to make "Can't" happen it's not going to happen

 

[A Defiant Goose]

Uh, what? Minshew isn’t good at all and lost his starting job to a late round rookie and now Mike Glennon. They’ll definitely be taking a QB. Hopefully they screw it up though and draft Fields.

Wait QBs lose their jobs in Jacksonville for being bad? Odd concept

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Wait QBs lose their jobs in Jacksonville for being bad? Odd concept

I thought that was why they installed a turnstile in the Jacksonville qb room instead of a door.

 

[lancerman]

Wait QBs lose their jobs in Jacksonville for being bad? Odd concept

The Jaguars went 6-10 and are now 1-12 since Minshew has been on the team. They also have an older and more experienced back up.

Here we are 6-7 and likely to have a better record than they ever had with Minshew, the current starter is the vet, and the back up has not looked good when he got a chance