Texans @ Patriots, pregame analysis

[SammyBlueCat]

It will be interesting to see if Hollister is dressed on Sunday. I really want to see him and Gronk in the formations. I see alot of dinking and dunking when we have the Football on Offense. Hope our RB's don't get beat up too much. Other than Gronk the question is do we have any other Explosive Players on Offense?

You must crave Cat like quickness. I believe it is possible that we shall see it from Dorsett or Patterson.

 

[mcmurtry86]

Hightower
Clayborn
Shelton
Rivers

That upgrades 4 roles on the front 6 and probably all 6 because others were forced out of their best position.

We have no idea what Rivers will offer, he could be another Crable or Bequette

Shelton will improve Branch, simply can't be worse but he's coming off a fairly mediocre year so how much of an upgrade remains to be seen.

Clayborn I think is getting overrated by a lot of fans. He's useful but not a great pass rusher. Last 3 years, he has 45 games played. In one game he had 6 sacks. In the other 44 he had a total of 10.5. I think he ends up getting 4-5 sacks and a modest amount of hurries. Expecting a big pass rush presence from him is setting yourself up for disappontnent

Is the front 7 better? Can't be much worse than last year. Whether or not it's actually good remains to be seen though and plenty of reason for skepticism

 

[PScottman]

Clayborn I think is getting overrated by a lot of fans.

I would offer I think he'll do well in the Patriots methodology. "Well" being near double digit sacks, good edge setting, a lot of pressures - the typical veteran free agent DE stats they tend to get.

 

[fnordcircle]

What drop? Butler was a mediocre player last year. Gave up 800 yards and 10 TD.

After Gilmore turned it around it felt like a vocal contingent went from *****ing about him to *****ing about Butler. Then when Butler left it was like he was the 2nd coming.

Butler was solid, rarely beat but got victimized by some great plays despite being in good position. I think the drop off from Butler to Rowe is there but not as big as the improvement we've seen from Gilmore who might be a top 5 CB in this league now. That plus the removal of Richards and some intriguing prospects in JC Jackson and Crossen has me hopeful for an overall improved unit.

 

[PatriotsNumero1Fan]

What drop? Butler was a mediocre player last year. Gave up 800 yards and 10 TD.

I seemed to remember playing a good second half against the jags and he was solid against the titans.

 

[captain stone]

Justin.

Reid.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Justin.

Reid.

After all this time why are you finally mentioning Justin Reid? Late on the button again. Must be slowing down in your old age.

 

[Deus Irae]

I would offer I think he'll do well in the Patriots methodology. "Well" being near double digit sacks, good edge setting, a lot of pressures - the typical veteran free agent DE stats they tend to get.

In 2017, Claiborne had a game where he was lined up against a backup left tackle who was absolute garbage. In that game, Claiborne racked up 6 sacks.

He has registered 24 sacks total in his other 80 games played. In his last 45 games, not counting that 6 sack performance, he has registered 11 total sacks. So, you're welcome to guess whatever number of sacks you wish, but don't be shocked when/if he comes in comfortably below that expected number. Historically, when you remove the outlier game, he racks up sacks at the pace of about 1 every 4 games.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Is the front 7 better? Can't be much worse than last year. Whether or not it's actually good remains to be seen though and plenty of reason for skepticism

I note that Wise and Butler are in their second year and I think we will see both improve. Also Davis is not really a rookie having been around for 1 year already. I think there are no superstars but 8 to 10 solid guys, so we should have a rotation without a big dropoff that keeps them fresh.

 

[TomPatriot]

In 2017, Claiborne had a game where he was lined up against a backup left tackle who was absolute garbage. In that game, Claiborne racked up 6 sacks.

He has registered 24 sacks total in his other 80 games played. In his last 45 games, not counting that 6 sack performance, he has registered 11 total sacks. So, you're welcome to guess whatever number of sacks you wish, but don't be shocked when/if he comes in comfortably below that expected number. Historically, when you remove the outlier game, he racks up sacks at the pace of about 1 every 4 games.

Sacks are a poor measure of pass rushing performance. Pressures or hurries are better. Clayborn had 43 pressures outside of the Dallas game. That’s not elite but it’s pretty good.

 

[maineman209]

I think we have the potential to be deeper, IF Jason can adapt to S enough to play better than Richards (seems like a low bar, but nothing is guaranteed), and the young kids develop. I don't think anyone (including Rowe) will be a better top end talent than Butler, but hopefully they're all better than Bademosi if we have to sustain an injury.

I don't think that JMac is a direct replacement for Richards.

Richards' role was mostly used as an extra in-the-box guy. I'm guessing that JMac will backup deep safety, keeping everything in front of him, and that Harmon will back up Chung and be the 4th safety, in-the-box, when necessary.

Just to be clear, I'm saying not that the starting roles will change. DMac is still the primary deep safety, with Chung as primary SS, and with Harmon continuing as the nickel safety in either a deep-coverage role or up in the box, as the situation requires. If Chung gets hurt, Harmon is his replacement instead of Richards, and JMac takes a deep-coverage role in the nickel with DMac moving up closer to the line.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Sacks are a poor measure of pass rushing performance. Pressures or hurries are better. Clayborn had 43 pressures outside of the Dallas game. That’s not elite but it’s pretty good.

I agree. BB does not pay elite guys but he always uses up all of the cap. That is because he pays for more above average guys, not elite guys who are expensive combined with lower paid guys. Seems to work. There are always above average guys around because other teams are looking for the elite.

 

[BTTA]

I agree. BB does not pay elite guys but he always uses up all of the cap. That is because he pays for more above average guys, not elite guys who are expensive combined with lower paid guys. Seems to work. There are always above average guys around because other teams are looking for the elite.

This is true in relation to the other teams, but not as an absolute. There are elite guys on both sides of the ball getting paid as elite guys. Just not as many (perhaps...would like to see real data there).

 

[WaterfallJumper]

This is true in relation to the other teams, but not as an absolute. There are elite guys on both sides of the ball getting paid as elite guys. Just not as many (perhaps...would like to see real data there).

Clayborn has the 8th highest cap hit. You can compare cap percentages against other teams.

New England Patriots 2018 Salary Cap

 

[RobertWeathers]

I agree. BB does not pay elite guys but he always uses up all of the cap. That is because he pays for more above average guys, not elite guys who are expensive combined with lower paid guys. Seems to work. There are always above average guys around because other teams are looking for the elite.

He plays elite $ for elite players he feels are worth it. Cannon, DMc, Mason, Brady, Gilmore, Mankins, VW, etc

The difference here is he doesn't pay elite $ to everyone.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I don't think that JMac is a direct replacement for Richards.

Richards' role was mostly used as an extra in-the-box guy. I'm guessing that JMac will backup deep safety, keeping everything in front of him, and that Harmon will back up Chung and be the 4th safety, in-the-box, when necessary.

Just to be clear, I'm saying not that the starting roles will change. DMac is still the primary deep safety, with Chung as primary SS, and with Harmon continuing as the nickel safety in either a deep-coverage role or up in the box, as the situation requires. If Chung gets hurt, Harmon is his replacement instead of Richards, and JMac takes a deep-coverage role in the nickel with DMac moving up closer to the line.

If Chung goes down, based on the situation I see the scenario of Grigsby and Jason combining to filling that vacancy.

 

[Triumph]

How is the front 7 much better?

Danny Shelton. It all begins and ends controlling the A gaps.

This defense will be better despite Malc Brown.

 

[Triumph]

The front 7 could be better, and most of us hope that it is (we do have a few fans of other teams on the board). It could, though likely won't, be worse. But anyone making an absolute claim that it will definitely be better is a fool.

The D will be better. At least the run D which was 31st and one of the worst in the NFL. I do not mean 30th or 29th, but respectable again.

You dont get Shelton for no reason. He came from the Browns 4th ranked run D in 2017.

 

[Triumph]

The game boils down to 1 person.

No, not Brady or Belichick, Hopkins, Watson, McDaniels and Hightower. Not Alex Guerrero.

The true GOAT - Mr JJ Watt.

 

[Sicilian]

I don't think that JMac is a direct replacement for Richards.

Richards' role was mostly used as an extra in-the-box guy. I'm guessing that JMac will backup deep safety, keeping everything in front of him, and that Harmon will back up Chung and be the 4th safety, in-the-box, when necessary.

Just to be clear, I'm saying not that the starting roles will change. DMac is still the primary deep safety, with Chung as primary SS, and with Harmon continuing as the nickel safety in either a deep-coverage role or up in the box, as the situation requires. If Chung gets hurt, Harmon is his replacement instead of Richards, and JMac takes a deep-coverage role in the nickel with DMac moving up closer to the line.

I don't think it's a direct replacement either, just that the more options we have amongst the safeties, corners, and linebackers, the less likely we'll a Richards type (ST player who shouldn't be seeing extended defensive snaps) forced to play.

Assuming Butler played (not trying to hash up that argument again, but just for comparison), in the Super Bowl we would have had:

CB:
Gilmore
Butler
Rowe
Bademosi

S:
McCourty
Chung
Harmon
Richards

Now to start this year, we have:

CB:
Gilmore
Rowe
J. Jones
JC Jackson
Keion Crossen

S:
D. McCourty
Chung
Harmon
J. McCourty

So at corner, Rowe is a step down from Butler as a CB2. Butler had a down year compared to 2016, but is still better overall than Rowe until Rowe can prove he can do it healthy for a full season. But I think J. Jones is a step UP from anyone we had in the slot last year. So a step down at one DB position, a step up at another. The key will be if Jackson and Crossen can develop, and both are better than Bademosi, then the depth will be better. Again, top talent takes a hit, but depth improves.

At S, it's basically the same, but J-Mc is a better defender than Richards (in theory). He may not play the exact role, but I'd feel more comfortable with him as the nickel or dime DB rather than Richards, regardless of what the overall philosophy is trying to accomplish.

If you want to be pessimistic (not you specifically, talking to the general audience now), you could wonder what will happen if Rowe gets hurt, none of the rookies contribute, the veterans at S get old, and Jason never "gets it". I prefer to be optimistic at the beginning of the season and see the ways we could improve, because that's more fun to me. I don't have a crippling fear of disappointment if I don't try to be "realistic" at every turn and prepare myself for the worst.